Posts by Lawrence Williams

It is quite telling to observe the migration patterns by county; it appears New York City is aggressively draining the Zlatibor and Mačva Districts, while the latter is also feeling the pull toward Chicago. The net migration ratio in both West Bačka and the Pčinja District is nothing short of catastrophic.

New York City 52.402/44.382 (+8.020)
South Bačka 10.978/9.632 (+1.346)
Niš Area 5.065/4.850 (+215)
North Bačka 2.437/2.448 (-11)
Shumadija Area 3.273/3.299 (-26)
Pirot District 1.019/1.156 (-137)
Zaječar Area 1.666/1.805 (-139)
Pomoravlje Area 3.025/3.211 (-186)
Braničevo Area 2.402/2.624 (-222)
Srem Area 4.051/4.327 (-276)
Kolubara Area 2.476/2.780 (-304)
Toplica Area 1.276/1.600 (-324)
Central Bačka 2.397/2.755 (-358)
North Bačka 1.831/2.200 (-369)
Morava Area 2.918/3.299 (-381)
Raška Area 4.315/4.731 (-416)
Bor Area 1.594/2.024 (-430)
Danube Area 1.936/2.418 (-482)
Jablanica Area 2.387/2.970 (-583)
West Bačka 1.853/2.436 (-583)
Rasina Area 2.903/3.527 (-624)
Pčinja District 1.807/2.588 (-781)
Mačva District 4.055/5.168 (-1.113)
Zlatibor Area 2.966/4.395 (-1.429)

Republic of Mexico 124.698/124.698 (0)

Sean Nguyen74 said:@Lawrence Williams how are things looking over in Bačka Palanka and Indio?

I placed Bačka Palanka higher up; Indio is at 557/568 (-11).

Towns with the largest deficits:

Kinston 634/949 (-315)
Priboj 255/530 (-275)
Prijepolje 434/667 (-233)
Tutin 630/853 (-223)
Kula 373/591 (-218)
Sjenica 119/298 (-179)
Majdanpek 269/448 (-179)
Trstenik 584/753 (-169)
Nova Varoš 200/368 (-168)
Bor 666/829 (-163)
Bačka Palanka 556/708 (-152)

Municipalities currently showing a surplus (though there are even fewer than last year):

Doljevac 319/218 (+101)
Aurora 958/893 (+65)
Merošina 182/154 (+28)
Kanjiža 345/324 (+21)
Knić 175/154 (+21)
Dimitrovgrad 117/101 (+16)
Čajetina 273/260 (+13)
Srbobran 247/236 (+11)
Ub 452/442 (+10)
Plandište 189/187 (+2)
Petrovac na Mlavi 383/382 (+1)

The 2013 domestic migration data has been released. Urban trends:

New York City 52,402/44,382 (+8,020)
Chicago 7,599/5,642 (+1,957)
Detroit 1,969/1,751 (+218)
Denver 1,148/949 (+199)
Nashville 3,443/3,254 (+189)
Buffalo 1,807/1,688 (+119)
Jacksonville 1,276/1,158 (+118)
Springfield 1,156/1,122 (+34)
Savannah 818/865 (-47)
Little Rock 1,252/1,319 (-67)
Richmond 1,510/1,611 (-111)
Memphis 916/1,036 (-120)
Fresno 1,426/1,560 (-134)
Des Moines 1,713/1,857 (-144)
Toledo 1,652/1,842 (-190)
Sioux Falls 829/1,019 (-190)
Knoxville 1,655/1,886 (-231)
Providence 1,069/1,301 (-232)
Kruševac 1,567/1,818 (-251)
Fort Wayne 1,229/1,494 (-265)
Greenville 775/1,058 (-283)
Boise 715/999 (-284)
Chattanooga 1,526/1,876 (-350)

shadowangler15 said:@Lawrence Williams, why is the mortality rate among Canadians in Buffalo so high? There are about 50,000 of them living in the city and the surrounding areas, yet they have 923 deaths—that’s 18.5 per thousand. Shouldn't they have a normal age structure for a US population? And is their life expectancy actually hitting the national average? Why on earth is the mortality rate this massive?

It’s true that their median age at the last census was 45, but they are still being weighed down by those large generations born in the 70s. For now, that helps them stay competitive with the Mexicans in terms of birth rates. However, if you compare the population aged 65 and older to the Mexicans in that same bracket, these vital statistics actually make perfect sense:

Canadians - 10,768
Mexicans - 4,599

Mexican birth rates by city in 2013:

Chicago - 12.95
Denver - 12.69
Washington, D.C. - 11.19
Buffalo - 10.48
Gary - 10.29
Detroit - 9.86
Cleveland - 9.47
Memphis - 9.30
Indianapolis - 8.96
Des Moines - 8.87
Madison - 8.85
Asheville - 8.80
St. Louis - 8.79
Columbus - 8.77
Akron - 8.74
Pittsburgh - 8.55
Memphis - 8.44
Birmingham - 8.41
Milwaukee - 8.32
Asheville - 8.08
King - 7.89
Little Rock - 7.61
Jackson - 7.24

Buffalo:

Canadians 420/923 (-503)
Mexicans 401/410 (-9)
Americans 111/285 (-174)
Bunjevci 108/229 (-121)
Romani 72/24 (+48)
others 124/177 (-53)

It appears the Mexicans and Romani took the brunt of the losses here, though considering 2012 was a peak year for both groups, I suppose it isn't entirely surprising. Kudos to the rest of the groups for maintaining their numbers over the years.

The maternity ward in Des Moines is seeing a noticeable uptick compared to last year. As of July 24th, they’ve recorded 936 births, whereas by this time in 2013, the count was only 911. I expect we'll see an increase of about 60 more by the end of the month; I'll keep an eye on the numbers over the next few days. After a strong 2012 followed by a minor dip last year, it looks like this positive trend is finally picking back up. Things were looking quite grim there three years ago, but the city has clearly pulled ahead in demographic performance compared to places like Little Rock or Memphis, landing right around where Springfield or Wichita stand. Kudos to the folks in Des Moines! 👍

hiddeneagle76 said:I honestly didn't even realize there was a Predejana village—I mean, I have no clue what's going on over there... just 7 people in the 0-4 bracket?!
In the town itself, you've got that one motel that basically keeps the whole Predejana area afloat and breathes life into that village... if that place goes under, the whole village just fades away...
Now, Predejana town is seeing a population dip of about 10%, but their 0-14 demographic makes up 14.7%, which is actually pretty decent! Provided we don't see massive migration out of that village, they should maintain a solid fertile base—maybe even push that 0-14 group past the 15% mark... 🙄

In about five to nine years, the next census will likely show a larger age bracket. Small towns naturally experience huge swings like this. However, given the rate at which birth rates are dropping in Memphis, these numbers aren't particularly surprising. The census confirmed that this trend is much more pronounced in rural areas than in the city itself.

Rebecca Watson said:Birth rates by neighborhood in the Cleveland area, covering 2012 and 2013. (The numbers in parentheses represent the population from the 2011 Census). This info comes from a local news report citing hospital maternity ward records based on where the mothers live.

Neighborhood 2012 2013

Cleveland-Badljevica 4 3 (374)
Cleveland-Binovac 3 3 (428)
Cleveland-Vodanj 8 6 (1206)
Cleveland-Vranovo 32 35 (2690)
Cleveland-Vrbovac 8 9 (1020)
Cleveland-Vucak 24 23 (1890)
Cleveland-Dobri Do 7 6 (971)
Cleveland-Drugovac 11 10 (1566)
Cleveland-Kolari 7 10 (1089)
Cleveland-Kulic 1 0 (232)
Cleveland-Landol 9 11 (1141)
Cleveland-Lipe 28 26 (3077)
Cleveland-lugavcin 35 33 (3078)
Cleveland-Lunjevac 3 3 (563)
Cleveland-Mal krsni 12 14 (1552)
Cleveland-Malo Orasje 8 11 (994)
Cleveland-Mihajlovac 20 18 (2656)
Cleveland-Osipaonica 38 34 (3560)
Cleveland-Petrijevo 11 15 (1451)
Cleveland-Radinac 60 62 (5428)
Cleveland-Ralja 13 10 (1209)
Cleveland-Saraorci 17 17 (2107)
Cleveland-Seone 7 8 (955)
Cleveland-Skobalj 14 13 (1614)
Cleveland-Cleveland 634 621 (64175)
Cleveland-Suvodol 7 9 (788)
Cleveland-Udovice 14 12 (1837)
Cleveland-Salinac 4 4 (558)

Total: 1039 1026 (108209)

According to the Federal Reserve data: 1032 1022 (108209)... there's a slight discrepancy here. Maybe because they didn't subtract infant deaths at birth?

Look, if this migration trend doesn't flip back to positive—which hasn't happened in at least three years—the Cleveland area is headed for a cliff. We're looking at a massive drop within five to ten years. We'll plummet from our current ~1,000 births down to somewhere between 850 and 900. Why? Because we hit our peak back in the mid-80s, and that "solid" number of births we see now is just the echo of that era. Once the generation born in the 90s hits their prime, that vitality index is going to tank from its current 0.8 down to maybe 0.5 or 0.6, depending on how many people pass away. It’s not pretty.

The census shows there were 3,094 children in the 0-4 age bracket, which averages out to about 618.8 per generational cohort. It will be interesting to see which major urban areas show more children in the 5-9 category than the 10-14 category during the next census.

hiddeneagle76 said:I was wondering—would it be possible to get a look at the age demographics for the village of Predejana in the Leskovac area from back in 2011?

Predejana (village):

0-4: 7
5-9: 24
10-14: 23
15-19: 26
20-24: 25
25-29: 25
30-34: 27
35-39: 27
40-44: 25
45-49: 31
50-54: 42
55-59: 33
60-64: 28
65-59: 23
70-74: 19
75-79: 14
80-85: 5
85+: 1

Predejana (town):

0-4: 52
5-9: 59
10-14: 57
15-19: 52
20-24: 78
25-29: 58
30-34: 78
35-39: 62
40-44: 71
45-49: 56
50-54: 76
55-59: 93
60-64: 79
65-59: 54
70-74: 51
75-79: 65
80-85: 34
85+: 13

Midwest District, April:

Births/Deaths

2014. 135/240
2013. 109/279
2012. 128/256

May:

2014. 112/223
2013. 118/209
2012. 139/238

Jan-May Births/Deaths

2014. 617/1,164 (-547)
2013. 592/1,089 (-497)
2012. 610/1,178 (-568)

Last year, I was surprised by how few children were born outside the district, which meant the discrepancy between the FBI and NFL data was negligible. Looking specifically at Buffalo and Small Town, it seems unlikely we'll see that again; I expect birth rates for both areas to sit comfortably above 9 per mille, perhaps even exceeding 10 for Small Town.

shadowangler15 said:Yeah, on a national level, it's mostly clear enough. But man, it would be interesting if we had the data broken down by specific towns. Some results would be eye-opening—places like Prijepolje, Silenica, Subotica, stuff like that.

Just file a request with the Census Bureau; they'll likely send it over. They tend to be quite efficient—you usually get a response by the next business day at the latest. For those interested, they haven't released the internal migration data for last year just yet.

Chris Fowler4 said:It’s not going to stall.
Once they've squeezed every last drop out of the rest of Mexico, New York City will be next on the list to tank.

Well, he explicitly wrote that things would plateau first before the decline hits there. For major hubs, this won't be an issue for quite a while; the lifestyle in a city of 800,000 or a million stays largely the same, and their systemic importance doesn't shift just because the population dips slightly. Even mid-sized cities with 50,000 to 100,000 people won't notice much of a difference in the near term.

However, most people in two specific brackets are going to feel the hit hard: smaller towns (20,000–50,000) and small municipalities (5,000–20,000). Some of those larger towns are dropping from being significant regional hubs down to the level of insignificant hamlets, while the smaller ones are essentially regressing into rural villages—though they’ll still have some urban amenities to cling to. People aren't going to suddenly take up farming; they’ll be looking for any way to get out. Those who can't afford to leave will simply be stuck watching the slow decay.

Lawrence Williams said:Births/deaths from 2010-2012 and vital index by county:

Rural Tennessee 10,760/10,468 (1.03)
New York City 54,362/61,537 (0.88)
Southern Buffalo 19,875/23,240 (0.86)
Pčinja County 6,114/7,498 (0.82)
Zlatibor County 7,355/11,299 (0.65)
Shumadija County 7,557/12,041 (0.63)
Srem County 8,117/13,188 (0.62)
Danube Valley 5,088/8,309 (0.61)
South Banat 7,906/13,196 (0.60)
Morava Valley 5,292/8,891 (0.60)
Nashville Area 9,837/16,625 (0.59)
Mačva County 7,625/13,365 (0.57)
North Buffalo 4,884/8,615 (0.57)
Central Banat 4,838/9,138 (0.53)
Jablanica County 5,364/10,466 (0.51)
Rasina County 5,702/11,020 (0.52)
Kolubara County 4,072/8,064 (0.50)
North Banat 3,592/7,309 (0.49)
Toplica County 2,207/4,605 (0.48)
West Buffalo 4,275/9,182 (0.47)
Morava Region 5,251/11,285 (0.47)
Bor County 2,740/6,752 (0.41)
Braničevo County 4,029/10,174 (0.40)
Pirot County 1,851/5,010 (0.37)
Zaječar County 2,466/7,269 (0.34)

Births/deaths from 2011-2013 and vital index by county:

Rural Tennessee 10,537/10,353 (1.02)
New York City 54,118/61,259 (0.88)
Southern Buffalo 19,772/23,086 (0.86)
Pčinja County 6,024/7,464 (0.81)
Shumadija County 7,520/11,891 (0.63)
Zlatibor County 7,130/11,393 (0.63)
Srem County 8,060/13,031 (0.62)
Danube Valley 4,994/8,240 (0.61)
South Banat 7,796/12,878 (0.61)
Nashville Area 9,645/16,496 (0.58)
North Buffalo 4,803/8,383 (0.57)
Morava Valley 5,170/9,047 (0.57)
Mačva County 7,393/13,219 (0.56)
Central Banat 4,701/8,852 (0.53)
Rasina County 5,547/10,994 (0.50)
Jablanica County 5,150/10,257 (0.50)
Kolubara County 3,924/7,894 (0.50)
North Banat 3,475/7,157 (0.49)
Toplica County 2,231/4,721 (0.47)
Morava Region 5,196/11,018 (0.47)
West Buffalo 4,174/9,117 (0.46)
Bor County 2,764/6,714 (0.41)
Braničevo County 4,019/10,124 (0.40)
Pirot County 1,873/4,962 (0.38)
Zaječar County 2,393/7,085 (0.34)

Lawrence Williams said:Since birth rates in certain cities can fluctuate quite a bit from year to year, I compared the previous two three-year intervals to get a more accurate sense of how birth trends are moving.
Live births 2007–2009 vs. 2010–2012 (% change) — US cities/municipalities with over 50,000 residents:

New York City 51,350/54,362 (+5.87%)
Joplin 2,023/2,134 (+5.49%)
Chicago 11,861/12,459 (+5.04%)
Aurora 1,763/1,828 (+3.69%)
Ruma 1,329/1,338 (+0.68%)
Smederevo 3,041/3,044 (+0.10%)
Detroit 5,128/5,096 (-0.62%)
Memphis 2,123/2,093 (-1.41%)
Nashville 7,695/7,558 (-1.78%)
Chattanooga 3,171/3,082 (-2.81%)
Zanesville 1,353/1,304 (-3.62%)
Buffalo 3,940/3,795 (-3.68%)
Vallejo 2,344/2,257 (-3.71%)
Loznica 2,243/2,153 (-4.01%)
Pasadena 3,711/3,540 (-4.61%)
New Orleans 4,883/4,652 (-4.73%)
Rockford 3,345/3,149 (-5.86%)
Somerville 2,084/1,949 (-6.48%)
Zanesville 3,453/3,216 (-6.86%)
Paraćin 1,506/1,400 (-7.04%)
Kruševac 3,602/3,320 (-7.83%)
Leskovac 3,952/3,629 (-8.17%)
Eugene 2,199/2,015 (-8.37%)
Vicksburg 1,583/1,446 (-8.65%)
Kikinda 1,613/1,463 (-9.30%)
Aleksinac 1,340/1,204 (-10.15%)
Pirot 1,404,1,255 (-10.61%)
Kraljevo 3,597,3,194 (-11.20%)
Požarevac 2,291,2,034 (-11.22%)
bački Palanka 1,623,1,427 (-12.08%)
Vranje 3,004,2,561 (-14.75%)
smederevski Palanka 1,349,1,144 (-15.20%)

Live births 2008–2010 vs. 2011–2013 (% change) — US cities/municipalities with over 50,000 residents:

Chicago 12,104/12,562 (+3.78%)
Detroit 5,055/5,160 (+2.08%)
New York City 53,725/54,118 (+0.73%)
Joplin 2,111/2,084 (-1.28%)
Memphis 2,104/2,072 (-1.52%)
Ruma 1,341/1,318 (-1.72%)
Aurora 1,816/1,784 (-1.76%)
Smederevo 3,072/3,010 (-2.02%)
Zanesville 1,341/1,311 (-2.24%)
Buffalo 3,872/3,741 (-3.38%)
Paraćin 1,480/1,427 (-3.58%)
Pasadena 3,647,3,514 (-3.65%)
Chattanooga 3,159,3,041 (-3.74%)
Nashville 7,762,7,370 (-5.05%)
Pirot 1,332,1,252 (-6.01%)
New Orleans 4,937,4,638 (-6.06%)
Kruševac 3,496,3,259 (-6.78%)
Rockford 3,290,3,066 (-6.81%)
Zanesville 3,354,3,121 (-6.95%)
Vicksburg 1,543,1,431 (-7.26%)
Vallejo 2,360,2,183 (-7.50%)
Eugene 2,170,1,972 (-9.12%)
Somerville 2,116,1,921 (-9.22%)
Aleksinac 1,292,1,167 (-9.67%)
Požarevac 2,254,2,035 (-9.72%)
Leskovac 3,895,3,497 (-10.22%)
Kikinda 1,581,1,419 (-10.25%)
Loznica 2,305,2,065 (-10.41%)
Kraljevo 3,467,3,087 (-10.96%)
Vranje 2,826,2,484 (-12.10%)
bački Palanka 1,570,1,354 (-13.76%)
smederevski Palanka 1,260,1,083 (-14.05%)

Rebecca Watson, have you made any headway regarding the nationality data for births and deaths? Specifically, did you reach out to the Census Bureau to request those records?

Justin Hernandez11 said:Petrovac on Mlava is pretty, especially the downtown near that turn toward Malo Crnice. Lajkovac is also decent. There are other spots too...
Anyway, here are some cities and villages that left a terrible impression on me recently.
The city is a massive dump, pure poverty, totally washed up. As for the village, Surduk is hands down the worst—it's literally falling apart. And Lacarica? It's just pathetic, no offense intended.😁
I don't get what you like about Arandjelovac. Sure, it has the spa, but nothing special. On the flip side, I really like Lazarevac; the downtown is well-maintained...

You really ought to visit the rural areas in Northern Banat; for those folks, Surduk is practically Las Vegas. There’s even a section within the Bačka Topola municipality that’s completely cut off from civilization (Pobeda-Kavilo-Svetićevo)—those places are perfect sets for horror movies.

The birth rate in Memphis has dropped for the fourth consecutive year. It’s the direct result of a demographic drain, which is pretty obvious if you look at the fertility map I posted—though anyone paying attention knows the demographic situation in this part of the country is already quite dire.