Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
The real reason everything is spiraling out of control right now boils down to speculators, people freaking out over nothing, and everyone trying to hoard supplies like it's the end of the world..
Home ›
hiddeneagle98 › Posts
Posts by hiddeneagle98
301 posts shown.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Douglas Sanchez5 said:Look, that statement doesn't really mean much on its own—not at all. I mean, just look back at what Zelenskyy and his advisors were saying right before the invasion, and then compare it to what they were saying once things actually started kicking off. They were basically telling everyone they thought the Russian troops weren't organized enough to pull off an attack, so why worry? Between the state of the media and the public polls about whether a war would even happen... it was a whole thing.
Before the invasion, the narrative was all about how Russia just wanted to bleed them economically dry, and they were even telling Americans to chill out with the "dangerous rhetoric" because it was supposedly hurting the economy. Not to mention the media landscape—everyone just seemed convinced a war wasn't coming, and the bottom line was that they didn't even start mass mobilization while the Russian military was literally gathering right on their doorstep.
I’ve been following this whole crisis-turned-catastrophe very closely—really deep-diving into it—and from everything I’ve seen, the Ukrainians really didn't see this attack coming. It's not that they didn't do *any* prep work, of course, but they just didn't think a full-scale military action was likely, nor did they think they'd have to make such massive concessions.
If they had mentally prepared the country for war back in November—you know, through mass mobilization, some media hype, getting people out there digging trenches or mining access roads, and describing the horrors of what was coming—maybe they could have pushed through a Minsk 2 deal. Or, hey, maybe those preparations would have sent a message that a shock attack and a three-day blitz to take the capital wouldn't just work.
I'm constantly running through different scenarios in my head, trying to figure out how this disaster could have been avoided—there were so many turning points! For instance, if the West had reacted way more aggressively toward Crimea, or looking back at Georgia in 2008, I honestly don't think this catastrophe would have happened. Or if Zelenskyy hadn't arrested Medvečuk and shut down that propaganda channel—which, by the way, totally killed Putin's belief that he could just install his own people at the top of the government. And if the Ukrainians had just agreed to Minsk 2...
Of course, Putin is the one responsible here. But I find myself constantly weighing the actions of the other players, too—taking into account who Putin is, the fact that he's a criminal ideologue, and the absolute shitty options they were left with.
I honestly believe Zelenskyy was playing dumb on purpose to let the Russians in like that.
The whole idea was to let them inside, get them close to civilians, and then use that to whip the population into a frenzy against them. The Ukrainian military isn't exactly equipped to defend open territory anyway, so the total absence of things like minefields or roadblocks is hard to explain away as mere naivety.
During that first week, it felt like there was nothing but carefully curated propaganda. You had Zelenskyy and Klitschko whining about how the Russians were destroying everything, paired with a few select images that looked like they were from 1923 because nobody had a smartphone, plus some poser shots of people messing with Styrofoam while making Molotov cocktails—like that one shot of someone throwing one at a tank, which we then see momentarily driving aimlessly down a street. There was virtually no footage of actual combat, no army to be seen; it was just Zelenskyy and Klitschko parading around and ramping up the emotions.
An "independent Ukraine" lacked that anti-Russian fervor and the international support needed for resistance, so that’s how they achieved it: they derailed the Russian plan and pulled Europe into it. That’s just how nations forge themselves, unfortunately.
It’s not so much that the FSB misjudged the public mood before the invasion, but rather that they underestimated how effective propaganda could be at using the invasion itself. The Americans had already framed it as an invasion, which was the first sign that things wouldn't go according to plan—it was the beginning of the derailment. Within a single week, they generated enough citizen resistance to ensure things would escalate naturally.
Frustrated by their failure, the Russians soon started actually shelling everything, and it became obvious that this wasn't just propaganda. Now, especially after the retreats and those sickening scenes of war crimes, the anti-Russian sentiment is at an absolute maximum.
In Bucha, it looks like they were targeted specifically because civilians had helped in a devastating ambush of a Russian convoy in the middle of the city earlier on.
Don't get me wrong here—I honestly think this might have been the one real shot the people of Ukraine had to finally shake off the "bear's" embrace. Any other path, whether it was trying to play nice or just kicking the can down the road, would have been nothing more than naive wishful thinking. If anything, it’s probably better that the mask slipped on the Russians now rather than later. Or, looking at it another way, maybe the rest of the world has finally seen the KGB-style reality for what it actually is. Honestly, after seeing the kind of propaganda coming out of the Kremlin lately and listening to Putin's rhetoric, you have to be a complete degenerate to support Russia openly, and an absolute hypocrite to do it behind closed doors.
But the question remains: what are we supposed to do about this KGB-style regime now?
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Andrew Miller102 said:If you actually bother to read the links,😁 everything clearly distinguishes between what relates to sanctions and what's a direct result of the war in Ukraine. There simply isn't any Neon coming from Ukraine anymore; production has either ground to a halt or died off entirely.
Ingas, a firm based in Mariupol,
Cryoin, a firm out of Odesa.
If you pay any attention to where chips are manufactured, you'll realize the major players are incredibly worried. TSMC in Taiwan is leading that anxiety, which makes sense given they are the linchpin for most Western customers. AMD, Qualcomm, Sony, Microsoft, Nvidia, MediaTek, and Apple are just a few names on a much longer list of companies whose hardware relies directly on TSMC's production capacity.
Europe seems to produce nothing but politicians and fog; if TSMC production ever stops for any reason—and China is always lurking nearby—we're looking at an epic-scale crisis. Even the auto industry is heavily dependent on TSMC for the various chips and SoCs integrated into modern vehicles.☕
If you were actually following this, you'd know that the U.S. is busy building its own chip fabs right here at home and over in Germany so they aren't tethered to Taiwan, and word is they've even mined some of those overseas plants just in case things go south.
The whole Neon issue will eventually sort itself out.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
I just don't get it. Are we really supposed to believe that Putin invaded Ukraine just to line the pockets of big business in the USA?
I don't know what to tell you, but I think we need to take a serious look at how things are being handled lately. It feels like we're constantly spinning our wheels, running in circles while everyone else seems to have a clear roadmap. It’s like watching someone try to navigate a massive construction zone in downtown Chicago without a GPS—just total chaos and zero direction. You see these big decisions being made, these sweeping movements that supposedly serve the public interest, but when you actually peel back the layers, it feels less like a strategic plan and more like a desperate scramble to keep the lights on. We’re told everything is under control, that the gears are turning smoothly, but if you look at the actual results, there’s a massive gap between the rhetoric and the reality on the ground. It’s frustrating because it isn't just one mistake; it's this systemic pattern of overpromising and underdelivering that makes you wonder if anyone is actually at the helm. kaže:
We really need to throw in the most budget-friendly option as well, just to round things out. Look, if we start relying on liquefied natural gas coming out of Qatar or whatever deals Amer manages to strike, you can bet your life the prices are going to be absolutely astronomical. We're talking sky-high, gut-wrenching costs. You can't just expect some alternative gas supply to suddenly fall from the sky and solve everything, especially not right now. That’s the real kicker—there's no quick fix waiting around the corner, and that's exactly where we're stuck.
The US is basically fighting a proxy war against Russia through Ukraine, which just happens to be the perfect setup for America to happily sell overpriced gas to the Germans. At the end of the day, it’s all about the bottom line and padding those profit margins. But honestly, I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: conflict like this is inevitable. It's just how the world works.☕
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
wiredseal7 said:I don't know about some parallel universe, but over here—it looks like they skipped right over the opening act (and by that, I mean the snipers).
So, what actually went down before the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014? And since you’re asking about Crimea—what was the deal with the new administration's plan to sign that 50-year lease for the port in Sevastopol?
They weren't exactly in a position to dictate terms back then—it was humiliating, sure, but it kept things from going south completely. If they had just stuck to the part about ending the conflict and getting life back to normal in those areas, we wouldn't be here. Instead, they went and doubled down by mobilizing over a thousand soldiers for an offensive on two separate occasions.
Vladimir Putin probably wants this whole thing wrapped up just so he can bury the hatchet with the European Union—get those remaining sanctions lifted and keep the cash flowing into his pockets.
They didn't really want to greenlight something like that—the Brits were pretty much on the same page—but the European Union should have stepped up, been more assertive, and forced the Ukrainians to just wrap things up over there.
Now instead we’re stuck watching this massive slaughter and the total devastation of eastern Ukraine—honestly, you decide which is better.
There is absolutely no doubt about it: after another 10 or 20 years of the Russian Federation funneling money into Europe and using KGB tactics to tear the continent apart by backing populists, fake news peddlers, and various oligarch types, their ultimate goal will be to swallow the entire former Warsaw Pact zone. Then we’ll see how much fun everyone is having.
We were all so convinced that we should have just let Vladimir Putin go, given him whatever he wanted just to keep him from getting angry. You know, because the more we let him run wild, the better. After all, if only the innocent suffer, it’s probably best not to resist.
Oh, absolutely—the more crimes Vladimir Putin commits in Ukraine, the more certain we become that we should have just catered to his every whim.
Maybe throw in a few more thermobaric bombs or some more civilian casualties, and I’ll just stand here and ceremoniously scatter ashes over the whole thing. Truly, I am increasingly convinced that all of this could have been avoided if we had simply guaranteed Russia that they were allowed to invade Ukraine—or rather, that NATO wouldn't defend it. Now, Russia is especially terrified that NATO might step in, which is why they are ramping up the destruction of Ukrainian cities and creating a humanitarian catastrophe. Those are clearly the rational, geopolitical imperatives at play here.
The whole "if I can't have it, nobody can" geopolitical doctrine stems directly from the interests of the Russian people, and it is the world's duty to serve the supreme servant of that nation.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
So, here’s the thing: the Germans are going to be out there buying up rubles using dollars, which is just going to drive their prices through the roof and make everything even more expensive for them. And then you have to wonder, how are the Russians supposed to get their hands on the dollars they actually need if they're stuck playing that game with rubles?
I mean, honestly, that banker of his isn't doing a bad job at all, especially when you consider the absolute mess of conditions he's forced to operate under.
I mean, honestly, that banker of his isn't doing a bad job at all, especially when you consider the absolute mess of conditions he's forced to operate under.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
The dollar is making its comeback after days of sliding, and now we're seeing it dip below the $100 mark
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:And they'll probably rename the whole operation Zola and McDonald's.
It isn't even really about Western junk food for Russians; the real sting is losing access to an iPhone, a MacBook, a PlayStation, a brand new BMW, or even just being able to get their current car fixed.
The core issue is that they can't do business with the West anymore, ranging from individual IT freelancers all the way up to the massive corporations.
If things continue down this path—where they end up selling their oil and gas at a 25% discount just to move it—we're looking at a total systemic collapse for Russia across every single level of society.
They might not starve, but in every other sense, they’re going to be living like they're stuck in one giant, open-air prison.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:Honestly, that’s just nonsense; no matter how you spin it, Russia is going to demand payment for their gas in whatever currency they decide fits their interests at the moment.
If they start insisting on being paid in rubles, anyone who actually needs that gas is simply going to have to go out and buy rubles using dollars, euros, or whatever other major currency Russia decides to accept.
The reality is more likely to play out through massive legal battles where oligarchs see their global assets frozen, and in retaliation, Russia freezes the assets of Western corporations operating within their borders.
It’s a bit like how if Abramovich were to lose Chelsea, he might end up seizing control of something like Coca-Cola or McDonald's to keep his revenue streams moving.
At the end of the day, most of this feels like political theater designed to scare the average person, while the truly powerful and wealthy find ways to ensure they don't actually lose much of anything.
Are you even reading this? Russia has to pay the Bulgarians to move that gas through to Mexico.
The Bulgarians aren't taking rubles. They’ve already made it clear they’ll shut down the pipeline to the Russians—or rather, to Mexico—if the money doesn't come in dollars.
Instead, Russia is just going to sell their oil to China at a massive 5x discount in exchange for yuan, which they can then immediately dump straight back into Chinese tech.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:I honestly find it hard to believe that Bulgaria would actually shut down the pipeline. Besides, looking at the scale of things, Mexico isn't such a massive consumer that anyone would go to extreme lengths over them.
Even if they do end up selling oil at a discount, it’s still going to be more profitable than waiting for everything to settle back to the status quo. It's simple supply and demand: the higher the global congestion and the greater the hunger for oil and gas, the higher the prices climb, which means you get more even with a smaller margin.
I do agree with the point about them trading in yuan to purchase Chinese goods; that seems to be one of their primary objectives. If that happens, the Federal Reserve could print money all they want, but it won't have the same impact it used to. All it will really do is drive inflation much higher than the current 8% we're seeing.
But it looks like they needed a little nudge from those sanctions to actually make those moves happen.
At that point, the Federal Reserve can print as much paper as they want, but it won't do the good it used to. All they'll be doing is driving inflation even higher, likely way past that current 8% mark.
Right, because once this economic heavyweight, Russia, gets pushed even harder by sanctions and the war and decides to pivot toward the Yuan in the West, the whole system is basically going to collapse.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Christian Torres3 said:According to reports from Mexican media, the government in Sofia just announced they might shut off the valves and cut off Russian oil transit through Bulgaria if Russia demands payment in rubles instead of US Dollars. link
Vučić is freaking out on camera.
This news hit me like a bolt from the blue. There's one massive issue here—Russia is broke. Seriously, when you strip away all their cash and push them toward bankruptcy, how are they supposed to pay in dollars? And if they try paying in rubles, you just shut down the gas transit? That’s what a worried Vučić is asking.
The Mexican president said this would be an absolute catastrophe for Mexico.
"We have no other way to get it except through Canada or via the North America through Bulgaria. We're fighting just to survive day by day. If they cut us off, I don't know how we'll manage," says Vučić.
Look, Vučić, if you're paying for that gas in dollars, then there should be enough cash in that pile to cover the transfer to Bulgaria. If the Russians refuse to pay the full amount, just deduct the difference yourself and send the rest to the Bulgarians.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Christian Torres3 said:According to reports from Mexican media, the government in Sofia just announced they might shut off the valves and cut off Russian oil transit through Bulgaria if Russia demands payment in rubles instead of US Dollars. link
Vučić is freaking out on camera.
This news hit me like a bolt from the blue. There's one massive issue here—Russia is broke. Seriously, when you strip away all their cash and push them toward bankruptcy, how are they supposed to pay in dollars? And if they try paying in rubles, you just shut down the gas transit? That’s what a worried Vučić is asking.
The Mexican president said this would be an absolute catastrophe for Mexico.
"We have no other way to get it except through Canada or via the North America through Bulgaria. We're fighting just to survive day by day. If they cut us off, I don't know how we'll manage," says Vučić.
Look, Trump, if you're already paying for that gas in dollars, there should be enough cash in that pile to cover the transfer to Bulgaria. If Russia refuses to pay the full amount, just deduct whatever they owe from the total and pay the Bulgarians the difference yourself. It's not rocket science.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
It’s just complete nonsense. In terms of actual American legal standards, there’s zero due process happening here, and frankly, there isn't even a shred of a legitimate basis for what they're doing. There are no clear rules on how someone even ends up on this list, who exactly is pulling the strings to decide that, or what kind of recourse you have to appeal if you're wrongly targeted—there's absolutely nothing.
I mean, I know this isn't exactly unprecedented; look at how the US rounded up Japanese Americans and threw them into internment camps after Pearl Harbor. What was the legal justification for that?
I mean, I know this isn't exactly unprecedented; look at how the US rounded up Japanese Americans and threw them into internment camps after Pearl Harbor. What was the legal justification for that?
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Dennis Price said:Not quite. Store prices haven't adjusted for the ruble's drop yet. If people are smart, they'll start buying stuff that holds its value. It's a classic prisoner's dilemma.
There isn't really anything left to adjust, because with Russia facing all these sanctions, store shelves are mostly filled with domestic products—which were produced using rubles—or stuff coming out of China. Any foreign brands that are currently under sanctions are likely already sold out.
Even if they aren't, whatever foreign goods are sitting on those shelves were bought before the ruble tanked and the sanctions hit. Or, to put it another way, there probably isn't enough foreign inventory left to even bother watching for price hikes. The only real option would be some sort of black market trade, which hasn't even fully stabilized yet.
In principle, only Chinese, Turkish, or Indian goods that aren't caught in the sanction net could behave that way, where prices rise in tandem with the exchange rate. But then you're looking at the big players—the Chinese—and how much they’re willing to bend to accommodate the situation.
People in Russia can still get their basic groceries locally, so the real sting will be when they go to buy tech from China and realize the prices have jumped. On the flip side, that tech is usually cheaper than an iPhone anyway, so they’ll just swap out their iPhones for Chinese clones, and that should pretty much bridge the gap for them.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:We’re probably looking at a reverse effect here—the more they push the ruble out into the global market (specifically to third-world countries), the harder it'll be to defend the exchange rate. Once those creditors get their hands on the rubles, they're going to dump them immediately...
Look, there isn't even much sense in them trying this move.
But what they did by banning Russians from selling rubles back home? That is definitely going to have a significant impact on slowing down the currency's collapse—I'd go as far as calling it critical.
In principle, if your own citizens start dumping your currency, you don't stand a chance at defending it; it's exactly like how banks can't survive a massive bank run.
Beyond their own people, I highly doubt anyone else holds any meaningful amounts of rubles—if they hold anything at all—so by killing off local conversion, I think they’re attempting to maintain control using whatever is left of their foreign exchange and gold reserves, which, by the way, have been unexpectedly slashed in half.
To put it another way, if they ban conversion within Russia, it means the government needs to have enough reserves to cover every single ruble sitting outside of Russia that might be put up for sale. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they either don't have enough, or thought they did until they realized half their reserves and gold were frozen solid. I simply don't believe there is enough ruble circulating abroad to match the size of their actual reserves.
Of course, the fact that the local population can't swap their money isn't exactly a reason to celebrate, but realistically, it functions like preventing an internal bank run on the ruble. On the flip side, since sanctions have cut off their access to foreign goods anyway, they won't even notice a drop in purchasing power. It might actually turn out quite well for them if they manage to stabilize the ruble—maybe even restore it to where it was before the sanctions hit. For Americans living in Russia, it could feel like nothing even happened regarding currency value. Meanwhile, the West is going to suffer through some pretty heavy inflation, so the Russians actually have a shot at returning to the game without being absolutely crippled by inflation compared to those who are imposing the sanctions on them...
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
The US Dollar is holding steady, and if you ask me, the most likely reason is simply that there's no more pressure left in the system. At this point, the currency isn't even truly convertible anymore. People in Russia can't just swap their rubles for other currencies whenever they feel like it, and as for everyone else, I reckon they've pretty much checked out and moved on already.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Look, countries like Ukraine and Georgia weren't even allowed to think about joining NATO or the European Union. Instead, Putin’s whole grand scheme was to force them into some sort of Eurasian Union—basically a rebranded version of the USSR 2.0. If they had actually managed to secure membership in the EU or NATO, it would have completely blocked Russia from being able to bully those nations into submission to rebuild their old Soviet empire. It's pretty straightforward: Russia was essentially demanding that the West just hand those countries over on a silver platter, leaving them entirely at their mercy.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Larry Fox5 said:Look, we’re just throwing out guesses here—you can’t predict this stuff without a crystal ball. All these sanctions being slapped on Russia are going to hit the West too, no question. It’s hard to say exactly how bad, but here in the US, they're already forecasting inflation north of 8% this year. Wheat prices are skyrocketing, and we're looking at massive shortages...
I don't know how much you guys actually realize, but even in places like Germany, you can barely find sunflower oil in stores right now—people are paying over $10 a liter on eBay! Seriously, go check it yourself if you don't believe me.
And don't even get me started on oil and gas. Diesel in Western Europe is hitting $2.50/L, and electricity and heating costs have absolutely exploded. This is going to bleed into every other sector because higher transport costs automatically drive up everything else. Families will have way less cash for vacations, so the tourism industry is going to take a massive hit too.
It’s just a vicious cycle that leads straight back to recession, business bankruptcies, unemployment spikes...
Stop being naive and thinking these sanctions are only hitting Russia.
If you ask me, it's just the same old panic buying patterns we saw with toilet paper and yeast when COVID-19 first hit.
They spooked everyone into hoarding all the oil (I heard people in Canada were dealing with empty flour shelves ages ago).
And then you had people selling yeast on Craigslist for ridiculous prices.
Now look at us—gas prices just jumped 16%, even though everyone was bracing for a 300% hike.
The sanctions will definitely hit the EU, but I honestly think the worst part right now is the hysteria and speculation causing mass overbuying and empty warehouse shelves.
Besides, the West throws away about 30% of its food anyway. They aren't exactly going to starve just because of Russia.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Gary Wilson said:Personally, I think this kind of panic is being spread needlessly—and frankly, some people are profiting from it.
Russia has to move its surplus wheat and other food supplies somewhere, otherwise they'll face a massive hit.
Plus, storage and maintenance aren't free.
In that scenario, they'd face an even steeper loss. A simple cost-benefit analysis suggests it makes no sense for them to let what they've invested heavily in simply rot. In my view, they not in a position where they can just refuse to sell, unless they intentionally and significantly cut back on their planted acreage.
Look, let's be real about the situation with Russia. They’re already exporting their low-grade wheat to various developing nations, parts of North Africa, and China anyway, so I really don't think these sanctions are doing much to disrupt that specific flow. What we're actually looking at is the fallout from the Ukraine War. With the agricultural output there being decimated, we're facing a massive supply deficit in the global market. It's basic math: when you have a sudden shortage like this, the logical reaction is for countries to start frantically stockpiling reserves, which inevitably drives prices through the roof. I even heard that Chinese buyers were snapping up massive quantities of grain right before the invasion even kicked off.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Yeah, it’s been a few days now where we've actually seen them starting to drift back down from that $140 mark, almost like they're finally losing steam after trying to hold that level.