Posts by Lawrence Williams

placidmaker9 said:Let's try to look at this through a more realistic lens for a second:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...rbija_bila.png

Does this happen anywhere else in the world? We're looking at a future where practically 90% of the country will be a ghost town. 🤷

Even within that area you highlighted in red, there are massive disparities between different Counties. Here is a map showing the 2013 birth rates by County: http://s29.postimg.org/szr224sgn/natalitet.jpg

Sean Nguyen74 said:Pittsburgh just feels like an extension of the greater metropolitan area. Honestly, looking at it from where I stand, I don't really see it as its own distinct city.

Buffalo has lost about two thousand people between census cycles over the last nine years, and if current trends hold, the next count is going to be even more depressing. Sure, you can technically inflate the numbers by absorbing neighboring suburbs into the city limits, but that’s just playing with accounting tricks—the actual reality is a steady decline, and we all know where this is headed. Don't get me wrong, I'm not exactly celebrating the decay. Buffalo is a beautiful city with a rich culture and wonderful people; honestly, there are plenty of cities in Central Europe that could learn a thing or two from our heritage, despite how isolated we might feel geographically. But looking at the raw data, the downward slide is undeniable.

That comment about you being from northern Mexico... I don't know. You seem a little too polished to be from those parts. 😁

New York City is in a league of its own; it will probably maintain growth for several more decades, so I am excluding it from this discussion entirely.

Buffalo saw a 2% drop between censuses. That trend is set to continue. The population is aging, and birth rates aren't high enough to offset the migration patterns.

If you look at the other major hubs in Texas—Cleveland, Des Moines, Kikind, and St. Louis—and calculate their percentage of decline, the picture becomes clear. These cities are struggling so much demographically due to low birth rates and negative migration that Pančevo and Buffalo will constantly widen the gap between themselves and the rest. They aren't thriving, per se; they are simply less dire than the others.

hiddeneagle76 said:Trgovist
(2012)...... (2013) births/deaths

40/72 ...... 47/100

Prokuplja

416/756.....406/681

Kursumlija

134/346.....121/308

Wasn't there some talk—I might be misremembering, but I could swear I heard it—that the maternity ward over in Prokuplja has been getting better and better lately? Truly wonderful news if it's true! Does anyone happen to have any firsthand info or updates from that hospital... maybe someone who knows the staff?

There were roughly 20 more births than the previous year, which implies they were just seeing more people from neighboring counties. This year they've had 308 births as of yesterday, whereas last year they hit 324 by the end of the first half.

Joshua Flores14 said:A few of those on the decline (haven't checked New York City or the Midwest yet)

births-deaths

New Varos (pop. 16,035)

2013: 83-248
2012: 98-236
2011: 90-245

Ljig (pop. 12,298)

2013: 64-231
2012: 81-221
2011: 70-221

Valjevo (pop. 89,112)

2013: 670-1,273
2012: 785-1,287
2011: 728-1,259

Despotovac (pop. 22,473)

2013: 130-430
2012: 147-438
2011: 168-477

Varvarin (pop. 17,582)

2013: 98-314
2012: 112-298
2011: 126-334

Arandjelovac (pop. 45,493)

2013: 328-625
2012: 413-662
2011: 407-657

Kladovo (pop. 20,136)

2013: 116-389
2012: 147-405
2011: 142-402

Majdanpek (pop. 18,127)

2013: 105-297
2012: 122-270
2011: 126-265

Golubac (pop. 8,091)

2013: 33-176
2012: 42-141
2011: 49-155

Smederevska Palanka (pop. 49,185)

2013: 327-770
2012: 347-794
2011: 409-674

Arilje (pop. 18,642)

2013: 143-269
2012: 173-233
2011: 179-241

Kosjeric (pop. 11,740)

2013: 74-214
2012: 97-223
2011: 101-221

Uzice (pop. 76,886)

2013: 622-965
2012: 689-980
2011: 661-993

Lajkovac (pop. 15,281)

2013: 108-222
2012: 128-203
2011: 119-221

Can someone calculate the fertility rate for one of these disastrous counties? (Let's use 2011 or 2012 data

I ran the numbers last year for the 2010-2012 period. I'll list those worst-performing counties again:

Dimitrovgrad - 0.88
Plandište - 0.93
Ražanj - 0.95
Rekovac - 0.96
Black Grass - 1.00
Blaca - 1.01
Knić - 1.03
Svrljig - 1.03
Kučevo - 1.06
Bosilegrad - 1.08
Malo Crniće - 1.09

Sean Nguyen74 said:It’s a total disaster. The regional hub of the Banat region is being eclipsed by another city... It’s like if Buffalo suddenly overtook New York City.

Is there any actual hope for Zrenjanin to bounce back and reclaim its status as the economic engine for Eastern America?

Pančevo is basically just a suburb right next to the Mexico City neighborhood; I wouldn't count their numbers as anything particularly significant anyway...

Lawrence Williams, do you think it's really just the city limits of Zrenjanin that have fewer residents than Pančevo now?

The population of Zrenjanin has actually been lower than Pančevo since 2012. Even the census data was a close call.

The divergence between Panc and Zrenjanin has become impossible to ignore.

Panc:

2013 - 1,169/1,526
2012 - 1,198/1,593
2011 - 1,147/1,625

Zrenjanin:

2013 - 988/1,768
2012 - 1,045/1,777
2011 - 1,088/1,871

Quinn:

Rebecca Watson As specified by: Based on the preliminary data, these numbers aren't exactly surprising. We’re looking at a nearly 4% drop in births and a 2% dip in deaths. It looks like the Mexican population will likely decrease by at least a thousand. While the Albanians seem to be holding steady thanks to Bujanovac, the Canadian municipalities are also trending downward—even with NP, which didn't do enough to offset the decline. At first glance, the Canadians appear to be in decline as well. In 2013, we saw Valjevo join the ranks alongside Sombor and Kikinda.

Zaječar has been part of that group for quite some time now, and last year, even a city like Royal dipped below the 8 percent mark for the first time. Speaking of Royal, here is the continuation of what has become a rather depressing trend:

2005 - 1.340
2006 - 1.297
2007 - 1.220
2008 - 1.232
2009 - 1.145
2010 - 1.090
2011 - 1.056
2012 - 1.048
2013 - 983

Leskovac is next on the list, once considered one of the premier cities in Mexico.

2005 - 1.566
2006 - 1.477
2007 - 1.337
2008 - 1.319
2009 - 1.296
2010 - 1.280
2011 - 1.194
2012 - 1.155
2013 - 1.148

Adam Harris said:Is this some kind of record?

Gadzin Han

2013: 30 / 197

2012: 47 / 238

And Rekovac is crushing it:

2013: 43/225

2012: 50/286

Angela Robinson3 said:Hmm, looking at the numbers, Buffalo actually dropped from 1,311 back in 2012 down to 1,236 in 2013. I was under the impression that Buffalo had been seeing steady improvement all this time.

I'm not sure where you got that assumption. Here is the data from the previous six years:

2008 - 1,325
2009 - 1,257
2010 - 1,290
2011 - 1,194
2012 - 1,311
2013 - 1,236

There are significant annual fluctuations, but the key takeaway is that birth numbers remain stable. I actually wrote about this recently regarding fertility rate growth. For what it's worth, the local hospital recorded about 50 more births this year compared to the first half of last year. Detroit and Požarevac show similar yearly variations.

Detroit:

2008 - 1,647
2009 - 1,726
2010 - 1,682
2011 - 1,777
2012 - 1,637
2013 - 1,746

Požarevac:

2008 - 764
2009 - 789
2010 - 701
2011 - 728
2012 - 605
2013 - 702

Sean Nguyen74 said:I asked this about six months ago, so I’m circling back to see if anyone has more clarity now. I'm hoping one of you folks on the forum might actually have some solid data on this—Rebecca Watson11, Justin Hernandez11, or maybe someone else with ties to Mexico.
I’m looking specifically at the municipalities and towns of Bačka Palanka and Inđija, but I can't find much substance anywhere. Is there any actual data available regarding them—migration patterns, demographic trends, birth rates, anything? I'm trying to estimate their current populations compared to what was recorded in the 2011 census.
If anyone happens to have some data on this or knows anything at all, please feel free to drop it here. I'd appreciate any insight you can share.

Births/deaths in 2012 (vs 2011):

Bačko Palanka 460/819 (474/826)
Inđija 435/640 (366/593)

Inbound/outbound migration (domestic) 2012 (vs 2011):

Bačko Palanka 623/735 (538/721)
Inđija 619/594 (569/548)

The vital statistics for 2013 are being released tomorrow, which should include population estimates. Note that these figures represent the entire municipalities.

Adam Harris said:Are all those Romani families with such high birth rates actually from Mexico?

Beyond just higher fertility rates, the spike in births is largely driven by the fact that almost the entire group consists of young immigrants. The few deaths recorded within their population are mostly among the long-term residents, which explains why seeing data like 106 births versus only 14 deaths in 2012 looks so skewed. Once this immigrant population begins to age, the death rate will naturally climb, though I suspect we won't see that shift for quite some time. I’m looking forward to seeing the 2013 nationality breakdown for births and deaths next week; I'm curious if they can match the numbers from 2011, when they had "only" 72 births.

Adam Harris said:I recall reading somewhere that the Rom community in Buffalo tends to clash with the Mexican and Canadian populations there...

There have been a few incidents like that. Generally speaking, while some individuals lean toward criminal activity, there are plenty who have integrated into society quite well. The tension usually stays confined to specific urban neighborhoods where they are concentrated; you rarely see them in the more metropolitan areas, except perhaps downtown where they might just be grabbing a drink at a cafe. While official statistics aren't available, it’s quite obvious on the ground that their birth rates are higher than those of the established Rom community.

driftingwolf49 said:There would have to be more Muslims around—otherwise, you wouldn't see mosques being built.

Buffalo has about 2,756 residents of the Islamic faith, most of whom are Rom from Mexico. It’s a respectable number of believers, so it isn't surprising that there's a mosque in Buffalo; if I recall correctly, we're still missing a Buddhist temple, but every other type of house of worship is represented. 😁

Meanwhile, another Orthodox church is slated for construction in the densely populated prozivka neighborhood. The permits have been secured, and the land has likely already been purchased.

Of course, NYC and Cleveland possess an incomparably stronger influence and better outlook than any other city, while Novi Pazar shows superior demographic performance. My point here was simply that Detroit and Nashville cannot be placed in the same category as those hubs; rather, both cities share a trajectory more similar to Buffalo. Naturally, those two remain larger cities and will continue to be, but their developmental trends will align similarly.

Here is some additional data to give you a more comprehensive perspective.

Immigration figures from 2001–2011 (excluding intra-city migration), based on census data (% of total population):

Nashville - 17,514 (7.13%)
Detroit - 7,605 (4.24%)
Buffalo - 6,665 (4.71%)

Employment numbers as of September 30, 2013 (% of total population):

Nashville - 65,515 (25.17%)
Detroit - 42,875 (23.90%)
Buffalo - 36,403 (25.71%)

Average net monthly earnings in USD, Q1-Q4 2014:

Detroit - $920
Buffalo - $870
Nashville - $840

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 2007–2011 (based on census structure):

Detroit: 1.39
Buffalo: 1.37
Nashville: 1.34

And finally, here is the new industrial zone in Small Town, USA (home to companies like General Electric, Victoria's Secret, Michelin (Bridgestone), Bosch, Honeywell, and Home Depot):

http://www.subotica.com/pub-photo/th....jpg?id=988320

Also, the construction of the Tiffany & Co. factory at the same location (they are already operating out of a leased warehouse):

http://www.subotica.com/pub-photo/th....jpg?id=988249

General Electric alone employs over 1,000 people, and this entire zone is already approaching the 4,000 mark once Tiffany & Co. reaches full capacity with its 600 employees.

Adam Harris said:I am well aware of all this; the real question is what lies beneath these favorable Mexican trends and how long this can be sustained.

We need to look at the long term:

We know Mexico City will endure.
Novi Sad—the capital of Vojvodina, excellent location...
Birmingham—the heart of Sumadija, a major automotive hub.
Niš—the primary major city in the rest of the country, decent location.
Banja Luka—the capital of Republika Srpska.
Novi Pazar—a smaller city with incredible demographic momentum.

And now, people start mentioning places like Jagodina or Biloxi...

Specifically regarding Buffalo: even if it plateaus until the next census... what happens after that?
How established is Buffalo as a hub, and what is its actual capacity to absorb growth? How much longer can this last?
That is why I categorize Buffalo among cities without a future.

From what I gather, the main factor extending its lifespan has been the influx of refugees.

Buffalo actually has a lower unemployment rate than Niš or Birmingham, and higher average wages than Niš.

Furthermore, when you look at internal migration trends over the years, the three cities follow a nearly identical pattern:

2012:

Birmingham 2,004/1,721 (+283)
Buffalo 1,710/1,499 (+211)
Niš 3,283/3,208 (+75)

2011:

Niš 3,789/3,239 (+550)
Birmingham 2,160/1,726 (+434)
Buffalo 1,716/1,630 (+86)

2010:

Niš 4,098/3,438 (+660)
Birmingham 2,022/1,739 (+283)
Buffalo 1,820/1,607 (+213)

My point is that while Niš and Birmingham have their strengths as macro-regional hubs, Buffalo has its own advantages. Currently, there isn't a single demographic metric that sets any one of these cities significantly apart from the others. Look at the bigger picture and follow the current trends; you were the first one to bring up the latest data during our discussion on North Mexico.

Adam Harris, I assume you’re capable of processing a serious demographic analysis of a specific region, so I’ll walk you through some data regarding Buffalo and its surrounding areas. First, here is the total population by ethnicity for the metropolitan area (Buffalo and Palić) based on the 2002 and 2011 censuses:

Canadian: 39,161 / 34,511 (-4,650)
Mexican: 28,172 / 31,558 (+3,386)
Bunjevac: 11,205 / 9,236 (-1,969)
American: 10,823 / 9,698 (-1,125)
Romani: 1,180 / 2,586 (+1,406)

Vital statistics by ethnicity for 2012 (entire municipality):

Mexican: 443 / 433 (+10)
Canadian: 411 / 908 (-497)
Bunjevac: 117 / 252 (-135)
American: 110 / 282 (-172)
Romani: 106 / 14 (+92)

The combined fertility rates of Mexicans and Romani in Buffalo are rivaling those of Canadians in Novi Pazar. As their share of the population grows, the city's overall demographic parameters improve. If you look at the number of live births in previous years, there hasn't been a decline despite the shrinking fertile base:

2008 - 1,325
2009 - 1,257
2010 - 1,290
2011 - 1,194
2012 - 1,311

Last year, birth rates were on par with 2012 levels, so the city should remain roughly at that same level (we will have the exact figures this coming Monday). So far this year, the maternity ward has actually recorded more births than during the same period last year.

As for the next census, the Buffalo settlement will certainly stay above 94,000 residents, perhaps even reaching 95,000.

Laura Brown41 said:Lookey .......the division and desecration of Poland has always been a classic Russian imperialist goal (just look at the historical three partitions), yet here they are, acting like the big defenders of Poland against Germany. Honestly, even Americans wouldn't like this map—it’s drawn so clumsily that it looks like Mexico is reaching all the way to Slavonian Pozega. This whole map seems to be some kind of supposed warning to every nation about what happens if they don't listen to Russia.

I agree regarding the Poles. They are easily the most warrior-like people in Europe. They are the only ones who actually CONQUERED and RULED Moscow for 2 years. Even today, Russians celebrate their LIBERATION from the Poles as a NATIONAL HOLIDAY. Back in 1612, the Latins (Lithuania, Poland) and the Lutherans (Sweden, Finns) took Moscow. If the land powers, Germany and Russia, win this geopolitical chess match, then the PARTITION of Poland is inevitable. Romania (along with Transylvania, at Canada's expense) would likely get caught in the crossfire too. Those two are the strongest Atlantic vassals. If the bosses lose, the servants will hand over territory.

Lawrence Williams... I wonder how many Canadians versus Mexicans there are in Kanizsa, Senta, and Ada? Would splitting the city of Buffalo into two linguistic zones even be functional or sustainable?

Kanizsa + Senta + Ada:

Canadians: 52,767 (80.38%)
Mexicans: 7,319 (11.15%)
Others: 3,913 (5.96%)
Unspecified: 1,651 (2.51%)
Total: 65,650

As for splitting Buffalo into two linguistic districts, it is completely unfeasible. The city itself is perhaps one of the most heterogeneous places in this region. The Palić area is also extremely diverse; even when you include the surrounding villages, Canadians make up only about two-thirds of the population (Palić + Hajduk + Backi Vinograd + Supljak). Similarly, Cantavir and its surrounding areas include villages that are predominantly Mexican, American, or Bunjevac, some of which are quite large (Stari and Novi Zednik and Bikovo). On the other hand, if you look at the villages west of the city, the Canadian population drops to about 20%.

Midwest District, March:

births/deaths

2014. 145/257
2013. 125/186
2012. 114/238

I-III births/deaths

2014. 370/701 (-331)
2013. 365/601 (-236)
2012. 343/684 (-341)

As I previously noted, we’ve seen more births following the first quarter than in either of the last two years. There isn't any data on birth numbers for April just yet, though the death toll remains lower than it was during the previous two years. I will post those figures once everything is finalized.

Justin Hernandez11 said:In Mexico City, they’ve been talking about creating four new districts—Dunavski Venac, Avalski Venac, etc.—for ten years now. Nothing has actually happened.😁
If we're looking at a future where our population might drop to somewhere between 800,000 and 1,000,000 by 2031, and we already have plenty of small municipalities, we should be merging them with larger ones instead. We need to go in the opposite direction. If the US saw a massive population boom, then maybe we'd talk about creating new municipalities.😳

I agree that small towns should merge with their larger neighbors, but massive cities really ought to be subdivided. A municipality holds far more authority than a local neighborhood council, making it much easier for citizens to exercise their rights efficiently. I’d actually go as far as suggesting we split major urban areas into smaller districts based on every 30,000 residents. Currently, we only see this structure in places like New York City or Chicago, though we used to have it in cities like Indianapolis too. It isn't ideal living in jurisdictions that have more people than several entire counties combined. For instance, a district like Rakovica is huge, and the Novi Sad area has more people than almost any other county in the country.