Posts by swiftjackal11

urbanotter said:And if you ask me, the biggest factor in that entire decline was the influx of barbarians—those wild tribes coming in from the East.😁

I grabbed this from a Mexican site.
Because of sanctions from certain Western nations, that Russian car manufacturer can't get their hands on all the parts they used to rely on. It’s like a major Detroit automaker suddenly losing access to its entire supply chain overnight.

So, this "anti-embargo" Lada basically comes without airbags, ABS, stability control, or even seatbelt pretensioners. It's like buying a car that ignores every basic safety standard we take for granted here.

It’s been nearly four months since the invasion of Ukraine started, and honestly, a new Lada is kind of the perfect metaphor for the Russian economy right now. It’s still running, somehow, even if they’re missing half the parts.

rowdyraven112 said:Look at the Russian GDP compared to oil prices. Factor in those quasi-sanctions from 2014. If oil drops below $60 a barrel, they lose the ability to fund this war. Sure, they'd have enough to run the government and maintain basic stability under normal circumstances. But with a war and sanctions hitting them? They wouldn't make it to autumn.

So how is Russia actually paying for this? What are they doing with all that oil and gas money? It's not like they're building new planes; they're just using what's already there. They're basically burning through their stockpiles.

urbanotter said:Believe me, it would be absolutely devastating, truly terrifying.

I think I’d do just about anything to make sure that shell never fires, my home stays standing, and my trips to the gas station don't become a financial nightmare.😉

You wouldn't do a thing. Putin calls the shots here.

urbanotter said:So, if there's no problem, and we aren't dealing with lockdowns anymore, we should be able to expect food and gas prices to slide back down to where they were before everything went sideways.

For now, I'm just working through the little bit of olive oil, pasta, and rice I have left in my pantry, waiting for things to finally settle down and for prices to drop.☕

How much of a reality check would it be if a Russian shell actually missed its target and leveled your house, all while gas prices spiked even higher?

urbanotter said:I find your sudden outburst of "empathy" and your obsession with where I stood during the early '90s somewhat amusing.
For what it's worth, when things started falling apart and I saw how the world was shifting, I did everything within my power to ensure our nation achieved independence rather than remaining part of a collapsing union that clearly had no future.
That experience didn't, however, drive me toward some pathological hatred of everything related to our former neighbors. I understood then, as I do now, that we would eventually be neighbors again, and that it is in everyone's best interest to move past old grudges and foster the best possible relations.

My core issue is simply that I don't believe nearly 8 billion people should be held hostage by a few hundred thousand Ukrainian nationalists who seem convinced that the US and NATO should bark orders from the borders of Russia. It isn't worth pushing a button that could make life practically impossible for every person on this planet. The current approach to resolving the Ukrainian conflict is steadily pushing us closer to a scenario where someone, somewhere, actually decides to press that button.

At this point, it looks increasingly likely that sanctions won't yield tangible results, that Western societies are becoming more divided in their interests, and that the Ukrainian leadership might eventually have to accept losing parts of their territory—returning to the borders they held after the collapse of the USSR.

I personally detest all forms of violence, let alone war, but I try not to hold double standards. I see conflicts happening all over the globe, yet I notice that certain pro-Western circles don't mourn the fate of Palestinians or Iraqis with the same intensity they use to lionize the Maidan fighters, who essentially used a coup to overthrow an elected government.
Of course, these perspectives don't align with the prevailing narrative, so I expect to be met with a certain amount of "coldness" here.
Stay safe and hold onto your convictions; in short order, we will see how things settle in Ukraine and how the internal relationships among Ukrainians evolve.
Ultimately, I just want the killing to stop—especially the killing of innocent people who are merely being misled by the interests of a small group of citizens in that region.

You're worried about grocery store prices first, and only then the end of the war.

urbanotter said:I don't think Biden spends much time thinking about policy; he's probably too preoccupied with his own health issues.

Look, the idea that prices spike when supply drops is basic economics—even a local farmer at a roadside stand knows that if they only have a few peppers left, it's the perfect time to hike the price.

I don't need to rely on Bloomberg's spin when I can just rely on common sense and actual facts on the ground.

Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but you don't even need to be an expert to see the reality. Just walk into any local grocery store or a big chain like Walmart; if you can remember, the price of a bottle of Crisco was around $3.25/l a few months ago, and today you can't find it for less than $6.00/l.
To anyone who can handle elementary school math, it's obvious that cooking oil prices have jumped by 80%, and over in Germany, they've even hit €5 per liter.👋

You're only looking at things through the lens of your own self-interest. I'm guessing you weren't much better back in '91 either. You didn't give a damn about the neighbor defending his home from invaders; all you cared about was whether the grocery stores were empty.😁.

urbanotter said:I really did ask you if we could just move past these old myths, because I was simply relaying what the more informed experts were saying. It shouldn't be all that difficult to verify who is actually trying to "expose these lies"—you really just need to look up the language laws that have been implemented since Ukraine gained its independence.

But sure, let's just bring back sanctions so that I end up being "frozen out" just because of someone else's fabrications.🍿

p.s.
Take Switzerland, for instance; they have four completely equal official languages, and by some miracle, they haven't been at war with each other for 300 years.

Switzerland isn't the issue here; it's Russia. They ban the word "war," they kill people globally, they invade other countries, they even stole a Portuguese meat industry logo for their version of McDonald's. And now they're lying about not sending 18-year-olds to fight in Ukraine.

urbanotter said:I find myself wondering about the morality of punishing children for the crimes committed by their parents. If I were to commit a murder or order one, should my son be forced to carry the weight of those consequences? There is also a significant flip side to seizing oligarch assets, considering many people have invested massive amounts of capital within Russia. As for the flight bans, it isn't just Russian pilots losing their livelihoods; plenty of Western pilots have flown into Russia as well.
When it comes to buying more oil and essentially pleading with Saudi Arabia to increase production, we can't afford to lose sight of the bigger picture. We shouldn't forget that such a "gesture of goodwill" from Saudi Arabia often comes with the expectation that they will sell us advanced weaponry, allowing them to continue their conflict in Yemen against the Houthis, who are harassing them just as much as the Ukrainians are bothering the Russians.
The thing is, you rarely see this discussed in the news, so it's almost as if it isn't happening at all.
It really doesn't seem wise to "punish" someone when you end up suffering more consequences than the ones being penalized.

While I do believe that Putin views himself as some kind of successor to the Russian Tsars, dreaming of restoring the global influence once held by the USSR,
I am convinced there had to be a more sophisticated way to address his obsession with Russian greatness.
By implementing these specific sanctions, we’ve basically jumped headfirst into a mess, making it much harder to reach a constructive solution.
Russia isn't a Western-style democracy, and while it certainly has its share of issues, it doesn't represent 80% of the world. Should we really try to impose these types of sanctions on everyone, or are we just daydreaming that citizens from Arab nations, China, India, or Africa will suddenly become Europeans?

If I recall correctly, even Merkel mentioned that integrating immigrants into German society hasn't been successful.
I was watching a presenter on Al Jazzer yesterday; she was wearing something like a turban, and honestly, she looked stunning—a true beauty. I suspect she wasn't covering her hair because of some legal mandate, but rather as a personal choice.

It's like how Mexicans use that three-finger salute (even though the Nationalists used it back in WWII); nobody is forcing them to do it. It's the same thing with Al Jazzer. Even if they try to force Russians to stop saying "war operations" instead of "special operations."

That’s exactly why they're pushing to lift those sanctions

gentleviper62 said:A 10% dip isn't exactly a catastrophic collapse when you consider the scale of the sanctions being thrown at them. And honestly, if they manage to permanently neutralize the threat from Ukraine, that's a price worth paying. Think about it: they get to reset their entire system, reduce their economic reliance on the European Union, and they walk away with new territory populated by new people who speak Russian.

That sounds more like wishful thinking on your part. In reality, the Russians are demanding the lifting of sanctions.🤷

The owner of Zara left Russia and somehow his profits went up, how does that 🤷

urbanotter said:I’m living in Cleveland

but honestly, your suggestion about heading over to Moscow to grab a car isn't half bad, much like how it wouldn't be a terrible idea to drive across the border to grab groceries in Canada or Canada.

The TOP 10 best car manufacturers from China

When it comes to aesthetics, these machines are practically indistinguishable from their European or American counterparts. You can find cars on the market where the bodywork looks almost entirely copied from a Chevrolet Matiz, a Mercedes-Benz, or a BMW. Most of the crossovers feature those signature aggressive lines, yet they still manage to look quite elegant. As far as comfort goes, finding a vehicle won't be the slightest bit of a struggle. The interiors are thoughtfully designed down to the smallest detail, with most elements crafted from genuine leather or very high-quality synthetic leather. The cabin space is typically quite generous, ensuring all passengers feel perfectly comfortable.

https://hr.expertevolux.com/top-samy...lej-iz-kitaja/

It would be even better in Russia. With the ruble being so strong, everything is cheap. If another war breaks out, we might see a 1:1 exchange rate between the ruble and the dollar.

analogbear5 said:What’s with that comment? What am I supposed to sing with you guys—that Russia is falling apart while NATO keeps expanding?

Sure, Russians are just a people being suppressed by their own KGB types and oligarchs. They need help.

analogbear5 said:It won't totally tank their economy, but it’ll definitely sting—forcing them to pivot toward different markets where they won't have nearly as much leverage. See, China isn't some pushover like the European Union. As for this whole new Russia-China dynamic? We're mostly just guessing at this point.

I don't see the average person falling into some Soviet-style cult of consumerism—mostly because all those fancy gadgets can be found outside of Western markets.

Look at the food sector; we've seen since 2014 that Russia has been pretty successful at breaking its addiction to luxury Western goods.

I can already picture you in Russia. That's where the real luck is.☕

urbanotter said:So, where exactly do you think Russian importers go to get the currency they need if not through the Russian foreign exchange market?
What kind of currency do you think companies use when they have to buy rubles just to secure their supply of gas and oil? How exactly are they paying for it?
Maybe in your world, they’re just handing it over for free based on a friendly smile.

Just because you, as an individual citizen in Russia, can't access certain currencies in countries that have slapped sanctions on Russia, doesn't mean it's impossible to trade for other currencies on the Russian forex market.

Trade between Russia and other nations is increasingly shifting toward local currencies, and honestly, that is precisely what the USA fears most.
The demand for the dollar will continue to erode as more international trade settles using domestic currencies instead.

As a result, these sanctions are becoming less effective at hitting their intended targets; instead, Western importers of Russian gas are actually buying up rubles just to pay for the energy they need.

This entire assault on the established monetary system is going to force nations to find alternative ways to settle payments with one another.
After seeing their foreign exchange reserves frozen and seized by banks all over the world, many countries are being forced to rethink which currencies they should hold to facilitate trade, or if they should simply move toward gold.

When that happens, the global reliance on the dollar diminishes, and eventually, the rest of the world won't have to shoulder the burden of its constant printing anymore.
That hurts the USA far more than any "Glory to Ukraine" sentiment or the tragic loss of thousands of lives this war brings.

Everything the USA and the West are doing is just pushing us closer to a point where some madman, on either side, decides to push the button. At that stage, it won't matter who won or lost; the only question will be whether anyone survives to travel anywhere, or if a few lucky souls will just be waiting in bunkers, hoping life on Earth becomes possible again.

Go ahead, fly from Washington, D.C. to Moscow and try buying rubles. Then take those rubles and go buy a Detroit car in Moscow.

gentleviper62 said:They are propping it up, sure, but foreign exchange reserves seem to be holding steady for now. People were predicting a total bankruptcy, yet here we are. If they manage to convince foreign buyers to pay for energy using rubles, it could set a precedent that challenges the dollar's global dominance.

Then why isn't there any ruble cash in the exchange offices? You buy it and just save it. The ruble is getting stronger.

Pepper said:Come on, man... You’re acting like Americans just committing minor traffic violations is the big issue. Did you ignore all those times the US invaded UN member states or played the aggressor on the world stage?

The US claims to be defending democracy, yet here we are in Ukraine watching one person of faith kill another.

Amanda Flores88 said:They’re only hooked because it’s cheaper—plain and simple. But this whole "dependency" strategy is basically just cornering yourself into a dead end by paying premium prices for energy later on. Why would anyone do that?
It’s not even about swapping one addiction for another at this point—it's just that the choice we used to have, where we could actually pick the cheaper option, basically doesn't exist anymore.

I'd rather pay a premium than have Russ breaking into my house and stealing my wallet.☕

These Russians are absolute amateurs when it comes to business. If everyone is supposedly so dependent on what they're selling, why on earth were they selling it so cheap? 🤷

Melissa Rivera5 said:If those sanctions weren't actually working, they wouldn't be whining constantly and begging to have them lifted since back in 2014, let alone now. You’ve gotta be a total troll, a paid shill, or just straight-up unhinged to act like Russia's impact isn't obvious—or maybe you're just spreading that line on purpose.

They claim the ruble is "stronger," yet they're begging to scrap the sanctions. It's like saying your car is great while you're actively trying to drain the gas tank.😁