Posts by Nathan Thomas12

electricsurfer47 said:I've been watching this video, and honestly, manufacturers aren't just hiking up prices... they've been playing games for the last two months.

It’s not just about the cost; they're actually shrinking everything. Shrinkflation is everywhere. A gallon of milk isn't really a full gallon anymore, but they keep the same size container so you don't even notice until you're pouring it.

They've even done it with butter—making the sticks smaller while raising the price. And because it's so expensive now, they've started putting the butter in those little plastic security boxes to stop people from shoplifting.

Then there's this other video where you can see how much color is missing from the packaging. Manufacturers are switching to plain white wrappers with fewer pictures and tiny logos just to save on ink.

Over in Russia, they still have American products and stuff from the European Union lying around, but that'll only last until the warehouses run dry. And you bet the prices are going up on whatever is left.

Every Russian in these videos knows the ruble is being artificially propped up; everyone realizes this kind of pricing can't last forever. Even the YouTubers there are walking on eggshells. They won't call the military operation what it actually is out of fear, so they use weird euphemisms like "the situation" or "that situation." Some are finally brave enough to call it a war, though.

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The ruble story is more complicated than it looks. Russia has frozen stock sales for foreigners, banks are limiting foreign currency withdrawals to tiny amounts, and export corporations are forced to convert 80% of their inflows into rubles.
The big thing to understand is the gap between the buy and sell rates—it's massive. If someone in Russia wants to buy rubles, they might hand over a dollar and get 60 rubles. But if they try to go the other way? The ruble is worthless. First off, there's basically no foreign currency available due to the reasons I mentioned, and even if they offered 200 rubles for a dollar, who's actually going to part with that single dollar?

Maria Wells14 said:For Russia, everything hinges on exporting energy, raw materials, and food.
That’s how they stack their cash.
They use that money to buy industrial goods.
If the West hits those products with sanctions, they'll just turn around and buy them from China instead.
Over the last thirty years, the West's slice of the global manufacturing pie has shrunk drastically. Practically anything they need, they can pick up somewhere else.
At the same time, Western demand for energy has skyrocketed—and there are only a handful of countries that can supply it.
Because of that, this whole policy of using sanctions doesn't have much of a shot at actually working.
The only thing that might actually work is military aid—if it leads to a decisive military defeat for the Russians.

But where are the Russians supposed to get cars, specialized machinery, jets, microchips, semiconductors... things only the West really cranks out?
They’re basically sliding twenty years into the past.

Paul Anderson7 said:Let’s be realistic here—sanctions aren't some magic wand designed to stop a war in its tracks right this second. Their real purpose is to prevent any future conflicts Russia might try to launch.
There was a slim chance that sanctions might actually deter Putin from escalating further and lead to some sort of civilized resolution, but we can pretty much kiss that idea goodbye now. At this point, Ukraine has to defend itself militarily, which means these sanctions need to stick around for decades.

Even if we decide to ease up on certain restrictions, the current direction the EU is taking—basically deciding that Russia is no longer a partner—is enough to turn Russia into a living hell on Earth within ten or twenty years. Honestly, it might happen even sooner.

No matter how this war wraps up, Russia has basically handed the win to the USA on a silver platter. There's no going back now.

Joshua Myers432 said:True enough, but that's a long game. If you want to crush an army in three days, you just load up some tractors and call it a day. Besides, economic sanctions often end up hitting the sender like a boomerang. That’s what Europe is facing. In my view, it would be great to take down Russia, but not by blowing ourselves up in the process.

Sanctions are basically a boomerang that Europe is choosing to take hits from for a while. But looking at the big picture? Russia is getting technologically gutted. Planes won't fly, medicine will run dry, telecom networks will fall apart... you name it. The fallout is going to be massive, and honestly, hard to even wrap your head around.

northernangler8 said:Oh, absolutely. It seems like anyone who doesn't parrot the officially sanctioned narrative is immediately branded a Russian shill or a spy. I guess we saw how miracle-working media propaganda worked during COVID—if you spread a single lie wide enough across the globe, you can eventually force people to believe only one thing. Most people struggle to think critically on their own, and after being bombarded with lies for long enough, they just stop having an opinion and settle for whatever is shoved down their throats. Back during the pandemic, if you didn't echo exactly what the politicians were saying, you were attacked from every possible angle. They’re doing the exact same thing now. If you don't fall in line, they try to bury you with labels and insults.

The US starts wars everywhere and dismantles any nation that refuses to bow down, all while labeling their leaders as dictators (which is a classic move for Americans). Then, of course, they always show up acting like the heroic saviors. It's the same old story.

It’s not like Putin just woke up one day and decided to invade to conquer Europe with this tiny little squad of an army. Honestly, I think US domestic politics regarding Ukraine essentially demanded a war. The US has nothing to lose here; they never have to fight a war on their own soil, and we can all see exactly who is profiting from this conflict: America.

Personally, I am strictly against war, but the actions being taken by Europe and Plenković are the complete opposite of that. Zelenskyy hasn't solved anything through negotiations. In fact, it seems like negotiations don't even suit them. I mean, imagine a newly minted Ukrainian politician finding it more convenient to let his people die rather than find a compromise to finally end the fighting.

Sure, the US has fought wars and done plenty of shady stuff, but please—give me one specific territory they actually annexed.

Meanwhile, the Russians have attacked all their neighbors and snatched territory from everyone.

So why isn't the West sending missiles?

frozencobra50 said:They should have just left them to deal with Russia on their own. Let nature take its course... whoever survives, survives.

In Bucha, they surrendered immediately, and we all know how that turned out.

Nathan Thomas12 said:So what, should America have just rolled over too?

Still dodging the question. Should America have just rolled over and surrendered?

northernangler8 said:Sanctions are going to end up hurting all of us, but honestly, I think Europe is going to take a much harder hit than Russia will—we’re already seeing the cracks with rising costs and the economic mess heading our way. And let’s get one thing straight: Putin isn't some dictator out on a crusade to conquer Europe; you guys need to stop feeding yourselves that nonsense. This is an entirely different kind of conflict. It's essentially a war between NATO and Russia, and I guess Ukraine is just caught in the crossfire of some really misguided political agendas. Instead of actually pushing for peace or a ceasefire, the leaders in Europe are just fueling the fire. By doubling down on sanctions and shipping off weapons, they might just be doing more harm to Ukrainian civilians in the long run.

Actually, sanctions hit Russia the hardest. Period. They're being cut off from Western markets and tech. Nobody makes it big without the West—not even China.

If he wasn't a dictator, his people wouldn't be catching 15-year sentences just for speaking their minds.

Back here in the States, you can talk trash about the government and nobody's coming for you.

Stop falling for the propaganda and the delusions.

electricsurfer47 said:I honestly don't get it... why hasn't Israel stepped up to help Ukraine with weapons? Or why aren't they doing more right now? It just doesn't make sense to me.

Word is there's a massive amount of Russians living in Israel... they probably don't need any more domestic drama to deal with.

boldotter2 said:Anyway, enough about Ukraine, let's talk a bit about how Russia is arming up...

It looks like the world's second strongest Army!!! has to smuggle in missiles, firecrackers, and all sorts of pyrotechnics through Georgia and Iran.
I guess what kind of 353452453D strategy is that? They sit on all those high-end hypersonic Kinzhals just so they can test out cheap Iranian copies instead. We'll probably never wrap our heads around it. Such an art form, I suppose.

So does that mean Ukraine gets the green light for missiles too?

Rachel Richardson said:If the Ukrainians can manage to liberate Donbas and Kyiv, then there’s Ukraine right into NATO.

And Putin is an absolute loser.
The kind of man who managed to push Finland—and maybe even Sweden—straight into NATO...

Putin managed to rally the entire West, plus NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia...

He basically boxed Russia in.

Now he just needs to figure out how to lose a war he thinks he's winning. They haven't gained much in a month and a half, and the weapons just keep rolling in. It’s only a matter of time before the heavy-duty missiles start arriving... if Putin can get gear from Iran, then Ukraine can too.

Long term? I don't see a way for an autocrat to actually beat out the capitalists and globalists.
I wouldn't be surprised if China eventually just pulls the rug out from under him.

northernangler8 said:People like you are nothing more than warmongers. Honestly, I bet there are plenty of people on this forum acting as agitators, whether they're pushing political agendas or just looking for a fight. Just look at what Irish MP Clara Daly has been saying. Sanctions aren't going to stop a war; if anything, they just drag it out. All they really do is punish ordinary citizens while the politicians and the elites stay perfectly fine. Those are the first ones to flee when things actually go south in Ukraine. People like you, who constantly back these conflicts, clearly haven't learned a single thing from history, which is why we keep seeing the same mistakes repeated over and over.

So what, should America have just rolled over too?

wiredseal7 said:https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ar-2022-04-13/

The Chinese giant CNOOC is looking to pull out of Western markets just to dodge any potential sanction headaches. It looks like China has already picked its favorite energy player to handle all the heavy lifting for Russian oil and gas imports.

Decoupling—exactly what Trump was aiming for, I guess.

Pretty soon, instead of getting banned from forums, we'll be getting hit with EU and US sanctions—anyone up for that?

Honestly, maybe it’s about time some of these Western companies started moving their operations out of China altogether.

northernangler8 said:People like you are nothing more than warmongers. Honestly, I bet there are plenty of people on this forum acting as agitators, whether they're pushing political agendas or just looking for a fight. Just look at what Irish MP Clara Daly has been saying. Sanctions aren't going to stop a war; if anything, they just drag it out. All they really do is punish ordinary citizens while the politicians and the elites stay perfectly fine. Those are the first ones to flee when things actually go south in Ukraine. People like you, who constantly back these conflicts, clearly haven't learned a single thing from history, which is why we keep seeing the same mistakes repeated over and over.

Look, sanctions might not end the fighting immediately, but they’ll gut the Russian economy in the long run. Honestly? They're too soft. We should ban Russians from traveling to Europe entirely and send everyone back home. We need an absolute wall when it comes to oil and gas.

hollowdriver13 said:The Ruble is back above 105 again. I’m sitting here wondering if the Russian Central Bank actually has enough gas left in the tank to pump more foreign currency into the market just to prop up the exchange rate, especially since they haven't even settled that foreign debt hitting the $4.4 billion mark.

They basically saved the currency by cranking interest rates up to 20%. Whatever the reason, you can't run an economy on rates like that. It’s suicide.

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goldenowl73 said:It looks like Indian companies are finally starting to play it safe when it comes to dealing with Russian oil, especially since they’ve already been snagging those sweet discounted prices for a while now.

exclusive news report Some banks have actually pulled the plug on credit lines for oil imports handled by Nayara, an Indian refiner owned by Rosneft, according to some sources https://www.reuters.com/business/exc...source=twitter

Honestly, it’d be a smart move if Asia just leaned harder into the Russian oil plan, letting the supply from South Africa and Qatar flow into Europe instead.

But everyone's playing it safe when it comes to the Russians.

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Bryan Gray91 said:Just this for Stephen, who seems to think these sanctions are actually going to tank the Russian economy and wreck their currency 🤣

Record Profits for Russia, Easily Avoiding Sanctions

USD-RUB

Don't forget—interbank rates in Russia are sitting at 20%. That means if you want a loan, you're looking at 25% interest or higher. It’s all a facade. Their currency is trash.

The US can make twice as much money starting now, but they're totally cut off from Western markets and tech. Eventually, those cracks turn into craters. They won't even be able to fly planes...

Nancy Gomez26 said:Can someone please explain what the Russian Federation actually does with the revenue they pull from selling gas to the EU? What can they even accomplish with those funds once they've been cleared? I should clarify—I'm not talking about physical piles of cash, but rather simple digital entries sitting in some computer database somewhere.

JPMorgan Chase hasn't been kicked out of SWIFT—meaning, not every single bank is off the grid yet.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Fine, let’s assume they aren't in default and their rating is A +++++++. Even then, how does anyone lend to them? How do you actually wire funds to an account when they are cut off from SWIFT? Suppose someone manages to get money into an account—who would they even buy from with that cash? They can't move money out of the account to pay international suppliers if they aren't in SWIFT. And even if they did manage a purchase, how would they physically bring goods home? Eventually, all trade will dwindle down to small-scale, border-town cash transactions through China, Kazakhstan, and perhaps some other Central Asian nation where people are desperate enough for any kind of profit. Maybe there will be some complex barter schemes involving goods with China, but that’s just discounted liquidation. If this persists, I expect life along certain borders to become very interesting.

The current US default situation—if we look at it through that lens—is really only a problem for the creditors. It’s the lenders who will miss their scheduled repayments. It isn't that the US won't have the money to pay those installments; it's the fallout for the banks. There is an old saying: if you owe $100,000, you have a problem; if you owe $100,000,000, the bank has a problem. I have no idea what the actual debt levels or the immediate obligations are, but theoretically, if we are talking about massive sums, the global economy—which is already struggling—could certainly feel the impact.

From what I gather, the BRICS nations are planning to roll out their own alternative to SWIFT.