Posts by dustyheron5

Just imagine what a gold bubble would actually look like...

http://www.businessinsider.com/ultra...ard-russell-10

Here is some insight from a technical analysis expert focusing on gold (and silver).......

I’m starting to seriously weigh adding to my long-term metal positions—especially now that prices have finally hit the specific targets I outlined last week. I'll give myself one more day to sit with the decision before pulling the trigger.

http://www.24hgold.com/24hpmdata/art...-02-21-001.gif

vividgull10 said:Anyone who went short in September/October is up about 10-15% right now, depending on when they jumped in.
Anything else is just missed opportunity.

Exactly.......just don't forget to actually lock in those profits.......personally, I don't bother with shorting gold; I'd much rather ride the winners. In the US, that meant picking up stocks like JASO, LDK, SPWR, or RNF, where the returns were 😍 well beyond that 10-15% mark....... 😁

That said, kudos to anyone who pulled a profit—regardless of the asset—because this market has been incredibly demanding lately.......

I love buying when everyone else is losing their minds and blood is being spilled on the streets. Based on the comments from retail traders and amateur speculators, you can tell this is actually a perfect time to pick things up. 😁

As a little something for those who don't succumb to mass hysteria or panic attacks, I’m sharing an excellent article for study:
http://www.larsschall.com/2013/02/17...rtant-signals/

:mig

As a follow-up to that, here is a quote from the legendary Warren Buffett:
"Investing today may well be harder than it has been at any time in our three decades of existence," writes Warren Buffett in his year-end letter. The Federal Reserve's "relentless interventions and manipulations" have left few purchase targets for Baupost, he laments. "(The) underpinnings of our economy and financial system are so precarious that the un-abating risks of collapse dwarf all other factors.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/12-br...#ixzz2LTkmuF3u

Henry Hernandez7 said:What’s the deal with gold prices lately? How did they tank like this?

Everyone is just panic selling everything in sight... and then they rush straight into overvalued stocks at their peak.😍

I used the Pearl Harbor event as an opportunity to load up more MUX at $2.65... honestly, I wish there had been a bit more panic—prices could have been even better.

If we see another dip, I fully intend to buy more. 😁

It looks like things aren't going quite as smoothly for the Americans as they claim. 🤣
The European Union is stuck in a recession and seeing negative numbers for Q4—even Germany is in the red. 😉
http://www.financialsense.com/node/1...medium=twitter

Max Keiser ‏@maxkeiser

Both Gold and Silver are in backwardation after today's paper attack. Back up the truck!!!

So... is this new guy not funny to you anymore?

Harold Martin10 said:Meanwhile, someone holding gold right now can buy 5% less ammo, and that ammo itself is already 20% less valuable than it was a year ago.🙂

By the way, I’m not trying to play fortune teller here—I’m just pointing out that a 20% drop in what an ammo stash can actually buy isn't exactly great news for anyone holding gold.

Of course they lost money... but if they weren't forced to sell (and most people didn't dump their entire portfolio into gold, just a portion), there is still a chance the price recovers to make up that loss. That isn't an option with cartridges—they only regain purchasing power if the price drops back down to where it was before the spike.

Regarding that specific timeframe you chose—it stands as a fact. But it is equally a fact that you have lost 50% of your purchasing power in cartridges over the last five years... whereas someone who bought gold back then hasn't lost any purchasing power at all—not even if they sell at today's prices. You either conveniently forgot that or simply didn't think of it.😁

And finally, Felix Zulauf
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...ice_Spike.html

Robert Vaughn10 said:Let’s draw a parallel with the Euro... You really think Germans are that stupid?😉

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6o6CXOTTGkU

I am not talking about the Germans—it is the French I am looking at... the German economy can handle the Euro at $1.79, whereas France can only manage up to $1.24... which means, in my opinion, Germany will be the very last one to ever leave the Eurozone.

Whether France will actually find the strength to exit is a different matter entirely—perhaps they will, perhaps they won't—but one thing is certain: if the Euro stays too strong, the French economy is going to sink deeper and deeper.

hollowmoose21 said:M2 money velocity is still tanking. 🤔

That’s the current reality—but my point was that this can shift... and it could happen exactly how he described... starting slowly before accelerating rapidly... honestly, I suspect that process has already begun. 😉

analogharbor44 As specified by analogharbor44:
Go ahead and keep deluding yourselves—thinking we’re headed for hyperinflation like they saw in Zimbabwe or old Germany. 😂

Personally, I don't delude myself.🤣I’m staying grounded here—unlike you, I actually realize that I lost roughly 20% of my purchasing power within the portfolio I’ve been holding since last year. You still haven't quite grasped that reality—you're essentially deluding yourself into thinking your money holds its value just because the official inflation rate sits at 4.3%. 😂

It starts gradually—then all at once.......
😁
http://www.businessinsider.com/art-c...flation-2013-2

Patrick Moore3 said:It’s not the Chinese, it’s actually the Russians who are the biggest buyers... according to them:
http://rt.com/business/news/russia-b...old-buyer-946/

That's only because the Chinese aren't interested in disclosing their actual purchase volumes. 😁

Ben Davies on inflation...

So, what does the future hold for cash? According to The Wall Street Journal:

“The legendary Peter Schiff—a true contrarian and top-tier fund manager—recently analyzed inflation data through the lens of his firm, Goldman Sachs. His research suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses deeply flawed methodologies when calculating the CPI. By constructing an independent basket of 20 essential goods and services, Goldman Sachs researchers discovered a massive discrepancy. Between 1970 and 1980, their findings showed prices rose only 5% faster than the official CPI—back then, the numbers were actually reliable. However, from 2002 to 2012, the cost of that same basket skyrocketed 61% faster than the official figures! Schiff argues that real US inflation is sitting between 7% and 9%, and it's only going up from here.”
Interestingly, our own unofficial S&P 500 tracks right along with that 7% estimate.
Let's be honest—we all realize inflation isn't what the government claims it is. Whether the real number is 5, 7, or 10% largely depends on your personal spending habits—but it certainly isn't 2%.

Kyle Bass .......The stock market in Zimbabwe was the top performer of the decade—but today, your entire portfolio wouldn't even cover the cost of three eggs.......😍
There are also some solid insights here on how to hedge against cost-push inflation—focusing on productive assets—which is a much more reliable strategy.....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ember-zimbabwe

This offers a pretty clear look at what’s actually driving gold prices right now—essentially just a direct reaction to the latest NFPs data.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0201_react.jpg

dustyheron5 said:Good grief... how did we pivot so fast from talking about a phenomenal recovery to staring down the barrel of another recession?🙂
And how is it that the drop in gold prices was blamed on that very same recovery, yet now they claim the decline is happening because the US might be sliding into a recession?😍
http://www.businessinsider.com/art-c...-signal-2013-1
The year-over-year change in real GDP was 1.5 percent. There has never been a time since measurement commenced in 1948 when the annual pace of real GDP has fallen that low without the economy ultimately slipping into recession. Sub-2.0 percent readings are historically the warning signal.

I'm worried—if Art Cashin is right—that they won't just need this measly $1.1 trillion little helping hand, but will actually require QE5, QE6, and even QE7.... 😂

A brief addendum to Art Cashin’s piece—this time coming from Graham Summers...😁

A few weeks back, we pointed out that the Great Recession was finally winding down—yesterday’s GDP numbers just hammered that point home.

The US Federal government was engaging in Quantitative Easing during the latter half of 2012—an observation we made quite clearly back then. The US Federal government was engaging in a massive rig—essentially an attempt to mask the true state of affairs—to make the economy look more robust than it actually was, all to bolster the Obama re-election campaign.This trend manifested itself clearly within both the employment figures and the third-quarter GDP report.
The election is finally behind us—and now we’re just left dealing with the hangover. The mainstream media loves to spin the narrative that the fourth-quarter GDP figures are driven by government spending cuts—but the reality tells a different story. In truth, federal outlays actually jumped by 12% during the final quarter of 2012.
The unfortunate reality remains—the US economy is actually in far worse shape than the official data indicates. As we have pointed out previously—the Federal Reserve significantly understates inflation simply to polish the appearance of GDP growth.
Look at the numbers—it’s pretty clear. Today's GDP deflator sits at a measly 0.6%, while actual inflation is hovering much closer to 8%. This means even that -0.14% figure is massively overstating what's actually happening with real growth. If you account for the real increases in the cost of living in the US, GDP actually shrank by well over 1% in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Good grief... how did we pivot so fast from talking about a phenomenal recovery to staring down the barrel of another recession?🙂
And how is it that the drop in gold prices was blamed on that very same recovery, yet now they claim the decline is happening because the US might be sliding into a recession?😍
http://www.businessinsider.com/art-c...-signal-2013-1
The year-over-year change in real GDP was 1.5 percent. There has never been a time since measurement commenced in 1948 when the annual pace of real GDP has fallen that low without the economy ultimately slipping into recession. Sub-2.0 percent readings are historically the warning signal.

I'm worried—if Art Cashin is right—that they won't just need this measly $1.1 trillion little helping hand, but will actually require QE5, QE6, and even QE7.... 😂

Ashley Thompson10 said:When you actually sit down and watch the news, it’s hard to ignore the red flags. There are so many indicators suggesting the US economy is sliding, and frankly, our current footing feels incredibly shaky. We're seeing unemployment numbers being massaged right before elections, even though we had that 0.1% dip in Q4 despite the Quantitative Easing stimulus. Now, there's just more talk about printing money through further QE. Meanwhile, the middle class is being hollowed out, student debt is bloated to the point of total collapse, and banks are basically creative accounting their way through foreclosures—treating properties that should be underwater as if everything is perfectly fine. On top of that, look at the global stage: major economies are either already deep in aggressive QE and interventionism, like Japan and China, or they’ll be forced to follow suit very soon, much like the European Union.

By any standard economic logic, we should be seeing inflation by now.
Yet, despite all the noise, the markets seem stuck obsessing over late 2011 price levels, and so far, we haven't seen any significant spike. People have been shouting about it and predicting it for years, but as of today, it hasn't materialized.

It makes me wonder if there’s some sort of invisible threshold—a tipping point where inflation stops being a slow, linear crawl and suddenly hits a step function. Could it be that inflation stays stagnant at around 2.5% for months, only to suddenly teleport to 6% or 8% and then rocket upward from there? After all, inflation reporting isn't some daily heartbeat; it's a quarterly snapshot.

From my perspective, those in power have zero incentive to announce high inflation. If they did, you'd see a massive flight of capital into any asset people hope will hold its value—think real estate, precious metals, oil, or food futures. At the same time, consumer spending would crater because people, terrified of losing their purchasing power, would start hoarding cash. That would tank stock prices just as interest rates rise for the corporations trying to produce goods. That's my take on why there's this "threshold" effect and why we're currently just muddling along in this strange limbo.

The primary reason we aren't seeing noticeable inflation IN OFFICIAL STATISTICS😉 is the diversion of capital from the private sector into the public sector... or rather, the looting😍 of the private sector by the government through financial repression... combined with a lack of velocity—essentially, a low money velocity—stemming from debt-driven deflation and ongoing uncertainty.

On the flip side, the inflation affecting assets that citizens and companies actually need is quite high—significantly higher than what official statistics show... while simultaneously, assets held by the private sector, particularly individuals, are undergoing intense deflation.

We will see how this plays out—though certainly not anytime soon. 🤣

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Yeah. The data they're putting out is bizarre. On one hand, you've got unemployment dropping and a supposed housing recovery, but then on the other, record numbers of people relying on food stamps and a shrinking GDP. It doesn't add up. The FOMC meets today, but there's nothing on the schedule about Ben speaking.😉

Look, I'm worried you aren't seeing the full picture here😁—that decline is actually a positive indicator because it sets the stage for massive quarter-over-quarter growth next term. Of course, if they decide to drop enough bombs globally, the recovery could be nothing short of spectacular 😍

Just so nobody thinks I'm just talking out of thin air, here is a link to back my point: 👍
http://www.businessinsider.com/analyves-strong-2013-1