Hey, I was just looking at the betting lines and noticed there’s some decent value on the spread over here, though the local sportsbooks aren't offering much at all, but since a +7.5 line at @1.95 over at the main site works out to basically the same thing as a 9.5 spread at @1.7... it really ends up being about 1.61 which puts us right back where we started... 😁
I’m leaning towards taking the Atlanta Hawks +7.5 on this one...
With Horford out for the rest of the season, things are looking pretty shaky for the Atlanta Hawks, and there's a real chance we won't see Williams on the court again either, especially since they're dealing with that back-to-back schedule... I honestly don't see them covering this spread unless Vlad Raduljica suddenly decides to catch fire and drop ten three-pointers on them... 🤷 I’ve never really felt confident betting on the Hawks when they’re sitting as favorites like this, and honestly, it feels even riskier now... they’ve struggled to pull away from New York a few times this season, often just hanging around within five or seven points, and they even ended up in overtime against the Bobcats during their last trip out there... if I’m being totally honest, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Bobcats walked away with a win tonight, especially since they’ve had two full days to rest and prepare, and after dropping four straight, they are definitely going to play with a massive chip on their shoulder... they always seem to hold their own against Atlanta, too, keeping their last three road games against them within a five-point margin... personally, I think +7.5 is way too much cushion for a shorthanded Hawks squad in a game where we're likely looking at a high-scoring shootout of around 180 points... Horford is going to be such a huge, irreplaceable factor for them, either tonight or at some point later this season... once you take him out of the equation, the rest of the roster just lacks that necessary grit and shooting consistency that you need to close out games...
Mavericks -6 The Mavericks are sitting at 0-3 right now, so I really feel like it's about time they snagged their first win, especially since they've had three full days to prep for this matchup... On the other side, the Pistons are struggling quite a bit in the league, and it looks like Stuckey might be missing again tonight too, which doesn't help since they're coming off four heavy losses in a row and I just don't see them turning things around overnight because there simply isn't enough depth there, plus they played last night and couldn't even crack 70 points against the Bulls. The Mavericks definitely have their own issues to iron out since they haven't quite found their rhythm yet, but I'm expecting them to come out swinging for that away win...
Philadelphia -9 The Kings have responded pretty well following their coaching change, though they still need to prove they can actually produce anything once they step outside their home arena... They're currently at 0-3 after dropping three tough games against Denver, Portland, and Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is on fire right now with five straight wins, and even though they're playing on a back-to-back, their rotation is managed well enough that I don't see it being much of an issue, especially since Brand and Hawes struggled with foul trouble yesterday and didn't get to play much... I also think taking the team under on the Kings is a solid bet here, given that 94.5 is the margin, which is significant considering how Philly held Detroit to 73, Toronto to 62, and Indiana to 86 in their last three home games. Since they're on a back-to-back, I doubt they'll try to push a crazy pace, so I imagine they'll land somewhere around the 100-point mark again, maybe leaving the Kings with something like 85-90...
Ronald Chase44 said:That isn't quite right, because the fact that the season is shorter actually provides more incentive for teams to calculate their moves, since you can now make it into the playoffs with significantly fewer wins, which naturally opens up opportunities for resting players or giving them less playing time. I didn't specifically mention the superstars earlier, but at least this way you know during the regular season when guys are resting or playing hard, because the threshold for entering the playoffs is higher and there's less strategic maneuvering involved, whereas with a lower threshold like this, anything could happen...
You say it's not true, yet you end up saying pretty much the same thing I did. I also mentioned that there will be more tactical management regarding minutes, though I actually see that as a positive factor since it's something a betting shop simply cannot factor into their margins. It feels to me like the main issue is that everyone is way too focused on player overs. At least that's my impression, seeing how maybe 80% of the bets people place on player totals are overs, if you just look at stormyseal9's post above nhf stormyseal9. Now, I can't possibly predict whether someone is going to shoot 3/20 or 15/20 tonight, but perhaps I can predict if they'll take 20 shots instead of 10, or if they'll log 35+ minutes instead of 25, and that's where you find an actual edge, which is something you really need when you're facing those 1.85 odds at a local sportsbook
*I forgot to address the part about needing fewer wins for the playoffs... that's not really accurate, actually, because it's going to be tougher now since things will be tighter, given that fewer games mean every single matchup carries much more weight...
I mean, isn't it actually better if there's some variety rather than a player being stuck on a line of 20.5 and hitting exactly 20 one night and 22 the next, because how on earth are you supposed to bet on that kind of consistency😕? It’s honestly because of those fluctuations and the constant guesswork regarding minutes played and everything else that it could potentially work, though you really have to catch that perfect momentum at just the right time—not that I’m saying I know how to do that since I don't really bet on those specific lines myself, but it has definitely piqued my interest this season...
but then again, trying to pile four different superstar overs into a single parlay just because they happen to be in good form isn't going to make anyone rich, and I can see that most people seem to approach their betting that way🤷
Chicago is definitely a tough place to play, but I just couldn't bring myself to take such a massive handicap on an over/under set at 176-177 points... It’s a good sign that they dropped their last one, though, because hopefully that means they'll come out playing a bit more aggressive, but since this is the first game of a brutal back-to-back-to-back stretch, I can see the fourth quarter turning into a situation where Chicago rolls out their third unit while Detroit just plays whoever happens to be heating up that night... if they can actually find someone like 😁 ...
They haven't gone under 95 points yet this season, which means they're sitting at a perfect 7-0 on the over, and looking back at last year, they dropped more than 100 in both home games against Indiana while most other teams stayed much lower... it's not like Indiana is some defensive juggernaut or anything, but their current stats seem totally unrealistic since they're technically sitting as the third-best defense in the league allowing just 89.2 points per game. I say they're unrealistic because they've only played teams that consistently go under so far—mostly struggling squads like the Bobcats, Raptors, Cleveland, Detroit, and even Boston—so things should eventually balance out once the schedule levels off, hopefully starting with today's matchup, especially since Hibbert's availability for Indiana is up in the air, and if he doesn't suit up, they're going to have a massive headache protecting the rim...
I’m leaning toward Philadelphia on the spread, taking them over 96.5... I already touched on my reasoning, but they are just sitting right there needing only one or two more buckets, and since Philly plays such an aggressive offensive style while Detroit stays defensive, it would honestly surprise me if they kept the score under 100 or 110 points...
Boston -6 They’ve picked up four wins in a row now, and while they were playing against some lesser teams, they played well enough to get the job done. The big thing for me here is that they have five full days of rest coming up after this, so there’s absolutely no reason to hold anything back, plus having Allen back in the lineup is huge because he has been an absolute beast this season... Indiana tends to struggle when they’re on the road, occasionally pulling off an upset if their shots are falling, but it’s hit or miss, and Boston is easily one of the better teams in the league at defending the perimeter. They’ve kept opponents under 90 in their last few outings, and besides, Indiana has to play again tomorrow at home against the Charlotte Bobcats...
Minnesota -7
This is a roster loaded with talent, and in my eyes, they are easily the top four team in the league, though Jamison has been Cleveland's most productive player this year, and I don't see him making much of a dent against Love... Minnesota is a young squad, which means they can be inconsistent, but it also means they are always playing with high energy, which shows in their ATS record this year (5-1) and how they fight until the final whistle against tough opponents. They did stumble recently, losing to Dallas by 17, San Antonio by 10, splitting with Miami, and then having that slip-up against Memphis... I think a bounce-back is coming today against a mediocre Cleveland team that sits at 3-3 after mostly beating up on bottom-feeders...
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5
When a powerhouse like the Thunder drops two in a row, you know they’re looking for a reaction. It is incredibly difficult to beat them on their own floor, and after dropping one in Dallas and then one at home to Portland, facing Houston feels like it was tailor-made for a comeback... They’ve dealt with some injury issues too, with Sefolosha and Cook sitting out the last one, which might not seem like much, but it forced Harden into the starting five, which stripped away those crucial scoring options from the bench... With them returning, Harden should slide back into that sixth man role where he can really provide that spark when the starters need a boost... Houston isn't a bad team by any means, but they rely way too heavily on the three-point shot, and those kinds of teams are notoriously hard to beat on the road. They’re also dealing with some roster uncertainty; Lowry’s status is questionable and he hasn't been playing great this season, and they’re also missing C. Lee, who isn't a superstar but could certainly chip in 10 points... Houston recently got hammered by 30 against the LA Clippers, lost by 10 to the LA Lakers the night before, and now they’re heading into this matchup at a very low point... In their last three trips here, they've lost by about 15 to 20 points...
Portland ML
I’ll be honest, this line doesn't sit right with me; it smells like a sucker bet, but I decided to take it anyway... Portland has been the best team in the West so far. I have no idea where they'll go from here, but they've shown the most potential thus far. The only downside is they're on the second half of a back-to-back, but even that shouldn't justify them being this close to a spread against one of the worst teams in the West... I am a little uneasy that the odds aren't moving and the spread isn't shifting, which feels odd, so I'm keeping my stake relatively small...
The Philadelphia 76ers are definitely a squad you want to keep an eye on this season... Last year, they suffered through a brutal 3-13 start before finally finding their rhythm and finishing at 41-41, but honestly, that wasn't quite enough to make a dent against Miami in the playoffs. If you’ve been following any of the player or coach interviews lately, you might have noticed a recurring theme in almost every single one—they are absolutely desperate to get off to a strong start this year to make up for that rough beginning last season. It hasn't been easy for them, especially since opening the season with a West Coast road trip isn't exactly the most convenient schedule, but they managed to power through it and are heading back home after a solid 3-2 stretch. Those two losses came against a really sharp Portland team (-4) and a motivated Utah side (-3) playing their home opener after coming off two tough losses in Los Angeles and Denver, so they were clearly feeling highly energized... Tonight marks the home opener for Philly, and I have a feeling they aren't going to take things lightly. I’m actually a big fan of this roster because they possess what feels like the most productive bench in the NBA, led by a fantastic Brand and an Andrew Hawes who has truly exploded this year with 13 points and 11 rebounds per game. With a future All-Star like Jrue Holiday in the mix, the team feels incredibly well-balanced, featuring a rotation of about 7 or 8 players where anyone can step up and drop 20+ points on any given night. They are young, hungry, and coached exceptionally well, so since this is their first game on home soil, I suspect they’ll come out running early to build a lead... I’m not too worried about them cooling off late in the game either, mostly because of that deep bench production where they have three instant scorers in Paul Turner, Demps Young, and Williams, who could easily combine for 40 or 50 points against just about anyone, let alone Detroit...
As for Detroit, what can I even say about them? They seem to be stuck in some kind of transitional phase, sort of a rebuilding period, though everyone is left wondering what exactly they are building toward... Most of the pieces look mediocre at best, despite a couple of decent wins against Orlando (who was on the second half of a back-to-back and looked terrible that night) and Indiana, which tends to struggle on the road against pretty much anybody. This feels like a perfect situation to fade them, especially since Rod Stuckey might be out tonight—though I’d personally love to see him play if it helps move the line down a point—and Knight just doesn't seem ready yet to deliver a high-quality performance in a playoff-intensity matchup. In my opinion, Philadelphia takes this one with plenty of breathing room...
You might still be able to snag a decent line on the Atlanta Hawks if you move quickly, though I wouldn't wait too long because the heavy hitters have already started slashing the odds on them and everyone else...
It's a slight adjustment from yesterday's 17.5 line, but I still feel pretty good about it... Honestly, there isn't anyone else on the Spurs who can really step up and score like he can, especially since Tim Duncan is getting older and it's tough to expect big numbers when you're playing on the second night of a back-to-back... Richard Jefferson came off the bench yesterday, but if Parker doesn't drop around 20 or more, it’s going to be a real struggle for San Antonio to pull out wins... He finished with 21 yesterday, taking all those crucial shots in the final three or four minutes when the game was on the line, even though he struggled early on shooting just 3 of 11... He ended up using 16 field goal attempts and hitting 9 free throws... His matchup is against Jason Kidd, and while Kidd used to be an elite defender, he's pushing nearly 40 now and is also dealing with this back-to-back schedule, so I think this looks solid...
Mavericks +3.5
Both teams are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, but San Antonio seems much more exhausted after last night's grind, and their rotation is looking pretty thin... Dallas absolutely cruised past Phoenix yesterday, and nobody had to play heavy minutes, so they have a deep bench that should be able to handle the workload here... San Antonio doesn't have many options to work with; Jeff Green played great late in the game yesterday alongside Ford, but they aren't exactly the kind of players you can rely on for massive stats every single night... On the other hand, Dallas has Baron Davis, Vince Carter, and Lamar Odom finally finding their rhythm, which should make them just a bit too much for the Spurs to handle...
Why does it always take so long for them to post the NBA offers on Supersport, specifically the team totals and individual team point spreads? I mean, they usually have the lines for half the games or just a few matchups ready by 10:00 AM, but everything else stays pending for a really long time. Just yesterday, they didn't get the margins out for all the games until after 5:00 or 6:00 PM...
Does anyone actually know why it works this way?
It’s because our guys are basically just copying data from elsewhere, but they run into trouble when there's nothing new to copy...🤣 The reason they struggle to update quickly is that online sportsbooks are constantly waiting on the latest news, especially if there's a major storyline involved like tonight with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, for example... and since it's currently nighttime over in America, that kind of information doesn't start trickling in until much later in the day here...
Dallas was playing with such an aggressive interior game, but then Philadelphia clawed their way back from being down 14 to actually winning by 10, which was wild to see... Tony Parker really took control there, though how he did it is anyone's guess, since he was sitting at only 11 points with just two minutes left on the clock, then suddenly nails a fast break shot and Gregg Popovich loses his cool and starts yelling at him to slow things down, though honestly, it's not like he wasn't already struggling a bit 🤣 this guy sinks three shots, hits a couple free throws, and ends up with 21, and man, Denver is just rolling right now... when they get going, they are unstoppable 🙂
James Taylor3 said:I’m feeling pretty good about taking the Under on that one, under 182.5 points at @1.862...
The slate today looks absolutely fantastic to me, I think I might actually play about 5 or 6 different parlays... 🙂
I’m right there with you on that, I really am. It's the same deal with the betting lines, but honestly, I don't mind it too much, you know? I feel like I sleep a lot better when I only have two plays going instead of dealing with this constant headache... 🙂
As for the Boston game, everything you said sounds spot on, they could easily pull away by 30+ if things just go their way, but I usually try to steer clear of taking them against the spread because they're getting older, and once the rotations start and they get a big lead, things can get a little unpredictable... though now I'm stuck in a bit of a dilemma, since the line is sitting at 181, but I'm just wondering how it'll play out when Boston brings in their third unit late in the fourth quarter ... 😁I'm just not sure...
Plus, with the margin at 181, we're looking at a potentially gritty, defensive battle... especially when you look back at those last three results where they played Washington and Detroit, games they should have blown out, yet they ended up finishing within about 10 or 12 points, which makes this whole thing feel pretty tricky if you ask me... 🤷
James Taylor3 said:There are plenty of ways to say it, you just have to be a little creative...
Especially when you're talking about questionable plays or the betting odds... 😁
Instead of saying "big time," you could always go with something like a total blowout... 😁
Alright, I guess I can avoid those 2-3 mistakes, that's true... 😛
Luis Ariza isn't playing, Philly is at -5.5 online, and it looks like our guys are starting to drop too, though the German line is still holding at 1.8, while DraftKings opened up around 1.50...
It’s high time we actually back some favorites and live them up, and honestly, I’ve been looking forward to a matchup like this all week... Phoenix just isn't hitting their stride right now, and even when they were playing decent ball, they usually ended up dropping these games by double digits. Dallas is sitting at 2-4 after a pretty rough start, so there’s absolutely no room for complacency here... They managed to take down Oklahoma City in their last outing and had a nice day of rest to recover, plus having guys like Vince Carter, whoever else is on that rotation, and Baron Davis on the bench gives me enough confidence that we won't see a scary backdoor cover, which is my biggest worry since they have a massive Texas derby coming up tomorrow... hopefully, Phoenix doesn't fall apart in the final quarter and let the other side sneak in a +10 win at the buzzer... either way, if you ask me, this looks like a classic blowout scenario, and -8 feels like it might be about 3 or 4 points too low...
Denver -xy
The spread hasn't dropped yet, but whatever it ends up being... In the end, the shooters missed yesterday, Memphis covered -6.5 and everyone was hoping the Sacramento Kings might pull an upset to set things up for a comeback today, but man, those guys just got crushed by 20 points... so now they're sitting there with two blowout losses on the road, and they have to deal with a back-to-back in Denver, way up in the mountains, so I really think they're going to get rolled again big time...
Phila around 1.75-1.80
New Orleans is really struggling with the injury bug lately, and they've been playing without Ben Gordon so far, but now Luis Ariza is also dealing with something, making both of them questionable for tonight... Ben Gordon will probably suit up, but even if they both play, I still think these odds are solid... if they don't, the line will probably drop down to 1.35 on most sites😁... nobody seems to have posted it online yet, so I'll just hold steady at 1.80 while others are hovering around 1.75, so let's see how it unfolds...
I actually think there's something positive about the fact that the stats aren't really backing this up right now... It's a bit of a trap because he's sitting at 0-5 against this specific line this season, but I see it as an opportunity since he hasn't finished a season averaging under 16 PPG in his career, and seeing as he's currently sitting at 13.2, those numbers are bound to climb back up eventually... My main reasoning here is that with Manu Ginobili out for a while, someone is going to have to step up and absorb those extra 10 shots and 20 points he usually provides, plus they're facing the Golden State Warriors who haven't been looking particularly stout on the defensive end lately, and honestly, I remember a similar situation a few years back where Parker just exploded for massive games, like back in that 08/09 season when San Antonio was playing without Manu for large stretches and he ended up averaging 22 PPG, which was a huge jump from his usual 17 or 18... So, I feel like things could easily trend upward in the coming days now that Ginobili is out long-term, so I'm going to try and grab this before the trend fully kicks in and we see how it plays out