Posts by dustyheron5

Forget about Rogers—that ship has sailed... I'm talking about this latest correction... from 1700 down to 1665

Honestly, you all are overreacting to these minor corrections.😁........Let things play out naturally—the fewer these corrections are in the metals market, the longer this bull run will last.😍.......It is simply necessary to shake out the weak hands—those who bought in without having any real understanding of why they wanted metals in the first place.......🤣

In my opinion, this is the fallout from people believing the US budget deficit would shrink significantly; we'll see how much that actually happens. As a result, metal prices will react accordingly.......

Here is an article for you to look over.......http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...pendence_1.jpg

The chart clearly illustrates why gold dropped from 1980 through 2001—and why it has been climbing ever since.......🙂

quiettrucker12 said:The debt ceiling is a non-issue. It’s all theater; the market has already priced it in.

🤣

I have to disagree... while you're right to view it strictly as a negotiation tactic—which it is—the actual numbers behind tax hikes and spending cuts matter immensely to the markets.

The outcome depends heavily on steel prices, as well as broader market trends...😉

Benjamin King2 said:Of course they aren't going to hike interest rates—that would just make the government's new borrowing way more expensive, and honestly, it would only drive their deficit even deeper into the red. 😁

The real issue with today’s banking system isn't risk—it's leverage—or if we're being honest, just straight-up greed. And before anyone tries to drag Volcker into this, let me stop you right there—he has absolutely nothing to do with it.

As one Federal Reserve official—I believe his name is Fisher—once put it:

The Federal Reserve is currently stuck in a "Hotel California" phase of monetary policy...😬

vividgull10 said:I’m talking about saving and speculation; you're out here talking about investing and speculation.
Either you’ve completely confused investing with saving—which I highly doubt—or you just aren't paying attention to what's being written here.

Fine... but you're still missing the point entirely.🤣

Anything can function as saving, speculation, or an investment simultaneously.

Take my collection of solar panels, for instance—that serves as both a way to save money and a long-term investment. Plus, if prices spike suddenly, I could sell them speculatively.😁

No offense intended, but grasping these fundamental concepts seems to be a struggle for you—so I'll go read something substantive elsewhere to avoid wasting more of my day on this, while you continue your usual trolling. 😂

vividgull10 said:In other words, it serves its exact purpose: it's meant for speculation, not for a savings account.

Look, you seem to be missing some fundamental concepts here... any type of asset can be used for either investing or speculation. That depends entirely on your own temperament and character as an investor—not the specific class of asset you choose to hold.

By the way, just a friendly suggestion... you should really look into $32 Lamar Jackson's book: Investing And
😉

vividgull10 said:So, you’re actually telling me you’d park your money in something that doubles in a year only to crater by 50% right after? Seriously?

Look, I'm an investor, a speculator, and a consumer—I've been through all three. I used to be a saver back before the 2008 crash... now, I spend more than I save 😂—essentially playing a strictly counter-cyclical game.

And honestly, go ahead and head down to a big bank like JPMorgan to ask for some "expert" investment advice. They sure know their way around risk management... 😉
Why waste your time on the steel industry when (in your view) it serves no purpose other than spiking 100% and then crashing 50%? 😂

vividgull10 said:If you ask me, this whole thing boils down to a few basic fallacies:

- If inflation were just a simple equation where Federal Reserve printing > inflation = sky-high prices — everyone would be rich.
- If precious metals worked on the logic that inflation spikes > gold must moon — everyone would be rich.
- (Combining 1 and 2) If metals followed the logic that Federal Reserve prints > gold must moon — everyone would be rich.

Obviously, not everyone is rich. There’s a pretty clear correlation between what you know, how informed you are, solid risk management, and your actual bank balance.

The point is... the internet is flooded with characters who take things people study for years and reduce them to oversimplified sentences. I’m no trained economist, but I know enough to realize that any complex system is called "complex" for a reason. Consequently, there’s a reason anyone can start a YouTube channel, but not everyone gets a PhD.

The point being > it means nothing to me if someone happens to be right once in an indefinite period of time. That’s useless. It’s useless because it ignores the most elementary postulates of risk management. More specifically, it ignores risk management itself.

None of this is meant to imply I have all the answers. All I have is a pile of questions and a few stray ideas. For me, that's plenty. I learned long ago that staying disciplined is key—if you don't chase the hype, the profit usually finds you.

Look, my friend, I’d suggest heading down to JP Morgan... they have the best risk management teams in the world... and they'll give you some top-tier advice...😂

For instance, you could always buy some Coca-Cola bonds... or maybe look into Exelon... or even put more capital into Ingram.😁

Patrick Moore3 said:Totally wrong, man... once again, your predictions are way off. Didn't learn a thing after QE3, huh?

Reading your forecasts, it's pretty obvious who's trolling here...

My prediction came in 100% accurate: QE, just as Ben announced😍.......As for the daily price fluctuations of gold and silver, I don't owe anyone an explanation—least of all you.🤣

In fact, I am entirely indifferent to what the price of gold will be on December 14, 2012, at 11:43 AM or even fifteen seconds from now😂.......truly, completely indifferent.......
I couldn't care less if metallurgical prices hit a decent level within a few days or not—that’s it. For instance, I cashed out my positions in SLW, TLH, AVL, and a few others earlier this year...... I haven't moved on AGQ yet, but with an entry point at $41, I can move whenever I feel like it.

I have yet to see you or anyone else like you post about making anything substantial, intelligent, or profitable on the market... 🤣

quiettrucker12 said:Of course it is. I don't get why everyone is acting "disappointed" when we actually got exactly what we wanted—I'd go further and say we got a trillion bucks a year. 🙄

Anyway, the focus shifts to the stock market now (looks like we closed just under 1430 today); technically speaking, it needs a correction over the next few days. Gold will likely have to sit on its hands for a bit too, but those are just technicalities.

As for the support levels, they look fine. But I honestly don't get why I've suddenly become "interesting" to some people in this group out of nowhere... I post my thoughts, others post theirs, it’s all good. It's not like anyone took offense because of ZeroHedge and Jerry Falwell a few days ago. Karl was the one under fire then, so maybe times are just changing.

I have no idea who these disappointed people are 🤷 I certainly am not one of them. To be honest, I was expecting QE3 (though Rubin claims this is already QE5 😍), given how problematic the global economy is right now—most of the world is either in a recession or staring down the barrel of one...
Realistically, we expected Ben to intervene, and he did. On the other hand, the article published by Goldman Sachs feels—in my view—like an attempt to suppress gold prices; every rise in gold further erodes confidence in fiat currencies, and I expect a significant fight there.

As for support, I don't just back you and lonehawk5, but everyone else should feel free to share their own perspectives... and despite your negative stance, I still read ZeroHedge. 😂

Tyler stopped following the market long ago because he's completely lost it and is just messing around... look at his phrasing: "we are all pretending to be surprised by the Federal Reserve intervention..." 😂

It looks like Larry Ellison has weighed in—he even paused his regular ink stream just to give us his take on this mess...😂

For those who skip everything except the headlines (which I've left out 😍), let me be clear: the pessimistic forecast puts gold at $5,000 per ounce. If you don't have the stomach for those numbers, look elsewhere. 🤣 😁

Scenario No 1: [LEAST LIKELY]
The current wave of negative economic data subsides... the stock market's recent rally holds steady... concerns regarding a double-dip recession fade away... and the American economy begins a genuine recovery.

Everything seems fine. Even in Europe.

The Federal Reserve's attempts to stabilize the American economy and the financial system actually work.

So, what follows this—admittedly unlikely—path?

• The credit squeeze hitting homeowners and businesses begins to loosen...

• Banks resume lending... credit starts flowing through the pipes again... government tax revenues rise... and the sovereign-debt crisis loses its teeth...

• And the trillions of paper dollars the Federal Reserve has created begin to work their way through the economy.

Within a year or so, standard credit creation is back in full swing. Our fractional reserve banking system kicks in, multiplying that lending once more—up to $9 for every single new dollar printed by the Federal Reserve.

We end up with as much as $20 trillion in heavily diluted money flooding the American economy. That is more than double the country's current GDP.

And since this is money that essentially shouldn't exist—mere monopoly money conjured up by the Federal Reserve—we can all guess the outcome.

Inflation will skyrocket. And regardless of how aggressively the Federal Reserve tries to pivot its policies to curb the heat, prices for nearly everything will surge. Sharply.

Naturally, gold performs exceptionally well in this situation. How well? I'll get to that shortly. First, consider...

Scenario No 2 [MOST LIKELY]:
The relentless stream of bad economic news persists... the American economy shifts from bad to worse... Europe goes into meltdown mode...

And it becomes painfully obvious that the rescue missions launched by the American and European governments, along with their central banks, have completely flopped.

Both here and in Europe, the reality sets in: governments are broke. We are looking at a full-blown depression.

The Fed and the ECB pump even more trillions into their respective economies. It changes nothing.

What is the result here? The euro and the U.S. dollar will simply race one another to the bottom of a pile of failed paper currencies.

Both currencies will suffer a massive loss in purchasing power... dragging the entire Western world down into a deep, inflationary depression.

The global monetary system will be effectively gutted, collapsing under a mountain of debt that can never be serviced.

The Bottom Line for Gold...

In Scenario No 1, I expect gold to hit my minimum target of $5,000 an ounce without much trouble. There is no question there.

But in Scenario No 2, gold could easily blow past $5,000. At that point, predicting the ceiling is nearly impossible. $7,000? $8,000? Maybe even north of $10,000?

It is difficult to call. However, I know this: if the Fed chose to monetize the nation's 261.498 million troy ounces of gold reserves against the current national debt of $16.375 trillion...

Then we would be looking at gold at $62,237.56.

And if they went even further—monetizing, say, just 10% of the country's total debt and obligations, which is roughly $22 trillion—you could be staring at gold priced at $84,130.66.

Do I expect gold to hit either of those specific targets? Not quite.

However, this exercise demonstrates a fundamental truth—no matter which angle you take, gold is trending upward, and significantly so. A price of $5,000 per ounce might actually turn out to be a rather modest estimate.

Therefore, gold needs to be your primary insurance policy moving forward. Keep that in mind.

Regardless of your strategy, cling to your gold holdings—otherwise, you'll regret the oversight. If you aren't currently holding any, prepare to start loading up.

To be clear, I maintained a bullish stance on gold from 2000 until it peaked at $1,925 in 2011. Following that peak, I predicted a correction—one that played out exactly as anticipated.

While we might see some additional downward movement in the short term, the window for this correction is closing fast. It won't be long before I issue my first significant buy signal for gold since the year 2000.

quiettrucker12, you have my support... anyone who hasn't attempted projections or forecasts in a market this volatile knows just how thankless the job can be.

Personally, I tip my hat to your estimates—both the short-term and long-term views... you deserve every bit of credit for what you bring to this discussion.🙏

The situation is far more complex than it looks on the surface. To be blunt, the fiscal cliff is almost certainly going to act as a deflationary force—and this announcement regarding QE is essentially an attempt to neutralize that deflationary pressure from the fiscal cliff and those shaky global economic trends. It isn't easy to predict exactly how the market will react to all of this... Mr. Market always gets the final say.

By the way, we also need to factor the debt ceiling increase into the equation.

My own take? I think this decision is incredibly bullish for metals, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Anthony Evans78 said:Your colleague put it pretty clearly, but your issue is just refusing to admit when you're wrong or acting like a troll.
Sometimes both sides 🙂
Besides, if you actually trust the Federal Reserve and their press releases, you're already lost. It doesn't matter what they say; it matters what they do.
I've been saying for years that the Federal Reserve has no choice but to print money. You can call it Quantitative Easing, TARP, Operation Twist... whatever... it's all just printing cash. Honestly, it hasn't even fully hit the economy yet—they're still busy propping up zombie banks—but once they turn off the tap, everyone holding paper assets is going to feel it. 🙂
Anyway, back to Operation Twist. It's over. And you know why? Because there aren't enough short-term US Treasuries left to swap for the long-term ones.
A year ago, it was "discovered" that during the first round of Quantitative Easing—which was officially $800 billion—they quietly dumped an extra $15 trillion on the side to bail out certain banks and firms, not just in the US, but globally.
And all this time, the "market" has been reacting to Federal Reserve statements like it's supply and demand or some other nonsense...
Believing official Federal Reserve and US government data is a joke. Who actually believes inflation is at 2%, unemployment is at 7.7%, and the US economy is recovering?
Bottom line: they'll print until they die.

I think he’s mostly just trolling—honestly, there's very little substance to what he's saying. 😂

vividgull10 said:Basically, he said the same thing he did regarding Quantitative Easing 3, and the balance sheet hasn't really moved much.

So, for now—I don't see any major news here.
The announcement fell flat, so now we just wait to see if they actually follow through with anything concrete.

Look, I think you're missing the fundamental distinction between Operation Twist and actual Quantitative Easing.......
In Operation Twist, they sell short-term bonds to buy long-term ones—but in Quantitative Easing, they are buying bonds newly issued by the Treasury.......😉

Following this new round of Quantitative Easing, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is expected to expand by $1 trillion over the next year.

Now *that* is true Quantitative Easing 3.......and it’s going to drive up commodity prices significantly.......The real question is whether gold will break $1,790/oz immediately—within the next few days—or if it takes a drugi attempt.......

You’ve got it wrong, Francis—completely off base.......Bernanke made the call to ramp up intervention by purchasing $45 billion in US Treasury securities every month.......😉

Everything is heading up now, just as I predicted.......😍

http://www.businessinsider.com/fomc-...eeting-2012-12

At 8:15 PM, Bernanke (that little devil) said 😁...given how desperate the global economy looks right now, I’m expecting them to announce a legitimate QE3—since the last one was basically a fake—along with an expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Once that happens, everything goes up, except for the dollar.😉

Even if he just sticks to OMOs—basically just flooding the market—which, to be fair, he’s been pretty good at doing so far.😂

nimblepanther18 said:Even when masimo1 tried to come back, certain forum members chased him off (though I really hope he returns). Mizuzul drops in occasionally, and I haven't seen "indijanca" around lately either..

I'm here...😂

just lurking and reading you all instead of posting...😁

I am currently debating Goldman Sachs and their forecasts:

What should we make of this Goldman Sachs analysis? It’s all very well-written, but the question remains—how realistic is any of it?

The truth is, the global economic landscape is quite grim and prone to further deterioration.

Let's take a closer look at the state of the world economy.

Japan is in a recession, the United Kingdom is stuck in a triple dip, and the European Union hasn't managed to resolve a single one of its issues—even in Germany, industrial production is falling (the Federal Reserve actually signaled a recession back in 2013), while China shows growth, though even they face massive hurdles: poor bank placements, a real estate bubble, weak domestic consumption (Chinese oil demand growth is estimated at only 3.4%—strange, considering their supposed GDP growth of 7-9%), export struggles, stalling foreign investment, and a slowdown in capital inflows...

That leaves us with the USA. They claim a solid growth rate of 2-3%, but we have to note that this is a nominal rate; there isn't actually any real growth happening.

To elaborate, let's look at the granular data: Small business owners—the primary drivers of job creation—are pessimistic, and activity has dropped to its lowest level since 2008. This is driven entirely by uncertainty regarding the business climate—tax hikes, regulation, and potential instability surrounding budget cuts and fiscal policy.

On the other hand, rail freight in the USA is declining, and food stamp recipients have increased by a million in just the last two months. This doesn't exactly look like a genuine recovery.

Ultimately, the situation provides little foundation for the optimism being peddled by Goldman Sachs analysts regarding the recovery of the American and global economies.

What really fails to hold water, however, is the rise in interest rates—specifically the shift from real negative rates to real positive ones.

Undoubtedly, this would lead to decreased interest in buying gold; yet, given the Federal Reserve's policies regarding the IRS and FBI, which Bernanke explained several times as necessary, the question is whether this can be achieved without collapsing the budget.

Such a scenario would make it nearly impossible for overleveraged nations—like Japan, the USA, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and others—to service their debts...

Of course, one could also view Goldman Sachs' narrative through the lens of their proverbial "upside-down chicken" approach, where they constantly lure clients into behaviors contrary to their own best interests just to maximize their own profits—a legend that has long circulated 😍 throughout the capital markets.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...128_ghold1.png

This really doesn't require any commentary—

hollowmoose21 said:I'm digging what JS has to say about it:

A guy with that kind of cash is both brilliant and lethal. You don't want to be standing in his path.
He’s basically at the top of the food chain in the financial world. He'd probably take that as a compliment.
😁

It’s true—what always keeps me on my toes is the timing of news like this. Once these stories start circulating through the mainstream media, it’s usually a sign that the insider has finished accumulating and is simply waiting for the retail crowd to provide liquidity at the ask...😍

I feel I owe everyone a bit of clarification here—mostly because I have no interest in helping lure small investors into a trap. That’s what the paid shills are for...🤣.........😂

If anyone is looking for junior miners (with a 3-4 year horizon), you might want to look into this one:
MUX 3.82 8.22%

I picked it up at $4.42, and even added more recently at $3.50—it took a sudden dip because they issued rights at $2.25.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Just like what quiettrucker12 was saying earlier👍

Honestly, I think quiettrucker12 deserves at least three thumbs up if lonehawk5 is only getting one...😂

Twitter @Sprott

RT @Sprott: Eric Sprott: Federal Reserve lends $100 billion in gold. Now likely in USA, USA or an ETF. Good luck getting it back!