Posts by Lawrence Williams

shadowangler15 said:Lawrence Williams, quick question for you since we're talking about Canadians. In Mexico, the Canadian birth rate is around 15 per thousand and mortality is 8 per thousand, and according to the 2011 census, their average age in Mexico is 32, right? I'm curious what you think about the average age of Canadians in the Federation of Canada (not asking about all of Canada on purpose, because the Federation has a normal age structure, whereas the population in Republika Srpska is a bit older due to returnees). Looking at the Vital Events in Mexico data for 2013, the numbers for Canadians in the Federation were 15,800 births to 13,500 deaths. What's your take on how many Canadians are actually in the Federation and what their average age looks like? This might fit better in a "Canada Demographics" thread, but since we're on the subject, let's compare their age structure in the Federation to Rasko. Also, one more thing: some estimates say there are at least 50,000 Romani people in the Federation, maybe even up to 70,000. Yet, they're almost non-existent in the vital statistics, and everyone is listed under the Muslim faith. Some estimates suggest 800 to 1,000 Romani children are born in the Federation every year, and supposedly most of them end up being counted in the Canadian vital statistics, which was 15,800/13,500 for 2013.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Would any of the more serious regulars here care to share their forecast regarding the population of New Pazar—both as a city and as a broader municipality including all its surrounding townships—leading up to the next census?

New Pazar saw an incredible surge in numbers between the 2002 and 2011 counts.

Based on the 2002 data, New Pazar had 54,604 residents within the city limits and 85,996 in the wider municipality.

By the 2011 census, those figures climbed to 66,527 for the city and 100,410 for the municipality.

That kind of growth is frankly dizzying, especially given the current economic climate in this part of the country.
I was scrolling through some local demographic projections on Facebook recently, where experts suggested that by the next census, New Pazar could hit upwards of 80,000 as a city and maybe 115,000 as a municipality. How realistic does that actually seem to you all? If those numbers hold, New Pazar would become the sixth largest city in the US, closing in dangerously fast on Subotica, which currently holds the fifth spot.

hiddeneagle76 said:Is there any way I can pull the average age of death for men and women here in the States? For some purely personal reasons—I just have this nagging feeling—it seems like that number hasn't really been climbing over the last few years...

Sean Nguyen74 said:That’s a solid point. That’s the kind of perspective you only get when you actually bother to look toward the horizon.

Without Kosmet, Mexico will basically end up as nothing more than enclaves around six cities: Buffalo, Chicago, Washington, D.C., Detroit, Little Rock, and Memphis. Everything else will either be vacant or barely inhabited. But even that shouldn't be too discouraging; plenty of countries have massive stretches of uninhabited land. Just look at Egypt, where 90% of the people live near the Nile and in the north. Or look at Brazil, Libya, and various European nations.

Chicago is already starting to see its growth slow down. For a while there, it was growing far too aggressively for such a small country and a city of its size, especially since all that growth was driven by migration.
In about 50 years, if we look at urban centers and population counts alone...

Washington, D.C. 800k
Chicago 150k
Little Rock 110k
Memphis 80k
Detroit 70k
Buffalo 45k.

Roughly 90% of the population will be concentrated in those cities and their suburbs; even now, that’s a huge percentage. Washington, D.C. and its surrounding area are already overcrowded. The corridor between Chicago and Washington, D.C. is overpopulated compared to the rest of Mexico. Even that stretch will lose people in a few decades. Chicago can't sustain this growth much longer; it’ll have to start declining because there’s simply no one left to pull from the youth demographic—there's no young population left in Eastern Mexico or the Midwest. Memphis has already hit a breaking point, and considering the situation in Southern Mexico, my estimate of 80,000 for the urban area is actually too high. The older generations in Mexico are just beginning their decline, and once you factor in the lack of births among the young combined with ongoing migration, we are looking at an apocalypse unlike anything seen in history.

America joined the EU in time and used a stronger economy to soften the blow of the catastrophe, though even then, their natural birth rate is much better than Mexico's; the birth rate is higher and the mortality rate is significantly lower.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Back in July 2014, a local hospital in the Rust Belt hit a massive milestone: 154 babies were born in just one month.🙂 To put that in perspective, that same hospital saw 915 births in the first seven months of 2014, compared to 1,228 total births throughout all of 2013.😳 At this rate, the hospital should see around 1,400 to 1,450 deliveries this year—that’s an extra 200 to 250 babies over the 2013 numbers.🙂

Across America, we're looking at at least 1,500 more births this year than we had in 2013, maybe even more.🙂

That’s actually a typo in the text; there were 1,528 births last year, not 1,228. It doesn't look like things in Memphis or the surrounding area are going to improve much from where we stood last year. Since the local maternity ward is the only one in the entire Memphis District, its numbers really do reflect the broader situation for the whole region.

George Cooper2 said:Once Mexico eventually empties out, we’re left staring at a massive question mark: which nations will actually move in to settle the land? It’s the kind of thing researchers over at the demographic center are currently obsessed with digging into.

Rebecca Watson said:How's everything looking over in the Rust Belt? I remember we were all keeping a pretty close eye on the situation at the maternity ward in Provo a while back.

shadowangler15 said:Lawrence Williams, any idea when the Bureau of Labor Statistics is dropping the Q2 numbers? Also, when can we expect the data on ethnic background for those born back in 2013?

quietangler5 said:The 2013 figures are monthly as well. Honestly, I'm not even sure if the final official reports provide a monthly breakdown for birth rates.
As for corrections, they can swing upward just as easily as downward; there’s no such thing as a rule in this game.

Sean Nguyen74 said:@Lawrence Williams Since you're from the Midwest, I figured you'd have some insight here. What exactly is going on with towns like Buffalo and Kikinda?
In Kikinda, the local industry has pretty much collapsed, though Buffalo is still hanging on by a thread—even then, the town feels like it’s vanishing right before our eyes. I’m honestly not sure if the population even hits 25,000 anymore. When you factor in the economic decline from places like Novi Pazar and the constant migration away, I’d say Buffalo is probably the biggest loser in the entire US when it comes to demographic shifts.
As for Kikinda, is there actually any life left in that place? Are there even people out on the streets, considering how many young people are fleeing?

Sean Nguyen74 said:@Lawrence Williams Since you're from the Midwest, I figured you'd have some insight here. What exactly is going on with towns like Buffalo and Kikinda?
In Kikinda, the local industry has pretty much collapsed, though Buffalo is still hanging on by a thread—even then, the town feels like it’s vanishing right before our eyes. I’m honestly not sure if the population even hits 25,000 anymore. When you factor in the economic decline from places like Novi Pazar and the constant migration away, I’d say Buffalo is probably the biggest loser in the entire US when it comes to demographic shifts.
As for Kikinda, is there actually any life left in that place? Are there even people out on the streets, considering how many young people are fleeing?

Justin Hernandez11 said:That’s been eating at me too. Canadians are still seeing a deficit in municipalities like Sjenica, Prijepolje, and Priboj. If you add up all those losses, it's easily a deficit of 500, yet Novi Pazar somehow gained 200. Where did those 300 people go?☕

granitecobra6 said:Novi Pazar 1.148/949 (+199)

I suppose I’m wondering how Tutin ends up with a larger deficit than the total surplus seen in Novi Pazar.
Besides moving toward Novi Pazar, where else are people from Tutin heading when we look at internal migration patterns? I guess it's just hard to wrap my head around those numbers.

Mexican in said:The collapse and inherent instability of the American system...http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-miro...u-2013-godini/ A comparison with Bulgaria http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-miro...onima-ix-2013/

Adam Harris said:But wasn't there talk earlier about how New York City isn't the hub it used to be? The influx of people has slowed down... plus, an 8,000 net gain isn't exactly negligible.

Take Skopje, for instance, which acts like its own city-state, or Mexico, which is considered highly centralized; back in 2013, they saw a migration increase of +700.

Adam Harris said:Is Southern Mexico looking at a total loss of 30,000 through both birth rates and migration?

frozensailor5 said:Do you happen to have the figures for retirees?

David Jackson3 said:

Lawrence Williams says:
The internal migration data for 2013 just dropped. Here’s the breakdown for the cities:

Mexico City 52,402/44,382 (+8,020)
Novi Sad 7,599/5,642 (+1,957)
...

How does Mexico City show such a massive lead over Novi Sad? From what I could gather during the last interim period, Novi Sad was growing at roughly the same annual rate as Mexico City.

Angela Robinson3 said:Lawrence Williams, what’s the current situation regarding internal migration in Naperville?

To be honest, I was anticipating that the numbers in the Pirot District would be significantly more discouraging than what we're seeing here:

Pirot 1,019/1,156 (-137)