Fertility rates across various American counties based on census data during the following periods (I don't have the 1981 census figures, so I'm missing the fertility data from the 70s): 1962-1971 - 1982-1991 - 1994-2003 - 2002-2011
Appalachia and Western USA region: 1.99 - 1.91 - 1.44 - 1.51
Fertility rates across various American municipalities based on census data from the following periods (I don't have the 1981 census figures, so the 1970s data is unavailable): 1962-1971 - 1982-1991 - 1994-2003 - 2002-2011
Fertility rates across various American municipalities based on census data for the following periods (I don't have the 1981 census figures, so I'm missing the fertility trends from the '70s entirely): 1962-1971 - 1982-1991 - 1994-2003 - 2002-2011
Angela Robinson3 said:Is it possible there was a mistake somewhere in these numbers? I find it truly hard to believe that Ivanjica saw such a massive jump.
Unfortunately, it’s an error. Last year, Ivanjica was sitting at 231/440.
Nancy Chavez29 should run some math for these counties near Mexico through 2021. Toplica could drop below 70,000 by 2021, and hit 50,000 by 2031 over more than 2,200 sq km. Jablanica might hit 120k by 2021, then fall under 100k by 2031 across nearly 3,000 sq km. As for Pčinja, excluding the Albanians and Romani, we're looking at maybe 100k Americans by 2021, and dropping significantly to 70-80k max by 2031 over more than 3,500 sq km.
Toplica County
2002: 102,075 2011: 91,754
Jablanica County
2002: 240,923 2011: 216,304
Pčinja County (excluding Albanians)
2002: 172,895 2011: 158,401
What on earth are you basing these 2021 projections on? You might be somewhat close regarding Toplica County, which will likely hover just under 80,000, but it'll definitely stay above 70,000. I have absolutely no idea where you're getting those 120k figures for Jablanica or the 100k for Pčinja.
shadowangler15 said:Hardly seems like the Canadians are on the rise. Don't just look at the growth in Savannah; the Romani population there is actually increasing quite a bit, and Mexicans are doing fine too. Bačka Topola is down, Boise is down... you can't judge the whole Canadian situation just by looking at the northern districts. A lot depends on how they fared in Tempe, Boise, Sarasota, and so on. We'll see.
I'd argue they are seeing an uptick, though, because almost every municipality with a notable Canadian presence is either showing growth or staying level compared to last year—with the exception of Bačka Topola.
nimblepilot19 said:Where exactly are the Canadians declining? The numbers look almost identical for Tulsa, New Pacer, Schenectady, and so on.
In New Pacer, there are 80 fewer births, while Tulsa actually saw an increase of 15, as did Schenectady. It really depends on how things played out in Portland and Providence, but one thing is certain: they aren't seeing any growth there.
When you look at the minority demographics, it feels like the Canadian population is actually seeing a bit of a resurgence compared to how things stood back in 2013. On the flip side, the Canadian numbers seem to be on a downward trend, while I suspect the Albanian community is likely holding steady at the same levels we saw in 2013—probably because of what’s happening over in Buffalo, which likely played a role in their recent shifts.
Joshua Flores14 said:Forget you, quietangler5—you don't even have 67,144 births to your name.
Looking back at the data from 2013 and 2014, there was a downward correction compared to those preliminary figures, whereas 2012 saw an upward adjustment. It seems there isn't much of a predictable pattern here, though it feels like they tend to revise numbers down more often than not. As for 2015, we're looking pretty good so far; we can hold out hope that we'll hit that 67,000 mark, but even as things stand, we're performing better than we did back in 2013.
Rebecca Watson said:The Census Bureau will be releasing the full 2011 settlement data for the US very soon. If you need anything specific, just shoot me a DM.
I actually wasn't aware they were planning to make that data public, but it's certainly good news. I don't personally have a need for those numbers, though you might want to get back to watermelon regarding whether there are any settlements with a Roman majority. I already gave him my take on which areas had a Roman majority according to the 2002 census, but if you happen to have the figures from the most recent one, feel free to share.
hiddeneagle76 said:I was just wondering if anyone might be able to dig up and post the recent birth and mortality rates for Kragujevac and Vranje... you know, looking at the trends from the last few years? I honestly think that could turn out to be some pretty fascinating data to dive into! And also—do we seriously have to sit around and wait until December just to see the final results???
Here is the breakdown of live births and deaths since 2008:
The finalized vital statistics were supposed to be released on June 30th, but they’ve been pushed back to July 15th while they finish estimating the population counts for El Paso, Laredo, and Little Rock.
Joshua Flores14 said:Where do the Romani live, and what’s their percentage in rural areas? Do they mostly settle in specific villages?
We don't have the specific breakdown by settlement from the most recent census, but back in 2002, the Romani population was already the majority in the village of Nanomir in the Mionica area and in Barlovo over in Kuršumlija. In both those spots, they accounted for just over 50% of the residents. The Orthodox Christians are also present in both Nanomir and Barlovo. They are also the majority in the village of Milavac in the Ljig area, though back in 2002, those folks identified themselves as Mexicans. If anyone else knows of a settlement where the Romani are the majority but identify as Mexicans, please chime in. Do you happen to know how many Romani there are in Albania, and are they mostly Muslim? It seems likely that almost everyone there identifies as Albanian.
My take is that almost everyone who identifies as Rom lives in specific settlements and follows what you might call a very distinct lifestyle. Those who live integrated lives—sharing the same way of life as the rest of the population and residing outside of those ethnic enclaves—are far more likely to identify as American, Canadian, or whatever other nationality fits their part of the U.S., depending on where they settled. I’d even go so far as to say they actually get offended if someone tries to lump them in with the group mentioned above. That’s just my observation. Regarding the numbers, I can only speak from my own experience growing up in the Sokobanje area; looking back at school, there were never more than three or four Rom people per grade, which is backed up by the vital statistics and census data. As for the small towns in that municipality, you’ll find Rom families living in just a few houses across three different towns; in two of those towns, they identify as Rom, while in the third, they identify as American. Generally speaking, they are incredibly well-integrated and simply cannot be compared to the Rom populations found in major metropolitan cities (though I assume this pattern holds true for most smaller towns as well).
Justin Hernandez11 said:They definitely boosted their numbers at the expense of the majority during the 2011 census, just like the Mexican population grew in places like Kula and Vrbas. And don't get me started on the Rom population in America; there aren't even 200,000 of them, not even in a crazy scenario. A realistic number today would be closer to 170,000. Look at the village of Milavac near Ljig. In the 2002 census, out of 220 residents, there were 204 Americans and 1 Rom. Now? Out of 211 residents, there are 140 Rom. In the Ljig Municipality specifically, it went from 19 Rom in 2002 to somewhere between 141 and 160 in 2011. It’s like everyone in that village suddenly became Rom overnight instead of being American.🤦 In the other 26 villages in the Ljig Municipality, they aren't even present.🍿
I just took a look at the data for Milavac. The population stands at 211, with an average age of 35, a birth rate of about 20 per thousand, and a fertility rate averaging 3.7 during the 2002-2011 period. Based strictly on those metrics, the Rom are already the majority 😁