Another 6.4 magnitude earthquake just hit. Over in Turkey, the death toll has officially climbed past 41,000, and from what I’m hearing, there are still so many people missing under the rubble. It’s just heartbreaking—you've got over a million people displaced, all living out of tents or staying in temporary shelters. The estimates are looking pretty grim, too, because they're going to have to rush to tear down a massive amount of damaged buildings before they can even think about rebuilding. Erdogan is promising that they'll get new homes and buildings up and running quickly, but man, the scale of this is just overwhelming. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.fra...ake-hit-region
Everything is relative, isn't it? First off, you have to look at how military budgets across Europe have been slashed lately. And let’s be real—back during the USSR days, both Europe and the USA were basically laser-focused on one thing: confronting them. Nowadays, though, the US is clearly pivoting its attention toward the Pacific Ocean and China, which naturally leaves more breathing room for the Russians. It's all about getting more bang for your buck; honestly, one dollar goes a lot further for them today than it ever did back then. And man, we can't even get into how much they’re still riding the coattails of the USSR! It’s not like Russia is just out there buying these massive tanks and heavy artillery from scratch today; most of that hardware is just the leftover legacy of those old Soviet billions. When you look at what's happening in Ukraine right now, for the most part, you aren't really seeing modern Russian wealth in action—you're looking at the ghost of the USSR.
It’s honestly pretty wild when you think about it—how the USSR actually managed to fall apart, especially since, by almost any metric you look at, it was sitting several rungs higher on the ladder than today's Russia. And man, that comment about how the West won't let it happen? That is just brilliant. It’s almost funny, really, because it’s as if Americans weren't already doing everything in their power to make sure the collapse of the USSR actually happened.
The death toll over in Turkey has officially climbed past 35,000 now... and they're looking at about 105,000 injured. It's just devastating. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...l/11253616002/
William Cooper11 said:Cutting back on oil production means they aren't making a dime on those five hundred thousand barrels they're leaving in the ground. Now, they’re basically gambling on whether a daily global shortage of that size will actually be enough to drive prices up. I don't see it happening.
See, I don't really view this as some big gamble; it feels more like they just physically can't move those 500k barrels if they tried. I mean, with China finally reopening, everyone is expecting demand to jump by something like 2 million barrels a day, so I'm struggling to see why these guys would even need to tighten the taps—unless, of course, they've already hit their absolute limit on what they can actually export.
Russia is cutting its oil production by 5%, which means we're looking at a drop of about 500k barrels a day https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...cut/index.html
GDP is really just a snapshot of a specific moment in time, you know? It doesn't actually tell you anything about long-term survival or whether a country can truly sustain itself over the long haul. As long as a nation has the means to fund its essential needs, it’ll find a way to make it work—right up until the moment they simply can't anymore. The US has liquid reserves sitting in the NWF and the Federal Reserve that equal at least 15% of our GDP. My guess? Most of that is going to be thrown straight into patching up holes in the budget. For the US, oil prices are the absolute dealbreaker here; nothing else matters as much as that. Everything else is just noise, like whether Sasha gets an extra bonus for more time on the front lines, or if some crook decides to take public subsidies meant for "building" a tire or airbag factory and instead uses it to just import those exact same things from China.
That 2.2% drop for last year? Honestly, that’s just an estimate. It feels like they’re dragging their feet on releasing the actual data because, if you look at all the indicators, things started taking a massive dive back in December. I was expecting the numbers to drop just yesterday! But look, it's pretty obvious what's happening: the private sector is shrinking fast, while government spending is spiking—which is basically why the overall GDP contraction looks so minimal. If anyone actually thinks this can keep going indefinitely, well, good luck to them, I guess.
I can already see new taxes on the horizon. Once the war in Ukraine escalates any further, those reserves are going to dry up incredibly fast. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...-report-a80172
Honestly, I don't think people truly grasp the sheer scale of this tragedy yet. We're talking about 6,000 buildings just leveled. From what I've been seeing, the death toll estimates are likely going to skyrocket way past the current official numbers once things settle. Just look at these drone shots... https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/stat...TtMGtgF3w&s=19 https://twitter.com/loztruthseeker/s...6WTM7kO7A&s=19
By the way, I really hope they didn't run into a massive meltdown like they did during the construction of the Ataturk dam.
It’s actually pretty wild when you dig into the numbers—it wasn't just the revenue from oil and gas exports that took a massive hit. If you look back at the data from January 2022, there was this huge, sweeping drop across basically every single revenue category in the federal budget compared to what we were seeing in January of the year before. We're talking about a staggering 28% decline across the board! It really puts things into perspective when you realize the whole fiscal picture was shifting like that. Honestly, if I were sitting in that central banker's chair right now, I’d probably start offloading tons of gold immediately. It looks like both silver and gold have officially started their downward slide, and man, things are looking shaky.
People aren't struggling because, with the help of the West, our natural resources are being stripped away and shipped off to those same folks who send the foreign currency back our way. And let’s be honest, the reason we haven't moved forward is that we take all that hard-earned cash and immediately dump it right back into the West to buy high-tech miracles that we can only dream of manufacturing ourselves! It’s this bizarre cycle where the people refuse to give up either side of the coin—we won't stop exporting our wealth, yet we won't stop importing their gadgets. But here's the kicker, the part that really gets me: at the exact same time, everyone is cheering for us to finally show the West some teeth and completely sever every single tie we have with them. It's such a wild contradiction, isn't it? Honestly, this behavior is just straight-up bizarre.
If you’re asking me for a prediction, I honestly believe we’re going to see Russia start looking more and more like North Korea. Now, don't get me wrong, they aren't ever going to be an exact carbon copy—Russia is just too massive, and they've had far too much exposure to Western influence over the centuries to completely sink that deep—but the trajectory is there. Just look at how South and North Korea stand today as two entirely different civilizations; from the perspective of an average person living in any neighboring country, Russia is going to seem increasingly bizarre, increasingly isolated, and just... strange. It’s going to feel like a totally different society. And just like what happened with North Korea, I suspect Russia’s policies—starting with their foreign affairs and eventually bleeding into their domestic life—are going to be increasingly dictated by Beijing. Of course, they’ll probably cling to some sort of local charm, because let's face it, every backwater corner of the world has its own unique set of headaches and absolute disasters, like an uncontrolled HIV epidemic or something along those lines. Speaking of which, while all the medical breakthroughs and life-saving miracles from the West have been "mercifully" exempted from sanctions, I have a sneaking suspicion that the real issue won't be availability, but actually being able to pay for it. I mean, unless someone in Russia seriously believes that Pfizer, Philips, Johnson & Johnson, and the rest of the gang are just handing out their products and services for free! You know, we’re stepping into a decade where the West is going to be pouring hundreds of billions of dollars every single year into research and treatments targeting, quite literally, the aging process itself. It's wild to think about. Meanwhile, over in Russia, they're heading into a decade where the pharmaceutical and medical sectors are going to find it harder and harder just to keep pace with what was standard back in the 20th century. Honestly, it's starting to look a lot like North Korea ☕
It really does look like they've dipped into some gold sales just to keep covering the deficit. My guess is the big buyers are mostly everyday citizens and banks. Honestly, right now, moving your savings into gold instead of holding onto the ruble feels like the only rational move left on the board. https://1prime-ru.translate.goog/sta...en&_x_tr_hl=X
Back in January, the Russian budget was already running a $25 billion deficit. And remember, that was *before* all the embargoes and the restrictions on oil derivatives really kicked in. They might have a little bit of breathing room left, but it’s coming, and it’s coming fast. The ruble is essentially living on borrowed time.
Carl Lee27 said:Man, you really have to look at these numbers because the budget revenue from oil and gas sales is absolutely cratering—we’re talking a massive 46% drop Year-over-Year! It's wild when you lay it out; back in January 2022, the budget was pulling in 795 billion rubles from those energy sales, but by January 2023, that figure had plummeted down to just 426 billion rubles. https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilpric...-Year.amp.html
And get this—the European Union's embargo on oil derivatives is officially kicking in this Sunday. It isn't just that the European Union is cutting off imports of these derivatives entirely; they’ve also hammered out a price cap for sales to third countries, which basically mirrors the restrictions already in place for crude oil. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...cts/index.html
It’s actually pretty wild when you dig into the numbers—it wasn't just the revenue from oil and gas exports that took a massive hit. If you look back at the data from January 2022, there was this huge, sweeping drop across basically every single revenue category in the federal budget compared to what we were seeing in January of the year before. We're talking about a staggering 28% decline across the board! It really puts things into perspective when you realize the whole fiscal picture was shifting like that. Honestly, if I were sitting in that central banker's chair right now, I’d probably start offloading tons of gold immediately. It looks like both silver and gold have officially started their downward slide, and man, things are looking shaky.
Bryan Booth82 said:The other day, I’m watching TV and there’s this former big shot from Siemens—a guy who apparently met with Putin three separate times, mind you. Now, Siemens does gas turbines, right? And this guy basically admits that when it comes to the economy, Russia has absolutely nothing to offer besides oil and gas...
It just hits me: are you kidding me? You’re sitting on all that gas, yet you can't even manufacture a decent damn turbine yourselves?🤔 Putin thought he could hold the European Union hostage by threatening to cut off the gas, but now he can't even guarantee the supply himself. What a joke.
Best,
People aren't struggling because, with the help of the West, our natural resources are being stripped away and shipped off to those same folks who send the foreign currency back our way. And let’s be honest, the reason we haven't moved forward is that we take all that hard-earned cash and immediately dump it right back into the West to buy high-tech miracles that we can only dream of manufacturing ourselves! It’s this bizarre cycle where the people refuse to give up either side of the coin—we won't stop exporting our wealth, yet we won't stop importing their gadgets. But here's the kicker, the part that really gets me: at the exact same time, everyone is cheering for us to finally show the West some teeth and completely sever every single tie we have with them. It's such a wild contradiction, isn't it? Honestly, this behavior is just straight-up bizarre.
If you’re asking me for a prediction, I honestly believe we’re going to see Russia start looking more and more like North Korea. Now, don't get me wrong, they aren't ever going to be an exact carbon copy—Russia is just too massive, and they've had far too much exposure to Western influence over the centuries to completely sink that deep—but the trajectory is there. Just look at how South and North Korea stand today as two entirely different civilizations; from the perspective of an average person living in any neighboring country, Russia is going to seem increasingly bizarre, increasingly isolated, and just... strange. It’s going to feel like a totally different society. And just like what happened with North Korea, I suspect Russia’s policies—starting with their foreign affairs and eventually bleeding into their domestic life—are going to be increasingly dictated by Beijing. Of course, they’ll probably cling to some sort of local charm, because let's face it, every backwater corner of the world has its own unique set of headaches and absolute disasters, like an uncontrolled HIV epidemic or something along those lines. Speaking of which, while all the medical breakthroughs and life-saving miracles from the West have been "mercifully" exempted from sanctions, I have a sneaking suspicion that the real issue won't be availability, but actually being able to pay for it. I mean, unless someone in Russia seriously believes that Pfizer, Philips, Johnson & Johnson, and the rest of the gang are just handing out their products and services for free! You know, we’re stepping into a decade where the West is going to be pouring hundreds of billions of dollars every single year into research and treatments targeting, quite literally, the aging process itself. It's wild to think about. Meanwhile, over in Russia, they're heading into a decade where the pharmaceutical and medical sectors are going to find it harder and harder just to keep pace with what was standard back in the 20th century. Honestly, it's starting to look a lot like North Korea ☕
The U.S. is finally plugging those sanction loopholes, like all that stuff being shipped through Turkey and the United Arab Emirates
A high-ranking U.S. Treasury official touched down in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) this Monday to give that massive regional business hub a serious heads-up—basically telling them that helping Moscow dodge sanctions is going to come with some real consequences.
The Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian E. Nelson, sat down with top officials from various UAE ministries to talk about "rooting out evasion of US sanctions, particularly on Russia and Iran," while also making it very clear that the U.S. is fully committed to taking further action against anyone trying to bypass or help facilitate the evasion of these sanctions, based on an official statement.
ISTANBUL, February 4 (Reuters) - The United States warned Turkey in recent days about the export to Russia of chemicals, microchips and other products that can be used in Moscow's war effort in Ukraine, noting that they might even step in to penalize Turkish companies or banks that aren't playing by the rules regarding sanctions.
Brian Nelson, who is the top sanctions official over at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, actually went to meet with Turkish government and private sector officials on Thursday and Friday to push for much tighter cooperation when it comes to stopping the flow of these kinds of goods.
Man, you really have to look at these numbers because the budget revenue from oil and gas sales is absolutely cratering—we’re talking a massive 46% drop Year-over-Year! It's wild when you lay it out; back in January 2022, the budget was pulling in 795 billion rubles from those energy sales, but by January 2023, that figure had plummeted down to just 426 billion rubles. https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilpric...-Year.amp.html
And get this—the European Union's embargo on oil derivatives is officially kicking in this Sunday. It isn't just that the European Union is cutting off imports of these derivatives entirely; they’ve also hammered out a price cap for sales to third countries, which basically mirrors the restrictions already in place for crude oil. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...cts/index.html
On top of all that, word is the tenth round of sanctions should be finalized sometime during February. https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...513e34d9898ce2
I’d honestly expect the Russian GDP to see some modest growth in the near future. You see, whenever nations start frantically shifting their savings into massive public spending sprees, you usually end up seeing a spike in GDP—and often a pretty significant one at that. Just look at how American citizens' savings fueled such an incredible surge in US real GDP back in the decades leading up to WWII; we're talking about a 75% jump in just four years, moving from age 41 to 45. That wartime production alone practically doubled the entire US economy. As long as Russia has the cash flow to fund this massive expansion of their manufacturing base, they’re going to make it happen. And honestly, they can probably scrape together hundreds of billions of dollars relatively easily if they need to.
Personally, I wouldn't sweat those specific categories too much. If you want to know what actually matters, look at oil prices; that is significantly more vital to the survival of Russia's war efforts and the stability of the nation itself. At the end of the day, this isn't a society or a civilization with the kind of internal spark needed to truly dictate global trends. Their only real edge is geography—specifically, that staggering amount of resources they have per capita. When they can dump those resources onto the global market and snag a decent price, Russia is a powerhouse. But when they can't? Then Russia starts retreating.
By the way, did you see this? It looks like banks from China, Turkey, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan... well, everyone seems to be jumping on board with the US sanctions against Russian Banks.
Countries that Russia considers "friendly", contrary to expectations, fully joined the Western sanctions against Russian banks. According to RBC, this was announced at the Wall Street Journal conference on Tuesday by Vice President of JP Morgan Alexander Rakhmanin.
According to him, “colleagues” from China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and even post-Soviet republics, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, refuse to work with Russian credit institutions that have fallen under restrictions.
Expectations that a queue of those wishing to Help Russia would Lin up in China turned out to be futiti : The largest "states" - Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank - refuse to accept payments from banks from the Russian Federation that fell under blocking sanctions, Rakhmanin said.
Look, the deficit always seems to blow up in December. But the real litmus test happens this year, because once China fully reopens, we’re almost certainly going to see a massive spike in both oil demand and prices.
Right now, Russia basically has three ways to bankroll this war: - They can borrow from their own domestic capital markets—or, let's be honest, just snatch it. They've already started down this path, essentially forcing people's savings into worthless bonds.
- Central bank reserves. In theory, that money is supposed to cover imports and keep the currency stable, but when you're dealing with a dictator, it ends up being used for whatever whim strikes them. We're looking at roughly $300 billion, and about $140 billion of that comes from their 2,300 tons of gold.
- The NWF/RDIF, which are just state funds. We're talking somewhere between $150 and $180 billion. I'd bet my life at least part of that is frozen, and a huge chunk is already tied up in investing back into their own local companies anyway.
If Western limits and sanctions actually hold steady, then it's really just a matter of how long they can keep this going before they run dry. Once that happens, everyone gets hit with the biggest hidden tax in history: runaway inflation caused by printing money like there's no tomorrow.
Estonia and Latvia have officially kicked the Russian ambassadors out. It feels like we’re steadily creeping toward that next big step—completely severing diplomatic ties altogether. Honestly, I’ll take any bets on how much longer Russia can even hang around the UN, or really, how much longer the UN itself survives in this current format? It’s getting intense. View on twitter
Word on the street is that Russian banks are looking into alternatives for Apple Pay and Google Pay, and get this—they’re talking about little chips you can just stick right onto your phone. https://meduza-io.translate.goog/new...en&_x_tr_hl=hr
I really hope that adhesive holds up better than my last DIY project, though honestly, I might just grab some duct tape and give it a shot myself, just to be safe.
The Department of Justice is getting ready to start funneling those seized oligarch assets straight over to Ukraine very soon. As for that central bank money, though? Still radio silence on my end—at least, I haven't stumbled across any updates about it yet. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/st...T1L67qMww&s=19