Christian Torres3 said:Funny how those guys who claim "it's not that bad" jumped out of the woodwork immediately.
People are going to have to speak up a whole lot more this year, because honestly, it’s getting harder and harder to sweep this rot under the rug or try to justify what's happening. When a government starts acting more like a massive gas station than an actual governing body, they aren't going to be able to keep up the charade much longer.
Plus, we've got the 10th package of EU sanctions currently being cooked up, and I heard diamond exports are one of the main things on the agenda right now. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/st...cbxW_nfSg&s=19
The latest stats coming out of Russia show that the decline, YOY, hasn't slowed down one bit. https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/s...X4XmKALkA&s=19 So, here we go—heading into a year where oil revenues are tanking and gas income is taking a massive hit too. It’s almost funny if you think about it for more than a second.
Just a little comedic prelude for you all. Apparently, the country's second-largest mobile carrier just rolled out this "sanction-proof Russian phone" called the Fontel FP200. It’s running on 2G connectivity. Honestly, even in India, they’d probably consider this a bottom-of-the-barrel, low-end device. https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1...2Fyyqc4-g&s=19
Looks like the downward slide for gas prices is still going strong. It just slipped past that 70 mark and is sitting down at 67.4.
At this rate, we might finally see some actually meaningful depletion in the storage levels, which would be huge. https://twitter.com/LeopoldHeinrich/...1q2lR4gQQ&s=19
We’re looking at another wave of sanctions hitting the oil sector very soon. This time, they're coming for the refined stuff, like diesel. Even though the European Union is set to stop importing it by February 5th (though I wonder if there are any loopholes left for us here), it looks like we're following the exact same playbook used for crude oil: price caps. There is also a slight possibility that the West might start lowering the maximum allowed price for oil even this month, which is sitting at $60 a barrel right now. But honestly, from what I hear, the US is actually pretty satisfied with where things stand because buyers are essentially exploiting how desperate the situation is over there, grabbing barrels at massive discounts well below that $60 mark, so I wouldn't expect a drop just yet.
WASHINGTON—The U.S. and its allies are preparing their next round of sanctions on the US oil industry, aiming to cap the sales prices of Russian exports of refined petroleum products in an expansion of novel penalties the West has imposed on the country’s crude.
It’s no surprise to see that huge deficit popping up in December; it's pretty much what you'd expect as the year winds down. And while they still have some significant reserves and cash on hand to lean on, you can really start to see those dark clouds gathering on the horizon.
Putin’s government has already started reducing or delaying non-war spending and is discussing higher taxes for some big companies to help cover the shortfall.
US national debt and defense spending has forced them to draw on its rainy day fund and borrow heavily at domestic debt auctions in recent months as it diverts more funds towards security and defence.
But let’s be real here, the actual price is way lower than that. We're talking about Rockies sitting somewhere around $37-$38. It is an absolute, top-tier disaster. Those national reserve funds and the central bank accounts are going to dry up incredibly fast at this rate. Once they're empty, I guess they can just sell off all of Siberia to the Chinese, probably at a massive discount too. ☕
The value of Rockies crude has been trading below the G7's $60/b price cap since Nov. 18 and Platts last assessed it at $37.635/b on Jan 4
Inflation over in Europe also looks like it’s hitting its peak, and honestly, I think we're about to see it start sliding down pretty soon. Over in the USA, the peak happened way back during the summer, so now that growth is really starting to lose steam. Look at France—they hit 6.7% in December when everyone was bracing for 7.3%, and then you've got Germany coming in at 8.6% for December instead of that expected 9%.
The sheer volume of comments from our neighbors on this forum claiming that the West is going to get absolutely crushed in this economic showdown—and that we'll all have to make massive sacrifices just to fund, let's be honest, a totally pointless effort to help Ukraine—has been nothing short of surreal. And even though those people aren't hanging around here anymore, you can still find that exact same kind of doom-and-gloom chatter dominating their own boards. It's honestly hilarious. In the end, the actual sacrifices will be minimal, because to actually beat the Russians, you only really need about 0.1-0.2% of the GDP of Europe and the USA, especially since a huge chunk of that is just going toward surplus military gear and tech that’s basically thirty years old anyway.
It’s honestly wild to see this—for the first time, Russian oil isn't just following the usual global trends, it's actually tanking significantly below even the WTI levels. Looking at this chart, you really have to feel for the Russians and their neighbors because it looks incredibly grim; it seems like the West is doing a pretty thorough job right now of tearing up the very foundation and the last remaining stable parts of the Russian economy itself. https://i.postimg.cc/7hDYygbV/Urals.jpg
By the end of 2022, gas prices had actually dipped down to about $76/MWh, which was surprisingly lower than where things stood back in January of that same year. ☕
"The West is totally clueless right now; they're gonna be staring down $1,000/MWh before they know it." 😁
Yeah, I mean, storage levels aren't depleting nearly as fast as they used to, you know? If I recall correctly, Germany has even been managing to pump some supplies back into their storage facilities over the last few days, right in the middle of winter! But, obviously, everything hinges on whether we get a mild winter or a brutal one. Those prices can absolutely skyrocket in an instant if a massive cold snap hits Europe—or even the US, for that matter.
Word on the street is that the Central Bank of Russia is basically admitting they’re in a massive bind when it comes to getting those frozen assets back. We're talking about a staggering $300 billion out of a total $580 billion that's just sitting there stuck in limbo right now. https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/sta...tPtWEaZDQ&s=19
There’s a tiny liquidity crisis brewing back home. We all know how hard it used to be for the average person to get their hands on foreign currency—you basically had to go through the black market because the dollar and the euro weren't even remotely close to what the official exchange rate claimed they were. But now, it looks like there isn't even enough cash floating around to cover basic salaries or pensions. https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/st...260y4A44A&s=19 It’s a pretty grim situation when your only real economic lifeline is selling oil and gas, and even then, you’re constantly leaning on those wealthy folks in the West for just about everything—and God help you if you ever cross them... I’m half expecting Putin to follow his buddy's lead in Ankara and just start cranking up the money printers. We've heard plenty from our neighbors about inflation hitting Europe, but I wonder if they'll start broadcasting news about the hyperinflation happening right here in America? ☕
I’m not sure if anyone has brought this up yet, but the United States Senate just passed an amendment that would actually allow Ukraine to seize and repurpose those frozen assets belonging to sanctioned Russian individuals and entities—you know, mostly all those oligarchs. And get this, they did it unanimously! Next on their hit list? Those massive central bank reserves from Russia that have been sitting there under lock and key. https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/statu...90046930046976
I haven't quite dug up the exact total for how much money is currently tied up in those oligarch accounts across the West, but my gut tells me we're looking at hundreds of billions of dollars. Of course, there might be some holdouts—places like Switzerland might not be totally on board with handing over that kind of cash to Ukraine—but honestly, I’d bet anything that Ukraine is going to see the lion's share of it coming in over the next few years. When you factor in those hundreds of billions from the oligarchs on top of the $300 billion held in the Russian central bank reserves, things get really wild. If they manage to pull all of that off and redirect it toward Ukraine, we could be talking about them receiving somewhere in the ballpark of $400 to $500 billion in the coming years.
It’s honestly no surprise at this point, but the whole situation regarding spare parts and maintenance for Western aircraft is just going downhill fast. Now we're seeing this latest move where the Russians are trying to dodge those sanctions by attempting to buy back seized planes. Didn't we all hear them bragging about how Russia and Iran would just manufacture every single replacement part they needed on their own? ☕ https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ms-2022-12-22/
They really have climbed back up, haven't they? We're looking at August levels now, though we’re still sitting well below what we saw back in May, lol. And honestly, let's not even get started on the fact that at least half of those funds are basically frozen solid right now. I mean, thanks for the reminder that the central bank over in Ukraine might actually see a massive windfall next year when they potentially inherit those $300 billion in reserves from the—well, soon-to-be former—Federal Reserve of Russia. It’s pretty optimistic of the Russians to keep acting like that money still belongs to them, but hey, if they weren't being completely delusional, they probably wouldn't be in this mess to begin with. I'm sure the Russians will find a way to plug that hole, though—probably by selling oil to North Korea at a massive discount.
I mean, you've got the Chinese and Indians probably picking this up at maybe $35 to $45 a barrel. It makes me wonder how much that actually leaves for the Russians—like, how many of their wells are going to have to shut down next year because they just can't make the math work...☕ Russia is pumping just north of 10 million barrels a day, but their net export is sitting right around 5 million. Honestly, I think they’re going to be crying over those numbers pretty soon.
The bleeding just won't stop. Honestly, Russia is falling further and further behind the rest of the developed world when it comes to education, scientific breakthroughs, and high-end tech—which is exactly what they desperately need right now. It feels like it’s only a matter of time before they just slam the borders shut and forbid any man from leaving the country entirely, all while using mobilization as a convenient excuse to keep everyone trapped inside. https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/stat...90347563143168
The European Union is actually putting together some concrete proposals to shift those frozen Russian assets over to Ukraine. From what I can gather, they’re looking specifically at central bank funds, which we're talking about roughly $300 billion in. I couldn't find a definitive breakdown on whether this is strictly an EU move or if the USA, the UK, and Japan are all bundled into this specific plan, though my gut tells me it's just the EU for now, especially since this is being hashed out at their summit. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/st...fk4_fwebA&s=19
But honestly, that's just one part of the puzzle. There’s also this massive pile of frozen assets belonging to oligarchs, tycoons, various Russian corporations, organizations, and even just regular citizens—and that total might actually dwarf the seized central bank reserves. For instance, I was reading that in the UK alone, those assets amount to something in the neighborhood of 500 billion pounds. https://www.cityam.com/total-value-o...e-uk-at-500bn/ Of course, actually liquidating all of that is a whole different beast entirely! Not only is it going to take years and years to untangle everything, but you know how it goes—some of these assets, like those massive luxury superyachts, will probably end up being sold off at huge discounts.
Gas prices across most of Europe are absolutely cratering right now, and the Dutch TTF has already dipped below €125 per MWh. Honestly, at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if we see it sliding under the €100 mark as early as this week.
It looks like the new government in Sweden is pretty much a done deal and should get the green light from Parliament any day now, especially since they've got the Sweden Democrats backing them up. We're looking at a much tougher stance on immigration, and honestly, it feels like they're also gearing up to go all-in on building out some new nuclear reactors, which would be a massive shift. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...nt-2022-10-14/ https://twitter.com/business/status/...3mbE0b6Kw&s=19