Posts by vividgull10

rapidranger54 said:If there is euphoria, it exists in the sense that there are millions of advertisements, billboards, newspaper spreads, TV spots, and even ads appearing right here on this forum.
I see you were particularly moved by that recent BlackRock commercial featuring those two hens, where one advises, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket." A classic proverb, indeed.

As for how much gold the public is actually selling, I honestly have no feel for it. Given this aggressive advertising blitz, one might conclude that the average American has already liquidated their holdings and that there isn't much buyback activity happening...
Is that what you meant?

I was thinking about how we've seen a massive surge in gold and silver buyback shops over the last couple of years. The fact that they're operating means one thing: they're buying low so they can sell high. The guy buying from them isn't waiting for a dip. In plain English, it's unlikely we're at the peak if everyone is busy buying up everything from the public.

just my 2 cents

quiettrucker12 said:They're all commodities. Goldman Sachs has been riding this wave for 12 years now. This whole manipulation talk always finds a home in silver because the silver market is tiny—it’s actually possible to move the needle there. Most people realize the gold market is massive, so they're more careful about peddling those nonsense theories. Now, your theory suggests someone manipulates silver to somehow control the price of gold and commodities in general through this tiny, microscopic market. That sounds like something you picked up from reading too much ZeroHedge.

The smart money sold in late April. They knew that parabolic moves stretching way above the 200-day moving average are a trap. Plenty of traders were looking for an exit but waited for "just a little more," and things would have absolutely cratered at $55 or $60 if silver hadn't hit roughly $50 an ounce first.

For anyone who needs a refresher, here is the silver chart from 2011:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01700166996

You can clearly see how silver went parabolic and stretched far beyond its 200-day line. Those kinds of blow-off tops are the biggest danger to any bull market. The best way for a bull market to stay healthy and go high is to avoid going parabolic in the first place. So, if we're talking about manipulation, the real "rigging" would be forcing a parabolic spike, not the subsequent crash. That's Trader 101. Pullbacks that don't turn into full-blown parables (like what we're seeing in gold right now) are actually great for a bull market. If luck is on our side, we might see another major correction like this in two years, followed by one final surge toward the end of the decade that ends in a terminal parabola. Eventually, people will decide other things—like stocks—have become cheap, and they'll rotate out of expensive commodities into something else. That's just how the cycle works.

Exactly... in a healthy bull market, buying the dips is a winning play. But if you aren't already positioned when the stampede starts, you're smarter off waiting, switching to contrarian mode, and looking for a reversal or at least a deeper pullback.

Fundamentals matter in the long run, sure. But when it comes to actual trading, current psychology and market sentiment are everything. And those can be extremely, extremely irrational.🙂

Look, it's not really about "money" in the traditional sense.
It definitely has a history as a store of value. When you factor in its scarcity and durability, you get the main reasons why people treat it as a safe haven.

As for the actual value of the dollar, anything you buy with cash effectively tracks how much that cash is losing its punch. That’s basically what the annual inflation rate is measuring. You don't need to look at gold to understand that specific metric.

But when it comes to tradition—specifically being widely accepted as a fundamental medium of exchange—gold and oil aren't in the same league. After all, oil has been around for maybe a century, while gold has been doing this for thousands of years.

quiettrucker12 said:The Bull market hasn't hit the average person yet. Right now, we're in the phase where they're squeezing gold out of people through various buyback programs. Of course, by the final stage, the "little guy" will get burned again because they'll be buying at the absolute peak after selling everything while it was still cheap.

Exactly... the average person is stuck in a brutal bear market.

rapidranger54 said:I will likely look like a fool in your eyes once the gold euphoria hits—that inevitable boom and all that—but to me, it feels far too much like the real estate bubble from ten years ago...
gold is just metal...if you want something durable that won't rust, there's aluminum or stainless steel...just kidding.
to me, this looks like yet another mechanism to siphon money from the public through the media and the banks, all designed to enrich a select few...

There's zero euphoria here. I haven't bet on a single investment instrument, nor does it cross my mind to defend one. An investment is only as good as the cash it puts in your pocket. Period.

Based on what I'm seeing right now, my take is that it's a solid investment (talking about physical gold and silver; I trade "paper" assets less frequently). I could be dead wrong.
I'm currently short on silver (not physical, obviously), but long-term, I think being long is a smart move.

As for the general public... just for the sake of discussion, without trying to convince anyone: if this is the peak, look around. How many people do you actually see selling off their gold right now? Do you really think someone orchestrated things so that the average person sells at the absolute top? (Rhetorical question.)

PS.
No reason to feel like an idiot... we're just talking. 😉

Hey everyone

I've been lurking here for a bit because I think it's high time people stop overlooking this type of investment.
Personally, I’m leaning toward silver right now. Even if I'm looking at the long haul—mostly just to preserve value—I doubt you can go wrong picking either silver or gold.

The real headache is the state of precious metals here in the States. I still need to figure out the simplest, cheapest way to start building a stash. There's info everywhere, but since I don't personally know anyone who actually deals with this stuff, I'm pretty skeptical of every corner shop claiming they "work with gold." This is our money and our future we're talking about.

As for prices and what's coming next, I don't have much of a dilemma. If you strip away the speculation, investing in precious metals is my most reliable bet for the long term (assuming you accept that nothing is 100% certain). All I need to do is track two things: the US Dollar money supply and gold prices. In my opinion, the crisis of faith in fiat currency is right around the corner.