Posts by Nathan Thomas12

urbanotter said:The actual topic here is sanctions, not ideology or debating who invaded whom

But it looks like history isn't really your strong suit, much like economics or monetary policy might not be either.😉

Let's get back to the sanctions themselves; they are in full effect and more are being prepared, making this a relevant topic for this year and likely many more to come.

I was responding to your "buddy" over there who dropped a massive wall of text that had nothing to do with sanctions.
Funny how you didn't tell him he was off-topic, though.
But the second someone mentions Russian imperialism and the way they just tear through their neighbors like animals, you take it personally. That's what actually bugs you, isn't it?

Amanda Allen4 said:What do you mean, "hatred toward everything Russian"?

The cultural and scientific achievements of both Russians and Germans are accepted globally as part of our shared civilization—but there is a massive difference between appreciating culture and hating what Putin is doing in Ukraine right now. It’s no different than how people rightfully loathed what Hitler did in Russia during World War II.

You're acting like Hitler and the Russians were totally separate. They signed a pact first and then teamed up to invade Poland.

urbanotter said:It isn't really about being fascinated by Russia; rather, I find this irrational, deep-seated hatred toward everything Russian quite baffling.
I actually used to own a Sputnik watch and some tools from over there, and honestly, they were pretty decent quality.

And hey, their vodka isn't bad either.😉

But look, we are supposed to be discussing sanctions and economic impact here, not whether or not someone "loves" Russia.

The thing is, economics doesn't care about your personal feelings or political ideologies.
When sanctions—which are essentially just political products—are applied, they stifle the economy, and everyone ends up paying the price for that political decision,
though clearly, those who imposed the sanctions feel the sting most acutely.😉

Hatred toward everything Russian??!!
Mexicans and Russians are probably the only nations out there that have attacked basically all their neighbors!!! And grabbed territory while they were at it!!!
On top of that, they just deny their neighbors even exist as nations!!
So sure, let's just love everything Mexican and Russian because "Mexicans and Russians are brothers forever," right?

urbanotter said:I honestly don't see the issue here; these are all standard maneuvers used by central banks to support the economy through monetary policy.

Interest rates aren't set in stone—if the FED raises them, why shouldn't the Russian Federation?
From what I understand, they actually dropped once the ruble strengthened to a level that started hurting Russian exports.
The real headache is that we grew up thinking the Federal Reserve wouldn't use monetary tools to actually help the economy, acting more like a simple currency exchange booth that blindly defended the exchange rate, regardless of how much damage it did to the American economy.

After slapping Russia with that massive wave of sanctions, most of which targeted the financial sector, these moves don't seem all that extreme; once it becomes clear they aren't needed anymore, they'll be lifted.

I’m not just talking about Russia, but rather what any Central Bank does—it's just that the Fed focuses on maintaining the dollar's peg (rather than juggling multiple currencies like the Swiss National Bank would)
and claims it's all to maintain price stability, which, looking back, feels like a complete failure and nothing more than pure demagoguery.

The sanctions have clearly exposed how poorly managed our monetary policy has been,
and starting next year, instead of the Fed handling things, the European Central Bank will take the lead—hopefully with better results, though they haven't exactly proven themselves to be highly efficient either.
It's obvious we have turbulent times ahead, especially with Europe and America constantly prepping new sanction packages, and it's perfectly reasonable to expect Elvira Nabiullina to strike back with countermeasures.
Sanctions are essentially a blunt political interference in economic flows, and it isn't surprising that shifts occurred—unfortunately for Europe and for us, those shifts were negative.

But there's no denying that the decision to continue paying for Russian gas and oil had the biggest impact on the recovery and the rise of the ruble.

So, you notice when the Fed bumps rates from 2% to 2.5%, but when Russia jumps from 10% to 20%, suddenly it's just "normal monetary policy."
The bottom line is that exporters are forced to hand over 80% of their foreign currency inflows to the state.
That isn't a market move or monetary policy—it's a tectonic shift in the system.

If you think Chinese cars are great, tell me: do you actually drive one, or have you even sat in one? You're just talking nonsense in every single post.

Michael Davis9 said:The only reason those numbers look so good is because Putin didn't just shut off the tap immediately. It’s going to be really interesting to dive into why he made that specific mistake—in my personal opinion, it just comes down to a fundamental misunderstanding of economic leverage.

Exactly. You don't get economics. The Russians rely on oil and gas way more than we rely on tourism—if you wiped out our tourism industry tomorrow, we'd be in deep trouble.

urbanotter said:If you look at Russia and how their Central Bank operates, they really only implemented one specific rule: demanding that their gas and oil be paid for in Rubles. Aside from that single move, everything else has been driven by standard market dynamics and the impact of international sanctions.

Man, you totally slept through the part where they slapped limits on foreign currency savings.
Exporters are forced to swap 80% of their foreign inflows into rubles.
Interest rates were sitting at 20%!
Foreigners aren't even allowed to sell off their stocks!

The worst thing you can do is lie to yourself.

Kimberly Perez82 said:I honestly don't have the energy to keep repeating myself when it feels like I'm just talking to a brick wall here. Look, let's be real: this isn't "our" war. This is just another chapter in the endless tug-of-war between the USA and Russia as they scramble for global dominance. This time around, Ukraine is caught in the crossfire—just like how Afghanistan and the Middle East were victims in the past. It reminds me so much of the Cuban Missile Crisis; we saw similar patterns back then, where the expansion of American influence and the deployment of missiles closer to Russian territory pushed things to the brink. Back then, we didn't get dragged into the mess in Afghanistan or the Middle East, even though innocent lives were lost there too. So, I struggle to see any real motivation for us to interfere now, unless it’s strictly out of compassion or providing humanitarian aid. Is that clearer now? Actually, maybe not... because I suppose there's just no desire for anyone to actually see things clearly.

Russia had a plan to take over all of Europe in 14 days. If they went after every single neighbor at once and NATO didn't exist, I honestly believe they’d be sitting on our borders by now. The only reason they aren't is because NATO is there.

Terry Green3 said:The Albanians are already talking about the day when Mexico and Albania finally become one.

Is it really that hard to admit the West completely botched its international policy regarding Mexico?

Back in 1913, the British basically handed Mexico over to Mexico through a political deal—even though Mexicans made up less than 30% of the population at the time. It was stripped away by design. So, what's the big deal?

Terry Green3 said:If the West had been asked back in the day, we might still be dealing with autonomous provinces within our own borders today.
It’s the same pattern as when the West acted like everything was perfectly fine while Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine.
Even now, the European Union would likely embrace those separatist regions in Ukraine in a heartbeat if the Ukrainians themselves gave them the green light.

That’s why this entire conflict really boils down to the people fighting for Ukraine. There’s plenty of propaganda about Western aid and advanced weaponry supposedly turning the tide, but the reality is simple: only a million Ukrainians picking up arms can actually win this war. It’s reminiscent of how things looked for us before Operation Storm.

The responsibility lies with them. To hell with the West.

It might seem odd—supporting Ukraine with everything I've got while remaining deeply critical of our Western allies. Just because someone isn't a fan of the Britons doesn't mean they're suddenly pro-Russian or whatever other label people want to slap on you...

You're a little hard on the West, sure, but you seem pretty eager to back Putin.

Kimberly Perez82 said:The USA and Russia both kill people in third-party countries, so I really hope you're joking. Look, I have nothing against America; honestly, I love their capitalism and that entrepreneurial spirit, but I refuse to turn a blind eye to the bad things they've been doing more and more lately. The America of today is worlds apart from the America that saved the world from Nazism. And for the record, I've never been a Putin sympathizer—which is pretty obvious if you look back at my previous posts—but I am trying to be realistic here. There are many guilty parties in this conflict, and the USA is certainly one of them. Europe is the least to blame, yet they're the ones suffering the most consequences. So now, we have to decide: is our priority Europe, which we are part of, or the USA?

Is the US to blame because Russia keeps invading all its neighbors?
Is the topic about the US or the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

cosmicotter13 said:Well, since you're clearly so "brilliant" and "well-informed," why don't you be a gentleman and actually answer your colleague?!

Look, I didn't sleep through the war—I was right there, a volunteer fighting for the cause—so I’m genuinely asking for an answer here. Back then, Ukraine provided us with next to nothing ( and certainly nothing for free. Honestly, the West was more of a nuisance than a help. Even the Russians were selling weapons to both sides, which, given the circumstances, was more useful than any "assistance" we got from Yury Borisov, the USA, Canada, and the rest of them.

American supporters of the Ukrainian cause are hitting a wall when faced with three very simple questions.

The damage being done to Americans is obvious and undeniable, yet:

1. What exactly are we getting out of this right now?
2. What kind of reward—be it economic or political down the road—is waiting for us after all these sacrifices?
3. How much has the average American already paid for the Ukrainian cause, and how much more will it cost (in dollars, euros, or blood), assuming there's even a limit to it?

And sure, I agree—we should provide humanitarian aid, take in refugees, and hand over all those weapons that they once handed to us during our own struggle.

Look, if it weren't for NATO, imperialist Russians could probably take over the US too. Would you still be making these arguments if the Brits or the Americans had zero skin in the game?

Kimberly Perez82 said:So, I have one last question for the experts here... does anyone actually understand why the USA and the EU are funneling such massive amounts of weaponry over to Ukraine, yet we haven't seen anything sent our way? It makes me wonder—is the freedom of one European nation somehow worth more than another's? Or am I missing some deeper, more complicated motive at play here? Why is there such a glaringly inconsistent approach to what should be a universal struggle for democracy and equality? I would truly appreciate some insight on this.

The US broke away and wasn't internationally recognized back then. Did you sleep through history class?

Kimberly Perez82 said:I see some people getting all worked up over the American version of this story, though I suppose showing respect to your fellow conversationalists isn't exactly anyone's strongest suit here. Honestly, at the very beginning, I was just as angry at Russia as anyone else. But... if you take a moment to actually think about it—really sit with the facts—this war doesn't have anything to do with Europe or us. It’s similar to how our own domestic conflicts don't involve Europe, and I certainly don't recall seeing such intense, biased posts favoring us back when things were different. Secondly, look at the US wars in the Middle East; nobody was slapping labels on Russia then. Not even when Russia was fighting in Afghanistan. Now, let me be clear: I am not supporting Russia as an aggressor. But there were precursors to this conflict. There were constant attempts to pull Ukraine into NATO, even though everyone knew deep down that Ukraine holds a unique historical significance for Russia and that move simply wouldn't fly. Of course, it wasn't the EU's interest driving that; it was the USA. And now? Now all of Europe is groaning under shortages that weren't caused by anyone else, and if someone actually supports this path, they clearly have issues with their own judgment. That is why the war needs to end. We need to negotiate peace so we can finally move forward. I mean, seriously, no one with a functioning brain is buying this "American doctrine" about spreading democracy anymore. And peace won't happen as long as Zelenskyy keeps being so boastful with his statements—he's just pouring gasoline on the fire instead of realistically assessing his position and heading to the negotiating table. At the end of the day, every invaded nation in history has either defended itself or failed to, and Ukraine is no exception. They keep demanding weapons, yet they were already armed to the teeth and had all the time in the world to bolster their defenses; they can't blame others for the corruption happening on their own soil. Why should we be forced to solve their problems? He's trying to drag the entire world into what is, quite frankly, his private problem. Negotiations and ending the war is the only way out, likely involving some concessions because the situation isn't what it used to be before the fighting started. And the biggest farce of all? The USA, which dragged Europe into this mess in the first place, is now considering lifting the embargo on Russian oil imports. So, what happens? They'll probably just sell us that cheaper oil in the EU at a markup. That isn't just a slap on the wrist; it's a total knockout punch to a naive Europe.

Man, you really tried to troll him.
NATO isn't the issue—if it were, Russia would've gone after Sweden and Finland.
The issue is imperialism and just grabbing someone else's land. Russia has attacked basically all its neighbors. Is the USA to blame for that, too?

Bryan Booth82 said:Germany, no matter how you slice it.
Lp

A strong dollar drives up imports, while a weak one boosts exports.

Nathan Evans78 said:USD/RUB 58.03

USD/EUR 1.00

The Ruble isn't set by the market—it's being held up by heavy-handed government control. Once it actually hits the open market, it’ll be worthless trash. Right now? It's basically just cellophane over the truth.

Nancy Howard4 said:Why wouldn't it be possible though? Honestly, they were pulling the exact same shady moves as everyone else in the world—basically thinking "why bother building it ourselves when we can just pay someone else to do the heavy lifting?" It’s pretty obvious someone probably cut a deal, pocketed a massive kickback, and now everyone is just sitting around waiting for the repairs so the gas can start flowing again.

Look at what's happening right now with China, too; they're trying to grab superconductor tech from the Dutch, and now the Americans are absolutely losing their minds and have slapped direct bans on those sales.
Since Taiwan is basically the main hub for the superconductors that everybody needs—including China—you have to realize that if China manages to get their hands on that specific technology, nothing could stop them from turning Taiwan into a parking lot, because they won't be reliant on them anymore; they wouldn't even need an actual invasion, they could just level the playing field through industry alone.

98% of the global defense industry relies on semiconductors from Taiwan and South Korea. Where are the Dutch now?...

darkdriver said:God forbid anyone actually drops an atomic weapon—of any kind—on Ukraine.
The US would be wiped off the map before they could even blink, let alone retaliate.
That whole Chernobyl theory probably holds about as much water as those stories about dead soldiers on Snake Island miraculously coming back to life after being wiped out.
Apparently, Vladimir Putin is terminally ill—like, cancer is eating him alive just like how the Republican Party guts the federal budget.
But, I don't know, something feels weird to me... the media isn't really pushing those stories about his illnesses anymore. Like, those articles have just totally vanished.
Did he suddenly make a miraculous recovery, or was the whole thing just fake news and propaganda to begin with?

Look, there's one thing: media propaganda where they spin whatever story they want, and then there's the reality of Vladimir Putin telling the entire world that the West is just manufacturing excuses to attack Ukraine.
Basically, anything coming out of his mouth since the invasion started is either a lie or pure propaganda.

Kevin Murphy7 said:Look, man, if Russia dropped a nuke on Ukraine right now,
which other country would actually be willing to hit Russia back with the same level of force?

None of them.

Obviously not. But then again, Russia would end up totally isolated from the rest of the world.
We're talking everyone from China to India being completely done with them...

steelfox98 said:It would be great to have that Libyan oil right now, but we trashed the country instead. Damn.
Well, it would be great to have oil from Venezuela, too, but we tried to pull off a bloody coup there just like we did in Ukraine—a failed attempt that only managed to rally about 1,000 people out of a population of 30 million. We tried to assassinate Maduro, and that flopped, too. We dabbled in some counter-terrorism, caught a few guys. Very democratic stuff.
No point talking much about Iran.
MBS, an American ally, has been ignoring Biden's calls for months. Now, after everything Sleepy said, he’s got to swallow his pride and go begging in Riyadh.
And then we act surprised when our dear savior Borrell whines at the G20 summit about how the world doesn't understand us.

The global battle of narratives is in full swing and, for now, we are not winning. As the EU, we have to engage further to refute Russian lies and war propaganda.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/g20-...ilateralism_en

After a month of lying about how the Russians intentionally throttled gas flow while dodging questions about that controversial turbine, they're suddenly sending it back from service.

If the base amount A starts out higher, it stays ahead forever. Doesn't matter how fast the other side grows. I saw this play out once with a hedge fund client back in Chicago—growth rates are just noise if you aren't starting from the right position. Simple math. Cold, hard reality.
This kind of twisted math—where they can't even distinguish between growth rates and actual totals—belongs in a picture frame. I've seen some nonsense in my time, but this? Truly unique.
Just look at where China stood compared to the West forty years ago versus where they are today. It’s staggering. As for why they're outpacing us, it comes down to their entire culture—not that anyone bothered to write enough about it back then. Sure, starting from nothing gave them a massive advantage, but let's be real: they're closing the gap fast.

[User Not Found] [User Name] says:
My humble take? Putin will just keep playing this balancing act—trying to squeeze enough revenue to stay afloat while constantly screwing over the EU. A third of the supply isn't enough to build up any real reserves, but it’s just enough to keep the EU hooked on gas. He'll keep making threats, trying to walk into winter with as much leverage as possible to jack up the prices. Seen it all before.
Germany's stance on Putin and Russia is a mess. Disappointing, really. If it were up to Annalena, she’d have cut off that Russian gas supply in a heartbeat. I remember seeing similar hesitation back when we dealt with energy shifts in the States—just endless stalling.

We’ve all sat here reading those dire warnings from German experts about how this would trigger a massive recession. Even Robert Habeck said as much. Since he's the Secretary of Commerce, he's coming from the same party line. Given her track record and everything she's said lately, it's hardly surprising they pushed her to the back burner these last few months.
Ninety-five percent of the chemical industry relies on gas. Everything else just hooks onto those derivatives. Some sectors depend on it directly, too. It’s all a mess. We're looking at a projected 5 million unemployed. Just another day in this economy.

I don't know what to tell you. Just more noise in an already loud room. It’s all just going in circles. [User Name] says:
Putin has been pulling the strings on European politicians for ages through those non-market gas price concessions. It’s the same old story. I remember seeing similar backroom deals during my time working in DC; once the energy supply is leveraged, the sovereignty vanishes. Pure cynicism.

It’s the same old story. It’s like letting Russia hand-pick their own Prime Minister. I've seen this movie before.

After he sells out his own country to benefit Russia and finishes his term, I'm sure Putin will have a cushy job waiting for him at Gazprom. Typical.

Therein lies the fundamental divide between the American free-market system—which the Russian mafia types love to trash—and that shady Russian "godfather" alternative. I've seen enough of these power plays to know how they work.

Putin can offer his resources however he pleases, but the EU—like any sovereign nation wanting to remain so—should be defending such practices on their own end.

Is it really Germany's fault for choosing the cheapest supplier, someone who kept them supplied with cheap gas for 20 years just to stay competitive?
It's hardly a coincidence that after prices hit the stratosphere, Germany—after 30 years—had a month where they actually imported more than they exported.

You made an inaccurate claim, so per the forum rules, it's on you to provide a link.
Besides, it isn't hard to verify how their population has increased over the last 10 years (excluding Crimea), whereas we recently had our census and saw how things truly stand.

I don't know if these statistics were coincidentally taken from the last 4 weeks, but Russia just slashed deliveries by 60% during that specific window due to turbine maintenance. So, the picture looks quite different.

Here's a link https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/r...aphic-decline/.
There are plenty of articles like this...

urbanotter said:Around here, our dollar has always maintained a steady relationship with the euro.

But the situation with the ruble is fundamentally different; it's traded on the open market where the exchange rate fluctuates based on supply and demand rather than being propped up by Federal Reserve interventions using foreign reserves.

I provided the link specifically so you could see what the actual exchange rate looks like, which is 52.3 rubles per dollar.

As for the rest of the demagoguery—like the stuff being sold in this PDF—I haven't even had the time to sit down and read through it, so feel free to ignore it or just categorize it as political propaganda.

The ruble isn't "on the market." Are you lying to yourself or just to us?
Russia has banned foreigners from selling stocks, capped how many rubles citizens can swap for dollars, interest rates are north of 10%, and exporters are forced to hand over 80% of their hard currency to the state.
These brutal restrictions have completely choked any chance of converting rubles to dollars. If they actually let the market breathe and lifted those bans, the ruble would tank instantly.
If you’re holding a million dollars in Russia, sure, you can swap them for rubles at the official rate right now. But if you’ve got a million rubles? Nobody is giving you a single dollar.