Posts by silverotter72

Comparing EUR-USD (green vs red) and USD-RUB (orange)



Russia is having a hard time, but I suppose Europe will collapse before they do 😵

They have all those little fairy tale notions and whatnot over there. It’s not like it’s actually going to hurt them, I suppose, but still, we might as well make our own little contribution to the noise.

Gerald Chavez7 said:Has the exchange rate actually hit 120 rubles to the dollar? That's basically a doubling since the start of the year—kind of like if $5.00 was suddenly equal to 1 euro in the States

ATH 126
Looking at that chart... it honestly feels like watching Bitcoin. Good grief. Bitcoin is in a full-blown parabolic move, and right now, that’s exactly how the USD-RUB pair looks.

Andrew Miller102 said:They do occasionally dip down, though, depending on the situation, especially since they’ve been heavily jamming Iraqi defenses and radar systems. Once you drop low enough, you’re basically inviting a MANPAD to the party, and then whatever happens, happens.

You don't see footage like this every day—a Su-25 in Ukraine getting taken out by a MANPAD. It keeps moving as if nothing happened, at least based on the video we have to go by. Still, it isn't much of a surprise given its reputation as a flying tank. The American equivalent to that flying tank is the very well-known and widely used A-10 Thunderbolt.🍿

Man... I've seen photos of an A-10 after it makes it back to base... looks like Swiss cheese, yet somehow it still manages to land.
Even though the Brrrrrr is a terrifying weapon, I think I'd still rather face that than something much higher up—something silent, invisible, raining guided missiles down on you from thousands of meters above.

Things just seem to be sliding further and further downhill.

Sean Watson3 said:Brace yourselves for a rough patch and a recession in Europe.

It’s going to come at a massive cost, of course. But what choice do we really have? Isn't it about time we finally started thinking long-term?

Exactly. Will this hit the European Union too? Yes. Without a shadow of a doubt. Will it hit them as hard as it hits Russia? Not even close. Will they bounce back much sooner than Russia? Almost certainly. And will all of this actually be better for the European Union in the long run, because from here on out, the focus shifts toward producing energy, resources, and goods locally? Yeah, I think so. In the long term, it should reduce their dependence on the rest of the world. It won't drop to zero—that's definitely not happening—but it shouldn't reach the point where a single small entity like Russia (if you look at their GDP compared to the entire European Union) can just pull the strings and blackmail them.

Plus, down the road, when the European Union decides to apply some economic pressure, people will realize they actually mean business.

casualtiger2 said:I get that, but what actually happens if they just... don't open it?

Well, you're looking at a total freeze on funding for publicly traded companies. Less capital flowing into those firms means less R&D, stunted growth, and a general dip in economic momentum—basically, everything slows down.
In isolation, I suppose it isn't some apocalyptic, end-of-the-world scenario, but it certainly drags down economic activity, which, when you factor in everything else going on, will likely compound the overall instability.

It wasn't just that Americans don't fly at medium or low altitudes like the Russians do. I mean, given how the Russians operate, you could probably hit something with a damn Kalashnikov if you tried hard enough...

It seems they’ve lost that initial momentum they had during those first couple of days; they just can't seem to manage a decent downward pull anymore:

Michael Ortiz68 said:And there goes Putko, making himself heard. It seems sanctions have become the main talking point for the public now.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the nations opposing the Russian military operations in Ukraine "not to make things worse by imposing additional restrictions on his country".

No, actually, everything is just fine—"Russia will endure, but the European Union won't." 🤣
It’s honestly quite sad that there are actual human beings out there who genuinely believe that.

I didn't even realize this was posted here:

Sanctions definitely hit home. Whether or not the Russians actually decide to revolt is a different conversation entirely, I suppose. But from an economic standpoint, we're looking at throwing Russia back fifty or even a hundred years into the past. That kind of regression... it'll eventually blunt the teeth of their military, too. Maybe.

briskdrifter3 said:Give it two or three months—once you're staring down those gas station receipts and seeing what they actually cost—and I suspect you'll find yourself singing a much different tune.

Look, your predictions have been... let's say, questionable at best, for several years now. I've seen you popping up in other threads, too. And interestingly enough, even there, your take was the exact opposite of mine. It’s also interesting how history has consistently proven you wrong.
A serial misser, if you ask me. I suppose you just play the numbers game... eventually, you'll stumble onto something right by sheer volume.

briskdrifter3 said:It lines up perfectly with the projected end of the conflict.
If the Russians come out on top, their markets will skyrocket.
Meanwhile, Europe slides into a brutal recession because those sanctions have essentially severed all economic arteries connecting them to the East...

On the flip side, if the Russians lose, their entire market—and frankly, the whole nation—will likely collapse.
And once again, Europe finds itself plunged into a deep recession.

If you haven't realized it yet, this is a total lose-lose scenario for the EU. No matter which way the wind blows...
The Anglo-Saxons have pulled the rug out from under us yet again.

Sure, sure... the European markets will sink while the American ones flourish, right? Because clearly, the US and Russia don't rely on each other's resources at all. It's just the European Union left out in the cold...
🤣

Nobody is exactly throwing a party here, and I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe this downturn only hurts Russia. But if you look at the long game, as much as this situation might squeeze the average citizen's wallet across the EU, it could actually end up being a net positive for the Union. It’s forcing a push toward energy and raw material independence—something that hasn't really happened until now, mostly because there was never any real incentive to move away from the cheap supplies we were getting from umetniimezemljekojomvladanekiluđak.

The more self-sufficient Europe becomes, the stronger it stands.

Gerald Chavez7 said:There's likely also massive selling pressure coming from former USSR countries that aren't under sanctions but still hold a chunk of capital in rubles... places like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, or Armenia...

This really highlights how the global market functions, and those countries are almost certainly playing a part in this. They're watching their capital evaporate and are probably shifting a certain percentage into foreign currencies just to stay afloat. I suppose the real question is just how much they can get away with before Putin decides to come knocking at their door.

The defense of the Russian ruble is looking weaker by the day



For those who might be a bit lost on what they’re actually looking at, you have to look at the exchange rate of the Dollar against the ruble. Essentially, the higher that price climbs, the more expensive everything from the rest of the world becomes for Russians—proportional to how much the Dollar has "strengthened" against their currency, or rather, how much the Ruble has bled out against everyone else.

Up until now, they’ve managed to pull some stunts with market interventions to hold the line at 96, but as time goes on, it feels like that boundary is getting harder and harder to defend. Their central bank is burning through foreign currency reserves at an alarming rate just to try and fight every downward slide, but I guess it's becoming clear they just can't sustain those levels anymore.

It seems to me that in the same way Ukrainians are steadily losing territory, the Russians are steadily losing their currency. One side is losing ground inch by inch, while the other is hemorrhaging value across their entire nation and within all those satellite states they happen to control.

Morgan Morales4 said:I feel like this belongs in some specific niche column or something. I honestly can’t wrap my head around how they’re connecting cats to these killer sanctions.

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I suppose you could file this under: "Doing the bare minimum we can manage." It doesn't have any immediate, tangible impact, but it serves as a way to signal where we stand and what we’re against. It's a bit like holding a protest in DC against Russia. Is there a direct effect? Probably zero. But an indirect one? Maybe it signals to our government that there is public support for, say, sending more supplies to Ukrainians, which helps the defenders on the ground in a very real way.

Every little thing counts, even if it seems trivial. Every drop fills the bucket, I guess...

briskdrifter3 said:The tactics you're applying to a one-on-one interaction—the classic bully versus victim dynamic—simply cannot be scaled to interstate relations.
That is your fundamental error when analyzing anything regarding this conflict...

Actually, that's exactly what we're doing right now, and if you look at the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Ruble, it seems to be working for us so far.

109.5 Rubles to one US Dollar. Do you honestly think it's going to stop there?

briskdrifter3 said:I fear this black-and-white way of looking at things will eventually backfire—specifically, that the entire Western financial system might be destabilized by these hysterical, rushed sanctions triggered by this war.

As for the conflict itself, I remain neutral... my only wish is for it to end as quickly as possible, because with every passing day, the toll on ordinary people—people who simply want to work and live their lives—continues to rise.

What troubles me most is this frantic narrative suggesting the conflict will only expand and spiral out of control. It is my belief that only through reason and true calmness can any meaningful compromise be reached during negotiations to finally bring this to an end...

Well, if we're talking about Calmness, look at how Ukraine lost a peninsula and parts of two provinces a few years ago by being too patient. That kind of "calmness" just gave the bully wings, and now they're attacking relentlessly.

You can't talk "calmly" to aggressors. If you have a bully in a classroom, the only way to stop them is to punch them in the nose. But when you're worried the parents are going to make a huge scene out of it, you don't necessarily swing directly; instead, you signal indirectly that their behavior won't go unpunished. That is exactly what is happening right now, and frankly, thank God for that.
We are at war, but it isn't just about armies—it's about economies. It's our factories against theirs, and we'll see who can hold out longer.

Anthony Hill5 said:I find it necessary to suggest that those colleagues who attempt to downplay the actual damage caused by sanctions ought to consider the broader geopolitical landscape.

Is it not painfully obvious that the combination of aggressive sanctions, skyrocketing interest rates, and the plummeting value of the Ruble will inevitably erode the purchasing power of the average citizen? This is a fundamental economic reality that everyone seems to be ignoring.

All of these factors are converging toward a total collapse within the construction sector, an industry largely fueled by migrant labor from various developing nations.

Those nations rely heavily on remittances sent back from Russia, which means the economic fallout originating there will inevitably spill over their borders, triggering widespread civil unrest and the eventual downfall of Putin's puppet regimes. I can already envision the inevitable media trolling regarding "color revolutions" in the very near future.

Furthermore, we should realistically anticipate the imminent disintegration of the Eurasian Union.

It’s actually quite similar to how the USSR collapsed. Eventually, the working class rises up. And if you ask me, the culprit isn't some "evil West," but rather the simple fact that they are trying to rule through brute force. Instead of using the carrot, they rely entirely on the stick. The smart players realized long ago that if you truly want to conquer someone, the carrot is a far more effective and sustainable weapon.