Posts by Thomas Nelson25

Nicholas Watson said:I was watching some analysis by Peter Schiff where he argues that the West isn't really buying from China so much as they're just borrowing. He was specifically talking about the USA. His point is that since that debt is never actually going to be repaid, it doesn't really matter if these two sides keep dragging each other down into a recession; the end result is pretty much the same.

China is leaning into globalization, so I don't see any massive conflict or war coming down the pike.

That's one way to look at it... but China is just a player in a much bigger game. (And you can't exactly quit the game—you just play.)

Russ, if you've been following along, is telling a completely different story.
Just the same old tale from centuries ago.

By the way—this example pretty much explains it all—the Russian auto industry is basically regressing to 80s tech.
Meanwhile, China... yeah.

gentlestag15 said:The Chinese don't stand a chance near Taiwan right now.
They'd have to move a million—maybe even several million—soldiers over to an island 62 miles far off their coast
and Taiwan actually maintains one of the most modern militaries on the planet.
As it stands, this all feels like a lot of posturing without any actual threat.

If they can't pull off a peaceful integration, force isn't gonna work either.

The main thing is for the Russians to realize they’re pushing away perfectly good customers—or rather, great buyers.
So really, the ball is in their court, not Europe's. (Invest in war and win)

Joshua Myers432 said:Russia likely thinks Europe is bluffing, and honestly, they aren't wrong. Europe can't function without Russian gas and oil, and Russia can't survive without the European market. At least not in the short to medium term. Long-term, Europe can find new suppliers and Russia can find new buyers, but building out all that new infrastructure and making those investments takes massive amounts of time and money.

It looks like two cars barreling toward each other at full speed, both waiting to see who blinks first and swerves. Sanctions hit Russia harder, but their population is tougher. Sanctions hit Europe less, but their people are incredibly spoiled.

Europe could probably hold out for a few months before Putin actually runs out of cash.

It’s a tricky balance—you have to prep for winter, but if we're going for total sanctions, the sooner the better.

If the Russians manage to oust Putin, things might get back to normal pretty fast.
I mean, we aren't expecting some miracle or a complete 180 in Moscow's policy—plus, you've still got the whole aftermath between Ukraine and Russia to deal with. Not to mention the reconstruction.

There are plenty of scenarios. etc.

Most of what they sent over were anti-personnel versions (targeting personnel) — so the real question is how much punch that 'warhead' actually packs. It probably just uses fragmentation rounds.

It’s best used to take out commanders and mess with logistics. Basically, you hit their morale... or their motivation.

Melissa Bailey5 said:Honestly, I'm starting to get the feeling those first 18 howitzers in the last shipment were mostly just meant for training purposes.

Kamikaze drones—they kind of act like little cruise missiles, I guess—seem to be making their big debut in actual combat conditions.And it looks like they might just be the future of warfare.

Yeah, I'm with you on that.

They’ll need to get up to speed fast.
Aiming the guns—using radar, drones... satellites.
Basically, tracking the Z orchestra in real time and space.

Nancy Gomez26 said:The sheer variety of hardware they're throwing together... it's going to be a logistical nightmare.

Best used at night, especially if it's raining... and moving in small groups rather than big convoys. Rail, aviation (?)...

I see a bigger issue with the crews, the operators, and the coordination—since this means the Ukrainian military is stepping up to a whole new level of doctrine and tactics on the fly, right in the middle of combat, all while trying to hold back Putin's offensive.

Kamikaze drones (they act like little cruise missiles) seem to have found their premier moment in actual war. And honestly? They look like the future of warfare.

Adam Lee13 said:Sure, a factory can flip from one shift to three overnight on paper, but you still need like 3-4 months just to get the workforce trained up and ready to go...

(Biden was recently saying... ramp up production)

It’s probably all about automating those production lines.
Basically a capital investment thing, plus most of these companies are private anyway.
Americans (specifically the defense industry) are definitely going to cash in on this crisis and war.
Then you've got the Britons and the Swedes too.
Though maybe the biggest winners (as a new player on the global stage) will be the Turks.

The response to Putin is carving out more than 2% for defense spending.

Looks like he might respond by modernizing his nuclear arsenal for the 21st century.
Unless they actually remove him from power—because what he's doing is literally disrupting business and civilization globally.

Benjamin Taylor6 said:Look, Ukraine is a massive country—we aren't talking about some small territory here. All this stuff being sent over? It’s basically a drop of ink in the ocean; it just gets swallowed up by the sheer scale of the conflict almost immediately.

The training side of things—handling all that Western gear like howitzers and tanks—is actually becoming a bigger headache than just finding enough soldiers or ammo.

If this war drags on—especially if it hinges on the Donbas—they really need systematic technical training. Combine some Western doctrine with the combat experience they've already picked up on the ground, and they'll be set.

Plus, their air power is still a major weak point.
It's going to be a real struggle to keep Russian planes or missiles away from the areas they actually control.

Christian Torres3 said:The total tonnage for non-Black Sea powers is also capped, and those massive carriers blow right past that limit.

I know drifting mines are a massive headache right now.
Is NATO (specifically the smaller vessels) actually patrolling the area at the moment?

Kate Lewis3 said:Just drop a link if you find it, I can't track this down.

But look, if that price tag is actually real for 100 PzH-2000s—which seems sketchy since they're supposedly offloading their entire fleet while refusing to sell the Marder vehicles just sitting there waiting to be scrapped—then the math is totally blown. We're talking $17 million per unit? When we picked up ours for under $3.5 million? Even if the production cost for a brand-new PzH-2000 is around $10 million, I don't buy that the ammo alone accounts for that massive gap. Not even with missiles included.

Unless, of course, someone is taking a massive kickback under the table.

There's also a wheeled version out there.
RCH155

Word is there’s some massive push coming—a full-scale assault on Ukrainian forces over in the East.
Obviously, that calls for a countermove, solid tactics, and a few different strategic plays depending on how things shake out.
Basically, we need the generals and planners on it.
And yeah, I mean the folks in the West, too.

I was digging through an analysis earlier that suggested the Russians can't afford to cross or even reach the Dnieper. (They already struck out trying to hit Northern or Central Ukraine, after all.)
But man, if they actually pull that off, it means the Ukrainian military would have to retreat and surrender ground they're currently holding. Not to mention the heavy casualties that would come with it.

Not bad for what it’s meant to do.
But let’s be real—it isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse.
So, does this mean the Czechs are just sending tanks... for now?!

The Briton is being specific here, but which armored vehicles is he actually talking about?

Benjamin Taylor6 said:In an open field, sure—provided they're spread out and backed up by infantry and other support branches. It reminds me of this movie I watched about a year ago, detailing a British push through the countryside in Belgium back in 1944. The Allies moved in these long, drawn-out columns, way too far from the towns where they actually needed help. The tanks couldn't push forward because the infantry just couldn't keep pace. They were stuck, essentially sitting there while soldiers were getting slaughtered in a town ten miles down the road.
The way the Russians have been deploying their armored units so far is just pure insanity: you roll down a highway in a massive, stretched-out column without securing your flanks? It makes zero sense.

A bit more basic, but the point remains...

A tank is basically a mobile fortress—a turret with a gun, on tracks.

If you’re attacking (with tanks) a stronghold (like bunkers), a city, you have to close the distance. (Or at least be incredibly precise and destructive with your aim).
A Fortification—if it's built right—has the upper hand against a tank. It's tougher.
Losses are just part of the deal in war. Just look back at World War II—the first real industrial-scale conflict.

Bottom line: any kind of armored vehicle with a gun and machine guns is going to be a godsend for the Ukrainians.

casualtiger2 said:Why not just send a few more Bayraktars to take out that bridge connecting Crimea and Russia?

They'd need to use planes—aiming right for those arches, specifically their supports.
You'd need a massive amount of explosives... hit them hard enough so the whole thing starts collapsing under its own weight.

Gerald Chavez7 said:So, basically, we managed to stop MANPADS proliferation during the chaos in Libya—even though they had the most advanced Igla systems at the time—but now we're just going to let Ukraine start shuffling them around (much like what you mentioned regarding the Korzikanci 🤣)... I wouldn't exactly go that far 🙄

As soon as they control the borders—even with a war and refugees pouring through--
Those little groups with their various agendas and all that.
Basically, they have agencies dedicated entirely to that task.

But honestly? After the war, weapon proliferation could definitely be an issue—kind of like what we dealt with here in the States after our own conflicts. But hey, that’s a problem for future them. Right now, they're just trying to survive, and that only happens if they keep fighting.

bluemason3 said:It’s not exactly a technological miracle. The whole point is just to bump up the odds of the crew surviving if they hit a mine. It isn't a 100% guarantee—usually, people still end up injured. You just lose the vehicle instead of the people inside.

It's not like you're planning to cruise through a minefield on purpose. It's more about minimizing casualties when you run into an ambush or stumble upon an unmarked mine by accident.

The vehicle has a specially designed chassis and undercarriage to redirect the force

Just look at how things work... a mine-clearing tank can push that roller attachment in front of it without any issues, and the crew stays safe. It sounds wild to me, but hey, if it works in the field, it works.

It's all about the blast wave and the pressure on the body or internal organs.

Dana Robinson4 said:back when they used to buy.....

Take Saudi Arabia, for instance; they managed to stay incredibly secure by swiftly and easily freezing those billions belonging to Russia... which suddenly made the Yuan look like a much more enticing alternative, wouldn't you agree?

Plus, we can't ignore the reality that if everything stays status quo, you're still effectively losing 8% of your purchasing power every single year to inflation, right?

Anyway, that's a whole other rabbit hole—gold, crypto, real estate, land, all that stuff..

Russia is trying to drum up demand for the Ruble, while using Euros and Dollars for trade with so-called "friendly nations."
Putin's main goal is dodging sanctions—starting with China and India, then moving on to anyone else willing to trade and get what they need from him.
That's why we're seeing this massive spike in diplomatic maneuvering toward those specific countries right now.
Of course, their end game is just profiting off this war and crisis—basically grabbing energy at a discount.
They probably wouldn't mind seeing a weakened Russia in the long run, too.

And then he just says it out loud, totally blunt...
The European Union isn't the center of the universe...yet they still act like it's the,
Global anchor. The gold standard.

Honestly, I think Putin and the White House are finally starting to realize how much of a mess this war actually is.