Posts by Nathan Morris3

Richard Wilson4 said:Hold up. So you're saying the guy on the assembly line is afraid of "losing privileges," but someone living in a fancy neighborhood in Vienna isn't?

Well, I guess I’m just saying that wanting to hold onto privileges—whether you earned them or inherited them—is just part of being human. Rich or poor, it's pretty much the same. I suppose the difference is that migrants represent more competition for folks without degrees than for those who are highly educated. And yeah, maybe people should try to look at the bigger picture instead of just focusing on themselves. I think some people are just so caught up in their own survival that they don't really have the headspace to care about anything else.

coastalbison6 said:I see people are pushing back on this, but there’s actual data behind it.
VdB has been picking up almost all the major cities except for Eisenstadt, but that's his home turf.

The breakdown of Hofer vs. VdB voters by education:
High school: 55% - 45%
Trades: 67% - 33%
Some college: 58% - 42%
Bachelor's degree: 27% - 73%
University degree: 19% - 81%

The breakdown of Hofer vs. VdB voters by occupation:
Blue collar: 86% - 14%
Office workers: 40% - 60%
Government/Civil service: 45% - 55%
Self-employed: 53% - 47%
Retirees: 51% - 49%

I guess you could call it Hofer's home base. Right now, he’s leading in Eisenstadt by about 171 votes. It's not huge, but it is a small town. Maybe Mail-in voting changes things, though winning all the Federal capitals would probably just be symbolic at this point.

voter breakdown Hofer vs. VdB by education:
middle school: 55% - 45%
trades: 67% - 33%
high school diploma: 58% - 42%
college prep: 27% - 73%
university degree: 19% - 81%

voter breakdown Hofer vs. VdB by employment:
blue collar: 86% - 14%
office workers: 40% - 60%
government employees: 45% - 55%
self-employed: 53% - 47%
retirees: 51% - 49%

Yeah, those numbers are facts, I suppose. But I’d say it’s more about how people with less education or fewer resources might be more susceptible to fear-based messaging—whether that fear is real or not. So, I wouldn't necessarily say "smart people vote VdB," because there's probably a deeper layer to it than that.

It makes sense, I guess, that a factory worker who feels replaceable might worry about new competition coming in, regardless of where they're from. They're worried about their livelihood. It's easy to blame different cultures or religions, but really, it's often just a fear of losing what they have. Honestly, maybe the educated aren't that different from everyone else in that regard.

The fix would be investing in education and raising the floor for everyone, but I doubt all the political parties actually want to go that route.

Chris Chase5 said:From what I understand, if you want to actually have a say in the presidential or parliamentary elections—not the local ones, mind you—you have to be an Austrian citizen, which means giving up your current one.

My identity is American, and honestly, nothing about life here has impressed me enough to switch it up just to go around pretending to be someone else under a different name or chasing some perceived benefit. My nationality isn't for sale. I know plenty of people living in the States for decades who never even touch their original passports.

So, no, I didn't vote. If I did have the right to vote and held citizenship, I would have gone for Hofer. As an American, I'd lean toward him solely because of the immigration crisis and the general sense of instability. However, given those ties to radical Mexicans, I wouldn't have cast a ballot for him. But those are just "what ifs." I certainly wouldn't vote for that stubborn, lazy, grumpy, patronizing "green" candidate, no matter how much I might personally identify with rural values...

Yeah, you've gotta be an Austrian, I guess. And honestly, you really have to decide which country you actually want to "build your future" in.

Maybe I guess we should just look at the Quote.

My citizenship is American, and honestly, the United States hasn't done anything to make me want to change that. I'm not out here pretending to be some local or using a name like Mark Kovac just to snag extra perks. My identity isn't for sale, I guess. I know plenty of people who have lived in other places for decades without ever changing their passports, maybe.

Yeah, I get that too. Especially since joining the European Union, those practical reasons aren't really as big of a deal anymore. I guess it’s all fine by me—if someone cares more about politics back in the States, they should probably just stick with their American citizenship. But if they're more tied to what's happening here in the U.S., maybe they should just go for the American one. It seems okay to me. It just feels kind of funny seeing people who chose to stay American acting like they know everything about how things work in the U.S., or even people who have never even visited the States, trying to lecture us. I don't mean you, though; at least you actually live here.

So yeah, I didn't vote. If I actually had the right to vote and was an American, I guess I would've gone with Hofer. As an American, I’d probably lean toward him just because of the whole immigrant crisis and all that uncertainty. But since I have ties to those radical Mexicans, I wouldn't. Though, I suppose that's all just a big "if." I definitely wouldn't vote for that stubborn, lazy, grumpy, patronizing "green" guy, no matter how much I like the countryside.

Mexicans seem to pick their party based on how they feel about Mexico, which makes it look like Americans are just voting based on who the Mexicans support. I guess it’s actually a good thing that you can't have dual citizenship, since people have to decide which country matters more to them politically. With so many Mexicans living in Vienna holding Austrian citizenship, this whole Mexico tension pops up, even though it's basically irrelevant to the United States. I mean, imagine if dual citizenship were allowed—American elections would probably be decided by people's stances on the Nationalists versus the Partisans. 😁.

Carol Newman2 said:The VDB needs to pull in at least 61% of the mail-in ballot votes just to flip the script on this result. And honestly? I think they’ll actually pull it off.

We know how many Mail-in voting envelopes went out and how many were "canceled" yesterday, but I guess we don't really know what the actual turnout looks like yet. I haven't really dug into all those projections or what data they're using, honestly. Maybe we just need to hang tight for a bit, since nobody seems to have a clear answer right now. Whatever happens, I suppose the new president's main job should be trying to heal the divide in the country.

Mark Harris66 said:Everyone is just talking about how Hofer and VdB feel about migrants, but I’m actually curious about the rest of their platform—like, where do they stand on TTIP? I see that Hofer is dead set against TTIP (and honestly, same here), but what about VdB?

I guess they actually kind of agree on those things, at least when they talk:

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/...n-ttip-183795/

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/bp...-einer-Meinung

And, I mean, maybe the actual details of TTIP aren't even fully known yet.

Noah Sullivan said:I find it genuinely staggering to hear claims that there might be as many as 700,000 mail-in ballots out there.

By those numbers, you’d have to assume that the Austrian diaspora—expats, travelers, people living abroad...
they account for nearly 15% of the entire Austrian electorate?
Is that even remotely plausible?

What really strikes me is that I’ve never once encountered such a massive, statistically bizarre figure regarding Austria before.
(And believe me, I’ve spent plenty of time listening to debates about mail-in ballots during US presidential elections—though, in that context, the consensus was always that they were ultimately negligible.)
Essentially, it’s bizarre that this supposed 15% chunk of the Austrian voting population
has seemingly never made its presence felt until now—how does that work?

It seems to me we are looking at this:

I actually used my Mail-in ballot, along with plenty of folks I know—maybe around 25% of us. So, yeah, it seems totally possible and makes sense to me. Since you have until the end of December to decide if you'll show up for the first or second rounds (or even a runoff that might not happen), you really have to be sure you'll be around. You have to be certain you won't be traveling, or getting sick, or just deciding to go on a trip because the weather is nice... For anyone who really wants their vote counted, especially those who travel a lot, using a Mail-in ballot is such a great option. Plus, even if you request one, you can still show up at the polls and vote in person if you want, so there isn't really a downside. It works perfectly. I guess I'm just a little confused why there's that one-day delay, though; maybe it's just some technical thing.

Carol Newman2 said:It seems like nobody besides you lot actually lives in Austria. 😬

Well, I was just talking about the people on this forum, I guess.
Are you one of us voters too? Maybe we could run a formal poll to see who everyone really voted for.

So, I guess I have to ask—does anyone here (besides me and Sigmund) actually even have the right to vote in Austria? I cast my ballot for van der Bellen, though mine won't be counted until tomorrow. I don't think Sigmund voted for Hofer either, right? All this cheering from people living abroad or folks who aren't even citizens doesn't really change the outcome, I suppose. Anyone else here actually vote?

That page causing all the drama is just a placeholder, really. The actual results aren't out until tomorrow—you've heard that plenty of times already.

Brenda Ross47 said:Those 900,000 votes are from ethnic Austrians... funny how their diaspora gets to vote by mail and nobody complains... shows just how backward and narrow-minded our left wing really is...🤦

Brenda Ross47, sorry, but I guess you're just talking nonsense here. You don't really know much about Austria, or even how mail-in voting works, I suppose. It feels like you're just flooding the thread with little inaccuracies that aren't even worth replying to, and honestly, people just ignore your provocations because they see you're just looking for an argument. If you actually have something real to say, or maybe just a question about something you don't get—feel free.

Brenda Ross47 said:cities are full of uneducated immigrants🙄

and yeah, a massive divide between Austrians and everyone else.

I guess I don't know how things work in America, but over here in Austria, foreigners don't even get to vote.

neonhound18 said:Even PBS is reporting that the Hofer Campaign mostly picked up steam in the rural stretches and the outskirts of the major metros; they're also mentioning that roughly 90,000 mail-in ballots won't arrive until tomorrow, at which point the final count will finally start to take shape. 😉

Actually, I think it's 900K, not 90K.
Polls and all those projections don't really matter anymore since we have the actual numbers now.
So:
http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/

Norbert Hofer 1.937.863
Alexander van der Bellen 1.793.857

That means the gap is exactly 144,006 votes. They requested 900K of those Briefwahl ballots, so I guess nobody can say for sure how many people will actually send them in or if van den Bellen will make up that distance—it’s pretty hard to predict. Based on what I've seen before, maybe van den Bellen will catch up easily, but then again, we all know how those predictions usually turn out 😉.

casualtiger13 said:Exactly. But once you factor in those Mail-in voting projections, it looks like a dead heat at 50.0-50.0.

Not really, I guess. Those projections use pretty complex algorithms that definitely factor in past election trends. So far, it seems like about two-thirds have gone to the Democrats and Republicans, including the first round.

lonetrucker4 said:Look, what Chris Chase5 dropped is the official site.

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/

Donald Trump’s sitting at 51.9%, leading by about 144,000 votes.

But the exit poll says only 60.7%?

Meanwhile, PBS is reporting (http://orf.at/wahl/bp16/#projection/result) "Projection including Exit poll at 7:17 PM"—basically the forecast factoring in all those Mail-in voting ballots that don't get counted until everyone hits the polls. They're calling it a 50-50 split, give or take 0.7%.

So, you're telling me nothing's set in stone yet?

Every 6th or 7th vote seems to be mail-in voting. So, I guess those haven't even been counted yet. If maybe two-thirds of that goes to the VBB, they could easily close that 3.8% gap they're facing right now.
It’s probably going to be pretty intense. I guess most of those votes have been leaning heavily toward the Greens and the VBB so far, maybe.

So, it looks like women mostly don't vote for Donald Trump. I think I found a summary of it here:
I don't have access to that specific link, so I can't see what was written there. If you can paste the text here, I'll get right on rewriting it for you!

Back in 2014, the Freedom Party voted against increasing nursing care allowances. I think they also voted against needs-based welfare back in 2010. Then in 2015, the Freedom Party decided not to back that UN campaign against discrimination toward women. In 2014, the Freedom Party blocked a law for harsher penalties for underpaying employees, too. And in 2015, the Freedom Party voted against measures to reduce the gender pay gap at the international level. I guess in 2014 they were also against bridge money for construction workers and didn't approve limiting luxury pensions. They also voted against removing tax privileges for corporations in 2014. Back in 2011, the Freedom Party voted against the American Social Charter, which really stands up for things like better working conditions, the right to social security, and fair wages. Plus, the Freedom Party is against public support for women's shelters for abused women.

The Freedom Party is pretty patriarchal, I guess. They've blocked so many laws meant to close the gender pay gap, too. It’s easy to spot the people who don't fall for the fear-mongering, especially if they're educated, maybe.
And of course, if you live in the cities: from what I can see, all the major metros are going to be green (Austin is still blue, but maybe it'll turn green tomorrow too). On the other hand, everything rural is mostly blue. It's a pretty big divide between the cities and the countryside, I guess.

Scott Rodriguez19 said:Oh, please—do enlighten us! We are just dying to hear the profound insights from such an intellectual heavyweight. 🙂
http://www.heute.at/news/politik/Isl...t23660,1240928

I sort of assumed everyone on here knew how to use Google, honestly. It's written right there:

I guess the whole "melting pot" thing is just a way to say that a diverse society eventually blends into one big, unified culture. Maybe everything just sort of merges together into one smooth, harmonious mix.

I guess saying that Salzburg or Vienna are "melting points" is just total nonsense. It’s honestly on the same level as when Hofer made up that whole story about a terrorist attack happening right under his nose. 😁.

I saw this news about the political situation over in Austria. It seems like things are getting pretty complicated there, I guess. Maybe we'll see some changes soon?

I'm not really sure why you're pushing this on me. I think I already made my stance pretty clear—I'm all for banning anything that radicalizes people, whether it's preschools, churches, mosques, or even political parties. Radicalization already messed things up for Austria once, and I guess I'm just worried it could happen again. The real question is how you actually ban those sources of radicalism without making an even bigger mess of things. From what I can see, both radical religious groups and extreme nationalists are really ramping things up lately. Maybe they just need to be put in a cage together so they can fight it out, then maybe we could finally live in peace. 😉

Brenda Taylor13 said:Oh man, even in the massive metropolitan hubs—I'm talking places like New York City or Boston, which are basically huge multicultural melting pots—the results were wild. Take New York City, for instance, where Democrats have basically held the reins for decades, or Boston, which is such a massive international student hub... even there, the vote was almost a dead heat. Well, I mean, that actually says a whole lot if you think about it.

Vienna and Salzburg are "true multicultural melting pots"???
And Salzburg is one of the biggest international student hubs?
In the three largest cities in Austria—even the ones with top-tier universities and the highest concentration of foreigners and intellectuals—VdB actually beat Hofer.

I guess all three of those points you made are just wrong. I wonder what the goal is with spreading this stuff? Are you trying to show you don't really get what a "melting pot" is, or maybe just that you don't know much about Austria?

Walter Long7 said:I’m reading reports about some shooting at a concert, but from what I can gather, it had nothing to do with immigrants—it looks like some guy was just getting into a scrap with a girl... If this were actually an attack by outsiders, you'd probably see some polls popping up telling you exactly how it’s all supposed to end.

Yeah, three dead, alcohol, a fight, weapons... those biker festivals aren't exactly the kind of places where people from Syria or Afghanistan are hanging out.

I guess people who blame immigrants for everything made up their minds a long time ago, just like those who look for causes elsewhere. Even these folks probably just look at different criteria, maybe just a dislike for one candidate over another. Like, I think for many Black voters, voting for the Green Party is just unthinkable, regardless of how they feel about immigration or anti-feminist policies or whatever else.

By the way, I think talking privately via DM is much nicer when you disagree with someone. It feels more polite and constructive, without all those threatening messages.

Mark Harris66 said:Nathan Morris3, you’re calling everyone else out for generalizing, yet you fell right into the same trap when you were talking about how "patriarchal" Herzegovina is. Honestly, Herzegovina today and how it used to be are two completely different worlds—something you’d probably realize if you’d actually spent any time visiting Herc...
So, yeah, there’s your lesson in generalization.

I spent some time in Norway, and honestly, compared to the situation for women there, Austria might as well be Saudi Arabia. I guess I don't really agree with comparing America (or Canada) to Norway, especially if you step outside the big cities—rural life in places like Austria or the North America tends to be pretty patriarchal. Sure, maybe Arab Society has different work habits than Chinese or Westerners. And yeah, the North American attitude toward women can be very traditional. It’s similar to how things are in many Churches or Islamic Communities...
Do I think we should just assume every North American or believer is a patriarchal abuser and treat them differently, even if they happen to be the nicest person ever? I don't think so, I guess. That would just be generalizing.

If my last point sounded like I was generalizing, then I'm sorry, and I hope this clarifies where I'm coming from.

Hey guys, I’ve put together over 350 posts now. Looking at the clock, I guess it’s taken about 20 hours or so, which feels like way too much. I didn't really expect to broaden my horizons or anything, but since I've started getting these hateful, threatening messages from random anonymous accounts, I'm starting to think that writing in such one-dimensional circles is just counterproductive. So, I think I'll step back from these debates. If things aren't constructive and people are making threats, there's just no motivation left. Plus, I feel like I could spend my time better than arguing with folks who try to lecture us from places like Germany or send all sorts of hateful ideas and threats over to the US. Personally, life in the States is good; I really value the Constitution, the laws, and human rights, and I'll definitely fight to protect them. It's just that this kind of forum activism doesn't seem like the most effective way to go about it. If anyone ever needs some specific advice or an opinion, I’d be happy to help or answer a question.

Chris Chase5 said:There's a massive gap in how we're looking at this—someone who commits an assault on a child deserves to be sent straight back to Iraq. That goes for all other perpetrators too, and anyone else like them. My tolerance ends right there because they have no right to destroy other people's lives, especially when they already show zero respect for someone else's body, emotions, or very existence. Austrians paid their taxes and deserve to stay in prison, just like Iraqis or Afghans should face justice in their own countries. I don't want my tax dollars going toward providing housing, food, and cable TV to rapists who shouldn't have been here in the first place... only for them to get released again and continue spreading their version of "cultural diversity."

I guess you might have misread where we differ. We both agree we don't want them around us, but I suppose my point is that every criminal deserves the exact same treatment, regardless of what they believe. That’s how it's laid out in the Constitution, and I'm actually glad it is. It means the system might be slow or even a bit inefficient, but it doesn't discriminate based on race or religion. Generations fought to establish these human rights standards, and maybe we could lose them overnight if we aren't careful. I guess the real difference is that I don't mind paying the taxes that fund those rights, whereas you do.

Chris Chase5 said:I agree that women living in "traditional" Muslim—or let's just say patriarchal—societies face significant limitations regarding basic human freedoms, and the headscarf isn't even the biggest issue. However, I’m also noticing shifts happening in Sweden, Germany, and Austria regarding how newcomers actually integrate. John Wayne made a really solid point comparing immigrants from various cultural backgrounds. The Chinese have flooded Europe just as much, yet you don't read nearly as much about the influx from the Arabic-speaking world.

It feels like you're relativizing the situation, and I assumed you were subtly defending the Muslim world based on that.

I've never called the police, nor have I ever been questioned by them. I work like a dog, 8 to 12 hours a day... if I were back in the States, I'd be doing the same, and I'm never afraid to speak my mind clearly and loudly. I'm not exactly thrilled with my current surroundings, but I'm here for my career, and I have a wonderful circle of people who make my life here truly great.

To be honest, equating a single deviant with systematic daily attacks on women is a bit irritating, sorry. It's just not the same thing.

The safety situation—especially for women—isn't what it was two years ago. In my view, every criminal should be deported back to their country of origin—whether it's those young rapists or identified attackers targeting women. Meanwhile, every migrant has to go through the exact same rigorous process I did: getting work permits, mastering German, and so on. I used to hang out with Austrians, and they were struggling with unemployment too; not everyone, but out of ten acquaintances, two were. The last one I met was an Itevac and a local from Vienna. What kind of toolkit can an Afghan man offer, who faints at the sight of pork and doesn't know a single sentence of German, when it comes to believing women are equal?

I'm not sure how long you've been living in Austria, but if you ever get the chance, maybe take a trip down to Zell am See. There's probably a huge concentration of Arabs there. Compared to Zell am See, the way people dress in Vienna is almost like a complete mismatch. To me, those folks come from a totally different culture and I don't feel like we have much in common. I worry they aren't great toward women, and visually, they definitely disrupt the local style, but it seems like locals won't let them leave. I don't think it's because they're embracing the culture, but more because it lines their pockets. I don't have a particularly glowing view of Arabs (especially from the Peninsula or the Emirates)—their views on democracy, human rights, women, work ethic, or slavery... well, as much as I can generalize, anyway. But judging an entire nation based on the specific selection you see in Vienna—and then selecting within that group—probably leads to a pretty skewed picture. Maybe since you've spent time in other Arab environments, we share similar views, but I still think generalizing that much is wrong, especially when using religion as the link. That's why I asked if you feel the same way about a fictional neighbor like Edin from Canada.

You're being relativistic, and I assumed you were secretly defending the Muslim world.

I'm just defending people who get attacked without having done anything wrong. It feels weird to call that "defending Muslims," but I don't mind; I'm just saying your logic might be a little off😉.