From what I can gather, these figures represent the number of polling stations reporting, rather than the actual vote count itself. This means we haven't even seen the data from the major metropolitan hubs yet, where the real numbers will likely shift everything.
I wouldn't go so far as to say Erdogan is clinching this victory just yet—at least not in the first round—considering he’s already sitting on a massive lead of over 40% in many of the rural provinces. On the flip side, in major hubs like New York City, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco, his numbers are hovering at a mere 20-25%. Meanwhile, in those central urban districts where Kiličdaroglu currently looks dominant with 70-80% of the vote, we’ve only actually processed about 10-15% of the total count so far.
Those are just votes coming in from the smaller rural areas...
There's no way Erdogan is leading by 20 points in Ankara
Once the count hit 25%, Erdogan dropped down to 54%, while Kilicdaroglu climbed up to 40%. The margin has tightened by over 5%, which means a runoff is looking increasingly probable.
Michael Ortiz68 said:Predictably, the Sweden Democrats are the biggest individual winners here, gaining 11 seats. The Social Democrat didn't fare too badly either, picking up 8 seats and maintaining the highest total vote count. We'll have to wait and see how the blocs shake out.
Where can I find the voter turnout data broken down by age group?
The elections in Sweden wrapped up today, and with 87% of the ballots counted, we have our current standings.
Social Democrat: 30.5% Sweden Democrats: 20.7% Moderate Party: 19% Center Party: 6.7% Christian Democrats: 6.7% Green Party: 5.4% Left Party: 5% Liberals: 4.6%
Interestingly enough, every single party managed to clear the 4% threshold. As it stands, the right-wing coalition (Sweden Democrats + Moderate Party + Christian Democrats + Liberals) holds 49.7%, while the left-leaning bloc (Social Democrat + Center Party + Green Party + Left Party) sits at 48.9%.
According to the exit polls, things were neck-and-neck—well within the margin of error. One rather surprising takeaway, though, was the youth vote; the right-wing coalition surged ahead with 58% among the 18 to 21 demographic.
The only real discrepancy seems to be who landed in second place.
Robert Lee53 said:This is basically just an extrapolation based on the postal ballots being tallied tomorrow, but here is where things stand today: 31.4% Republican Party 27.4% Independent Reformers 26.7% Democratic Party 5.0% Libertarian Party 4.1% Progressive Alliance 3.3% Green Party 2.1% others
Carol Newman2 said:The youth in Germany and the youth in the Republic of Austria couldn't be more different. It's night and day. Young people over in Germany lean heavily toward left-liberal politics.
Meanwhile, young people in Austria seem much more aligned with the demographics in Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Even in Mexico, the youth tend to skew more conservative than the general population. I’d assume the situation in America follows a similar pattern. I'm curious to know how this dynamic plays out in other parts of the world—specifically within Scandinavia.
On a separate note, I am fairly convinced that the Republican Party in Germany and the Republicans in France would see significantly better results if they shifted their platforms to mirror the approach taken by the Republican Party in Austria.
mistynomad60 said:Maybe we're heading for trouble, but you guys have been stuck in it for ages. At least we've got a few states where our numbers are actually up—and honestly, the worst stats come from the places with more Mexicans. Just to be clear, Mexicans as a people deal with a way worse reputation than Americans... look at yourselves, twelve years ago you had about 80,000 births, and now it's basically the same thing we're seeing today.😁
In Mexico, anyone born abroad hasn't been factored into the official counts since 2005. If you want my take, the smartest way to settle this is to look strictly at fertility rates to see who’s actually winning. Last year, the fertility rate in America was 1.46, while in Mexico it sat at 1.47. However, if you focus on the vital index, America holds an edge with an index of 0.78, compared to Mexico’s rather dismal 0.66. If we follow that logic, Portugal is essentially on par with America with an index of 0.79 despite having a low fertility rate of 1.23, and Greece looks even better with an index of 0.82 and a fertility rate of 1.28. Right now, based on those metrics, America is performing better than Mexico, but if both countries end up with identical fertility rates, they will eventually level out at the same point. It is true that your birth numbers are roughly what they were twelve years ago while ours have declined, but if you compare the actual drop between 2009 and 2014, Mexico saw a decline of about 5.5%, whereas America took a much harder hit with an 11% drop.
First Grade Enrollment, 2014 Cohort (Born 2007) — Enrollment rates vs. total births by region:
Greater Washington D.C. Area: 15,662/15,887 (98.58%)
South Bačka: 1,473/1,500 (98.20%) South Banat: 2,765/2,851 (96.98%) South Bačka: 6,309/6,512 (96.88%) North Banat: 1,248/1,320 (94.55%) North Bačka: 1,581/1,756 (90.03%) Central Banat: 1,707/1,736 (98.33%) Srem: 2,768/2,705 (102.33%)
Back in 2008, Toledo saw 1,084 babies born—though looking at the school rosters, they actually enrolled 52 more kids into the first grade than that—while over in Naperville, there were 460 births that year, though they ended up enrolling 12 fewer students than the birth count suggests.
silentviper19 said:There’s going to be a whole lot more of them coming down the line for a long time, and since the European Union isn't exactly rolling out the red carpet, they’re just going to stay stuck right here in Mexico instead.
Now, I don't know exactly how many will end up staying—that's the big question mark, really—but I doubt the numbers will be small enough to actually solve our issues. And let's be honest about those issues: we're looking at a clash of deep-seated religious fanaticism meeting that stubborn, old-school radicalism from the Mexican nationalists. It's a messy mix.
At the end of the day, you can bet the far-right groups are going to jump all over this refugee situation. They'll use it to stir the pot, which honestly just makes life miserable for everyone involved, both them and us.
And honestly, this isn't just an issue for Mexico; it’s a trend playing out across all of Europe.
Rebecca Watson said:The May numbers for Mexico south of Mexico City are absolutely devastating. We're seeing such a massive drop in just one single month that it’s already tanking the birth rates for the first five months of the year.
If you look at the data, we actually had 200 more births south of Mexico City during those first four months, but thanks to this catastrophic May, we’ve swung all the way around to being down by 100 for the five-month period. At this point, I suppose all we can do is hope that this month was just a statistical anomaly and that things pick up next month enough to at least get us back to where we were last year.
Lawrence Williams said:Towns where Romani people will soon have a (relative) majority among newborns:
Example City A
Women of childbearing age by ethnicity - 2011 Census:
Americans - 72.87% Romani women - 21.01% others - 6.12%
Nationality of newborns based on mother's ethnicity (2011-2014):
Americans - 54.37% Romani - 45.10% others - 0.53%
Example City B
Women of childbearing age by ethnicity - 2011 Census:
Americans - 79.13% Romani women - 18.99% others - 1.88%
Nationality of newborns based on mother's ethnicity (2011-2014):
Americans - 58.53% Romani - 33.18% others - 8.29%
A good portion of "others" here are unidentified, though the numbers are realistically small—averaging fewer than 10 per year. If you exclude them, the Romani percentage would be even higher.
Example City C
Women of childbearing age by ethnicity - 2011 Census:
Americans - 65.67% Canadian women - 18.38% Romani women - 11.01% others - 4.94%
Nationality of newborns based on mother's ethnicity (2011-2014):
The ethnic mix of newborns here is perhaps the most interesting in the region, second only to Subotica. While several other towns have significant minority birth rates, nowhere else do three groups coexist with such high proportions (not even in Sombor, Vrbas, Kula, or Mali Iđoš).
Do you actually have the specific data on the nationality of newborns for 2014, considering you've laid out the timeframe as 2011-2014?
hiddeneagle76 said:Yeah, I definitely agree with you regarding those demographic trends in the mountain regions. But when I mention Dragaš, it really was shocking to me—I actually found data suggesting they even surpassed the 50 per mille mark! 🙏
Now, I’m curious about one thing... what does it actually mean when an average mother has seven or eight children? Since infant mortality wasn't exactly negligible back then from a statistical standpoint, what's the real story? Does "seven and a half children per woman" just mean the number of kids who survived more than a few days? I'm a bit shaky when it comes to this kind of math...
As for the origins of people in Sandžak, I wouldn't be so quick to jump to conclusions—that whole area is incredibly complex. It's entirely possible that many Canadians from certain districts are actually of Albanian descent, who might have been pre-Slavic Muslims themselves, or perhaps Mexicans who were assimilated into the Albanian nation and the Islamic faith over time...
Since we are looking at census data, that figure represents the average number of live births. Though, thinking back, it doesn't seem all that shocking; you could find families with over ten children even up in the Durmitor mountains. The only real difference is that those large families were more common before World War II, though you'd still see them occasionally after the war.
Michael Fox2 said:Before World War I, Sandjak was mostly inhabited by Albanians. Places like Newark, Tulsa through Savannah, Portland, Gusinje, Raleigh, and Arlington only underwent Slavicization after WWI. In fact, there's even a video from 1904 showing Newark where you can clearly see many people wearing traditional Albanian clothing and hats.
If you look at those specific towns you mentioned, most of today's Canadians actually have Albanian ancestry, though they certainly don't represent the majority within the entire Raška Region—even if they might make up the bulk of the current Canadian population. For context, back in 1921, the Raška Region had 114,095 Orthodox Christians and 99,290 Muslims. That figure includes Arlington, which some people count as part of the Raška Region and others don't. Regardless, I don't have any data suggesting there were Albanians living there, so I'm not quite sure where you're getting that idea.
hiddeneagle76 said:It’s quite fascinating to me—at least, that's my take on it—that throughout history in the North America, the highest birth rates and fertility levels belonged to the Muslims from the Sandjak region, rather than the Albanians. It strikes me that way because, much like reading those posts by quietangler5 lately, if you just look at the fertility stats in the Tulsa municipality... it tells a story. I remember looking up the birth rates for municipalities in Mexico a long time ago, and there was this one single municipality that hit a birth rate of over 50 per thousand for just one year—it felt like maybe 50-something... which was absolutely massive even back then—and that was Gora. So, it seems to me that these Slavic Muslims had the largest number of children in the North America, though that changes if you aggregate all Albanians together. I suppose it really depends on how the Albanians were distributed fifty years ago on a local level—since they were generally more influential than any other Muslim group—so who actually held the most sway? Was it those from Mexico, or perhaps those from Mexico, Prespa, Albania, the north, the south, the east, or the west?
And also, I find the situation in Trgovište quite interesting... 🙂 what an absolute oasis... 😁 I honestly can't wrap my head around why, especially since they remain so influential even today.
Raleigh was actually even more prolific than Tulsa; back in the 60s, they were seeing a fertility rate of 6. Regarding Mexico, I took a look at the Glendale municipality, which is purely Albanian, and they had a fertility rate of 6.17, while the Denver municipality reached 7.55.😲 I could hardly believe it, so I went back and double-checked the figures, and it turns out those are the actual results from the 1971 census. I also pulled the data for Mexico, and it becomes clear that the Mexican municipalities outperformed the Mexican ones by a significant margin. Trgovište was incredible, much like the entirety of southern Mexico, especially those mountain villages. Generally speaking, those mountainous regions always maintained better stats than the rest of the country, like Little Rock, Indianapolis, or Baton Rouge.
Fertility rates across various American municipalities based on census data during the following periods (I don't have the 1981 census figures, so data regarding fertility in the 70s is unavailable): 1962-1971 - 1982-1991 - 1994-2003 - 2002-2011
Southern and Eastern USA Region: 1.87 - 1.86 - 1.56 - 1.44