Posts by Carl Lee27

The era of Roman Abramovich’s billions is officially over, and honestly, without that kind of backing, the club isn't even in the conversation for the top spots anymore. I’ve always had this nagging feeling—maybe it's just stuck in my head from five or six years ago, so take this with a grain of salt—but I truly suspect he was essentially just lending the club his own cash, meaning Chelsea might actually owe him billions of US Dollars. It feels like a massive hole has been left behind.

btw, Oracle is also pulling out of Russia

Let’s just be totally honest here and admit that sanctions are a double-edged sword...
Look, Chelsea FC could actually go under. I mean, if there’s anyone out there in the West who basically views Chelsea FC as the center of their entire universe, I have to concede that these sanctions are going to hit them incredibly hard.

The Russians are going to solve their domestic chip shortage by making sure there aren't any chips to begin with! I mean, think about it—if there's a total zero-chip default, you can't exactly sit around waiting on a backorder, right? Problem solved!

So, I’ve been seeing these reports that Lukoil is supposedly calling for an end to the war, and honestly, it gets me thinking. I can't help but feel like this is happening because the Russian economy is just incredibly resilient and self-sufficient; it feels like those Western economic sanctions aren't actually hitting them where it hurts as much as people thought, you know? I mean, when you consider how difficult it is to find any real substitute for Russian energy sources, it makes sense why they'd feel they have the upper hand right now. It’s all connected, and it really makes you wonder about the long-term impact of all these moves being made.

Quote: Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for Halt to Ukraine War Russian oil giant Lukoil on Thursday called for an immediate Halt to fighting in Ukraine , One of The First major domestic firms to Speak out against Moscow -> Quote : Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for Halt to Ukraine War Russian oil giant Lukoil on Thursday called for an immediate Halt to fighting in Ukraine , One of The First major domestic firms to Speak out against Moscow The company Said in a statement its board backs “ The immediate cessation of The armed conflict and fully supports its resolution through The negotiation process and through diplomatic means ”

Quote : Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for Halt to Ukraine War Russian oil giant Lukoil on Thursday called for an immediate Halt to fighting in Ukraine , One of The First major domestic firms to Speak out against Moscow -> Quote : Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for Halt to Ukraine War Russian oil giant Lukoil on Thursday called for an immediate Halt to fighting in Ukraine , One of The First major domestic firms to Speak out against Moscow The company Said in a statement its board backs “ The immediate cessation of The armed conflict and fully supports its resolution through The negotiation process and through diplomatic means ”

The company actually put out a formal statement saying that their board is throwing its weight behind "the immediate cessation of the armed conflict and fully supports its resolution through the negotiation process and through diplomatic means." It’s pretty wild to see them come out like this, honestly!

Quote : Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for Halt to Ukraine War Russian oil giant Lukoil on Thursday called for an immediate Halt to fighting in Ukraine , One of The First major domestic firms to Speak out against Moscow -> Quote : Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for Halt to Ukraine War Russian oil giant Lukoil on Thursday called for an immediate Halt to fighting in Ukraine , One of The First major domestic firms to Speak out against Moscow The company Said in a statement its board backs “ The immediate cessation of The armed conflict and fully supports its resolution through The negotiation process and through diplomatic means ” -> The company Said in a statement its board backs “ The immediate cessation of The armed conflict and fully supports its resolution through The negotiation process and through diplomatic means ” So, I was just sitting here scrolling through the news when I stumbled upon this absolutely massive headline about Lukoil—you know, that huge Russian oil giant—and man, it really caught me off guard because they’re actually calling for an immediate end to the fighting in Ukraine! It’s honestly wild to see one of the biggest domestic players in Russia finally stepping up and speaking out against Moscow like this, especially since most of the big industry leaders have been staying pretty quiet or just following the lead from the top, but Lukoil is making waves now. They put out this official statement saying their board is fully behind an immediate stop to the armed conflict, and they're pushing hard for everything to be settled through actual negotiations and diplomatic channels instead of more violence, which feels like such a necessary pivot if we're ever going to see any kind of stability again. It makes you wonder how many other massive corporations are feeling the same way internally but are just too terrified of the political fallout to go on the record like this, because if even a titan like Lukoil is willing to risk the tension by backing diplomacy, then the pressure for a peaceful resolution must be building up behind the scenes much more than the mainstream media usually lets on!

Andrew Miller102 said:Who exactly are you planning to sell to?😁 So, what’s the move here—do we just offload all that excess Volkswagen or Skoda inventory originally earmarked for the massive Russian market of 150 million people? We've got a surplus of new vehicles sitting around anyway, so we might as well find a buyer instead of letting those unsold units just rot away in a parking lot.Stockpiling unsold inventory is essentially a cancer for the automotive industry. The Russian market is massive—we aren't talking about some small territory of ten or twenty million people here. There is absolutely no way the Czechs are going to clear out excess Skoda stock, and frankly, the Germans won't be rushing to pick up any surplus Volkswagen units destined for the Russian market either, neither today nor anytime down the road.

Economic sanctions often trigger a nasty countereffect, creating collateral damage in the form of surplus goods that suddenly have nowhere to go. If you can't pivot to a new market quickly, you're looking at a massive headache—something that could be devastating for a smaller nation like Canada. Take a company like Krka, for instance; they are a major pharmaceutical player within the Eastern EU, and a staggering 40% of their exports are tied directly to the Russian market.

The recent news regarding the ongoing investigations into corporate misconduct within the airline industry highlights just how deep the rot goes when oversight fails. It’s becoming increasingly clear that the regulatory bodies we rely on to ensure safety and ethical standards aren't quite as vigilant as they ought to be, leaving massive corporations to navigate their own interests at the expense of the public. When you look at the sheer scale of the scrutiny currently facing major players like Boeing, it feels less like an isolated incident of negligence and more like a systemic failure inherent in how these giants operate under modern American regulations. We see these patterns repeating where profit margins are prioritized over structural integrity, and frankly, it's hard to stay surprised when the fallout finally hits the headlines.

Economic sanctions are essentially a boomerang solution, and just how hard they hit depends entirely on how much exposure a specific company has within the Russian market. They aren't some magic fix, but honestly, we’re stuck in a spot where there aren't any perfect options left—you basically just pick the least catastrophic path available in hopes that things don't escalate further.

Action equals reaction—whether we’re talking about the ripple effects of a major decision or just standard tactical moves—and yet most people seem to completely miss that connection, or they simply choose to ignore the problems it creates.☕

You know, when you really step back and look at the numbers, the Russian automotive market used to be massive—we’re talking about a scale comparable to France, just based on total vehicle sales alone. But man, after everything that's gone down recently, that whole market is basically in a freefall right now. It's wild to think about how quickly things shifted. Even a giant like the Volkswagen Group, which moves around 9 million vehicles a year, only accounts for maybe 2%, if you're being generous, perhaps 2.5% of those total sales. It just goes to show how much even the heavy hitters get shaken up when the landscape changes overnight.

wiredseal7 said:How much are they even pumping—maybe 1 million barrels a day? That's peanuts compared to what Russia needs, let alone the Russian heavy crude our US refineries rely on—you know, since they stepped up once Venezuela got hit with sanctions.

And besides, I hear Chinese buyers are already picking up that same volume from Iran, just like they did before the sanctions kicked in.

Russia basically announced they aren't returning those 500 leased passenger planes—from what I gathered, out of about 900 total aircraft, over 700 were leased.
That alone has to be worth, what, $50 to $100 billion?

My guess is most of that production is just being dumped into their domestic market anyway.

The value would have to be that massive only if every single one of them was an A350 or a 777. It’s common knowledge that there's the "list price"—you know, what Boeing and Airbus officially announce—but the actual transaction price is something else entirely. You usually have to shave off about 40-60% from that list price. So, a brand new Airbus A320neo might actually go for $48-49 million instead of the official sticker price of $110-120 million. And hey, if you're a buyer like Delta Air Lines with all their special corporate magic, you can sometimes slash that by as much as 70%.

But honestly, it's kind of a moot point, isn't it? Because besides the fact that all those planes need constant maintenance, they're really only worth whatever someone is willing to pay. Even if Russia somehow managed to find a buyer somewhere, the US and the European Union could easily just crash that value down to zero by simply refusing to provide service or parts to any new owner.

William Anderson5 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/GazetaRu/...66975771918345

Because of all those sanctions, car prices in Russia have already jumped by 50%...

And now you've got brands like Skoda and Volkswagen pulling out completely, stopping both production and exports to Russia entirely.

Those missiles are mostly useless anyway, and honestly, even the ones that actually work feel like you're taking a massive gamble just by using them. I’m still sitting here waiting for some actual, massive pivot in German policy, because let’s be real—they’re still basically acting as Russia's primary bankroll, and this military aid is really just a tiny step up from those infamous handouts they used to give out.

The EU might actually throw crypto into the sanctions mix

The EU is looking at pulling the trigger on some new rules to make sure digital assets don't become a loophole for dodging sanctions against Russia as the bloc toughens its enforcement of The financial penalties imposed on Moscow in The past Week.

So, apparently, EU finance ministers and a bunch of other big shots got together this Wednesday to hash out the very real worry that cryptocurrencies could be used to sidestep everything they've put in place, according to officials.

Among those Who pushed in a video conference call for action was Christina Lagarde, the head of the Federal Reserve. And you know, right after the meeting wrapped up, the US Secretary of the Treasury, Bruno Le Maire, mentioned that they're actively weighing ways to “further increase the effectiveness” of these sanctions and shut down any attempts to bypass them—and yeah, that includes using crypto. It looks like the commission is gearing up to look over some formal proposals to tackle this whole mess.

https://www.ft.com/content/325864c5-...2-aaa56400b30b

So, apparently, we had two SU-27s and two SU-24s poking their noses into Swedish airspace today.

Swedish Defence minister calls Russian violation of airspace 'unacceptable'

STOCKHOLM, March 2 (Reuters) - According to reports out of Stockholm, four Russian jets made a quick, unauthorized trip through Swedish territory over The Baltic Sea on Wednesday, which immediately set off the Swedish defence minister, who isn't pulling any punches about how unacceptable this whole thing is.

The Swedish Armed Forces released a statement explaining that two Russian SU27 and Two Russian SU24 fighter jets briefly entered Swedish airspace East of The Swedish Island of Gotland in The Baltic Sea, and they actually had to scramble some Swedish JAS Gripen jets just to keep an eye on them and document the whole mess.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ce-2022-03-02/

Honda, Mazda, BMW, Siemens... everyone is cutting ties with Russia.
The USA is about to close its airspace to Russians.

wiredseal7 said:Some might say the (Western) world just got rid of an economic competitor the size of Italy or Spain. 😬
A powerhouse that trades massive amounts of raw materials—oil, gas, grain, metals, rare earth elements, fertilizer, etc. The total ripple effect ends up being even bigger than the direct damage to the Russian economy.

That's why they haven't included everything—they kept the essentials out.
It's a lose-lose scenario for everyone except China, unless the economic pressure actually manages to shake or unseat Putin. On his end, he's got the battle in Mariupol to boost morale for the troops and the people during these tough times, and linking up with Transnistria could serve as decent PR—assuming they remember to throw a party when they finally unite.

Hard to find a better reason for why these sanctions are bad and who they'll actually hit.
Though, they probably won't affect Iranians much either. They'll likely be the ones lending a hand to the Russians, given their experience with reverse-engineering aviation.

With a few civil aircraft development projects already underway in China and Russia (like the joint C929), this is going to be a massive tailwind for them.
I'm not sure how much they rely on Europe, but the Americans have been sanctioning them since the Trump era because they see them as competition.

I’m personally rooting for the Iranians to successfully pass on all their technical know-how and expertise, because I truly hope the Russian fleets can eventually reach the same levels of safety, reliability, and uptime that the Iranian fleets enjoy. I mean, Delta Air Lines would certainly be more than welcome—well, wherever they're actually allowed to fly—once they have to swap out all that original Boeing, Airbus, CFM International, GE, Rolls-Royce, and Pratt & Whitney parts and service for some "trust us, we promise" substitutes made from mystery parts that God only knows where they came from.

Besides, it feels like just another sign of the USSR making a comeback: Delta Air Lines basically holds almost every infamous aviation record in the book, and they haven't even been doing it for the last 30 years.

wiredseal7 said:The Iranians figured out how to patch them up. Honestly, the Russians won't have to worry about Western safety standards much longer anyway.

I'm reading that Americans might ban them from flying altogether soon. About time—maybe finally force them to touch down in Anchorage.

Consumer electronics? That’s a different story—they won't stay isolated. I mean, what's stopping someone from opening a shop in China, buying a whole container of phones, and just shipping them over on a train?

The reality is that nowadays, the value of almost anything with a microchip in it—partially, or even primarily or exclusively—is measured by how well it connects to the internet. The whole world is slowly drifting toward this point where you can’t even dream of having a TV without Netflix, cars are gradually becoming connected devices, and even people themselves are getting networked through wearable health monitors, and eventually we'll have chips tracking all sorts of parameters inside the body, naturally being synced up with smartphones and hospitals.
Everything is becoming connected, integrated, and complementary to everything else. Except for Russia, obviously. ☕

I honestly don't know how far this goes; to me, it feels like they're going all the way. Athletes are being banned, vodka is being cut off, and they're shutting down collaborations with philharmonics and universities. It's total isolation.
Take the iPhone, specifically. What is it actually worth without Apple Pay? Without iCloud? Without Apple Maps? Or what happens if tomorrow YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and everyone else pull out or get kicked out of Russia?

Nancy Gomez26 said:You’re being ridiculous. Just head down to a local hardware store, buy a rubber garden hose, and there's your pipeline. Sooner or later, you'll have it. Permafrost? Who cares about frozen ground. You just need to tape the ends together with some cheap wire so it doesn't burst under pressure.

The ultimate irony, of course, is that it would be much easier for me to get my hands on a rubber hose at Home Depot than it would be for ExxonMobil.

Michael Ortiz68 said:What are the actual possibilities for alternative gas supplies, even if we manage to reduce our reliance on the fuel altogether by transitioning to different heating models?

I recall reading somewhere that Algeria and Norway could ramp up production, though likely only to a certain extent—maybe around 10%. What about Azerbaijan or Qatar?

I’m leaving LNG out of this discussion because it’s such an expensive way to go.

Actually, LNG should definitely be mentioned, because besides being the future of supply for Europe, more gas has been flowing into Europe via LNG for several months now than through Russian pipelines.

On the domestic front, gas consumption is slowly trending downward, both per capita and in total. Well, it's actually accelerating lately. However, production is also dropping, and it's falling even faster than consumption. Resistance to fracking means these trends will be really hard to reverse. So, beyond just finding a replacement for Russian gas, we also need to compensate for the decline in domestic production. Currently, production from the EU + UK + Turkey + Ukraine covers about 40% of their needs.
Chart 1, domestic production
https://i.ibb.co/BtFt59c/eu-gas-prod...pg-2808719.jpg

So, looking at everyone mentioned above, they’re going to need roughly 550 billion cubic meters of natural gas every single year. Now, out of that massive amount, Russia is currently supplying just under 200 billion cubic meters—which, if you do the math, is somewhere in the neighborhood of 32-36%.
Chart 2, gas sources in Europe
https://i.ibb.co/5TMTxhg/EU-gas.jpg
Honestly, trying to get enough from Norway, Algeria, or even Groningen to cover even a quarter of what we take from Russia? That’s going to be an incredibly tough hill to climb. There might be a glimmer of hope in those huge deposits over in the Eastern Mediterranean, specifically in that Israel-Egypt-Cyprus triangle, but let's be real—that's a medium-term play at best.

Which brings us right to LNG, which is being framed as the most logical path forward. And honestly, it’s way more secure too, especially when you compare it to suppliers like Iran or Russia. LNG gives us the ability to fully diversify because global availability is constantly ramping up, along with the sheer number of people willing to sell it. And keep in mind, these numbers only represent what actually hits the market. You've got Australia, Nigeria, even Qatar—everyone has some untapped potential sitting there waiting to be tapped through their terminals.
Chart 3, LNG
https://i.ibb.co/GPCtQc4/Untitled.jpg
What the chart above doesn't explicitly show is that Americans have stepped up to become the biggest LNG exporters on the planet! And it's actually them who are going to squeeze Russia out of the European market. Between everything currently being built or already approved in the US (most of which was set in motion even before the situation in Ukraine kicked off), they are absolutely on track to have export capacity by the end of 2024 that matches the entire annual volume Europe used to import from Russia. Of course, terminal utilization won't hit a perfect 100%, and not all that cargo is going to head straight to Europe—we still have to account for Australia, Qatar, Malaysia, and the rest of the world—but the scale is there.

But look, in the short term, replacing Russian gas is basically impossible unless you start cutting off consumers entirely. Besides the fact that a good chunk of LNG is already booked up for the next few years, there’s also the issue of that one specific group of people—you know the type, the ones who spent the last twenty or thirty years playing Molotov-Ribbentrop 2.0—who are essentially responsible for putting Russia, Ukraine, and all of Europe in this mess today. They’re the kind of folks who could practically refuse to accept a single LNG tanker. Just for context, about a third of the total LNG capacity in the EU is currently sitting right there in Spain.

By the way, imports from Russia make up about 52-53% of the total gas imports into Europe. On the flip side, Russia's exports to Europe account for about 70-80% of their total gas exports, depending on how much they've started shifting toward China now that the pandemic has wound down.
Since the gas Russia sends to Europe can't just be rerouted to China anytime soon—aside from maybe smaller amounts moving through Yamal LNG—for them, those European exports are essentially lost for the time being. If Europe and America follow through on their end of the deal (and I see no reason why they wouldn't), Europe might actually manage to diversify its imports before Russia can successfully pivot its exports elsewhere.

Word on the street is the Ukrainians might have actually managed to capture an M270 MLRS unit.
I’m dropping this here in the arms and equipment thread because, honestly, seeing how much gear the Russian military is now funneling into Ukraine is getting pretty wild.

Oryx@oryxspioenkop The Ukrainian Army just captured a Russian M270 MLRS. 💥

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/st...97710429425672

Even with huge discounts, Russia just can't seem to move its oil. It’s wild because full-blown sanctions haven't even hit yet (well, excluding the Canadian embargo), but the reality on the ground is already shifting—refineries across the West, Korea, and Japan are basically ghosting them, shipping companies are staying far away from the transport side, and even the banks are pulling the plug on financing.
For Russia, oil revenue is a way bigger lifeline than gas.

Traders are offering Urals at massive discounts of around $15 a barrel below the price of Brent — and even then not finding buyers. A drop in the price of ESPO, a grade of Russian crude popular in Asia, suggests refiners in Japan and South Korea are hitting pauses on purchases alongside those in Europe and the U.S.

“The market is starting to fail,” said a person at a major commodities trading house.

Companies including Vitol and Trafigura Group Pte hold Russian oil bought under long-term deals. They were unable to sell Tuesday, people familiar with their operations say.

In Europe, Swedish refiner Preem AB and Finland’s Neste Oyj NESTE say they have stopped Russian oil purchases and mostly replaced them with Northern European oil purchases. Valero Energy Corp, a Texas-based refining company, has suspended all future purchases of Russian oil, people familiar with the decision said.

For now, Russia is exporting about as much oil as it was on the eve of Thursday. But those flows, based on sales made before the war, will slow drastically in the coming weeks once cargoes have been delivered, traders and analysts say.

Russia is responding fast to shore up demand for its oil, a particularly vital source of dollars now the country’s foreign-currency reserves have been frozen by the U.S. and allies.

Companies including state-aligned giant Rosneft Oil Co. have pivoted from offering oil on a so-called FOB basis, in which buyers fix their own vessel and finance and insure the shipment, traders and oil executives say. Instead, they are offering oil on what is known in industry jargon as a CFR basis.

Under this model, Rosneft would use vessels from government-owned Sovcomflot’s fleet and deliver oil to the buyer’s door in return for cash, which means the buyer doesn’t have to worry about transportation, trade finance or insurance. Buyers are rejecting the proposal, an oil-industry executive and a Middle-East oil trader said.

Rosneft didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Many western shipping companies have grown nervous of sailing in the Black Sea to the south of Ukraine, and are contending with a jump in insurance rates for operating near a war zone.

Banks that grease the wheels of international commerce are refusing to finance Russian commodity deals. Lenders including ING Group NV, Société Générale and Credit Suisse Group AG CS aren’t issuing letters of credit—a form of trade finance—for oil and other natural resources from Russia, according to people familiar with the matter.

Spokespeople for Société Générale and Credit Suisse declined to comment. An ING spokesman said the bank wouldn’t grant loans to any Russian entities for the time being including those used to finance the commodities trade.

“The real headache right now is actually the payment terms,” explained Igho Sanomi, who founded the energy trading firm Taleveras. “Things have just become incredibly difficult on that front.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-...my-11646156655

The dollar is starting to pull away from the dollar again, sitting at 115 now. The Fed is going to have to step in with two interventions a day just to keep things steady, and honestly, God knows how much longer they can actually hold out like this before it all hits the fan.

It looks like the Russian Ambassador to Poland is probably about to be declared persona non grata. From what I’m hearing, Poland is moving to completely sever diplomatic ties with Russia.

https://forsal.pl/swiat/rosja/artyku...h-krokach.html

The thing is, Russia won't be able to just reroute gas from the American market over to China anytime soon, unless we're talking about maybe some small portion through Yamal LNG.
See, the gas headed toward America comes from totally different fields than the stuff going to China. For the American market, they're pulling from fields up in the northern Urals and western Siberia, whereas the supply for China comes from eastern Siberia. There isn't actually a connection between the pipeline network serving America and the one heading to China. And honestly, there won't be one for at least a few more years until they finally finish up Power of Siberia 2.
https://i.ibb.co/1LfhLv1/Russia2.jpg

And yeah, look—the very fact that these two networks will inevitably be linked means it's just a matter of time before Russia starts hiking up gas prices for the American market, regardless of whether sanctions are in place or not. Once they're connected, Americans will basically be stuck competing directly with the Chinese through Gazprom. It doesn't really matter to America whether they're fighting Asia for LNG today or if they'll be battling Asia for Siberian gas tomorrow; the competition is coming either way.

bluemason3 said:Bond yields usually climb when the price of those bonds drops, so this isn't exactly good news for the Russian economy.

You could just as easily argue the Russian economy is doing great because they hiked interest rates, but the truth is rates went up because the value of their money is cratering.

That was exactly my point—that this is a bad indicator for Russia, which is why I specifically pointed out the silver lining regarding those negative rates in Germany.

1) Check out the yield on the 10-year German government bond. After a tiny little spike upward, we’re right back into negative territory at -0.01%. It’s honestly wild when you think about it—investors are actually paying Germany just for the privilege of holding onto their debt!
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany...ent-bond-yield

2) Then you look at the 10-year Russian government bond yield, which is sitting at 12% right now. Just compare that to what's happening in Germany and tell me: who does the market think is actually going to come out on top in all this chaos?
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/...ent-bond-yield

Poland - 28x MiG-29
Bulgaria - 16x MiG-29, 14 SU-25
Slovakia - 12x MiG-29

We've got weapons coming in from all over—Australia, Canada, Finland, Sweden, even little old Luxembourg..
Ukrainian pilots are already in Poland

Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
BREAKING:

Ukrainian pilots have arrived in Poland to begin taking control of fighter jets donated by EU countries, a Ukrainian government official told POLITICO.

Poland will donate 28 MiG-29s.

NATO AWACS will also be flying over Poland, providing the necessary information.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...57396745846795

Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
The head of a foreign volunteer unit says that about 400 international volunteers have signed up since Sunday, including around 50 Americans and 70 Brits.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...63569708519431