Posts by Nathan Evans78

One day you're looking at a company needing maybe 7 or 8 billion, then the finance folks start talking about "just a few" billion, and before you know it, step by step, they could somehow balloon those deficits into the trillions by next winter. 🤣

The American energy provider NextEra Energy has requested a multi-billion dollar loan from the government. According to CEO Veli-Matti Reinikkala, the company is facing much higher collateral requirements when purchasing power due to skyrocketing electricity prices across European markets.

How quickly those storage reserves get drained is going to depend heavily on how cold this winter gets and whether we get enough wind to keep those turbines spinning. If both of those factors turn out to be unpredictable, don't expect gas prices to drop anytime soon.

Honestly, we’re getting pretty lucky right now because a lot of the heavy industrial players have scaled back production, which has helped ease some of the pressure. But if you ask me, the whole thing smells fishy. It feels like someone either made a massive miscalculation, or we're looking at a massive scam on a European Union scale—kind of like the mess we've been seeing over at ExxonMobil. ☕

It’s absolute chaos over in Los Angeles right now—NextEra Energy is trading at a full 10% premium compared to just a couple of days ago. 🙏

Lisa Jackson7 said:If the USSR could collapse, then Putin's Russia can too—not saying when, but... once they get weak enough economically that the elites start turning on each other, all those old questions from the 90s will resurface. Hopefully, this time The West actually has some better answers ready.

The USSR didn't just collapse overnight; it was crumbling for over five years. Ukraine doesn't have that kind of luxury, and neither does Europe. ☕

Anthony Hill5 said:It is blindingly obvious that you have been asleep at the wheel for the past year.

Honestly, it's the same story with everyone else jumping into the natural gas market right now in a total panic. It's wild—everyone acted like they knew what was coming for years, yet here we are. Prices are skyrocketing exponentially, and nobody had the foresight to say, "Hey, we might have actually messed this up."

At the end of the day, whether there are sanctions in place or not, we’re left standing out in the cold with nothing to show for it. With Brent sitting at $102 against the dollar, you see exactly what happens when your negotiating leverage is basically non-existent. ☕

hollowdriver13 said:I don't need a crystal ball; I just need to look back at the headlines from the second half of 2021. ☕

August 21st.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/russ...ompletion.html

European piped Natural gas supply from Russia Has slowed in recent Weeks , raising questions about The potential causes behind The drop and its implications for Global gas markets

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityin...elarus-transit

Russian gas flows to Europe remained AT 2021 lows an analysis of flow data from S & P Global Platts Analytics showed

The Main reason for The lower pipeline deliveries was reduced supply via Belarus, with total flows into Poland amounting to just 1.14 Bcm. That compared with a 2021 peak of 3.24 Bcm in January.

The Low flows via Belarus and its impact on total supply , which tally with Gazprom's own data showing a continued Low level of gas sales in Europe Last Month , lent support to European gas prices.

And there are just as many articles like that as there were back in 2021. You're kidding yourself if you think the Russians wouldn't have shut off the tap if they weren't facing sanctions.
Honestly, they probably wouldn't have even turned it off if the West had just let them roll over and annex Ukraine. Maybe.
Luckily, Nathan Evans78 knows you can't take them at their word.
Anyway, tell me—did you buy some rubles? High-quality currency, super easy to convert, right? ☕

Were you drinking coffee when the European Union started buying gas on the spot market?

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/des...inancial-gains

Based on these articles, there isn't a shred of evidence that Putin personally went out and turned the valves himself. To me, it seems much more likely that ExxonMobil was simply selling exactly as much gas as the European Union was choosing to buy on the open market.

It looks like everyone from Jutarnji list to The Economist is asking the same big question: are these sanctions actually doing anything?

https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...ctions-working

hollowdriver13 said:“The EU basically shot itself in the foot with those sanctions” 🙂

Let's be real for a second—suppose we didn't even bother with sanctions. Let's just say the EU and the US kept providing military and financial aid to Ukraine while treating the gas and oil business as strictly "business as usual." Honestly, don't you think Putin would still have choked off the gas supply? He’d just use it as a political weapon to try and blackmail everyone into stopping the support for Ukraine.
It's not like this would be his first rodeo, either. He started setting the stage back in 2021 right after the decision to go to war was made, and we saw those gas deliveries start to tank during the second half of that year.
I’d bet money that's when we'd actually see people in the West getting riled up, yelling at politicians, “Hey, you didn't even sanction the aggressor, and we're still stuck with high gas and oil prices anyway!”

https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/re...kraine-fatigue

Support for Ukraine isn't actually flagging. Over 80% of Americans are willing to stomach higher energy costs if it means keeping up the support, and they believe we need to stick it out until the end.
We're seeing pretty much the same numbers across other Western nations, too. Public support for Ukraine isn't going anywhere.

Do you have a crystal ball or something? I'm telling you, it’s just business as usual. At 9:00 AM today, we saw nearly 5,000 contracts hitting at almost 320 EUR in Rotterdam.

Over at the Canadian Stock Exchange, where our buyers pull from—prices were trading at 285 EUR today.

All those headlines we've been seeing lately regarding energy prices here in the States? Honestly, that's nothing compared to what's coming. If things keep heading down this path, small business owners are going to see utility bills jump two or three times higher than even the worst forecasts we've heard.

Sure, the government can step in to help households, but the deficit created by doing that will be so massive we'll be paying off the fallout for years after this whole mess settles. ☕

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...acing-shutoffs

According to Bloomberg, we’re looking at a massive struggle right now—at least 20 million households, which is roughly one in six American homes, are falling behind on their utility bills. These skyrocketing electricity prices are triggering what's being described as the worst utility payment crisis we've ever seen.

I have to wonder, what on earth is going on over in New York City? I was looking at this chart yesterday, and checking their site again today, it looks like traders are panicking and buying up everything at $300+ per unit. It seems like these buyers haven't really grasped the situation yet; they're missing the fact that Europe has already secured its supplies for the winter, so things should actually be looking fine. 🙏 🙏

https://www.investing.com/commoditie...treaming-chart

The chief environmentalist over in Germany is out here claiming you don't even need to monitor things daily—says a wet rag will do the trick. Meanwhile, this old lady is driving an EV that probably cost her at least $70k, all while her house is decked out with high-end solar panels everywhere.

Man, it would be a lot simpler if we could just send Putin to the guillotine and call it a day. ☕

Thanks a ton, MBS,

Oil is creeping dangerously close to that $100 mark. 🤦

Paul Sanders5 said:Winter might get pretty brutal, but my kid sleeps soundly without worrying about some Russian missile crashing through their bedroom ceiling. Ukrainian kids just don't have that luxury.

That’s exactly why these sanctions aren't going anywhere; I don't care how cold it gets, what German industry wants, or how many pro-Russia trolls you guys act like.

Tick tock. Let's check back in a year or two and see where everyone actually stands and which countries are still holding it together.

So, the plan is to wash away ten years of mistakes by politicians in the European Union and America by bringing up Ukrainian children? Pathetic. This war is going to be won by Ukraine through their own sheer will and the weapons they hold, not through sanctions or letting our energy companies bleed us dry. ☕

Brenda Murphy3 said:And someone actually thinks they can deny those facts? 🤔

Look, nobody is even trying to argue against the points you're making... what people are actually denying is the blatantly idiotic context being used to frame everything, and the actual, brutal impact this is going to have on everyone's cost of living and the whole economy.

What, do you have a crystal ball or something? Back in 2008, Ivo Sanders insisted that the US wasn't facing any kind of crisis. The fallout from that delusion was a five-year depression and an exodus of 400,000 people from the country—which, if you think about it, caused ten times more damage than our major domestic conflicts. I mean, don't get me wrong, people weren't literally starving in the streets, which is obviously the most important thing, but the cost was massive. ☕

The benchmark German baseload power price for 2023 delivery climbed 3.1% to reach $519.89 per megawatt hour (MWh) at 16:02 GMT.

German baseload contracts covering November and December 2022, Q4 2023, Q1 2024, and the full years of 2025 and 2026 have all hit fresh peaks.

Over in France, the first-year contract also hit a high of $745/MWh, marking an 11.1% jump.

Earlier, the French contract for Q4 2022 touched a high of $1,135, while the Q1 2023 contract saw its first trades at $1,195.

The facts are simply relentless. ☕

Wednesday as gas and carbon contracts climbed and German utility Uniper announced

🤦

EUR/USD 1.08

Natural gas prices on the Henry Hub are holding steady at around $2.50 per MMBtu.

Nihi said:The term "whataboutism" actually traces its roots back to the United Kingdom, though I'd argue the modern way people weaponize it was really polished up by Soviet propaganda, wouldn't you say?
What exactly is your snippet supposed to prove here?

It proves that if you want to feed your goldfish, you use fish food, whereas if you’re looking after birds, you use birdseed. It's just basic logic, really.

The guys this little guy is mobilizing haven't even seen the sights in Moscow, let alone ventured near the Baltic Sea. This is just one more heavy-handed move that’s going to help bring this war to a swift conclusion. 🙏

William Cooper11 said:Right at the end of the article, they explain why this behavior from Turkey is being tolerated. Apparently, Turkey acts as a dam against migrants trying to reach Europe. You can basically boil the message from Europe to Turkey down to: "Just don't let those Iraqis, Syrians, Iranians, Pakistanis, or Afghans into the EU, and we'll look the other way regarding your business deals with Russia."

Alright, so if we have yet another dictator holding more cards than Brussels, then tell me—what is actually the point of pulling EU companies out of the Russian market if they're just going to be replaced by some Turkish equivalent?

Honestly, these sanctions fascinate me more and more every single day with all their little nuances. I swear, if this wasn't pushed through by the "Greens" to force a rapid transition to renewable energy sources, crazy Putin would have just been the perfect excuse to pull it off even faster. 🙏

Moody's changed the outlook on the US government's credit rating from stable to negative this month. They cited the risk of prolonged gas supply disruptions from Russia, which could trigger widespread rationing and a deep recession.

The folks over in DC are absolutely livid.

William Cooper11 said:Did you even finish reading the article?

Honestly, no. I mean, does anyone actually sit there and read the full thing anymore in 2022? Not really. It’s just the Mainstream Media playing the game—you skim the headlines, glance at the first paragraph, and move on. Personally, I find myself clicking most often when I see that one specific keyword: "furious."

Brussels is absolutely FURIOUS.