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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

Anyone keeping a close eye on China right now—which, honestly, is the only smart way to play it—should probably keep one thing in mind: up until very recently (I haven't checked the latest data in a week or two, I suppose), they were dealing with those rolling power outages.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

dk1 said:What a load of nonsense, absolute nonsense...

I’ve never even heard of Belarus, Kirovets?

John Deere is probably superior, I suppose, but these are local, cheaper, and they don't have all those microchips built in.

Good grief, could you at least take a second to actually think about what you're saying? If those tractors were actually any good, people would still be using them today. If their yields are lower because of the tech, then that's just how you end up with hunger. It's honestly tragic...

Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

Melissa Ward said:Actually, I think it's more like this: they're fighting because they made the choice to align with the European Union instead of staying under that old "Soviet Union" shadow. Only time will tell if that was actually worth the price tag.

When you look at the standard of living for those who opted for the European Union versus those who chose to act as a puppet for Russia, it seems pretty obvious that fighting for one's own interests is the only way to make it worthwhile.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

briskdrifter3 said:🤣🤣🤣

Good grief...
First we endured two years of COVID hysteria, and now it looks like we're heading into two years of Russophobic hysteria.

The world has truly gone to hell...

Exactly. I suppose everyone should just politely ignore things that actually kill people. Forget everything else if our main concern is someone attacking an internationally recognized nation of 40 million people... we should probably just act like it's happening in... I don't know... some tiny suburb in rural Ohio.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

It isn't just the local Russophiles who seem to be completely deluded about how sanctions actually work. You even have people in the space industry acting this way:
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukra...-to-us-2801410

"In a situation like this we can't supply the United States with our world's best rocket engines. Let them fly on something else, their broomsticks, I don't know what," Rogozin said on state Russian television.

Honestly, it’s almost pathetic how ridiculous this sounds.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

Andrew Miller102 said:To put it bluntly, neither side can sustain this in the long run.

So, where is the solution, assuming for a moment you were sitting in the CEO's chair at a major firm like Canadian Krka?🤔

Exactly. I suppose the real question is just who’s going to succumb to the chemotherapy first. It’s much like warfare—it all comes down to who can stomach the casualties on the front lines. Losing soldiers is unsustainable; nobody can truly afford that kind of attrition. But they keep going, I guess, because they believe—or perhaps they just know—that their losses will be fewer than those of the opposition.

The solution, if there is one, is to tighten our belts and leverage our economic clout. Sure, some corporations might fold and others will have to undergo painful restructuring, but what emerges from this mess will be a far more independent and self-sufficient Europe. After everything that's happened, I don't think anyone will ever again dare to be 100% reliant on someone else.

The immediate future might be pretty brutal, but looking at the long term, maybe this is exactly the wake-up call we needed. A hard, necessary kick in the teeth. It's forcing us to finally start looking out for ourselves and focusing on our own backyard instead of constantly meddling in affairs halfway across the world.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

Carl Lee27 said:You know, when you really step back and look at the numbers, the Russian automotive market used to be massive—we’re talking about a scale comparable to France, just based on total vehicle sales alone. But man, after everything that's gone down recently, that whole market is basically in a freefall right now. It's wild to think about how quickly things shifted. Even a giant like the Volkswagen Group, which moves around 9 million vehicles a year, only accounts for maybe 2%, if you're being generous, perhaps 2.5% of those total sales. It just goes to show how much even the heavy hitters get shaken up when the landscape changes overnight.

When you look at Russia—all that massive physical territory, a president who seems to be constantly flexing his muscles, and those endless ranks of troops—you get this overwhelming impression that they’re some kind of global powerhouse. It’s a carefully crafted illusion of strength, I suppose. But if you actually sit down and look at the numbers? They’re struggling. In fact, economically speaking, they’ve fallen behind Italy. Honestly, people... Italy has a larger GDP than Russia. I T A L Y!

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

Andrew Miller102 says:
Who exactly are you planning to sell to?😁 Are we supposed to just dump all the excess Volkswagen or Skoda inventory originally destined for a massive Russian market of 150 million people? Besides, there's already a surplus of new cars elsewhere anyway...

Where, though?
Everywhere I look, and honestly, everyone I talk to, the consensus seems to be that wait times for anything remotely decent are getting absolutely ridiculous.
I suppose sanctions are a bit like chemotherapy. You end up hurting yourself just as much as you hurt them, though the damage to them is arguably more severe. It’s essentially a form of warfare. And in war, people die on both sides; it's just that the winning army loses less than what they can eventually replenish—technically, humanly, and financially—compared to the losing side. That's just how it works.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

Arthur Watson4 said:A Russian analyst on a financial news program pulled a bottle from under his desk and toasted the stock market—"Dear market, you were interesting. Rest in peace, my old friend," he said. Hilarious.

https://twitter.com/rafsanchez?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetemb ed%7Ctwterm%5E1499366709102366724%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwco n%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.index.hr%2Fmagaz in%2Fclanak%2Fruski-ekonomist-u-emisiji-uzivo-otvorio-bocu-i-nazdravio-ruska-burzo-pocivaj-u-miru%2F2344304.aspx

He even mentioned he’s going back to his previous job—playing Santa Claus.

Here is the actual link: https://twitter.com/rafsanchez/statu...66709102366724

🤣

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

bluemason3 said:Sanctions have never actually managed to seal anyone off completely. Sure, Russia can trade gas, lean on cryptocurrency, or run some minor workarounds with countries that haven't joined the fray—but none of that wipes out the impact. On a scale of one to ten, those tactics might nudge the damage down from a ten to a seven or an eight, but they won't bring it back to a one.

Both Iran and North Korea use all sorts of clever mechanisms to dodge sanctions, yet they’re still feeling the sting just as hard.

That’s exactly why South Korea and Iran exist at a level comparable to the "Western world." People are actually migrating from other nations into those promised lands!
Sanctions don't even need to fully isolate a country by cutting off all movement in and out. It’s enough just to throttle the valves. I mean, if someone truly wanted to live in Iran or South Korea, they’re more than welcome to raise their hand.

Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

Melissa Ward said:It’s possible that eventually, the Ukrainians will realize that dying for the sake of the EU isn't really worth the cost—especially since now that they actually have more weapons, the casualties are getting even higher.

I don't think it's even about the European Union. They aren't dying "for" the EU. They’re dying because some power-hungry madman launched a brutal invasion against them.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

Matthew Rodriguez9 said:There’s zero efficiency here as long as that gas keeps flowing without any interruptions...

Russia can pretty much shrug off all those other hits; honestly, none of these sanctions are going to touch them.

Have you actually looked at the numbers lately? I mean, what kind of "weathering the storm" are we even talking about here? Just look at how much they've already lost. Whether it's gas or no gas, they are bleeding out.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 3, 2022

https://www.google.com/search?client...d&q=usd+to+rub

If you take a look at this chart, it’s pretty clear how the Russian central bank is fighting a losing battle every single day, slowly bleeding out territory piece by piece.
Monday, 83
Tuesday, 90
Wednesday, 98
Thursday (sitting at 106 for now)

I suppose if anyone still doubts their effectiveness, they really don't need to look any further than this.

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 2, 2022

wiredseal7 said:Go ahead—give me your take on it.
Sure, things are getting tight—but looking at how everyone else dodged US sanctions (like when Venezuela pulls petrochemical supplies from Iran), the Russians will eventually find their own side streets to navigate.

Sure, sounds about right—some Frenchman who promised an economic war claims they’re melting like snow, but he didn't actually bring any numbers to the table.
They’re keeping those long-term frozen assets—it looks like the West is just planning to treat them as war booty.

Alright, take a second to actually think about what you just wrote.
How much material does Venezuela actually need, such that they can realistically source it from Iran, and how much does Russia actually require? Does Iran strike you as some kind of global manufacturing powerhouse to you?

Russia needs China, not some outfit like Iran.

wiredseal7 said:Go ahead—give me your take on it.
Sure, things are getting tight—but looking at how everyone else dodged US sanctions (like when Venezuela pulls petrochemical supplies from Iran), the Russians will eventually find their own side streets to navigate.

Sure, sounds about right—some Frenchman who promised an economic war claims they’re melting like snow, but he didn't actually bring any numbers to the table.
They’re keeping those long-term frozen assets—it looks like the West is just planning to treat them as war booty.

We have an indicator right here: https://www.google.com/search?client...d&q=usd+to+rub

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 2, 2022

wiredseal7 said:Some might say the (Western) world just got rid of an economic competitor the size of Italy or Spain. 😬
A powerhouse that trades massive amounts of raw materials—oil, gas, grain, metals, rare earth elements, fertilizer, etc. The total ripple effect ends up being even bigger than the direct damage to the Russian economy.

That's why they haven't included everything—they kept the essentials out.
It's a lose-lose scenario for everyone except China, unless the economic pressure actually manages to shake or unseat Putin. On his end, he's got the battle in Mariupol to boost morale for the troops and the people during these tough times, and linking up with Transnistria could serve as decent PR—assuming they remember to throw a party when they finally unite.

Hard to find a better reason for why these sanctions are bad and who they'll actually hit.
Though, they probably won't affect Iranians much either. They'll likely be the ones lending a hand to the Russians, given their experience with reverse-engineering aviation.

With a few civil aircraft development projects already underway in China and Russia (like the joint C929), this is going to be a massive tailwind for them.
I'm not sure how much they rely on Europe, but the Americans have been sanctioning them since the Trump era because they see them as competition.

I mean, if someone were actually paying me to reach an incredibly flawed conclusion, I doubt I'd stumble onto this one quite so easily...

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 2, 2022

USD : RUB = 1:116

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 1, 2022

wiredseal7 said:Yeah, the yuan—renminbi.

They haven't wanted to until recently, when they started tentatively opening up.
If this situation with Russia isn't a massive wake-up call, they'd have to be crazy. Building a sovereign, independent global financial system based on their own currency is an absolute top priority for them.

That might be their priority, I suppose, but it feels impossible because America and Europe simply won't allow it—and frankly, those countries depend on China to survive. You can have all the factories and workers you want, but it doesn't mean much if nobody is buying your products. Look at the situation with Russia and their oil. They have plenty of it, yet they struggle to find anyone willing to take it. They’re practically offering free shipping at this point. 🤣 In the modern era, it isn't military hardware that determines who sits at the top; it’s GDP.

Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine · Mar 1, 2022

I find myself constantly wondering why ANYONE finds it acceptable for the "West" and the "East" to sit around negotiating what happens to a country like Ukraine—which alliances they join, which nations they partner with, and how their foreign policy is shaped.

Watching this top-down perspective, where these "middle" countries are treated as if they don't actually matter, as if their own desire to participate in certain groups isn't even relevant... honestly, it’s exhausting to witness.

We hear terms like "Russian sphere of influence" or "American sphere of influence." To be blunt, I can't stand either side. If you want a specific country to be on your side, then help them. Offer a hand. Build genuine, good neighborly relations. Don't try to micromanage them and their people. It turns my stomach, both the powers involved and those who think labeling something an "interest zone" justifies these actions—just as "developing nuclear weapons" didn't justify the USA being in Iraq.

Frankly, who gives a damn if it's considered part of a "Russian sphere of influence"? If the people there want to join NATO, let them join NATO. If they want to align with Russia, let them align with Russia. If they want to buddy up with the Eskimos, let them. It shouldn't be anyone's business—not the USA, not Russia, not Europe, not China, or anyone else for that matter.

Think about it this way: how would YOU feel if your next-door neighbor told you, "I'm going to kill you if you so much as say hello to the guy across the hall."

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 1, 2022

Maybe this will be a bit of an eye-opener for some people:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_GDP_(nominal)
Russia isn't even the 3rd, 4th, or 5th largest economy by GDP. It’s actually sitting at 11th. Even Italy—which is just a neighbor in our part of the world—has a larger GDP than all of Russia combined. ITALY!

"Russia might endure, but the European Union won't." 🤣

Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine · Mar 1, 2022

I honestly don't think people grasp the massive disparity in economic power between the EU and Russia. Sure, Russia is huge, they have the weaponry, and they've got the raw materials—but that’s pretty much where the comparison ends. Beyond that, everything else leans heavily toward the EU. When you look at population numbers, sheer economic muscle, self-sufficiency, and those global supply chain connections that allow them to source whatever isn't available locally... it's not even close.
And I'm not even factoring the USA into this equation yet.