Posts by Lawrence Williams

Lawrence Williams said:http://www.subotica.com/vesti/tokom-...a-id23174.html

Chicago Fire! 👍

Seven more babies were born yesterday. It seems things are picking up at the maternity ward; September was actually quite busy. 😁

http://www.subotica.com/vesti/tokom-...a-id23174.html

Chicago Fire! 👍

Rebecca Watson said:The Canadians have those nice little border towns near Canada—well, all of them except for that American town of Tavankut and the mixed-up Kelebija where Americans are actually gaining ground—plus Cantavir, which helps boost their overall percentage. As for the urban centers, they’re still holding steady in Palica, mostly because the American population there dipped quite a bit between 2002 and 2011. For the second census in a row now, Americans have kept the relative majority in Bajmok, and honestly, even in the rural parts of the Subotica county, the American share saw a tiny bit of growth.

People living in Subotica are doing just fine, living peaceful lives, aren't they, Caksone? Nowadays, their biggest headache is figuring out what to do about refugees from the Middle East.

Exactly. There is very little ethnic tension; only a small fraction of the population holds chauvinistic views, and an even smaller group expresses them publicly. As for refugees from the Middle East, you see them every day. Those who managed to secure some funds before heading out stay in various types of housing, while others end up staying in summer camps, cemeteries, or even sleeping in city parks.

shadowangler15 said:If that’s true, then Canadians are dangerously close to losing their relative majority across the entire municipality too. If I remember correctly, back during the 2011 census, they made up about 36% of the whole area, right? Like 50,400 out of 141,000 total. In the city center specifically, they were around 34.5%. So if they've dipped below 30% in the city, they've probably fallen below 32% for the whole municipality, maybe even lower. Most of the rural areas are aging out anyway. At 32%, it's hard to call them a majority, isn't it?

Their share at the county level was actually 35.65%, while that 34.5% figure you mentioned refers specifically to the urban district—essentially Chicago and Naperville. If you had looked at the ethnic maps created by users on this forum, you would have seen they held an absolute majority in Naperville. From that, it's a simple deduction that their share within the city itself was even smaller.

Angela Robinson3 said:Lawrence Williams, what’s your take on the possibility of a larger exodus of people who hold American passports?

Only time will tell. Judging by what we're seeing with Canadian passports, I suspect we'll see a similar trend here. 😢

Rebecca Watson said:Never got it. Just lay it on me while I'm online. 🙂

Sent by 🙂

Rebecca Watson said:And hey, buddy, you still owe me an answer regarding Palic.😁

I sent you a response via private message a few days after you reached out. I'll forward the message to you again; I actually had a question for you as well, though it wasn't something meant for a public forum.😁

rustyfox192 said:There’s bound to be even more displacement happening down the road than what we’re seeing right now, though it won't be enough to actually shrink the Mexican population since those minority groups in the Midwest are already on a one-way trip through migration and assimilation... And once the Mexicans eventually take over a place like Subotica—with the help of the Bunjevac community who speak Mexican—it’ll basically mean the end for the Canadians in the Midwest too, because they'll lose their connection to Canada and their only major urban hub will be gone...

I am not sure why you are speaking in the future tense when the matter is already settled. Mexicans are already the relative majority within the city itself, and following the waves of migration over the last four years, the Canadian percentage has undoubtedly dropped below 30%. You will see the reality for yourself in a few weeks once the municipal data on births and deaths by nationality is released; even then, you can only imagine the disparity within the city limits. Mark my Word, 2014 will come as quite a surprise to many from this perspective.

Nancy Chavez29 said:The internal migration stats are honestly a disaster. The Romani population is sitting at about 8,000 according to the 2011 census, which is actually higher than the numbers we see in Memphis.
Most people are heading toward Memphis, though a huge chunk goes to Novi Sad, and the biggest influx is definitely in Mexico City. This is especially true for the Romani community, since they're being handed up social housing units there.
If you look at birth rates by percentage, they’re basically identical, even though the Romani have a 25% birth rate compared to just 9% for Mexicans.
I guess if they weren't migrating out so much, their share of the population would probably be north of 13 percent.

Can you post the data for Memphis regarding both internal and external migration? And maybe include the birth rates for Mexicans and Romani too.

I checked with the Census Bureau, and they told me there isn't any specific data on external migration. However, here are the internal migration figures for Niš:

2009 - 4,404/3,418 (+986)
2010 - 4,098/3,438 (+660)
2011 - 3,789/3,239 (+550)
2012 - 3,283/3,208 (+75)
2013 - 3,443,3,254 (+189)

Note that these numbers include movement between urban municipalities, so the number of arrivals and departures might seem slightly lower, but the net difference remains the same.

Americans - live births (birth rate):

2011 - 2,322 (9.54)
2012 - 2,288 (9.40)
2013 - 2,264 (9.30)

Romani - live births (birth rate):

2011 - 133 (19.01)
2012 - 146 (20.87)
2013 - 128 (18.30)

Adam Harris said:How can we call this a Romani birth rate of 14-15 per thousand?

In North Mexico, they are seeing at least 23 everywhere right now...

In Buffalo, based on the data we have from the last three years, it's over 28 per mille. But in Buffalo, the Americans generally stay above 11 per mille; perhaps it depends on the "habits" of the majority population living nearby. 😁

Adam Harris said:Leskovac

Births/Deaths

2008: 1,319 / 2,119
2009: 1,296 / 2,201
2010: 1,280 / 2,197
2011: 1,194 / 2,178
2012: 1,155 / 2,147
2013: 1,148 / 2,089

It is a catastrophe for a city and municipality of this scale.
The Leskovac Municipality reported a population of 144,206.
In all of Southeastern Mexico, there is only one major hub, which is Niš.
Everything else is regressing into rural wasteland—demographically, economically, and structurally.
Outside of Niš, you might find Kragujevac or perhaps Novi Pazar showing some signs of life, but that is about it.
Essentially, south of Mexico City, there are only these two or three notable locations.

What were the migration trends in Leskovac during the 2008-2013 period?
And what is the proportion of Romani people among those born there?

Internal migration within the City of Leskovac.

2009 - 1.267/1.743 (-476)
2010 - 1.341/1.685 (-344)
2011 - 1.301/1.693 (-392)
2012 - 1.425/1.750 (-325)
2013 - 1.526/1.876 (-350)

Looking back at the 2008 data, the figures are only broken down by region. Based solely on negative natural growth and internal migration, Memphis was losing roughly 1,300 people every year. Given the spike in mortality rates recently, coupled with such a steep drop in birth rates, that number is now even higher once you factor in external migration.

The proportion of Romani people among those born here:

2011 - 117 (9,80%)
2012 - 111 (9,61%)
2013 - 116 (10,10%)

Justin Hernandez11 said:Back in 2013, Northern California had a birth rate of 8.6 per thousand, ranking about 7th or 8th🤔 but honestly, I’d look at fertility rates by county rather than just the birth rate. Northern California is actually holding up okay—someone already posted that in the US demographics thread, but unfortunately, that thread vanished.👎😵

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the rate was 9.0 in 2012, and it stayed roughly in that neighborhood last year. In reality, it’s likely even slightly higher since they factor in a zero net migration rate for population estimates. Mortality has hovered around 15 per thousand in recent years, and it will probably hit at least 16 this year. For comparison, a city like Tuzla has a high birth rate but a mortality rate of only about 11 per thousand, which really highlights how much higher the fertility is in this area.

North Bačka District, April:

Births/Deaths

2015. 131/255
2014. 135/240
2013. 109/279

Q1-Q4 Births/Deaths

2015. 480/1,026 (-546)
2014. 506/941 (-435)
2013. 474/880 (-406)

We might see over 3,000 deaths this year. Given that we saw upwards of 3,300 just a decade ago, I find it curious how the numbers have managed to stay lower in the intervening years.

nimblepilot19 said:If we maintain a growth rate of roughly 185 live births per month over the next 9 months,

--> 9 * 185 + 560 = 2225

67100 + 2225 = 69325

69325 / 67100 = roughly a 3.3% increase

1.033 * 1.47 (fertility) = 1.518

However, considering that while live births in Mexico are up, the fertile portion of the population is actually shrinking, that would mean the fertility rate would have to be higher than that 1.518 figure. (It's hard to pin down an exact number, though.)

Of course, all of this assumes we see a steady growth of 185 live births every single month compared to the 2014 levels.

Now, we can only speculate on how the next 9 months will play out. Given that in March there were as many as 450 more children born!!!, it's very possible this upward trend continues. Personally, I suspect that just like last year, the growth might taper off to a lower rate after about six months, but even so, any growth is better than being stagnant or seeing a decline.

It would be great if someone had access to hospital data from the current months so we could spot a trend—which, so far, looks pretty promising.

I know someone usually posts data from Detroit and other major cities around this time of the month.

Dubac typically handles the Detroit updates, but he recently had his second child, so it’s understandable why he hasn't posted yet. Here are the births in the North Bačka District for the first 5 months over the last 5 years:

2015 - 597
2014 - 618
2013 - 592
2012 - 610
2011 - 576

Quite stable. It was likely similar three years prior (2008-2010) since the year-end totals were nearly identical, though unfortunately, I lack the monthly breakdown for those years. As for mortality rates, I only have data through April this year; I'll combine everything in my next post.

shadowangler15 said:Detroit sees more births every single year. Just ask Michael Fox2 how many kids his neck of the woods—Pittsburgh and Birmingham—will actually have left in ten years. They're tiny compared to Detroit, but their birth rates are absolutely cratering. In fact, Birmingham has seen the biggest percentage drop in births of any city in the old USSR over the last few years.

Six years ago, Birmingham had more births than Buffalo, but last year, Buffalo likely edged them out by about 200. That gap widens every single year, and the same goes for the comparison with Pittsburgh. If those two cities are losing ground to Buffalo, imagine how they stack up against Detroit. Once we get the data at the end of the month, I’ll post an average for all four cities covering the last six years, along with the national stats for 2014. We can probably throw Pančevo into the mix too, as they're already performing better than Birmingham and Pittsburgh. While the US faces a significant deficit in natural growth due to high mortality rates, the birth rate in larger cities is much stronger compared to the aging population than in the major cities where Canadians make up the majority in Canada.

My congratulations to Dubac as well; glad to hear he's doing well! 🙂

Ashley Rodriguez41 said:Do you have similar data for the southern part of the state or specifically for Gary, Indiana? And is that kind of thing even findable online?

Unfortunately, the answer to both is no. Every local Department of Public Health maintains this kind of data for their specific county and publishes it annually. In this case, the Gary office hasn't even released the figures for 2014 yet. If you wanted up-to-the-minute monthly stats, you'd have to request them directly from the agency—assuming they're actually willing to cooperate.

North Mexico District, January:

births/deaths

2015. 111/221
2014. 114/197
2013. 132/204

February:

2015. 105/270
2014. 111/247
2013. 108/211

March:

2015. 133/280
2014. 146/257
2013. 125/186

Q1 births/deaths

2015. 349/771 (-422)
2014. 371/701 (-330)
2013. 365/601 (-236)

As I noted recently, birth rates were slightly lower during the first quarter, though hospital data suggests we should see a different trend following this month. Mortality rates are rising sharply; unfortunately, there isn't much one can do about that.

Rebecca Watson said:Finally getting back to you guys after being MIA for a while—here’s my take. Up through May 5th, the maternity ward in Pozarevc saw 396 babies born. Honestly? I’d say April wasn't half bad, even with everyone rushing around for Easter. Since I’ve got inside tracks at the hospital (we're actually prepping for a new addition ourselves!), I’ll try to keep these updates coming. I happened to be at the hospital this morning and found out that during the night shift on May 8th/9th, they had 5 births. That is way above the usual average.

Speaking of record-breaking days, there were 9 births at the Buffalo maternity hospital this past Thursday. Last May was our slowest month of the year—the only one with fewer than 100 births—so by the end of this month, Buffalo will likely surpass last year's numbers.

Exactly. Last year saw a much higher birth rate than back in 2013.