Posts by hiddeneagle98

Matthew Young35 said:So, are you suggesting it isn't true that Ukrainians station their military in civilian buildings, and that this Amnesty International report is fake?
Fine, that’s possible. But I have my doubts.

You can station troops in civilian areas without putting regular people in the line of fire.

Think about a school, for instance—do kids attending classes near the front lines have to weave through tanks and howitzers that are actively shelling the enemy? It doesn't work like that.

quietviper0 said:There’s actually even more data available from that same CREA group over here: https://crea.shinyapps.io/russia_counter/
Looking at the graph titled "Russia's estimated revenues from fossil fuel exports," it doesn't exactly paint a bleak picture regarding their energy export revenue...

And honestly, I'm not entirely sure how many people truly grasp that figure of 80.5 billion dollars sent to Russia from the European Union during the war alone, or if they can even begin to wrap their heads around the actual context behind it...

Because the context is this: back in 2019 and 2021, the entire European Union paid Russia about 100 billion dollars for energy over the course of full years. Now, in just 5.5 months, we've already cleared 80 billion...
If you factor in the period leading up to the invasion, it becomes crystal clear that in just seven and a bit months, we've already surpassed what we used to pay them annually...
And that counter just keeps ticking upward, and it shows no sign of stopping...

It also wouldn't hurt to glance at the bottom of the page where they list all their updates—they've had to keep adding extra billions to that total multiple times—which makes you wonder if the current figure accounts for every single dollar being moved right now...

But in all seriousness, trying to perform a "deep dive" analysis on June's numbers compared to February or March probably isn't even worth much of a thought...

You have to take into account that this year, we are either filling or attempting to fill our reserves right now in the middle of summer to prep for the entire winter. Natural gas has been being bought up aggressively since the invasion just to make sure we don't freeze this winter. In previous years, they just bought it whenever they needed it.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Obviously, the gas is being paid for in dollars, not rubles.
Basically, the whole thing goes through Gazprombank—the foreign buyer drops dollars into a specific account, then the bank handles the exchange from dollars to rubles before moving those rubles over to Gazprom's account. At the end of the day, the Russians get their hands on the dollars, which is what they actually care about. The whole "pay in rubles" stunt is just a clever way for them to squeeze out as many dollars as possible.

Look, I know how the money moves, but even if I didn't, I’d still publicly troll them by claiming I have a pile of Rubles and insist on paying with them—just to point out that despite all their pompous blustering, the Russians don't actually want their own currency because it's essentially worthless trash.

If they really meant it, they'd let foreigners go out, buy up Rubles on the open market, and pay for the gas at the official Russian exchange rate, and then we could see how much fun they're actually having. But since that isn't an option, it proves the Ruble is garbage and the "official rate" is nothing more than an autistic fantasy. This whole demand to pay in Rubles is a total sham; in reality, they are practically begging you to pay in Euros.

gentlestag15 said:Honestly, anyone outside of Russia holding onto rubles can basically just set them on fire at this point
or try to find some way to funnel them back into Russia and blow through them just to get rid of that junk.

Honestly, you should just gather all that cash up and use it to pay for gas instead. And I mean using the official exchange rate set by the Russian government itself. It basically ends up being free money at that point. They were the ones insisting everything be paid in rubles and they were the ones setting the rate. So, there you go. Talk about a self-inflicted wound.

brightheron64 said:Do you honestly believe that much effort is worth it? A False flag involving Ukrainians killing their own people?

It’s roughly the same level of logic as if Americans had staged a scene to make it look like the Germans killed Goering instead of actually putting him on trial and hanging him like they should have (and did).

It’s just a lot of noise and a smoke screen that might last a couple of weeks before being swept away by the winds of war, because, unfortunately, there will likely be much more evil happening, and far worse than this...

Either the Ukrainians got word that they were being butchered alive just like the guy in this video and decided to cut their losses, or the Russians just slaughtered them because they couldn't be bothered to waste their precious, dwindling manpower on guarding prisoners... or maybe they had already massacred them and this is just a way to cover up the crime.

As far as I know, we saw stuff like this during our own wars too, where snipers would "shorten the misery" for their own side. Honestly, that’s probably the absolute worst thing that can happen to you in a war zone.

Right now, it's sitting below 13

Honestly, instead of bleeding themselves dry paying for overpriced gas, people should just take that extra cash and pre-pay for some coastal rentals from California to Florida during the off-season when those places are mostly empty anyway. Why not just shut the whole country down for a few months? Since the industrial sector is going to be paralyzed regardless, they might as well make it official. I’m thinking if they actually shuttered things, they could probably fund the gap through other means instead of hiking up energy and utility bills for every single person under the sun. Plus, it would keep all that capital circulating within the US and heading toward states that actually need the stimulus, rather than letting it all flow straight into the pockets of Russians...

Melissa Rivera5 said:The biggest excuse people use to dodge sanctions is basically saying, "it's not our fight," but I don't know... it's hard to claim that when Russia is out there hinting, "who knows what we have planned for you?" They're already making shady comments to neighbors about redrawing American borders, plus they're tossing around those nuclear threats. I guess I'd rather fight for the US and the European Union in Ukraine and deal with higher prices now than end up facing an AK-47 later.

That whole "it's not our war" line is completely missing the point.

The North America are basically just sitting there on high alert, waiting for NATO to fall apart. And let's be real, NATO was already shaky as it is; if they made one wrong call regarding Ukraine, that would be the end of them. The European Union is on wobbly legs too, so it's the same story there. And look,

besides, we aren't actually going off to *fight* a war or sending troops over there; we're just joining the sanctions of a bloc that we are a fundamental part of—a bloc that believes protecting itself is the best way to protect our own interests too.

And I'm telling you, given who our neighbors are—you've got places like Mexico, Canada, Mexico, maybe even Canada looking on—we have way more skin in the game when it comes to resisting Russia and their attempts to tear apart Euro-Atlantic integration than someone like Portugal or the Netherlands ever will.

gentlestag15 said:Don't forget about our domestic energy assets—we've already seen several new gas wells opened up in the Midwest this year.

Plus, ExxonMobil is gearing up to start construction on eight new gas platforms out in the Adriatic Sea.
https://hr.n1info.com/biznis/ina-ula...ernom-jadranu/

I mean, seriously, looking at these current prices... even the Dutch would probably start risking those structurally questionable houses in Amsterdam by reopening some dangerously unstable gas field just to make a buck.

Donna Wells2 said:Honestly, if someone can actually swallow this nonsense—let alone believe it—I have to wonder about their IQ. Are people really just that easily manipulated, swallowing every single thing they see put in front of them?

When they see how much of an edge Americans have in warfare technology, it’s easy for them to fall for the fantasy that they could just develop some kind of universal super-soldier tech too.

rowdyraven112 said:So, does that mean our plans to buy Algerian gas are dead in the water?
☕

BTW, I don't have the link, but people are saying iPhone prices in Russia have dropped back to February levels (if they aren't lying to me...). The ruble ate the dollar for breakfast.
On the flip side, the euro is tanking, and America is going down with it—except America won't be able to climb out of that hole after the new year. ☕

Why on earth are we giving these kinds of trolls any airtime at all?

Word on the street is they’re actually buying up cheap fuel for the power plants instead of just selling off the raw stuff to the European Union, which makes zero sense if you think about it.

rowdyraven112 said:Exactly. We’re glossing over a few key facts here. Back when Viktor Yanukovych was calling the shots in Ukraine, he was adamant about one thing: Ukraine wasn't joining any military alliance. His entire focus was on doing whatever it took to secure a spot in the European Union.
He signed a bilateral deal with Russia to lease the Port of Sevastopol through 2042, all while Ukraine gets a 30% discount on gas compared to market rates. Honestly? Sounds like a damn good deal to me. ☕

Then comes Euromaidan—a coup, or a government change driven by the people, depending on how you want to spin it. It’s all the same to me. ☕
Given the circumstances, Russia wasn't going to sit around waiting for things to unfold—just like Americans wouldn't have. Instead, they secured their access to the port of Sevastopol by occupying Crimea. Whether that was justified or not isn't my call to make. But once those contracts were tossed out the window due to a coup and the government being ousted against the people's will, gas prices skyrocketed wherever that specific company held a monopoly. Could Poroshenko have stopped it? Yes. Did he? No. End of story. Throw in Europe’s complete lack of interest in what's happening in Ukraine, combined with NATO's active role there, and you've got your answer.

Look, I’ve said it more than once: America could achieve incredibly efficient energy independence through renewables. So why haven't we done it yet? Because the tech is still too expensive right now. It's all about the bottom line, and frankly, the people in charge are just looking out for their own interests. $667 Pensions instead? $33 My electricity bill hit $300. Just like that.$133 Monthly. Oil and gas remain the cheapest energy sources out there, regardless of what the current market price says. Global economies are still fundamentally built on cheap energy solutions. You can see that just by listening to our business leaders; when they talk about what's driving the crisis, the very first thing they mention is how much electricity prices have spiked. $5000 na $13333.

One last thing. A bit off-topic. About 10 or 15 years ago on this forum, I used an Erwin Rommel avatar and got banned for promoting Nazism. Now? It seems things have changed. People are using avatars that look suspiciously like a swastika. But whatever. As long as they’re using the Z., it's fine. ☕

All that's missing is the idea that he gave up on the EU despite promising them everything and pivoting toward them. But he didn't get his mandate by promising the EU; he got it by doing the exact opposite. That’s just a plain fact, even if you're trying to ignore it.

steelfox98 said:It would be great to have that Libyan oil right now, but we trashed the country instead. Damn.
Well, it would be great to have oil from Venezuela, too, but we tried to pull off a bloody coup there just like we did in Ukraine—a failed attempt that only managed to rally about 1,000 people out of a population of 30 million. We tried to assassinate Maduro, and that flopped, too. We dabbled in some counter-terrorism, caught a few guys. Very democratic stuff.
No point talking much about Iran.
MBS, an American ally, has been ignoring Biden's calls for months. Now, after everything Sleepy said, he’s got to swallow his pride and go begging in Riyadh.
And then we act surprised when our dear savior Borrell whines at the G20 summit about how the world doesn't understand us.

The global battle of narratives is in full swing and, for now, we are not winning. As the EU, we have to engage further to refute Russian lies and war propaganda.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/g20-...ilateralism_en

After a month of lying about how the Russians intentionally throttled gas flow while dodging questions about that controversial turbine, they're suddenly sending it back from service.

If the base amount A starts out higher, it stays ahead forever. Doesn't matter how fast the other side grows. I saw this play out once with a hedge fund client back in Chicago—growth rates are just noise if you aren't starting from the right position. Simple math. Cold, hard reality.
This kind of twisted math—where they can't even distinguish between growth rates and actual totals—belongs in a picture frame. I've seen some nonsense in my time, but this? Truly unique.
Just look at where China stood compared to the West forty years ago versus where they are today. It’s staggering. As for why they're outpacing us, it comes down to their entire culture—not that anyone bothered to write enough about it back then. Sure, starting from nothing gave them a massive advantage, but let's be real: they're closing the gap fast.

[User Not Found] [User Name] says:
My humble take? Putin will just keep playing this balancing act—trying to squeeze enough revenue to stay afloat while constantly screwing over the EU. A third of the supply isn't enough to build up any real reserves, but it’s just enough to keep the EU hooked on gas. He'll keep making threats, trying to walk into winter with as much leverage as possible to jack up the prices. Seen it all before.
Germany's stance on Putin and Russia is a mess. Disappointing, really. If it were up to Annalena, she’d have cut off that Russian gas supply in a heartbeat. I remember seeing similar hesitation back when we dealt with energy shifts in the States—just endless stalling.

We’ve all sat here reading those dire warnings from German experts about how this would trigger a massive recession. Even Robert Habeck said as much. Since he's the Secretary of Commerce, he's coming from the same party line. Given her track record and everything she's said lately, it's hardly surprising they pushed her to the back burner these last few months.
Ninety-five percent of the chemical industry relies on gas. Everything else just hooks onto those derivatives. Some sectors depend on it directly, too. It’s all a mess. We're looking at a projected 5 million unemployed. Just another day in this economy.

I don't know what to tell you. Just more noise in an already loud room. It’s all just going in circles. [User Name] says:
Putin has been pulling the strings on European politicians for ages through those non-market gas price concessions. It’s the same old story. I remember seeing similar backroom deals during my time working in DC; once the energy supply is leveraged, the sovereignty vanishes. Pure cynicism.

It’s the same old story. It’s like letting Russia hand-pick their own Prime Minister. I've seen this movie before.

After he sells out his own country to benefit Russia and finishes his term, I'm sure Putin will have a cushy job waiting for him at Gazprom. Typical.

Therein lies the fundamental divide between the American free-market system—which the Russian mafia types love to trash—and that shady Russian "godfather" alternative. I've seen enough of these power plays to know how they work.

Putin can offer his resources however he pleases, but the EU—like any sovereign nation wanting to remain so—should be defending such practices on their own end.

Is it really Germany's fault for choosing the cheapest supplier, someone who kept them supplied with cheap gas for 20 years just to stay competitive?
It's hardly a coincidence that after prices hit the stratosphere, Germany—after 30 years—had a month where they actually imported more than they exported.

You made an inaccurate claim, so per the forum rules, it's on you to provide a link.
Besides, it isn't hard to verify how their population has increased over the last 10 years (excluding Crimea), whereas we recently had our census and saw how things truly stand.

I don't know if these statistics were coincidentally taken from the last 4 weeks, but Russia just slashed deliveries by 60% during that specific window due to turbine maintenance. So, the picture looks quite different.

Absolutely. Making a nation energy-dependent on a mafia-style Russia is nothing short of an unmitigated betrayal of national interests. Energy isn't just some line item on a budget; it’s a strategic cornerstone, and we're seeing the consequences of that failure play out right now. And the guy responsible for setting this up? He basically got a cushy job at ExxonMobil as a reward. They practically admit it themselves today, so you might as well go tell them they aren't to blame since they clearly don't care.

Germany is also to blame because they branded nuclear power as "dirty" while treating gas as some sort of clean energy savior.

And then, to top it all off, there's the fact that the EU advised everyone to buy on the spot market last year, leaving everyone without long-term contracts and totally at the mercy of market volatility right when war broke out.

It feels like someone orchestrated this entire mess because they were being paid off by Russia, one way or another. Everyone involved shares the blame here. The individual sitting on the board at ExxonMobil is arguably more corrupt than any disgraced politician from the old days. At least those guys didn't end up on a corporate board after their scandals.

What Russia did to Germany through the corruption of high-ranking officials is a disgrace among disgraces. Honestly, the British didn't fare much better with their nonsensical Brexit, which was fueled by fake news and trolls—another classic Russian maneuver. It's the same pattern everywhere; whether it's local conglomerates getting gutted or foreign powers messing with the books, they try to exert influence in every country so they can literally threaten a government by destabilizing it.

It’s like Germans having to scramble onto some shady black market just to grab a massive pile of rubles at a ridiculous 150-to-1 exchange rate against the euro, only to then turn around and pay for gas using whatever official Russian rate they decide to set that day.

Or, you know, we could just happily pay for all the gas in rubles, since apparently, we can just pick them up from your citizens or whoever else happens to be selling them on the street.

Amy Parker10 said:The idea that NATO is some kind of threat to Russia is complete nonsense. It’s nothing more than a cheap soundbite designed to give Russians and Russophiles an excuse to justify the atrocities they're committing in Ukraine.

The reality is much simpler: the Russian Federation just can't stomach seeing former USSR members gain independence, thrive economically through cooperation with the EU, and pivot toward parliamentary democracy.
Putin plays well only with submissive autocrats and compliant nations that are hungry for cheap energy.
If a group of puppets following every Russian whim were in power in Ukraine, we wouldn't be seeing this war.
But let's not kid ourselves... the EU and the USA have essentially been in conflict with Russia since Putin took power (and really, since the end of World War II, with that brief pause during the collapse of the USSR). For the most part, it's been a quiet struggle where certain players were paid off to undermine the EU and NATO—think of all those green activists who fought nuclear energy only to leave the country tethered to Russian gas. We can't deny it worked quite well for him; he pivoted Germany toward Russia, bought off Viktor Orbán, and certainly shook things up in the US with Trump...

They especially can't stand seeing the surrounding nations secure their own gas fields and energy infrastructure. Look at how Ukraine has uncovered gas reserves that rival Norway's, and they've already got pipelines ready to supply Europe; that makes them a direct, lethal threat to the Russian gas monopoly, which effectively means a threat to the Russian state itself. Companies like Shell and BP have already moved in to plant their flags, right when those "separatists" were stirred up to clear the way for them.

Jose Clark2 said:If that were a true friend, they would have forced Zelenskyy to meet certain Russian demands so this invasion and war wouldn't have happened in the first place. By listening to "well-meaning" advice, they only lose territory. It remains to be seen if they can reclaim it militarily. Even if they succeed, the total cost in lives, property, and the economy will be devastating. Actually, it already is.

It was Putin who killed these people. Not Zelenskyy, not some advice from the West, not NATO sirens, and certainly not "ignoring Russia." It was Putin.

Go tell Putin how he could have saved those lives.

Don't sit there trying to explain to the victims that they should have just handled Putin better to save themselves.

Jose Clark2 said:The comparison falls short. No one is blaming Ukraine for its defense; rather, the criticism is aimed at the supporters—the West—who provide just enough weaponry to prolong the conflict indefinitely, knowing full well that Russia won't back down. It essentially extends the duration of the struggle. The real question is: what price are Ukraine's allies willing to pay to save her, or are they simply fighting a proxy war on the backs of Ukrainians? Where does it end, and what is the true measure of balance?

They’re basically rationing it just enough so that Russ doesn't lose his nerve and decides to start throwing tactical nukes around. Haven't you noticed how much they've been threatening to do that?

So, the West is walking this fine line where they try not to hand the Ukrainians anything powerful enough to just end the war on their own, opting instead to drip-feed them supplies bit by bit.
Because if they were to do that, in the broadest sense of the word, Russia would just play their "game changer" card and deploy those tactical nukes.

That’s really the logic behind the current strategy. The Ukrainians have to win this through sheer grit and hard work; they have to earn it. It has to look like their own resistance and their own victory. If the West just handed them advanced high-tech weapons on a silver platter, it would essentially force the West into a direct combat role in the war.

That's the real backstory here. This approach inevitably leads to a war of attrition, but let me be clear: this exhaustion isn't something the West is actually rooting for. I think everyone wants this to wrap up as fast as possible because the world is spiraling further into chaos every single day. But there just isn't a way around it...

The West can't leave these people hanging, but they also can't provide enough help to basically win the war for Ukraine.

Jose Clark2 said:It’s better for everyone if they sit down at the negotiating table. Western sponsors don't see any issue with draining Russia dry; they don't care if all of Ukraine burns if necessary. If they manage to mobilize a million soldiers and reclaim the south, they'll likely push toward Crimea since negotiations won't be on their minds. If nobody stops them, we're looking at a nuclear scenario.

Look, whatever happens, happens, but I refuse to believe that these mafia thugs threatening us with nukes are actually going to get everything they want.

The people who live in fear, sucking up to Putin's ego and trying to pressure everyone else into doing the same, are nothing more than cowards.

urbanotter said:And what exactly is the core of the issue?
Those energy assets are under Russian ownership, which means they'll sell them off to whoever they please, at whatever price they decide fits their agenda.
The people across Europe are starting to make quite a lot of noise lately, shouting from the rooftops and threatening to cut off all imports of Russian gas and oil entirely. It feels like we're watching this massive, collective outcry build up in real time.
It feels like no matter what happens, the narrative shifts just to keep the criticism going. Even now that Russia has supposedly "delivered on what was asked," people are still finding reasons to complain, claiming that Russia is somehow blackmailing us instead. It’s one of those situations where the goalposts seem to move the moment you actually reach them.
I wouldn't go so far as to say I have a personal vendetta, but you have to look at the reality of the situation: that "old man" in the White House essentially acts as the owner of those energy resources. When he made the call that payments had to be settled in rubles, he wasn't just making a suggestion; he was setting a hard line. It reminded me of a time back when my old boss used to change the terms of our contracts overnight without any warning—you either played by his specific rules or you were left standing empty-handed. In this case, it was much more high-stakes. Those who refused to follow his lead and pay in rubles simply didn't get their energy shipments. He made it very clear that if you wanted the fuel, you had to accept his terms, plain and simple.
Those who were rooting for paying their energy bills in rubles ended up getting exactly what they asked for.

At the end of the day, what exactly defines a market price? To me, it’s simply the value I decide to set for my own goods, and then I choose exactly who I want to sell them to. It really comes down to that personal agency—deciding the worth of your own work and picking your own customers.
If I decide to walk away from a deal, those folks are going to have to find someone else to source from—and they'll be doing it at whatever price that next guy decides to set. It reminds me of a situation I dealt with back when I was working in logistics; there was this one supplier who thought they held all the cards, but once we realized we weren't playing by their rules anymore, the market shifted overnight and they were the ones left scrambling. At the end of the day, you can't force a partnership if the terms aren't right, and if they miss out on my supply, they’re essentially handing over their leverage to the next bidder.

I went ahead and included that link to the World Bank page for you, which contains all the data from 2021.
I’m really not looking to base my perspective on some questionable data pulled from a Wikipedia entry back in 2017 that you've decided to cling to.

Here is the link to the World Bank site; I can see those figures you were talking about right here.

I was spending some time browsing through the latest datasets on the World Bank website earlier today, specifically looking at various global indicators, and I found myself falling down a bit of a rabbit hole. It’s one of those things where you go in looking for one specific data point—perhaps something regarding GDP per capita or inflation trends—and before you know it, you’re two hours deep into comparative development metrics and socio-economic shifts across different continents. There is something quietly meditative about staring at these massive, organized spreadsheets. I remember back when I was studying economics in college, I used to spend entire afternoons just trying to wrap my head around how these macro trends actually translated to the lives of everyday people in places like rural Alabama versus downtown Chicago. Looking at this link now, it brings back that same sense of curiosity. It’s easy to get lost in the sheer scale of the information provided, but if you take the time to parse through it, you start to see the underlying stories of how the world is changing. It really makes you stop and think about the momentum of global progress.

Putin has been pulling the strings on European politicians for a long time through these non-market concessions on gas pricing.

It is honestly akin to letting the Russians install their own Prime Minister in your government.

Once that politician finishes betraying his own country for the sake of Russia and his term ends, Putin just hands him a cushy job at ExxonMobil.

And right there, you see the fundamental difference between the American rule-of-law market system (which the Russian mafia types call a hegemony) and the Russian "crony" alternative.

Putin can offer his resources however he sees fit, but the EU—just like any sovereign nation that actually wants to remain sovereign—should be defending itself against that kind of practice from their side.