Posts by Michael Ortiz68

Morgan Morales4 said:Exactly. The way the media frames sanctions is that they're this grand tool meant to make the Russian people rise up and topple a criminal like Vladimir Putin. But honestly, if we're being real, how much effort was actually put into helping the people in Ukraine tackle the systemic corruption within their own borders? Because when you see stories about officials landing in foreign countries with suitcases full of cash, it really makes you stop and wonder what's actually going on behind the scenes. The whole idea that Putin is just going to collapse under pressure—especially while direct lines of communication between the US and Russia are staying wide open—just sounds... well, let's just say I'm not buying it.

I don't think anyone implementing these sanctions actually believes they’ll trigger Putin's downfall; if that happens, it's just a side effect, not the primary objective. The actual goal is to bleed the Russian economy dry over the long haul, specifically targeting their energy exports, which serve as the lifeblood for both their military machine and their general economy to the European Union. Anyone under the impression that Russia can simply pivot its entire export infrastructure overnight and maintain the same revenue streams clearly hasn't looked at the math.

Gerald Chavez7 said:https://twitter.com/GeorgZachmann/st...40761499713536



https://www.bruegel.org/publications...l-gas-imports/

Right now, the current trajectory for LNG imports in the European Union is basically covering 50% of what used to be Russian gas imports. By the 2025-27 window—if things keep moving this way—we’re pretty much done with importing Russian oil and gas altogether...

While the ultimate goal is set for 2030, there was a planned reduction of 20-30% targeted by 2023. Consequently, we will see very soon whether the European Union actually follows its own roadmap.

Carl Lee27 said:Well, if that’s the logic, then what? Everything just goes out the window! It’s exactly like what happened with Venezuela, where most of the world didn't bother with sanctions either. Because, let's be honest, we all know the deal—everyone acts like every part of the globe carries the exact same weight and importance, yet somehow it always turns out that only the West actually matters, while everyone else is just there for decoration.

Don't be like that; otherwise, there won't be any hot water or heating in German hospitals. 🙂

Lisa Jackson7 said:Look, that's all true, but there's a catch... every single one of those educated young guys with families who is just as much of a loss to Russia , and frankly, Russia is already facing long-term demographic collapse.
In the long run, this doesn't help anyone—not the current Western status quo, nor liberal or democratic values, etc.
It's a massive "fail state" sitting right on Europe's doorstep...

Eventually, Western countries are going to have to start worrying about their own demographics, regardless of what's happening with immigration.

The point stands, but the cause and effect aren't quite that linear: it isn't just that Russia (along with other Eastern European nations) is becoming a fail state due to mass emigration; rather, people are emigrating because their country has already become—or is rapidly becoming—a fail state.

vividfalcon31 said:I’m seeing more and more articles claiming that young Russians are fleeing to the West... So here’s my question: weren't these sanctions basically designed to trigger an uprising within Russia? Personally, I think we should just ban them from settling in the West altogether. I follow a few of their young YouTubers who talk about what life is like under sanctions in Russia, and they all seem way too chill about it—basically saying, "Things are fine for now, the sanctions aren't hitting me too hard, but if things get worse, I'll just move out of Russia." Like, are you kidding me? They should be barred from moving to Western Europe. On top of the refugees coming from Ukraine, now we're getting people from Russia who will further destabilize the EU—all while that little punk gets rid of his own traitors at the same time, which is exactly what he wants (destabilizing the EU and keeping his own backyard unified). Honestly, just ban the Russians from moving; let them deal with whatever mess their own repressive apparatus creates. I can't tell if Western politicians are just incredibly stupid or what. In the end, these measures won't actually destabilize Russia by causing protests, unemployment, or falling wages... instead, they'll just screw over the West (which is already being messed with by those insane epidemiological rules). And I'm not counting the US in "the West" here—they don't give a damn and are probably laughing in the faces of these idiots while fueling the fire, which will only lead to more destruction and more refugees.

Why would you want to ban them? Looking at various articles, most of these are educated young people with families who simply don't want to live under these conditions in Russia.

And right now, most of them are targeting countries with significant Russian minorities, like Georgia or Finland.

The West stands to benefit solely from having educated, more liberal Russians around. Someone posted a link earlier noting that after the USSR collapsed, there were about 900,000 scientists in Russia. Today, that number has dropped to roughly 350,000. I highly doubt they all moved to Africa to find work.

Europe and the USA could pick up the scientific elite from Russia and Ukraine, not to mention filling labor shortages in other sectors where the West is currently lacking workers.

Gerald Chavez7 said:Canada keeps pushing back against every single proposal—everything from aid for Ukraine to any kind of sanctions on oil and gas.

Then again, maybe it doesn't even matter—sanctions don't necessarily need to be at the European Union level to work...

Back in November, the Canadians inked a 15-year deal with ExxonMobil, supposedly on incredibly favorable terms. Now, they’re doing whatever it takes to ensure that deal stays intact.

Jerry Clark72 said:Fertilizer prices are up because the Russians started choking off the gas supply back in the fall, and you need gas to make fertilizer.

Now that fertilizer prices have spiked, grain prices follow suit, and eventually, we're going to see meat and dairy prices skyrocket too.

I see this as a massive hit to the average person's wallet. Especially here in the States, where food takes up such a huge chunk of the monthly budget.

The post I’m responding to tracks the spike in fertilizer costs over the last 4 years

Dana Robinson4 said:Fertilizer prices have skyrocketed by 400% in just four years, haven't they?

Which further proves this has absolutely nothing to do with the Russian invasion.

Jerry Clark72 said:It wasn't overnight, but calling it a "two-year process" is a stretch too. Things ramped up incredibly fast in just a few months.

And everyone knows it’s the government's fault and the endless money printing. Yet, somehow, nobody seems to be complaining that much. Not one single idiot who supported COVID mandates has lost an election yet.

The idea that this will all wrap up quickly because Russians will suddenly revolt is just naive. Sure, their economy is going to take a massive hit—that's a given—but don't hold your breath.

Personally, I don't think anyone actually expects an internal revolt. These sanctions feel more like a slow war of attrition. We won't see the true economic fallout of all this for quite a while—maybe five years down the line. Assuming this conflict doesn't drag on indefinitely, that's when we'll finally see if Russia has any legs left to stand on for future adventures.

We'll also get a clear picture of how successfully Europe managed to break its addiction to Russian energy and raw materials.

Jerry Clark72 said:Go to a Home Depot and take a look for yourself.

Construction material costs had already been climbing for months prior to the Russian invasion. It wasn't even some sudden spike.

Ethan Alvarez5 said:1:42 PM
Russian tankers move 600,000 tons of oil

On Monday, nine Russian tankers moved roughly 600,000 tons of oil through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, heading toward Germany, Turkey, Poland, and Greece...

The cargo is valued at $68 million 🤔

What's the big deal here?

Robert Barrett6 said:There are several factors at play here. That one is definitely part of it, but then you have the totally disrupted supply chains for Russia, the communication breakdowns, the business uncertainty, and all that.

However, there's a heavy emotional component involved because a significant number of owners and major shareholders live relatively close to the actual combat zones.

Everyone is used to proxy wars happening thousands of miles away in some distant corner of the globe. But nobody is prepared for a proxy war that has the potential to spill over into their own backyard. 311 miles

To use an analogy: this isn't about some bully getting into a fight at the pub down the street that you happen to own. This is a fight breaking out right on your own lawn. Now, that guy isn't going to be able to grab a drink at the pub anymore, so he might as well just make his own booze at home and drink whatever he has on hand.

True, though I'd argue your point is more of a direct rebuttal to Amy Diaz222's original post.

I would also suggest that public pressure—that desperate need to maintain a clean corporate image—has likely forced some companies' hands. A prime example is Coc Col, which stayed quiet for quite a while. As boldbison40 pointed out earlier: "all things considered, the Russian market just isn't worth all this headache."

Amy Diaz222 said:Regarding these sanctions .... 🤔

It is truly fascinating to observe how—perhaps almost every single corporation from the "West"—

—is "withdrawing," "fleeing," "abandoning," ceasing operations, or relocating away from Russia.... 🤔

A massive amount of questions are being forced upon us here ....

For instance: are these corporations—many of them absolute giants—really "suffering" because of those Maidan-style "revolutionaries" in Ukraine, causing them to "capriciously" exit Russia and walk away from their business—

—or is this actually being ordered? 😁

If this is (as is likely) an order, then we have to ask who, how, why, where, and how much, among other things.... 🤔

----

Up until now, "business" hasn't exactly been known for being "sentimental" or "sensitive" enough to "capriciously" abandon massive investments and established markets... 😁

It’s highly probable they simply realized that in an increasingly impoverished Russia, they won't be hitting their revenue targets anyway. By exiting now, they get to preserve their "righteous" image while pivoting their business elsewhere.

Jeremy Turner9 said:Brussels has a little suggestion for all Americans: ‘Why don’t you try imposing sanctions on Putin yourselves? It’s easy—just stop heating your homes.’
A high-ranking official from the European Commission recently floated the idea that any citizen within the European Union could effectively ‘get back’ at Putin by making minor personal sacrifices.

If we start implementing these kinds of mandates, we might as well just revert to a command economy...

Of course nounar would write a headline like that.

For those interested, the full plan is right here:

https://energy.ec.europa.eu/repowere...able-energy_en

At first glance, it sounds like a high-octane version of Fitfor55.

It is interesting how nuclear energy is barely even mentioned, all while Macron is busy announcing new nuclear plants in FR. Huehue.

Shell is cutting off gas and oil imports from Russia

So, what's the move now? 😕

boldcanyon14 said:For everyone whining about AD-Plastik:

A friend of mine works over at AD-Plastik, and they’ve actually switched (at least his department) to a four-day workweek just to cut costs.

The pandemic really hit them hard since car orders completely cratered.

That said, the management seems solid enough; they'll likely weather the storm. Personally, I think this interview was just an attempt to spin the reality of the situation and keep people calm.

We are fully aware of the external pressures and how volatile things are day-to-day. We are monitoring market shifts closely and doing everything possible to insulate our operations from the crisis. This is an unprecedented situation, and we hope it remains temporary.

urbanheron4 said:Not really. 😁 You're looking at Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Basically, you'd have to find a way through Turkey first, and then maybe things would move.

But we shouldn't write Russia off forever, either. If their government collapses and someone like Navalny takes over, everything could flip overnight. Though, how realistic is that? Not sure.

The Azerbaijani route also runs right through Turkey. It's pretty much impossible to bypass them.

Kyle Nelson2 said:It’s even happening in Israel

There was once a concept for an Israel-Cyprus-Greece pipeline alliance.

But that's been scrapped—for now.

urbanheron4 said:Yeah, those last nuclear plants were supposed to be decommissioned this year, but now? Probably not happening. The mess Germany made for itself was betting everything on renewables while trying to phase out fossil fuels and nuclear at the exact same time instead of doing it in stages. I think they even held a referendum on choosing renewables. They should have phased out fossil fuels gradually, replacing them with renewables to keep things sustainable, and then moved toward nuclear. But shutting down nuclear too fast created a massive gap they couldn't fill. So, what happened? They ramped up fossil fuel production, which ended up spiking the very CO2 emissions they were trying to slash in the first place.

I read they're already in the process of shutting them down, so you can't just hit a kill switch and stop it. You'd need to execute a full phase-out before even considering restarting them in 2023 or 2024.

Thomas Nelson25 said:There's plenty of gas in South Africa

How did nobody think of that? 😲

Jokes aside, the resources are there, but Algeria has announced they might bump up production and transfers by about 9% over the next five years... which is nowhere near enough.