Posts by quiettrucker12

Unfortunately, the Dollar didn't keep sliding on Friday, which killed some of the momentum for gold. We'll have a better idea of where things stand at the start of the week. If the Dollar stays stubborn—and it looks like it will—gold is headed for a correction that could drag on until late November.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Look, I wasn't even talking about this specific piece—I was talking about his track record of missing the mark time and time again. As for what he actually wrote here... honestly, I don't see this happening.

"the Euro vs the US Dollar"

I'm totally with you on that one.

I've been calling for synchronized moves from the central banks for a while now, and even if they didn't pull the trigger all at once, the coordination was obvious.

The Fed and other central banks are going to try their hardest to keep inflation at some level they deem "acceptable"—as if they get to decide what that is. Some people think they can actually pull it off. Personally? Not me. I think things are going to spiral out of their control. Once that happens, they'll pivot to a new monetary system—something they're already laying the groundwork for behind the scenes. It's hard to say exactly how messy that transition will be, but for most regular folks, it could be pretty damn ugly.

Why do you think it's time for the Dollar to face its reckoning? The idea that the Dollar will weaken against other
currencies is baked right into the expectations for gold prices over the coming months and years.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:So, how deep is this correction going to go in your book, my esteemed colleague? We've got those data releases coming up on October 5th. Could get pretty interesting. 😉

Right now, the key is seeing if the Dollar slips below 78.90. If it does, it’s almost certainly heading under 78.6 before the whole thing crashes. As for gold, we'll see what happens in real-time—maybe a correction from 1890 down to 1700, or maybe just a 50-point dip. That's all just guesswork for now; we'll find out when we find out. It'll probably take two or three weeks to hit 1900.

Next stop, 1900. Or maybe just a correction... assuming the Dollar doesn't completely crater first, which, let's be honest, it probably should.

Right now, everyone is playing chess, trying to outsmart the market. Most people are going to miss the boat when the Dollar finally slips—once the DXY dips below 81 and hits the red zone.

dustyheron5 said:You're absolutely right—if Germany (and the rest of the world) enters a recession, it’s better to hold onto your ammunition, namely the dollar; though, once again, Benjamin isn't a fan of that🤣 and has been quite vocal about pushing us away from the dollar and toward risk-on assets...😁

No smart man joins forces with whatever evil power😛 ends up winning.😂

Regarding QE3, this pullback was entirely expected. We'll see where things stand with metals around October 10th. It was similar last time during QE2—metals rallied leading up to the announcement, followed by a minor correction immediately after, before resuming a fierce rally... I see no reason why this time would be any different.😍

Dapace, Ben actually managed to keep QE3 under wraps this time. Back in 2010, everyone knew what was coming by August, long before the official word. This time, we're still waiting on that QE3 rally to kick in (watch for a test of 1900), followed by a much more significant correction after the event.

Casey Price2 said:If you are set on using ETFs, then for silver, it would definitely be AGQ (x2) or USLV (x3).

Here’s the reality check: if you already own physical silver, stop looking at ETFs altogether and just pick up some mining stocks instead. AGQ and USLV are leveraged instruments. They suffer from decay, which makes them terrible for a "buy and hold" strategy. Even without the decay issue, they're risky enough as it is.

wearyotter36 said:A 2.5% fixed rate???
Take it immediately if anyone offers you that—even if you have to move your money to another bank just to put it in a CD at 4% or higher. 😂

I'm looking into buying more, stacking cash, but this garbage keeps climbing.
Just waiting on when that dip/correction/manipulation/Ben—whatever we're calling it—finally happens so we can all fix our stacks. 😉

We’re just at the beginning of a two-to-two-and-a-half-year wave here. If you actually have physical metal on hand, go find a decent broker and split your buys three ways into mining ETFs like GDX, GDXJ, and SIL. If you’re leaning more toward silver, skip the GDX or toss in some SLV royalty plays. Then, you just sit tight until 2015. Or, if you want to get reckless—which could be incredibly lucrative if you don't mind the gamble—you take a "casino approach" and buy options on GDX with the furthest expiration dates available (I think we're looking at 2014 for now). Just don't bet more than you're willing to lose. The upside there? You could easily see 10x or even 15x returns over this 2.5-year stretch.

Anthony Evans78 said:If you actually think we're in a bull market 🙂
Not this again... 😉

So you see it as money, a currency. And currencies don't have bull or bear markets?

Melissa Sanchez17 said:I don't see it that way. Is it just me, or are you blurring the lines between the 2015-2016 era and 2019? I mean, it seems pretty obvious to everyone that we eventually hit a ceiling at some point.
Maybe grabbing some farmland isn't a bad move for the long haul?

Sure, we could see one more correction, but it would have to be a brutal one, dropping north of $3,000... that would be the real "deflationary period." Ben is probably just getting warmed up.

dustyheron5 said:I agree they are few—but they exist... though that isn't really the point.

I am not an advocate for putting everything into a single asset class—which is why I criticize those folks over on the Berkshire Hathaway thread who focus solely on equities (stocks, stocks, and more stocks). 😂

I've touched on this before: the core philosophy of investing was laid out quite clearly by Leon Richardson in his book Investment I... essentially, gold, stocks, bonds, cash, and real estate (if you can manage it)—every asset has its own cycles of peaks and valleys. There is no sense in sitting on your hands in one asset while it's in a bear market if another asset is currently in a bull run.
I don't have much else to add to that...🤣

Right now, American stocks are in a secular bear market... and buying at this stage, when the S&P 500 is hovering near its 2000 or 2007 highs, doesn't strike me as particularly wise. Secular bear markets typically drag on for about 16 to 18 years—think 2000 through 2017.

Keep in mind gold is sitting in a secular bull market that also has an expiration date, maybe around 2018 or 2019. I know, I know—talking about gold is basically taboo on this board.😁

The name of the game is identifying the secular bull and riding it. You'll need to start sniffing out the next big move soon; it might manifest as a specific breakout sector within the stock market itself.

dustyheron5 said:I agree—I was simply pointing out that, both in theory and in practice, the Federal Reserve can't just hand out cash... that power belongs solely to Congress.

You also have to ask if Ben can even print money without that liquidity leaking into places it was never meant to go. Spoilers: he can't.

dustyheron5 said:It seems some of us are still clinging to delusions, aren't we?

The fact is, not everyone is drowning in debt; for every person in debt, there is typically someone on the other side😂—people who don't necessarily need to sell anything, but instead, they actually need to buy...😍

Why would those holding massive amounts of cash—which buys less and less every day—just sit idly by when they could protect themselves by purchasing real assets?
(They don't strictly have to buy gold or silver—there are plenty of ways to hedge—but gold and silver are the easiest to liquidate if you suddenly need cash.)

The reality is that here in the States, average people (who aren't following global investment trends) are selling their gold (and they barely own any silver) just to cover their utility bills. Yet, despite that heavy selling pressure, the price is sitting at $1,774/oz... and it'll likely clear $1,900 by year-end...

And speaking of central banks, how do you explain the fact that some of them are actively buying gold?
Why would they buy it if they can just print whatever amount of cash they need?
At least you can't accuse them of being financially illiterate... or perhaps you can. 😂

By the way, ZeroHedge and King World News host plenty of brilliant minds. 😉
Not everyone, obviously, but there are enough—you just have to know which ones to listen to.

Exactly. It's like everyone is ignoring the fact that both the big whales and the smaller players are sitting on massive cash positions. We're talking huge amounts of money. But hey, after that insane speech from Benov the other day, I'm sure someone will suddenly have a change of heart.

I couldn't disagree more on the oil situation. His biggest headache isn't going to be falling prices—it’s going to be watching them skyrocket. If we could somehow freeze oil prices while running Quantitative Easing, we'd be golden. But that's not how this works. At this rate, the combination of QE and rising costs is going to drag us straight into a recession in about a year. Once commodity prices start climbing, all those little details people worry about become irrelevant, especially since he seems to think gold doesn't matter. In reality, QE is becoming useless for actual economic recovery or fixing unemployment because of this inflation. It worked well enough to kick the recession can down the road, which is exactly what politicians want: just delay the inevitable.

Patrick Moore3 said:I'm leaning toward the second option. He wasn't joking, he just lacks the leverage to stop it... If QE wasn't the answer, the Japanese proved that long before this mess. You could see it with the first two rounds of QE too—didn't work like they wanted, asset prices kept tanking (real estate, for example). So now they're trying the "blindfolded chicken" method, hoping it somehow hits the target this time? Ben simply can't force people to take on debt and buy junk they don't need just to pick up where they left off in 2008... We're looking at a debt deflation cycle, something Irving Fisher described ages ago. Yet back in '95, Ben actually tore him apart:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_de...tream_interest

Here's how Fisherman breaks down the situation:

Unless some counteracting cause comes along to prevent the fall in the price level, such a depression as that of 1929-33 (namely when the more the debtors pay the more they owe) tends to continue, going deeper, in a vicious spiral, for many years. There is then no tendency of the boat to stop tipping until it has capsized. Ultimately, of course, but only after almost universal bankruptcy, the indebtedness must cease to grow greater and begin to grow less. Then comes recovery and a tendency for a new boom-depression sequence. This is the so-called "natural" way out of a depression, via needless and cruel bankruptcy, unemployment, and starvation. On the other hand, if the foregoing analysis is correct, it is always economically possible to stop or prevent such a depression simply by reflating the price level up to the average level at which outstanding debts were contracted by existing debtors and assumed by existing creditors, and then maintaining that level unchanged.

...so the real question is: how much reflation is actually doable, and is it even enough? That's another story entirely.

Bottom line? Ben doesn't have much breathing room... OPEC is helping him out a bit by keeping production low to hold inflation steady, but he's still stuck cleaning up the massive mess Greenspan left behind. That's gonna take years to fix...

Alright, so you doubt Ben’s ability to pull it off, but I don't think you doubt his intentions. After that speech he gave the other day, it’s hard to question what he's aiming for... now I'm convinced he's willing to go all in. If he has to, he'll just start handing out Dollars directly to anyone ready to spend them.

Besides, I don't think Japan is a fair comparison here. What happened there was a natural byproduct of a powerhouse economy. The situation in the USA is anything but like Japan—plus, the USA still holds the reserve currency, giving them a massive amount of leverage for now. Ben is basically a puppet for politicians, and those are the same people who were perfectly fine with dropping atomic bombs just a few years ago.

Patrick Moore3 said:Since my name was brought up, I figured I'd jump in... I don't have a "dismissive" attitude toward the crisis. It's just a different perspective—one that isn't built solely on a couple of charts or some articles from ZeroHedge and King World News...
I've got my biases. I don't buy that precious metals are hitting $3500/oz anytime soon. If that even happens, we'll be deep in an inflation cycle where everything else quadruples in price. But I don't see that happening in the next 15-20 years, and if it does, it'll just be standard inflation. Hyperinflation? The total collapse of the monetary system because of it? Not seeing it. Simple reason: central banks have unlimited power to print money, which means they have unlimited power to pull it back out of circulation, too. On the flip side, hyperinflation wipes out debt, sure, but it also nukes all savings and pensions. Since the debtors aren't the ones calling the shots, that scenario seems unlikely. And WW3? Not happening with one military superpower backed by the entire NATO alliance. Regional wars? That's just Tuesday; they never stopped. Plus, look at the global situation. People are drowning in debt, unemployment, soaring energy and food costs, and rising taxes. In a society obsessed with instant gratification, who's actually going to spend money on metals to drive prices up? Especially when people are selling right now instead of buying? Given how things stand, all I see is a massive, long-term deflationary period and the inevitable crash of the artificially inflated Western standard we've lived under for the last decade or so. We have to pay back that credit-driven, consumption-based lifestyle with interest. That process is going to take a long time...

Did you actually listen to Benov's speech regarding QE3? He didn't sound like he was joking to me. If he wasn't joking, then deflation isn't on the table. Or do you think he was kidding, but just lacks the tools to stop deflation?

The real question is whether we should have expected QE3 (which is basically 4 and 5 rolled into one) this Thursday, September 13th. Personally, I thought QE3 would hit maybe a month later, sometime in the fall. That's just me being out of touch with reality for a month—but "reality" is really just whatever politicians decide it is in their own heads. Benov's speech wasn't some brilliant economic lecture; it was pure political maneuvering. Honestly, some parts were even embarrassing to listen to. Politicians pull these instant moves, and in this case, they're using tactics that have already proven to be useless.

It’s a bit weird to me. We’ve spent months debating whether QE3 would happen or not. We all knew that when it finally arrived, it would be a massive deal. Yet now that it's actually here, everyone is acting like it's nothing or just ignoring it. Most people here who were either predicting it or claiming it wouldn't happen are suddenly silent. Instead of using this moment to face reality and come up with some new strategy so we can all profit together, they've just gone quiet.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Personally, I started buying when silver was around $33 per ounce, roughly late 2009 and most of 2010, just before the rally kicked off in September 2010. Now it's sitting near 180-$63. But if I take that silver to a local dealer today, I'll get nothing—maybe $32 per ounce. So, you go for it if you're foolish enough to pay $1.00 per gram; otherwise, you don't. A portion of my silver is in old coins rather than .999 fine. My best buy, by the way, was 13 ounces in old silver coins for $333.
The idea was to get more ounces for my money, which I did, but we need a massive price surge and actual mania for my silver to even approach spot value. If someone believes in silver and still does, that's me. However, I occasionally feel frustrated that people won't look at things from a different perspective. Take Billy, Tiger, and the rest. Sure, Charlemagne, San Francisco, and others chime in, and it's good they do, but I get the sense they have a somewhat dismissive attitude toward this crisis and what might unfold. That wasn't the case with previous critics. Correct me if I'm wrong.
All in all, I think my analysis of the situation is solid, and I don't expect to miss the mark long-term. I doubt the premium on .999 bullion will stay at 20% or higher if the price hits, say, 150 USD per ounce, so my "junk" silver should ideally yield a net profit compared to pure bullion. We'll see.
None of this matters much, but there I am, rambling.🙂
That's quite a bold silver forecast; personally, I doubt it. Maybe 75 USD in my opinion.

The only thing actually "gutsy" here is the gold prediction. We already saw that 1:30 silver-to-gold ratio back in 2011. If we hit a 1:25 ratio with gold at $3,000, silver lands at $120.

On the flip side, if we take your $75 estimate and assume a 1:25 ratio—which we probably need to see fall below 1:30 anyway—that puts gold at $1,875 (75 x 25).

My guess? We might see that 1:30 ratio again if gold hits, say, $2,600. In that scenario, silver would be $87, which is still way higher than your $75.

Again, this is just me guessing on silver; it's hard to call. I recently mentioned there's a theory (one I don't buy) that silver leads gold in a bull market, or that it'll lag due to dropping industrial demand. Honestly, I think once silver clears $50 an ounce, it becomes much more attractive to investors. At that point, we might run into actual supply issues with new silver production.

Paul Peterson4 said:Honestly, it’s hard for me to wrap my head around the idea of actually selling silver at the spot price to anyone—unless you're dealing with another individual who’s just looking to park some cash in physical metal. Any decent buyback dealer is going to lowball you; otherwise, they aren't even making a profit on the transaction. Even right now, if I wanted to pick up a one-kilogram bar, I couldn't just grab it for $900—it’s going to cost me closer to $1,100 minimum. You’ve got the minting costs on top of the metal, then the government sticks its hand in with taxes—even with things like reduced sales tax in places like Texas—and finally, the dealer needs to take a cut to keep the lights on.

The best spread I’ve come across is through online dealers like Goldmoney or BullionGold. They charge a little something for storage and a small commission, but that puts you incredibly close to the actual spot price. Plus, those fees stay pretty negligible over the long haul. Best part? It’s highly liquid. If I want to buy more, sell off, toss more cash into the account, or pull my money out, the whole process is fast and painless.

I know, I know—somebody’s going to jump down my throat and claim that anything other than physical gold or silver is a total scam. But look, the scenario I actually see coming isn't some nuclear apocalypse—where everyone's bank records would be wiped out anyway—it’s massive inflation. It seems inevitable once all the big players—the Federal Reserve, the Fed, and the People's Bank of China—decide to flip the switch on the money printers again.

Then there's the option of buying in Switzerland to avoid VAT. A little storage fee, a couple percent spread... people have discussed that enough on this forum already.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:And what about the crowd that loaded up back when it was $12? It's actually good to have people with different takes on the board, otherwise we just turn into some weird little cult.😂

I was talking about the end of the last wave, this current correction, and the upcoming surge—what's actually happening right now. I’ve said it before: those buying at $8, $10, or $12 (I think Robert Vaughn10 was one of them) were absolutely right.

This place turned into a total cult a long time ago, and frankly, I hate it.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:That’s exactly my point. We’re looking at controlled inflation right now—until the second things spiral completely out of hand 😍
and we hit hyperinflation territory. Honestly, anything is on the table at this point 🙂. You really have to stay sharp and know exactly when to pull the trigger and react
.

The window for caution was back in August 2011. That was pure chaos—everyone was panicking, and we were all typing away about selling everything before the peak. Well, that ship has sailed, whether we see some profit-taking and a dip down to 1720 (where we started this run) or not. Back then, Mizuzul and I were debating if silver would hit 22 or 23. It ended up hitting 26. As for this current wave, the "panic buy" window was when you could actually snag silver at 28. Right now, you can still jump on the train, but you’re risking a stomach-churning mini-correction if one hits in the next couple of weeks. If that happens, there might be another shot at 1900, but that doesn't help the people who actually listened to the advice to buy at 28.

It’s a shame Mizuzul doesn't post more often. He's easily the most level-headed person on this entire board.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Based on your logic, what are the peak values for gold and silver at the top of this wave versus the final bubble at the end of the decade? And let's assume we're talking current USD. I realize this is pure speculation, but since you're making forecasts, I'd like to hear them...

Jim Sinclair says 3500, so we're probably looking at a minimum of 3000 and maybe a ceiling of 4000. In the last cycle, the move from the correction to the peak was about 2.4x. That would put us at 3650 (1526 x 2.4), and considering this wave is supposed to be even stronger than the last one...

Silver is harder to call. Maybe $110-$120.

The real action will likely be in mining stocks. We could see those jump 3x from where they are now (the HUI is sitting around 500).

Right now, we're still just consolidating. We need to see how gold reacts once it breaks through $1920 or $2000 and stays there.