The thread's gone dead.
I see people asking for analysis—which is fine—rather than just dropping a pick without any context. Though, honestly, I’m no literary critic.
I can offer this, at least:
Just pure stats here. The table on the left shows the probabilities for goal counts (for example, there's a 23.65% chance Augsburg scores twice and a 26.82% chance for Eintracht Frankfurt, which puts the odds of a 2:2 scoreline at exactly 6.34%).
The part below doesn't really need an explanation.
On the right, you've got the odds table, just to make it easier to spot where the bookies are off.
As for the method itself—well, let's just say I took 53 different game elements from OPTA, weighed how much they actually impact the final score, adjusted my initial goal projections accordingly, and then fed everything to Mr. Poisson.
All data is strictly based on the current season.
I don't ever bet solely based on these tables. They lack that "human touch"—you know, the stuff raw data can't process, like actually watching the game live, feeling the team's energy, and all that extra stuff.
But, it has saved my skin plenty of times by planting a seed of doubt or nudging me to take the opposite side.
Sure, it's screwed me over a ton too, but like I said, this is just either the first or last step before putting money down. Everything else is up to you—whether you follow your gut or whatever.
Americans say numbers don't lie, but numbers aren't people.
Numbers don't make mistakes, but people do—and when they do, they mess up the numbers. 😁
Because if that weren't the case, everything would be perfectly predictable. 🤣
The model goes up to a 6:6 result or 8 total goals, so occasionally, if I plug in a team like Paris Saint-Germain that's on a tear, it starts spitting out absolute nonsense percentages that make zero sense given how many goals they're pumping in.
Usually, I just ignore that.
Unless it's an isolated weirdness, like FC Köln going 8:1 last week, or if a team is legitimately unstoppable. 🤣
It might help some people, and it'll wreck others. At the end of the day, everyone decides for themselves when to "pull the trigger." 😍
The wildest part was when I gave a buddy a tip and he took it as gospel. He's like, "This is it, the table says 2:1 is a 10% shot," without even stopping to think about how tiny 10% actually is—or how unpredictable this game is, where things go sideways 90% of the time. 🙏
Basically, I cover the Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A.
I pull the data every weekend (sometimes I miss it, damn, but usually I get it done), so if anyone wants a screenshot of a specific match, just ask.
If this doesn't belong in this thread, feel free to delete me, mods. 🙂
