Posts by Melissa Rivera5

Nathan Thomas12 said:The world needs a stable, liquid currency—if the dollar vanished tomorrow, the global economy would just flatline. I mean, what are the Chinese supposed to do? Trade in Canadian Forints or Mexican Dinars? Besides Americans, the Chinese actually rely on a rock-solid dollar just as much.
So yeah, arguing about what happens if the dollar collapses is pretty much pointless.

Man, if the dollar actually goes under, we’re already dealing with a total global meltdown. At that point, worrying about what the next world currency will be isn't even in my top 100 problems.

hollowdriver13 said:Look, monarchies aren't actually crazy enough to just ditch the petrodollar. It’s basically the only real global currency that everyone—including Iran, that one guy who absolutely hates everything 😁 about the USA—actually accepts. It's the ultimate source of wealth for all of them.

And let's be real, Russia barely lasted three months before they were like, "Okay, fine, we were just messing around. Dollars and Euros are totally cool if you guys want to buy stuff."

So, I don't know, depends on the situation. The Russians said they wouldn't give up the dollar even if things went nuclear.

Frank Davis3 said:I mean, what kind of logic is there in paying 200 rubles for a single dollar when you could officially swap it for something closer to 70?

Well, because that usually only happens on paper, you know? In the real world... I guess it's just not how it works. Like, even if that's the official rate, a bank isn't actually gonna hand over a dollar for just 70 rubles.

analogbear5 said:The value of the Ruble is backed by energy exports. The Dollar isn't—not since it was basically sabotaged by the old regime in Mexico.

Only an idiot would predict a 30% drop. Don't listen to idiots.

Honestly, I guess nobody actually knows the true state of the Russian economy at any given moment. It's a huge question whether even Putin knows himself. From what we saw before the war, and even some stuff recently about why there aren't enough plane orders, it feels like Putin lives in his own little parallel dimension where everyone just lies to his face. And then they turn around and lie to us.

Nancy Gomez26 said:I have no clue how chips are actually fabricated, but it is clearly one of those domains where money alone won't buy you entry. There are various technologies that cannot be simply cloned; they require years of mastery, necessitating a culture of extreme secrecy to protect that intellectual property. Look at jet engine technology. Sure, Russia and China can build a jet engine, but they will likely suffer from higher fuel consumption and shorter lifespans compared to Western counterparts. Even in the West, only three major manufacturers possess the independent capability to develop a jet engine from scratch—and even then, they frequently collaborate on new models or rely on external partners for specific components. Most cutting-edge development is built upon the foundation of previous generations. It is also worth noting that ironing out "teething problems" in new engine designs often drags on for years after deployment. No matter how much expertise or tech you possess, you cannot predict every variable; you end up fixing things on the fly during active service.
I suspect the fundamental issue for China and Russia is retaining talent. The people who truly possess high-level skills—those with the drive and capacity to learn—are mobile. They gravitate toward environments that offer more freedom. Meanwhile, those with less specialized skill sets lack the mobility to leave, so they stay put. Look at the situation in Russia: who fled following the mobilization? It was the most capable individuals, the ones whose expertise allows them to find work anywhere in the world. Those left behind, with nowhere else to go, are the ones who end up stuck in a trench in Ukraine.

Exactly. With a lot of stuff, you can have all the money in the world, but you still won't be able to mass-produce it. And honestly, Russia doesn't even have that much money.

wearytrucker22 said:What kind of FAB are we talking about here? A couple billion dollars is basically the price tag of a high-end water purification system.
TSMC actually has the know-how, the connections, and the patents. Plus, the US government has plenty of domestic firms packed with patents and essentially unlimited funding at their disposal.
President Joe Biden is joining the founder of TSMC on Tuesday to announce the opening of the company's second chip plant in Arizona, raising its investment in the state from $12 billion to $40 billion. Dec 6, 2022

Just a few years ago, TSMC needed about $20 billion just to expand a single FAB in Taiwan.

Russia or China couldn't replicate this with a slightly larger budget. It would take Russia roughly $200 billion to attempt it, while $100 billion might be enough for the Chinese project they're currently pouring money into.

And honestly? Not even the Taiwanese, Americans, Chinese, or Russians have a shot at pulling this off without the EU.

It’s not just about the money, though. It’s that this is incredibly specific knowledge that hardly anyone in the world possesses because you just can't learn it anywhere else. I'm not talking about the theory of how to make a processor, but the entire process—all those tiny implementation details, the actual manufacturing flow... man, it's intense.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Strategically speaking, putting all your eggs in one basket is reckless, especially when dealing with natural gas—a critical fuel for so many industries. Then again, who is going to foot the bill for the price gap created by an alternative ExxonMobil terminal? Without the steady flow from existing pipelines, that extra capacity would essentially sit there gathering dust. Furthermore, having just one terminal to satisfy Germany's massive demand is practically the same as having none at all. For our scale of consumption, however, that single terminal provides a perfectly viable alternative.
In my view, Germany would have been much better off securing pipeline alternatives from one or more suppliers in North Africa.

Yeah, exactly—it would just sit idle instead of being forced into use. I guess that's kind of the whole point of having strategic alternatives and reserves, right? You don't really ask who's paying for the extra cost of food or fuel reserves, because that's just not what they're there for.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Strategically speaking, putting all your eggs in one basket is reckless, especially when dealing with natural gas—a critical fuel for so many industries. Then again, who is going to foot the bill for the price gap created by an alternative ExxonMobil terminal? Without the steady flow from existing pipelines, that extra capacity would essentially sit there gathering dust. Furthermore, having just one terminal to satisfy Germany's massive demand is practically the same as having none at all. For our scale of consumption, however, that single terminal provides a perfectly viable alternative.
In my view, Germany would have been much better off securing pipeline alternatives from one or more suppliers in North Africa.

I mean, that's definitely an option too.

I don't know if they were just trying to mess with everyone else in Europe, but from a strategic standpoint, being totally dependent on just one supplier is honestly insane. Things like ExxonMobil terminals and similar setups acting as "backups" are strategic moves—they don't necessarily have to make sense financially, but they just have to be there. It’s basically the same logic you'd apply to anything else that's vital for national security.

restlesseagle8 said:Oh, sure. And I guess this "intel" about weapons coming out of North Korea is coming from some totally reliable, top-tier source within the empire of lies? Right.

Yeah, straight from Russian sources. How could you possibly have known?!

restlesseagle8 said:So, look, all those sanctions they slapped on Russia thinking they’d totally cripple their ability to fight? Well, it turns out economic activity only dipped by maybe 3%. And get this—Russia is running this whole conflict in Ukraine while spending just about 5% of their GDP on the military, and honestly, there isn't even a hint that they're going to back down anytime soon over the next few years. Meanwhile, the capacity for a war of attrition like this on the Ukrainian side is just... well, it's steadily draining away.

Yeah, sure. That's why they're out there begging North Korea for weapons and making moves to settle up in foreign currency.

Honestly, as soon as I see the whole "senile Biden" versus "statesman Trump" debate, I feel like everything is already obvious. Look, I don't give a damn about either of them, truly. But this whole idea that we're importing such retarded American policies—claiming that if Trump were in charge, Putin wouldn't have attacked Ukraine—is just pure childishness. I mean, POTUS doesn't freaking control Putin, and everyone has their limits when dealing with Russia.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Try attempting to purchase a non-Japanese vehicle in Japan, and you will quickly grasp the reality of domestic market protectionism. On the other hand, look at the European Union; they still maintain those specific tariffs on Japanese imports—wasn't it around 5% on all vehicles arriving from Japan? Even the Japanese struggled to move units in the USA until they began establishing local assembly plants; only then did they qualify as "domestic products." That is their version of a "free" and "open" market: everything is permitted, provided it doesn't dismantle the local manufacturer. Ultimately, massive swaths of domestic production simply migrated to China because the cost differential was too steep to resist.
The situation with the Chinese person is a different matter entirely, given that the entire system operates under the rule of a single political party—which is essentially a euphemism for slavery. Anything falling outside their ideological framework is either imprisoned or forced into exile. Those who remain are compelled to follow the party line, receiving subsistence wages for maximum labor. No matter how brutal that appears by modern standards, it is still considered progress compared to their circumstances fifty years ago.

Man, oh man... if the general public actually knew the kind of crap people have to deal with in China... ugh. I'll never forget when I was explaining some basic stuff regarding issues we were having at the firm—just standard procedures, really. I ended up getting in trouble because these idiots thought I was some kind of racist intentionally lying about Chinese people and how their market works, or the whole legal framework that makes all that nonsense function.

Carl Lee27 said:$64/MWh
☕

Inflation over in Europe also looks like it’s hitting its peak, and honestly, I think we're about to see it start sliding down pretty soon. Over in the USA, the peak happened way back during the summer, so now that growth is really starting to lose steam. Look at France—they hit 6.7% in December when everyone was bracing for 7.3%, and then you've got Germany coming in at 8.6% for December instead of that expected 9%.

The sheer volume of comments from our neighbors on this forum claiming that the West is going to get absolutely crushed in this economic showdown—and that we'll all have to make massive sacrifices just to fund, let's be honest, a totally pointless effort to help Ukraine—has been nothing short of surreal. And even though those people aren't hanging around here anymore, you can still find that exact same kind of doom-and-gloom chatter dominating their own boards. It's honestly hilarious. In the end, the actual sacrifices will be minimal, because to actually beat the Russians, you only really need about 0.1-0.2% of the GDP of Europe and the USA, especially since a huge chunk of that is just going toward surplus military gear and tech that’s basically thirty years old anyway.

And let's not forget that NATO didn't even go into Ukraine. Lol.

hollowdriver13 said:https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2022/12/2...-rossii-a29186

"Chinese banks have joined the sanctions against Russia"

Oh boy! I guess Russia and China are just gonna totally wreck the West now... oh wait, hold on a second...

heh. Like some crazy 42D chess move from Putin right at the start. It’s like they’ve been planning all this out for years, down to the tiniest detail.

George Robinson43 said:Who in their right mind would purchase equipment that either explodes mid-flight or falls straight out of the sky?
In fact, I suspect Western manufacturers will simply ramp up production of older models that were already slated for retirement, provided they can secure enough orders.

It’s the same crowd that buys knockoff Nikes at a flea market. No joke. There’s always a market for cheap $13 jeans.

sykorian said:Mad respect for being real, both you and 👍Gerald Torres84
.
Honestly, everyone should just admit we're mostly just looking out for our own skin, rather than acting like we're "against all aggression" or doing this "for the kids" or whatever. It’s plain as day, and I wish the media would just say it without all the fancy packaging.

Thanks for being honest, that's really all I wanted to hear.

Look, we're looking out for ourselves, but yeah, we're also against aggression. I don't get why that isn't clear from what I wrote, or why you think those two things can't exist at once. It's pretty simple—this whole thing is an epic clusterfuck that I didn't ask for, and it's actually put me in some awkward spots since I have friends on both sides. But since it's happening anyway, obviously I'm gonna root for my side and what's good for me. And honestly, that's probably better for everyone else too, because it feels like maybe a tiny handful of people on this planet actually profit from this war, and nobody else.

sykorian said:I just pointed out the main thing, so I'm asking—don't you get that it's basically the same thing?

"Every dominant civilization has defined its own concept of order, always viewing itself as the center of the universe"

Man, it’s just not the same. I guess I'd honestly rather deal with the war in Ukraine—which was started by Russia, and they're the only ones to blame here—than have to watch a front line opening up in Washington, D.C., while a Russian-Mexican sphere of influence grows. Those idiots in The White House basically wanted to annex Ukraine, wipe out a whole nation, spread the fighting to a few more neighbors, and then move on to the Baltic. At the same time, they'd probably just hand Mexicans enough ammo to cause more chaos in the North America. Seriously, forget that. Just hit Russia with sanctions and let them starve.

Nicole James said:Honestly, keeping the house at 62 degrees is perfectly fine. Anything higher than that is really just a luxury. We aren't going to go broke over it.

I'm with you on that. Keeping things at 66 during the winter is perfectly okay, I guess. It's the people walking around in flip-flops when it's 80 out who have actual issues—well, they always have had issues. Even fifteen years ago, those folks were whining about the heating bills being too high. Like, seriously, give me a break...

wiredseal7 said:So nobody needs them just because we're having a mild autumn? Give it a minute—if a couple of cold fronts sweep in from the north, the mood shifts fast. Suddenly, those new regulations capping temperatures at 60-65 degrees become the "new normal."

Does it not bother you that Russia is basically wiping out all of Ukraine's infrastructure, leaving people to freeze? They're just basic terrorists, honestly... nothing better than ISIS.

Sam Alvarez4 said:Poland just declared Lavrov persona non grata. 🤣
They’ve blocked him from entering the country for the OSCE ministerial meeting scheduled for early December in Lodz...

The Russian Chancellor has been declared persona non grata at the OSCE summit in Poland
20:34

I mean, yeah, totally fair. It’d be pretty weird if a country that’s basically messing with European peace and flirting with WW3 and a nuclear holocaust actually showed up to an OSCE summit.