Nicole James said:The fact that Russia is receiving military equipment could serve as a perfectly valid justification for imposing sanctions on China...
Honestly, that’s almost brilliant. We’d crush inflation almost overnight, but the trade-off would be unemployment rates looking just as grim as they were during the COVID era—only this time, we wouldn't have the Federal Reserve printing money to bail us out. 😁
Brenda Murphy3 said:Yeah, great idea: just beat him up, snatch his wallet, and then quit your job on the spot. And that's exactly what happened to Russia...
You have to be incredibly biased or a total troll to actually believe that economic sanctions don't work or won't have a devastating impact over the next few years.
But hey, whatever... I guess everyone’s entitled to their own little delusions...
Alooo, they aren't an instant fix for ending this conflict quickly. We should have been pouring every bit of available weaponry into Ukraine yesterday, and we need to start mass-producing new gear immediately because, clearly, we're going to need it. ☕
darkrider55 said:But aren't they? They definitely got crippled a bit over in the Kharkiv Oblast, didn't they? 🤔
Well, they're being neutralized through force. Ukrainians didn't just sit around waiting for an oil embargo to kick in back in December; they took action right now.
The only way to deal with an aggressor is with force—economic sanctions are just far too slow to be effective in the heat of the moment. It’s like if someone were to physically assault your wife, and your response was to protest by taking their wallet. It just doesn't add up, does it? ☕
Carol Johnson21 said:Partial mobilization was mentioned this morning around 7:00 AM. Now we’ll see the surge toward the Finnish border, an influx of the unfit, or as our colleague @Terry Green3 reports, a sudden shortage of Software Engineers. The Russians are "rising up," alright—but they're running for the exits, not hitting the streets in protest.
Look, I personally heard von der Leyen on TV claiming that sanctions would completely cripple the Russian war machine.
Just as I suspected, those sanctions aren't having any real impact at all. A "hungry" Russia would have likely risen up in protest the moment mobilization was even mentioned. ☕
I’m all for finding a solid solution to the crisis, I really am, but we can't just ignore the fact that we’re still reeling from the fallout of COVID-19 and the massive inflation that whole mess triggered. It hasn't even been six months since the dust settled, and honestly? The timing on this feels completely off. ☕
boldotter2 said:During this period, the European Union might be short on energy, but they still have N billion Euros tucked away in their pockets.
And that’s the crux of it.
I wouldn't say they're "holding" it if we slide straight into a recession. Besides, there's already talk of 1.5 billion Euros in guarantees being floated, not to mention the roughly 100 to 200 billion Euros in printed cash flowing through the system via subsidies. Honestly, just here in the States, we're looking at spending about 1.5 billion Euros in total on subsidies by the end of the year—money essentially printed during the pandemic era—and heaven knows how many hundreds of millions will flow to Exelon through those various guarantees.
The lion's share of that capital is eventually going to end up in Norway, the USA, Alzheimer's research, Central Asia, Qatar, or China. This means the Euro is going to be under constant pressure because we're buying all of that stuff using Dollars. Meanwhile, our domestic industry can't export high-value goods at those prices because the developed markets are teetering right on the edge of a recession. I believe China's GDP growth is hovering near 0% on a quarterly basis; do you really think the Volkswagen Group can maintain its current output levels over there? I highly doubt it, unless Xi pulls off some kind of miracle.
How exactly are we supposed to navigate this without triggering hyperinflation while simultaneously avoiding a recession?
I mean, what’s the issue with comparing the economies of the "collective West" and the Russian Federation while they're locked in this conflict? It seems pretty obvious to everyone that Russia is headed for an economic meltdown, but honestly, no kidding, Sherlock. We’re already sitting here tallying up the losses on the Western side—losses that are already hitting hundreds of billions of Euros—and debating how we're even going to weather the storm. ☕
Reducing this whole situation to just Hitler is a logical fallacy if you ask me. Back then, the Reich was fighting over energy resources—like the Caspian Sea—and they certainly didn't have nuclear warheads at their disposal.
Sure, slapping sanctions on the elite makes sense, and sending weapons to the Ukrainians is one thing, but we should have kept the gas and oil flowing just to let the Russians deal with their own mess. Even Khodorkovsky argues that's the way to go.☕
The whole landscape of energy trading here in the States is staring down a massive bottleneck. Honestly, if we don't see some major shifts in how things are handled, the entire system could just grind to a halt. It’s a precarious situation, and I can't help but feel like we're walking on thin ice right now.According to reports from ExxonMobil, governments are stepping in to provide massive liquidity injections—we're talking at least $1.5 trillion—just to cover margin calls. It’s honestly staggering when you think about it. The biggest energy crisis in decades is sucking up capital just to guarantee trades because the market volatility is getting so wild. It feels like we're watching a massive structural shift happen right before our eyes.
"Even though the actual physical market seems to be holding its own, we're still going to need some serious liquidity support," remarked Helga Haugane, the senior VP for gas and power over at ExxonMobil. She went on to mention that their estimate—which puts the requirement at a staggering $1.5 trillion just to prop up derivatives trading—is actually being "conservative."
ExxonMobil is actually predicting that governments will be forced to step in with guarantees worth about $1.5 trillion just to deal with parity issues. It’s a massive figure, isn't it? Just incredible how much capital we're looking at here.
Man, I’m telling you, this is going to be just like those massive shipbuilding projects back in the States, only cranked up on pure steroids. 🙏🙏
Take the esteemed economist Daniel Lacalle, for instance. He took aim at those "creative" little proposals coming out of the EU bureaucracy, essentially telling everyone, "Be afraid. Seriously, be very afraid."
We really should have let the little guy out to play and troll them; it would have shown the Chinese and the Indians exactly how unreliable their partners actually are. By slapping on these preemptive sanctions, we’ve basically just taken a swing at Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi, while they just laugh at us in Africa—and guess what? Not one of them gives a damn about these sanctions. Even MBS and the Gulf elites are going to squeeze us for massive premiums on their oil like never before.
Sure, the little guy might have eventually backed down, but we would have won the PR war on a global scale—and let's be honest, in today's world, PR is everything. As it stands, we haven't gained a single thing from this move, yet here we are, left holding the bag. The cost of this conflict for the European Union is going to be measured similarly to how we handled COVID-19—which means we're looking at inflation hanging around for at least another three to five years after the fighting stops. ☕
Goldman Sachs is suggesting that oil prices will likely climb to $125 a barrel in 2023, even with the recent G7 agreement to implement a price cap on Russian crude.
The bank warned on Friday that any price ceiling would essentially be "bearish in theory but bullish in practice" regarding oil prices, as Moscow might respond by cutting exports to G7 nations.
"Much like what happened in the natural gas market, Russia could decide to strike back by cutting off G7 buyers and throttling production, which would drive global prices even higher while boosting their own revenues," noted Damien Courvalin, who leads energy research at Goldman Sachs. "Today's announcement doesn't change our bullish outlook for oil prices."
The G7—which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—announced on Thursday that they would implement a price cap on Russian oil by December 5th.
A billion here, ten billion there... it’s like some magical money factory where elves are just sitting at printers going *brrrrrrrrm*...
Swedish officials announced over the weekend that they have issued 23 billion euros in guarantees for Nordic energy providers to head off any potential technical hiccups. Meanwhile, on Sunday, Finland rolled out a package consisting of 10 billion euros in loans and guarantees specifically designed to protect the companies that keep society running smoothly.
Terry Green3 said:The price hike isn't even the real issue here; the real problem is that contracts are being canceled and they might stop supplying gas altogether. Legally speaking, General Petroleum is obligated to take those people on. It’s essentially the same as having your electricity cut off mid-sentence.
The US Federal Government has to step in and do something about this somehow.
I honestly think they'll just nationalize whatever scraps are left of those little utility companies and start supplying gas at below-market rates. Of course, we'll all end up footing the bill for those deficits together once things stabilize—I'm guessing somewhere around 2026 or 2027.😁
People love to talk about global droughts, but then you see these insane deluges in Pakistan that actually create massive lakes spanning 62 miles. It’s really all about these extremes. One minute everything is bone dry, and the next, you have temperatures drop so sharply that the entire power grid just completely collapses—kind of like what happened back in Texas, which is supposed to be one of the most advanced states in the USA.
I’m seeing all over Twitter that small business owners across the West in the European Union are absolutely drowning under bills that are triple what they used to be. Honestly, just give them a call on their landline and tell them to take a deep breath—everything is going to work out eventually.
The fact that capacity utilization is high doesn't mean much if they don't get massive subsidies, debt forgiveness, or some kind of freeze on payments. Let's not forget that those huge stimulus checks during COVID-19 were what pushed us halfway to this current inflation rate, while that little gnome in the administration pushed us through the other half. ☕