Posts by electricsurfer47

Nathan Thomas12 said:Look, Iran has enough cash for nuclear missiles, yet they still can't get them.
Russia has plenty of money for plane parts and truck components, but they're still short. Their logistics guys have been whining about it for months. But hey, according to you, they'll just "find a way" to score microchips too. I guess I can't argue with that logic.

At the end of the day, the Russians will figure something out, but Europe? Not gonna happen.🥱

When we're talking about supply chains, they'll handle airplane parts by stripping them off other planes or just swapping in something similar enough. It’s not ideal, and it definitely isn't by the book, but it gets the job done.

Aviation safety in Russia might take a bit of a hit, but they'll trade that for economic security and just being able to keep moving.
It's kind of like how Cuba or India handle medicine, if I remember right. While the EU goes down the path of stricter controls and constant quality checks on drugs, places like India and Cuba tend to take shortcuts just to keep costs low and production high.

goran2hr said:Is this better? I just watched this clip and honestly... man. It’s heavy. There’s something about seeing those images that just hits you right in the gut, you know? You can watch all the news reports you want, but when you see actual footage like this, it feels different. It's much more real. It makes you think about how quickly everything changes. One minute life is normal, and the next, things are completely unrecognizable. I don't even know what to say, really. Just sitting here processing it. It's a lot.

Are you actually kidding me? You’re acting like a total child, trying to make excuses for Russian Nazism and the Putler Jugend? Seriously.
So, if you're really that obsessed with living under a dictatorship where nobody can say a word without looking over their shoulder, why don't you just pack your bags and move to Russia? Honestly, go ahead and enjoy all those "benefits" of having zero freedom of speech.

swiftjackal11 said:But you can't buy any potatoes.

I mean, sure, you might find something that looks like chips, but you definitely aren't getting any paper products because Russia has something much better—sandpaper.

Terry Green3 said:https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...pe-2022-07-18/

The US Department of the Treasury reports that the federal budget pulled in $114.29 billion from oil and gas sales during the first half of the year. That’s a far cry from the 9.5 trillion rubles originally projected for the full 2022 fiscal year.

How much of a gamble are they willing to take? It seems they're actually pulling in more from Gas than initially anticipated. Honestly, alongside oil revenue, that's pretty much the only thing keeping their finances afloat despite all the sanctions from the West.

On the flip side, they can hit the EU economies directly just by turning off the tap. Of course, that's a double-edged sword—they'd be shooting themselves in the foot just as much as Europe.
They already did that when the war in Ukraine kicked off.
I wouldn't be surprised at all by a reckless move like this.

Are we talking about Russians in general here, or specifically Putin?

Look, Putin dictates how things run in Russia, but he also has the most to lose if Russia loses this war. And he’s got even more to lose if he just stops the war he started in the first place. So yeah, Putin is definitely the one gambling, because he’s looking for an exit strategy through some kind of "victory" just so he can stay in power.

I've been reading that things are cooling off between Russia and Turkmenistan. Apparently, Turkmenistan has started blocking Russian propaganda media.

On another note, Turkmenistan could actually ramp up gas production alongside Azerbaijan and help supply Europe.
Right now, though, it’s still anyone's guess whether there's even a pipeline running from Turkmenistan all the way to Europe.

Anthony Hill5 said:Given that Ukrainians have supposedly been committing genocide against the Russian population in the Donbas for the last eight years, one can only assume that civilian casualties are simply an impossibility.

Those few hundred survivors that Putin is fighting for were actually evacuated to Russia before the war even began, though I suppose such inconvenient facts are easily forgotten.

if you're going to bring up genocide in the Donbas over the last 8 years.

A Russian actor actually exposed the propaganda.
https://m.facebook.com/groups/108945...0893411066798/

Harold Doyle3 said:Look, I’m a political amateur here, so bear with me while I throw out a few questions...
From a purely strategic standpoint: shouldn't the Russians be playing nice with the West instead of picking a fight? If climate change keeps accelerating—which, let's face it, is becoming our reality—they're going to end up with hundreds of millions of Chinese, Indian, and Arab people pressing against their southern borders looking for living space. Obviously, you can't just sit there and watch people perish from the heat, but there needs to be some kind of management. You can't have a total stampede. Russia couldn't handle that alone... but with some Western cooperation, it might actually be organized. Nukes won't solve a migration crisis. The US has Alaska and Canada to retreat to, then there's Europe Scandinavia, Greenland... even Antarctica...

Secondly:

The Russian aggression in Ukraine is essentially creating an "Israel x 15"!
The Ukrainians have access to NATO weaponry and direct experience fighting the Russians. They are going to become the finest soldiers on the planet. Plus, they are brilliant engineers and technicians; they'll figure out how to merge the best tech from both sides to build world-class hardware...
In my opinion, Russia is making some massive strategic blunders...

Even Putin can see now that this was a mistake. But you have to ask yourself—what does Putin actually lose if he calls off the war??? He loses his political standing, himself, and everyone else tied to this whole mess.

In Russia, people are eventually going to realize how many Russians actually died
how much military gear was totally wiped out

And finally, how much damage the sanctions actually caused. I mean the real damage, not the fake version the White House kept spinning through the media.

----
If he walks away from the position he holds right now, he’ll most likely end up in prison, along with everyone else involved.

Russia has moved their own version of Awax into Belarus. It makes you wonder, though... what's the actual endgame here? https://www.facebook.com/1378095215/...5wTfd8MDxEYql/

Melissa Rivera5 said:That was just Linak being sarcastic when the Russians first started floating those trial balloons about peace talks. Now, I guess they're moving on to actual bullshit negotiations where they demand unconditional surrender and annexation to mother Russia, along with mass extermination of the population and, oh yeah, wiping out Ukrainian statehood, the language, the people, and the whole culture.

It's funny how they claimed from the start that this was just a NATO proxy war, but now suddenly everyone's saying NATO is right there helping kill Ukrainians by giving them enough gear to surrender so the Russians can just pillage them indefinitely.

Honestly, the mindset in Russia is wild. Claiming that Ukrainians don't even exist and are just Russians, while simultaneously attacking the country... I mean, that's basically just a civil war at that point. 😁

Thanks, I totally missed that. Maybe I was reading too fast. 🙂

Kate Cook27 said:Sanctions are definitely hitting Russia where it hurts, and there’s already talk about a peace deal—but it feels like the West isn't interested in letting Ukrainians find peace just yet. From where I'm sitting, it looks more like the West wants to keep this fight going until there's nothing left to fight with. It's funny how things shift overnight; suddenly the term "war in Ukraine" is being used by people like Lavrov instead of the old "special military operation" label.

Please, man, stop talking nonsense.

You're just spreading Russian propaganda.

Look, Ukraine is determined to get their land back. If Ukraine *wanted* to give up territory to sign a truce, they could.

But Putin started this war, so he's the one who has to stop it. He needs to pull all his troops out of the sovereign country Ukraine.

The war can end, but that responsibility lies with Putin, not the West. It's on him. Putin is fighting until the very last Russian soldier and whatever foreign troops they manage to mobilize.

Ukraine has zero intention of handing over their land. Besides, nobody can guarantee that the Russians won't just try this again later. The Budapest memorandum was supposed to guarantee Ukraine's independence and freedom—it was a promise from the Russians that they wouldn't mess with Ukraine's territorial integrity or try to fold it into the Russian Federation.

Donna Wells2 said:I was reading an article about how Germans are buying wood-burning stoves in massive quantities, with waiting lists for a new stove stretching up to a year.
People aren't going to freeze to death; they'll make it through this winter by using coal, thermal power plants, and whatever else is available.
There's this constant mantra being pushed that Russians can survive anything because that's how they're built... but what, are the rest of the nations in Europe just supposed to surrender and die because of it?
And since Russia has been cast out of the Western circle... I truly hope those who support them find themselves right where they belong.

Can you actually link me to that source?

Is Putin just getting rid of anyone who disagrees with him?

goldenowl73 said:Russia just blocked the main pipeline used by Kazakhstan to get oil over to Europe. They're claiming "technical difficulties," which honestly sounds like the same old excuse we always hear whenever they want to push back against Tokayev's recent statements. It feels like those pumping stations might be feeling a little salty about what was said recently.

Russia blocks Kazakhstan's oil transit to Europe.

So, according to the Associated Press, a Russian court has closed the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal for 30 Days under alleged technical issues. This specific terminal is basically Kazakhstan's Main EXIT Point for Kazakh oil.

How much of a headache would it actually be to set up a detour route?

Matthew Young35 said:What nukes? As far as I know, Ukraine has five nuclear power plants—I might be wrong there.

I was talking about a realistic scenario: there was zero chance the Soviet Union or Russia would leave even a single usable atomic bomb in Ukraine, and at that moment, it served NATO's interests too.
Keep your nuclear fantasies for the folks over at the Krsko plant.

The USSR had bases in Ukraine where they kept those bombs. Everything was falling apart so fast back then, and at that moment, the Russians weren't exactly thinking long-term about what to do with the arsenal and stuff.

The Ukrainians really should have held onto those weapons so they could modernize them later. They would've been like Israel sitting next to Russia; nobody would be able to dictate political terms to them. That’s exactly what Russia does to Ukraine all the time, even with that Budapest Memorandum they signed.

placidtiger142 said:Just got back from a homeowners association meeting over here in Germany. Some guy was saying natural gas prices jumped from maybe 1.8 cents or 1.08 cents up to almost 10 cents per kWh or whatever the hell they measure it by
.
Man, we are getting absolutely screwed this winter. It’s not even just about heating; we might not even have hot water because they’ll be cutting it off—maybe leaving us with two hours a day or some nonsense. And the extra bills? They're gonna be astronomical.

This doesn't look good at all. We don't even realize what's coming for us.

The idea that there will actually be enough gas and everything else is a total pipe dream. Honestly, props to anyone heating their place with wood. Everyone else is just asking for a massive beating.

Over in Swabia, they’re already starting to drop hints, but of course, they won't tell us the real truth or show the actual projections right now. They don't want to trigger a panic or total chaos, so they're just going to drip-feed the bad news bit by bit.

I'm certain as hell that fuel prices are going to hit at least $10 by the end of the year, if there's even any left to buy.

I wish I could be an optimist, but honestly, being optimistic right now is probably the worst thing you can do.

We need to seriously gear up for the worst. That way, if things don't work out, we aren't totally crushed, and if they do, at least we can survive the winter a little easier.

Being convinced that everything will be fine and that nothing will run out is incredibly dangerous in times like these...

That's why the government really needs to offer incentives for households that want to switch to alternatives instead of relying on gas.

And wood too, even if it's not exactly the most eco-friendly solution.
They should scrap the tax on firewood for this year. That would actually encourage people to go out and buy some.
Also, Germany should probably restart those nuclear plants they shut down recently. Electricity could be a solid alternative if it's being generated from different sources.

dustyowl29 said:So, this "brand new" Lada actually runs on a modified engine straight out of an old 1980s Chevy Nova...

Honestly, it might even be the exact same engine. You can't just swap things out on a whim; you need serious technical expertise for that. I highly doubt they swapped the whole motor since it's only been four months since the end of those two months.

The real question is, what else in that Lada hasn't been modernized?
What about the brakes??
And ABS?
Or ESP?

Noah Diaz said:Everyone knows exactly who started this fight and who is just trying to survive.

The real issue is that most people don't think for themselves; they let someone else do their mental heavy lifting.

At this rate, paying through the nose for energy costs is just another way of shooting ourselves in the foot.

Just think about it. Once Europe adapts, while Mexico stays stuck relying solely on Russian gas and oil. In Ukraine, those pipelines carrying the gas will be destroyed, and they'll stop importing Russian gas and oil entirely.
Mexico will be the one that shot itself in the foot, because from the very start, they backed the aggressor.

Noah Sullivan said:Even Professor John Mearsheimer warned them against giving up those nukes:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer
... Almost alone among observers, Mearsheimer was opposed to that decision because he saw that Ukraine without a nuclear deterrent would likely be subjected to aggression by Russia. [72] As early as 1993, he suggested that Ukraine should retain its nuclear weapons as a deterrent.[73] ...

can I get some more info here?

Was he even a well-known figure to them back then???
And how did the American public react at the time??

Jonathan Martinez11 said:Russia thought they could just steamroll through Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, while the West assumed sanctions would crush Russia just as quickly. I guess both sides were wrong. Nothing happens overnight. It’s a massive lie to suggest that sanctions only hurt us and don't impact Russia at all. Right now, the Russians are basically running on old stockpiles—raw materials, spare parts, and whatnot. The real trouble starts once those reserves run dry. The Russian economy looks stable for the moment because they have cash on hand and certain supplies, but I suppose problems will likely hit this fall or winter when those stocks are gone. Once citizens burn through their emergency savings, things change. Actually, Russia is way more dependent on the countries imposing sanctions than it is the other way around. Once the European Union finds a workaround for raw materials, they won't need Russia anymore. Meanwhile, Russia needs so many things from the nations that sanctioned them. According to recent Russian polling, 60 percent of citizens feel their financial situation
has worsened, and about 65 percent think it’s only going to get worse. The Russians aren't crashing as fast as some people predicted, but they are sliding downward, slowly but surely. Independent Russian economists seem to think that if this war drags on and sanctions stay put—especially if the European Union drastically cuts back on Russian energy—the Russian economy could end up right back where it was after the collapse of the USSR in 1990. There is one big difference this time, though; Russia actually has a middle class now, and they know they deserve better. For now, everything in Moscow seems mostly fine, but the first cracks are showing in smaller towns and rural areas, and even in Saint Petersburg. Bigger issues are expected when people in Moscow start running out of things too. Maybe we'll see an uptick in car thefts again since there won't be any new ones available, and parts will be a nightmare. You'll see it with aviation, shipbuilding, and so on. So, I guess we are looking at a very turbulent and difficult fall and winter. I doubt Russians will starve, and certainly not Americans, but it won't be easy for a lot of people, I suppose.

Also,

Russia knows they're sinking; only Putin knows just how deep it goes. I honestly think he's planning to cut off gas and oil right before winter hits. He's probably calculated that that's the best way to squeeze Europe the hardest.

But Europe isn't doing nearly enough to prepare for that.

I don't hear anything being said publicly about how we're actually replacing the gas supply. Why aren't they giving people tax breaks or subsidies to buy wood stoves and firewood?? I know, I know, it's not the "green" solution. But wood has always been, and will continue to be, cheaper than gas.

Plus, it would take the pressure off the gas demand, which could then be used to produce synthetic fertilizer that we're going to desperately need next year. If anyone is actually planning to react, they need to do it right now.

Bryan Booth82 said:Let’s be real: sanctions work. No serious person could argue that being hit by them is some kind of win for the target.
The real debate, if you want to get into the weeds, is how much collateral damage they inflict on the ones imposing them.
As a general rule, you have a coalition of groups or nations aiming these measures at a single individual or entity, and usually, the ones with the most leverage are the ones pulling the strings.
Consequently, if these sanctions end up hurting the countries that implemented them, that burden gets spread out among the many. But the target? They can hardly "spread out" the damage they're taking. They bear the brunt of it alone.

Honestly, I’m convinced that sanctions are merely the opening move... in fact, I’d go as far as to say the second step should have already been taken by now.
Best,

to say sanctions don't work... well, Russia wouldn't keep bringing it up if they didn't. They mention it constantly. That's a sign they're working.