Posts by Nathan Thomas12

urbanotter said:I honestly have no idea what you mean by those numbers, 12,500 and 17,300.

When you take a look at the list of countries ranked by GDP per capita—which is widely considered one of the primary indicators of a nation's standard of living—an objective observer would notice that Russia and the United States are actually quite close in terms of GDP per capita.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_per_capita

Furthermore, one must also account for purchasing power parity and the actual amount of disposable income an average citizen retains after covering their essential cost of living.

I won't bother commenting on your crystal ball predictions, but I will reiterate my own point: the availability of cheaper emerging markets provides a massive advantage to countries that didn't join the sanctions against Russia. Those who did implement sanctions are forced to buy energy on the open stock exchange, often paying up to 40% more.

And as for those fears regarding the exodus of roughly 300,000 Russian citizens moving abroad—when you consider they have a population of 140 million, that migration is statistically insignificant. It would be like if ten thousand people left a mid-sized American city; it doesn't change the fundamental scale of the nation.

Russia has some deep, structural issues with their population demographics and birth rates. This isn't new—it's been brewing for a long time, and they're in a way worse spot than we are. You can look that up yourself.
The war definitely isn't helping matters.

steelfox98 said:Eighty percent of the globe hasn't even touched Russia with sanctions. Even close US allies like Mexico—or take Israel, for that matter—haven't moved an inch. In fact, most of them maintain perfectly fine relations with Russia and show zero interest in changing that. Just another day in this messy world.
A few months back, when I dropped this exact figure, a bunch of "experts" popped up just to tell me the rest of the world doesn't matter because the West controls 50% of global GDP. Funny how fast the narrative shifts once reality hits the fan. It doesn't matter what we think on this forum, but that dismissive, West-centric attitude has always been the playbook—and the rest of the world sees right through it. No wonder one of Russia's biggest rivals, MBS, recently suggested he'd rather cut deals with the Russians who actually respect an agreement than deal with us and our habit of breaking them. But sure, let's go back to our old arrogance, pretending the rest of the world is irrelevant and everyone else is too blind to notice.

A couple of months back, this same user was peddling the exact same nonsense. Back then, they went even further, insisting we should just shut down all energy imports immediately because—get this—“we'll just get electricity from the wall outlet.” They never once bothered to explain where that power was actually supposed to come from. Typical. 🤣
Progress is finally visible.

John Deere. Just another cog in the machine. I remember seeing one of those massive tractors idling outside a diner back in Iowa—smelled like diesel and broken promises. Same old story. Terry Hernandez10 says:
Given Putin's age, a regime change is almost inevitable long before any fifty-year milestone. Will the successor follow the exact same playbook? Who knows. But it would be incredibly foolish to just keep doing the same thing without trying to pivot. If you look at the history of the USSR—which the current Russian policy mimics quite closely—every new leader introduced significant shifts, even within such a rigid system. Stalin was different from Lenin; Khrushchev was different from Stalin; Brezhnev from Khrushchev; even Andropov, despite his short stint, was highly critical of those "years of stagnation." Then there was Chernenko, who was perhaps the only outlier because he failed to truly grasp control, much like how Andropov managed to leave his mark. Finally, Gorbachev was the icing on that cake. At the end of the day, both Yeltsin and Putin had distinct styles, so it's likely someone will emerge after Putin with fresh ideas, even if they have to use the old structures to seize power.

Looking at the fallout after Putin, the only person who could step in is someone even more hostile toward the West.
We all know truth is the first casualty in war, but today's news coverage has devolved into a full-blown propaganda binge. Sure, the Russians have messed up plenty—as happens in every war—but there’s zero balance here, no alternative perspective whatsoever. It’s not like some Russians aren't watching how the other side reports this; I highly doubt they enjoy what they see. Are people really going to be foolish enough to vote for some pro-Western politician because of this?
Every action triggers a reaction. In this case, the result is a galvanized Western public opinion, while the Russians—who might have once found the West attractive—have completely shut out.

What triggered the conflict is a massive topic for another thread, but Putin has been warning us since 2007. This tragedy isn't some random outburst; it's a long-planned reaction from Russian leadership who felt backed into a corner.
It brings us back to that old idea of "what's legal for one isn't for the other"—how we spent years trying to stomp on the Russians, and out of pure arrogance, refused any dialogue with them until the bitter end.

EDIT: Does anyone remember the shock when the Russians demanded payment in rubles? People were acting like, "How dare they! That violates our sanctions!" Or look at the recent turbine situation.
That perfectly illustrates the mental capacity of our esteemed leaders. They are completely detached from reality, drafting grandiose plans on paper that could easily push us into a recession, or even a depression.

Total misunderstanding and ignoring the opposing side hasn't made anyone happy.

The bottom line is that Russia attacked all its neighbors and took territory from all of them. They want to control everyone and would be happiest if they had the borders of the USSR again. We all know they're imperialists.
Europe shot itself in the foot, but that's short-term. No matter how bad the winter gets, it'll pass and energy issues will get sorted—it won't happen overnight. Long-term, Russia is a huge loser because nobody can function without the West, not even China.

Drew Booth60 said:This whole conflict has really hammered home the fact that Russia—even with a GDP roughly comparable to Spain's—is still a massive global superpower. It’s that sheer scale combined with those insane natural resources that gives them this massive leverage over a bunch of countries that are basically hooked on them. Some are addicted to their energy, while others are stuck depending on them for food.

Take Egypt, for example. They import about 85% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. We're talking about a nation where poverty is widespread and bread is the absolute cornerstone of survival. A country like that simply cannot afford to turn against Russia; if they did, they’d be staring down a total collapse similar to what happened in Sri Lanka. People will put up with just about anything, but you don't mess with their power supply or, more importantly, their food supply—and those are exactly the two things Russia dominates. In that sense, they’ve built up a massive roster of dependents. Honestly, even the USA doesn't have quite that many countries tethered to them in a way that prevents them from speaking out.

It makes you wonder what the future holds, but right now, Russia has a huge chunk of the world by the short hairs. Take India, for instance—they aren't dependent on Russia for food or energy, but they do rely on them for weaponry, which is still a massive factor in the equation.

Exactly, those are the West's headaches. But the West will sort its issues out in a few years, while Russia ends up isolated from the West in the long run.
Basically, Russia takes the biggest hit long-term, whereas Europe just feels the sting short-term. In the end, Russia is pretty much destined to be China's errand boy.

Chemours said:New mantra

After those first few days of sanctions where everyone was basically masturbating over the massive crash of the Ruble—thinking the economy would just hit rock bottom and stay there through the winter—they started pivoting once those fantasies fell flat. Now it’s all about this long-term narrative, claiming sanctions will eventually show their "full potential."

So, either you're intentionally lying or you just don't get it.
In Russia, sure, you can hand over a dollar and get 60 rubles, but you can't turn those rubles back into dollars—it's heavily restricted.
Plus, any firm exporting goods is forced to convert 80% of their foreign currency inflows back into rubles.
The state simply doesn't release the hard currency.
Outside of Russia, if you somehow ended up with 10 million rubles, you might as well use them as toilet paper because you couldn't even buy a pack of gum with them.
It's not like the neighbors are crazy—there are millions of sane people in the West, not just in Russia.

analogbear5 said:By the standards of the guys sitting on their porches judging everyone else's ride, anything that isn't a German luxury car is just a piece of junk.

So, what are you driving now, and what's been in your garage before this?
Let me guess—something made in Russia or China?

rowdyraven112 said:I guess I'm viewed the same way too. I don't hate the West; I just enjoy poking the people who hate everything Russian just to see what happens.

BTW, moving away from politics—a Lada was an incredible car for those brutal winters in rural Pennsylvania. Short wheelbase, pure grit. It would plow through half a meter of snow where the best Western SUV's wouldn't even budge (I've seen it myself). During that big earthquake near Petrinja, you saw the true misery of Western SUV's that couldn't even reach certain areas.
Too bad today's LADA has traded its rugged soul for that fancy, westernized SUV look. Now they're worth exactly what those Western vehicles are worth: nothing. Just all show.
By chasing those western aesthetics, LADA lost its identity. It used to be a beast for rough terrain. Not long ago, before everyone switched over to Range Rover, our Red Cross relied heavily on those old Russian Ladas. Only downside? No legroom.☕

Back to the sanctions. A bunch of people hating on everything Russian confidently claimed that Arabs would ramp up oil and gas production to replace the Russian supply. Here's a logical question: Why would an Arab increase production and drive down oil prices when they're at historic highs, essentially throwing money out of their own pockets? Solidarity? The only time Arabs showed solidarity was with Egypt during the Cyprus War.☕

You're comparing apples to oranges here. An SUV is a "lifestyle" vehicle—that's how they're marketed, and the manufacturers basically admit they aren't off-roaders. If you actually want an off-road machine, you grab a Toyota Land Cruiser or a Volkswagen. You really want to compare that to a Chevrolet?

If we're all haters of everything Russian, then you're clearly a fan of a nation that wants borders stretching across the old USSR!!! They're constantly terrorizing and attacking their neighbors and snatching up territory... it never stops.

Tyler Bennett73 said:Man, I still remember how the European Union and the USA were feeding us this whole fairy tale when those first sanction packages dropped—telling us Russia would be completely broke by mid-April. Well, guess what? It’s already been seven months, and the Ruble is sitting there looking stronger than ever while the Euro is basically in a death spiral. Look, I'm not saying sanctions won't do *anything*, but they're definitely going to trigger some massive backlashes. The real question is: how much is the European Union actually going to take the hit for all this? Right now, we're just seeing the winners rake it in: China, the USA, India, Turkey. Pretty soon, politicians are gonna have to deal with people losing their minds over shrinking wallets—and honestly, who knows? We might even see another "random" pandemic pop up this winter, just "coincidentally" appearing right when things get messy.

The Ruble is worthless. You could have a billion rubles stuffed in your sock and you wouldn't even be able to buy a stick of gum—and if you tried to use it in Russia, nobody's going to swap it for dollars or euros for you.

brightheron64 said:But I have to wonder, what kind of magic tricks could actually cause such a drastic drop in oil demand? 🤔 Road transport doesn't even account for half of global consumption. Even if we entertained the idea of a world without cars, how on earth could we imagine one without heavy-duty trucks or massive transit buses?...

Just as a side note, last year's projections suggested demand would climb by 5% while production only grew by 2% through 2026. But now, with wars and sanctions thrown into the mix... well, only the folks in the Middle East (and Russia) truly know what actual production numbers will look like...

I still remember the lockdowns—demand cratered and we saw spot prices go negative. You remember that?

goldenowl73 said:A former finance minister actually told Putin what everyone else is too terrified to even whisper: "Our economy is headed straight for a disaster!"

B

The former finance minister of the Russian Federation, Alexei Kudrin, gave Vladimir Putin a blunt warning that the war in Ukraine is going to absolutely wreck the Russian economy, according to reports from the independent news outlet Meduza.

Citing two different sources inside The Kremlin, Meduza is reporting that Kudrin—speaking in his capacity as head of the parliamentary Department of Finance—sat down with Putin back in March. Interestingly, the President's office didn't officially announce that meeting until June 14th of this year, and even then, their official press release conveniently left out any mention of the situation in Ukraine.

It feels like everyone is just freaking out over gas prices while the sanctions are actually tearing the country apart. After the CEO of JPMorgan Chase basically said Russia would still be feeling the sting of these sanctions ten years down the road, we now have yet another voice who actually knows what they're talking about—unlike some other folks—predicting that the brutal times ahead for Russia have already kicked in.

Russia is going to have a hell of a time digging itself out of this mess. They can lie to themselves and the rest of the world all they want, claiming these sanctions aren't doing anything or that they're actually making them stronger, but when reality finally hits them right in the face, that blow is going to be even more devastating.

This is the true state of Russia and its provinces today. The salary of an American nurse in the village was shocking.

And honestly, even without sanctions, Russia is a nation on the brink of extinction. They’ve got deep, structural issues—way bigger than anything in the US—when it comes to birth rates and population decline.
As far as sanctions go, pretty much every developed nation built itself up on the dollar—from China and South Korea to Japan and even Russia.
The Cold War ended with the collapse of the USSR, but now we're back in a Cold War era that's going to drag on. Europe will suffer through it for a few years, but this Cold War only ends when Russia falls apart. Doesn't matter how things wrap up in Ukraine.

Noah Diaz said:To goes perfectly with this old saying:
Don't go looking for trouble when you can't handle it.

By the way, the West already swapped its gas station once before, but everyone seems to have forgotten. I'm talking about that massive oil crisis back in the seventies and the brutal economic meltdown that followed across the West.

They’d love to head back to those old pumps right about now, but there's a catch: the Middle East is a powder keg, and the Russian pyromaniacs are just waiting in the shadows with a lighter. 😁

Why would Russia bother lighting anything? They’re actually doing fine despite the sanctions—in fact, they’re pulling in ten times the profit by just pivoting toward India and South Korea.

Amanda Allen4 said:We are supposed to be discussing the current war in Ukraine, yet some people insist on dragging up arguments from past conflicts to justify everything happening today.

Imagine walking into a courtroom where the defense attorney tries to justify a murder charge by bringing up other murders that happened years ago—completely unrelated to the case at hand—just to defend their client.

Can you even imagine something more idiotic than that?

For our neighbors to the east, that's basically their only playbook—but only when it suits them.
Regardless, those eastern neighbors have really opened our eyes during this war. I honestly thought they'd grown out of this stuff and actually civilized... guess you live and learn, I suppose.

Joshua Myers432 said:If the Soviets hadn't turned the tide on the Eastern Front—and they were damn close to folding—Americans would NEVER have landed in Europe. Instead, they spent months grinding through Normandy and Italy against German reserves. They would have ended up just like the British, beaten years earlier.

And maybe they would've folded if it wasn't for all the American aid. Either way, leading up to D-Day, the US was churning out gear at least five times faster than Germany could. No matter how you slice it, the US had the upper hand there.
For the Russians, the only thing they could truly count on was that American help...

Joshua Myers432 said:I don't recall any side in that conflict successfully wearing down Russia and then walking away with a victory at the end. 🤔

Au contraire. In the end, the exhausted party surrendered, even though their troops were positioned deep within enemy territory.

The only takeaway from these conflicts is that Americans arm everyone and everything, wait until the very last second to jump in, and then swoop in to claim all the credit. Historia est magistra vitae.

Look, during WWII, the Russians got 13,000 planes and over 300,000 trucks from the Americans—not to mention everything else. But sure, let's pretend they just sat on all that gear and marched into Berlin using only their own stuff, just so they could snatch the credit away from the Americans.

William Anderson5 said:It honestly feels like that’s exactly how you all see it. Russia cuts ties with the West, pivots toward China, and suddenly everything is fine. It doesn't work that way for Netflix subscribers. Replacing an entire energy supply is going to be a lot more complicated than just switching gas stations...

Plus, this whole "pivot to China" plan is built on shaky ground. Apple is leaving, and Russia is too.

Noah Diaz said:The SCO nations account for 30% of global GDP and house 40% of the world's population.

I’m laying this out to demonstrate how utterly pointless the sanctions against Russia are.

Of course China isn't going to sabotage itself; they are actually the sole winners in this conflict. Everyone is fully aware that if their red lines are crossed—specifically regarding Taiwan or the South China Sea—they won't give a second thought to European Union idiocy or American hegemony. Just as the Russians didn't hesitate when entering the war with Ukraine.

The European Union is a political dwarf. It holds zero real decision-making power on the global stage and exists entirely at the mercy of its suppliers, so long as those suppliers continue to profit off European fools.

Combined, the SCO nations don't even have a GDP as big as the USA. They make up roughly 25% of global GDP. Look, I'm an economist, but even from a layman's perspective, it's obvious: millions of people live in the West, while there are only about 15,000 [of certain group] in Russia.
Don't forget though—every major developed nation, including China, built itself up thanks to the US Dollar and Western influence.
At the end of the day, the Chinese economy is sitting on $35 trillion in debt.

George Robinson43 said:A nation capable of landing Rovers on Mars can no longer be dismissed as just a workshop for the West.
They are doing everything in their power to transition away from being a mere manufacturer, and they are succeeding brilliantly.

A place is only a "factory" for the West as long as Western companies actually have plants there. Once those factories pack up and move to South America or Africa, then the label stops sticking.

Noah Diaz said:I think China would handle losing a market of 500 million people much more gracefully than the EU could handle losing a market of 4 billion, especially with fossil fuel shortages and resource scarcity looming. In that scenario, the sheer idiocy of the EU would plunge them straight back into the Middle Ages overnight.

That’s exactly what happens when China launches a "special operation" to reclaim Taiwan and achieve unification. It isn't a matter of if it will happen—it's strictly a matter of when.

All this talk about military and political alliances is child's play. Real alliances require shared values and mutual trust. That kind of bond will never exist between Russia and China. And honestly, only you would try to wedge India into that equation, considering they are a geopolitical rival to China.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is essentially a massive geopolitical heavyweight sitting right at the heart of Eurasia. Think of it as a powerhouse bloc where major players like China, Russia, and India all sit around the same table to tackle everything from regional security to economic integration. It’s not just some casual club; it's a structured organization designed to bolster stability and cooperation across a huge stretch of territory. While its origins were rooted in border security and fighting against things like terrorism and separatism, it has evolved into a much broader platform for influence. It’s a fascinating look at how power dynamics shift when these massive nations decide to coordinate their efforts on the global stage.

Back in July 2015 in Ufa, Russia, the SCO made the call to bring India and Pakistan in as full members. They both officially signed the memorandum of obligations in June 2016 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, kicking off the formal process to join the group as full members. On June 9, 2017, during a summit held in Astana, India and Pakistan officially became full members of the SCO.

Look, those fierce rivals—India and Pakistan—stepped up at the exact same time. You want to know what they actually have in common? They’re both hell-bent on toppling American hegemony and knocking its allies off the global throne.

You're being a bit full of yourself, if you don't mind me saying.
The raw population numbers don't mean squat here—if we went by your logic, the Indian economy would somehow be three times larger than the entire West combined.
The real question is whether massive factories and high-end tech flowed into China from India or from the West. As of right now, China is still basically the manufacturing floor for the West, and it'll stay that way for quite a while. Sure, you're entitled to your opinion, but as an economist, that sounds incredibly idiotic to me. By your math, the economies of Switzerland and Mexico are basically the same, even though they aren't even in the same universe. Maybe one day you'll catch up.
Bottom line: every modern nation was built on the back of the dollar and Western tech.
The Cold War ended with the collapse of the USSR, which led to Russia opening up to the West and seeing massive growth. Now, we're seeing the reverse process play out.

analogbear5 said:Nobody’s really broken down why Russia would want such a rock-solid ruble when their whole economy lives or dies by exports—logic says a weaker currency would be much better for them.

It's the same deal in the US—an overpowered dollar eats into profits, so it’d actually be a win if it weakened a bit.

The ruble isn't "strong" at all—it's basically trash on the global market. Demand for dollars in Russia is totally choked because people can't even convert their savings.
A huge part of this is that interest rate sitting north of 10%—which is basically junk bond territory for a currency. That's just the interbank rate, too; rates for regular people and businesses are even higher. It's effectively a total freeze on investment.

Bryan Booth82 said:I can’t help but crack a smile every single time I read about how Russia and China have decided to join forces. 🤣🤣

Honestly, it sounds just like someone who has lost hundreds of tanks and tens of thousands of soldiers, yet still insists they aren't actually in a war. 🤦

The only thing that would sound even more ridiculous is claiming that Germany and Bangladesh have formed a strategic alliance just to mass-produce... sneakers and T-shirts.
Best regards,

Modern China was built on Western dependency and it’s going to stay tethered to the West. Look at Apple leaving the Russian market—other corporations that rely heavily on Western business won't tie themselves too closely to the Russians, otherwise they'll get crushed by sanctions and lose their future entirely.
Modern Russia was also developed using dollars and Western tech; without that, I don't see any way for Russia to actually move forward. No country can pull that off—unless, maybe, the East builds its own separate financial system. If that happens, the real question is whether the West will bother keeping factories in China, especially since the Chinese economy is sitting on $35 trillion in debt anyway.