Melissa Sanchez17 said:Pre-game vibes for the Nonfarm Payrolls report:
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Maury Harris is calling for 192,000 Citigroup Chief U. S. Economist Robert DiClemente is leaning toward 190,000 Morgan Stanley Chief Economic Strategist Andrew Wilkinson thinks we'll see 180,000 Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist Joseph A. LaVorgna is sitting at 170,000 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Co-Head of Global Economic Research Ethan Harris is feeling much more conservative with 130,000
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Maury Harris is calling for 192,000 Citigroup Chief U. S. Economist Robert DiClemente is leaning toward 190,000 Morgan Stanley Chief Economic Strategist Andrew Wilkinson thinks we'll see 180,000 Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist Joseph A. LaVorgna is sitting at 170,000 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Co-Head of Global Economic Research Ethan Harris is feeling much more conservative with 130,000
Patrick Moore3 said:Check the numbers: 2.1. U.S. Treasury securities 1,662,851 Mortgage-backed securities (4) 926,658 30.1. U.S. Treasury securities 1,710,058 Mortgage-backed securities (4) 965,784
In January, Ben picked up about 40 trillion USD in MBS and nearly 48 trillion USD in Treasuries... For the first time since QE2 ended, we're seeing a legit expansion of the balance sheet. It's actually even bigger than what was telegraphed, though he probably dumped some stuff yesterday just to stay within his limits... History says when the balance sheet stays flat, gold climbs... when it grows, gold stalls. Just curious, what do you guys think is stalling gold right now?
1. Gold has become too "paperized." Nobody's trading physical anymore, so the price doesn't reflect actual supply. 2. Demand is dropping (like with Indians, for example). 3. Gold has decoupled from the dollar. Since the dollar isn't the undisputed king anymore, who cares what the greenback does? 4. QE doesn't touch gold prices because inflation isn't hitting. 5. Manipulation by the big bankers. 6. General market uncertainty. 7. No clue. 8. Something else entirely.
2) Wrong—any surplus from the Indians is just gonna get swallowed up by the Chinese. 3) Wrong—the dollar is still the reserve currency, deal with it. 4) Wrong—gold prices are absolutely tied to inflation.
The reports they're pumping out are just full of oxymorons. I mean, how does GDP drop while employment is supposedly climbing during the same window? It makes zero sense.😕
Given how many people are piling into shorts based on today's numbers, this is definitely going to be bad news for gold.
dustyheron5 said:Is there actually a recovery happening in the US? It seems pretty obvious that Federal Reserve officials have been massaging the data just to make their deception easier to swallow. 😁 You can't help but wonder—where did all those positive trends go? All that optimism the official statistics and the Federal Reserve served up during the pre-election period?
If anyone is confused about why the US market keeps climbing, here is the logic: A retail investor calls his brokerage firm: "Why is the market opening higher?" The brokerage firm replies: "Oh, because the US economy just contracted."
Naturally, the usual suspects are already jumping in to spin this as a positive development—it’s like listening to some government official like Vrdoljak try to justify a disaster. 😂 http://www.businessinsider.com/today...hat-bad-2013-1
Yeah. The data they're putting out is bizarre. On one hand, you've got unemployment dropping and a supposed housing recovery, but then on the other, record numbers of people relying on food stamps and a shrinking GDP. It doesn't add up. The FOMC meets today, but there's nothing on the schedule about Ben speaking.😉
Patrick Moore3 said:Also, just adding this... the way the PM's price has been bouncing around over the last month? Makes zero sense to me. Predicting anything short-term feels like a total suicide mission.
I mean, you only had to look at Apple stock the day before yesterday when it closed at $500.00 That’s enough for me to see the truth—the US Mint and the Royal Canadian Mint clearly don't have enough silver left to actually strike coins, yet the price is just sitting there doing nothing.
rustywalker82 said:I remember ranting about that link from some "reputable" international finance site back in the day, basically saying they’re gonna get what’s coming to them. I'm just not sure if I already got a permanent ban over there. 🤣
To be totally honest, I have zero clue what you're talking about. You've probably got me confused with some 🤷
rustywalker82 said:Look, my colleague hasn't even been looking at that site. Every major news outlet out there is reporting on what the Federal Reserve is doing...
Oh yeah, I forgot—you guys wouldn't know about that since we got pretty much blacklisted by those other "biased" news sites. 🙂 😍
And silver is just sitting there 😉 Seriously though, when are we finally gonna open up that PDF on platinum 😂 I’ve got a feeling there’s some massive stash hidden away somewhere that nobody even knows about yet 🤣
My take on gold, especially among Americans, is that the whole thing is handled with this absolute trash, "amateur hour" mindset by its self-proclaimed advocates and "investors." Most people diving into gold treat it like some groundbreaking new discovery—like they finally found the secret sauce to getting rich. It’s basically just another gamble for them, similar to how they jumped into those shady MLM's, bought overpriced condos in Washington, D.C., or fell for those endless sweepstakes schemes. I’d bet my life that most American "gold investors" don't even own a single stock, or maybe they're just clinging to whatever scraps they have left from when they "successfully" speculated during the housing bubble back in the mid-2000s. From that perspective of being totally wiped out, if they actually have any extra cash, they dump it into what feels "safe," even though they're playing in a seriously high-risk asset class. I mean, think about the folks who bought at the peak in the late 70s—they haven't even broken even yet!?
As for the gold bugs in America (or the "experts" who swear by silver because gold is apparently too mainstream), it’s probably not even worth the breath, but I have to mention that it's mostly just a bunch of anonymous, bottom-tier characters. Why would anyone stay completely anonymous in this business unless they had some shady, non-transparent interests? And the funniest part is these "big shots" at some silver conference claiming to be world-class investors, when if you actually shook them down, you'd be lucky to find ten cents in their pockets.
quiettrucker12 said:We’re sitting right here at 1709. If things hold steady, we might actually break 1720.
More like buying it more expensive... seriously, go back and read the last five or six pages of this thread.
quiettrucker12 said:Usually, this kind of weakness right before an FOMC meeting is actually a good sign.
So you get all worked up when I mess with you, yet you’re over here dropping completely different forecasts within a two-hour window—it's wild. Every single one of your predictions comes with at least three different "if/then" scenarios attached to it. Honestly, what's even the point of that? And why act offended if someone calls you out on it? I’m done chiming in on this thread—it’s lost its spark and just doesn't make sense anymore. Everything has devolved into this endless ego trip about who's the better trader, debating pro vs. con theories, or diving into whatever ZH conspiracy rabbit hole we're down today. Real discussion only happens when guys like Francisco, Machiavelli, or some random buyer jumps in and we all start bickering over the list Charles laid out. Personally, I think this whole thread would actually be decent if it were just your forecasts and Charles deciding when to jump in or bail. Hey everyone! 🙂