Posts by quiettrucker12

mellownomad said:Does anyone have any insight into why silver prices have suddenly spiked over the last day or two?

Because gold jumped. Silver usually follows gold’s lead, just with more "oomph."

When it comes to the gold-silver ratio, buying gold is basically a play to preserve your purchasing power. Buying silver or mining stocks is where you hunt for extra profit—though both are wild rides with massive swings. If gold moves 5% in a day, silver can easily swing 10%. Plus, silver and miners carry extra baggage; since silver is an industrial metal, its demand gets shaky during recessions. Personally, I don't care much about the industrial side when we're talking physical Silver.

Things are going to get really loud in this little corner of the "alternative investments" forum once gold breaks past $2,000. 😁 ... we might go from being a cult to a full-blown religion at that point. :-)

Sandra Sullivan said:There’s actually a pretty good chance you could get burned. For gold prices to keep moving up, you need a massive wave of new buyers hitting the market, and honestly, that seems less and less likely as time goes on.

Or just a few big players moving huge volumes. I think everyone realizes that once gold clears the $2,000 mark, the real heavy hitters start showing up. Right now? Those people are incredibly rare in the gold market. The Hedge funds are already positioned, sure, but they’re mostly just dipping their toes in with small percentages.

We’re drifting into the third stage of this bull market, and honestly, things are about to get much tougher for traders. You’re going to need a heavier core position, preferably in physical assets—not just for security, but because you can actually hold physical stuff through the inevitable roller coaster. Today was a perfect example. Holding a heavy long position right before Ben's speech was basically just gambling. I’m guessing plenty of traders who don't quite grasp how bull markets evolve or where we are in the cycle tried to short this. Predicting the next move is tricky, but one thing is certain: the trend has shifted. Currency pair analysis suggests a rough climate for PMs in the short term, but if you take a quick glance at gold or silver, you'll see a totally different story. Right now, staying out of longs feels like too much of a risk.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Morning!
Gold is heading straight for—and right through—$3500. Honestly, that’s the only thing that matters here. Everything else is just extra noise and useless drama meant to distract you. Jim 🙂 ☕

Some Friday laughs for you:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/friday...arbeque-relish

Looks like those trading algorithms finally overheated and burned out.

If we get at least $3500 in this upcoming wave over the next two and a half years, and then after another correction like this one—once everyone decides the bull market is dead—we could see another surge like this, leading us right into the final bubble toward the end of the decade.

Oh sure, because having nothing but a workers' council calling all the shots is such a brilliant idea.

Anthony Evans78 said:Gold is money, whereas oil is just a commodity.
Is that concept really that hard to wrap your head around?
To put it simply: since modern currencies are printed out of thin air in practically limitless amounts, their value is basically negligible. But if you want to maintain the illusion that they actually mean something, you have to attack the one thing that reflects their true worth.
Since you still don't get that gold is money, there's no point in me talking to you. Like I've said a thousand times, go educate yourself on why gold counts as money while oil doesn't.
Silver didn't crash; the price was intentionally crushed. Who do you think dumped hundreds of millions of ounces back in late April and again in September? PHYSICAL silver? Nobody, obviously, because no one actually had it to sell. The paper price dictates the physical market, which is how you can dump hundreds of millions of paper ounces just to tank the price.

They're all commodities. Goldman Sachs has been riding this wave for 12 years now. This whole manipulation talk always finds a home in silver because the silver market is tiny—it’s actually possible to move the needle there. Most people realize the gold market is massive, so they're more careful about peddling those nonsense theories. Now, your theory suggests someone manipulates silver to somehow control the price of gold and commodities in general through this tiny, microscopic market. That sounds like something you picked up from reading too much ZeroHedge.

Anthony Evans78 said:Gold is money, whereas oil is just a commodity.
Is that concept really that hard to wrap your head around?
To put it simply: since modern currencies are printed out of thin air in practically limitless amounts, their value is basically negligible. But if you want to maintain the illusion that they actually mean something, you have to attack the one thing that reflects their true worth.
Since you still don't get that gold is money, there's no point in me talking to you. Like I've said a thousand times, go educate yourself on why gold counts as money while oil doesn't.
Silver didn't crash; the price was intentionally crushed. Who do you think dumped hundreds of millions of ounces back in late April and again in September? PHYSICAL silver? Nobody, obviously, because no one actually had it to sell. The paper price dictates the physical market, which is how you can dump hundreds of millions of paper ounces just to tank the price.

The smart money sold in late April. They knew that parabolic moves stretching way above the 200-day moving average are a trap. Plenty of traders were looking for an exit but waited for "just a little more," and things would have absolutely cratered at $55 or $60 if silver hadn't hit roughly $50 an ounce first.

For anyone who needs a refresher, here is the silver chart from 2011:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01700166996

You can clearly see how silver went parabolic and stretched far beyond its 200-day line. Those kinds of blow-off tops are the biggest danger to any bull market. The best way for a bull market to stay healthy and go high is to avoid going parabolic in the first place. So, if we're talking about manipulation, the real "rigging" would be forcing a parabolic spike, not the subsequent crash. That's Trader 101. Pullbacks that don't turn into full-blown parables (like what we're seeing in gold right now) are actually great for a bull market. If luck is on our side, we might see another major correction like this in two years, followed by one final surge toward the end of the decade that ends in a terminal parabola. Eventually, people will decide other things—like stocks—have become cheap, and they'll rotate out of expensive commodities into something else. That's just how the cycle works.

Anthony Evans78 said:How do you not see that gold is the direct enemy of their fiat currencies and the only true measure of what things are actually worth? Of course they're shorting it; unlike fiat, they can't just print more gold with a few clicks of a mouse.
It’s clear you still don't get that gold is money, not just some commodity.
Unlike other "markets," precious metals rarely face real corrections when supply and demand actually shift. Please, enlighten me: what market logic explains a "correction" where value drops 5% in a matter of seconds? There isn't any.

And what about oil? Or any other commodity? Why is gold the standard but oil isn't? Just look at the oil chart I posted earlier.

Anthony Evans78 said:How do you not see that gold is the direct enemy of their fiat currencies and the only true measure of what things are actually worth? Of course they're shorting it; unlike fiat, they can't just print more gold with a few clicks of a mouse.
It’s clear you still don't get that gold is money, not just some commodity.
Unlike other "markets," precious metals rarely face real corrections when supply and demand actually shift. Please, enlighten me: what market logic explains a "correction" where value drops 5% in a matter of seconds? There isn't any.

?????? I'm lost... what does "out of thin air" even mean in this context? 🤷😁

Anthony Evans78 said:How do you not see that gold is the direct enemy of their fiat currencies and the only true measure of what things are actually worth? Of course they're shorting it; unlike fiat, they can't just print more gold with a few clicks of a mouse.
It’s clear you still don't get that gold is money, not just some commodity.
Unlike other "markets," precious metals rarely face real corrections when supply and demand actually shift. Please, enlighten me: what market logic explains a "correction" where value drops 5% in a matter of seconds? There isn't any.

Gold is a commodity. Are all the other commodities, like oil, which have climbed just as much over the last 12 years, considered "money" too?

Anthony Evans78 said:How do you not see that gold is the direct enemy of their fiat currencies and the only true measure of what things are actually worth? Of course they're shorting it; unlike fiat, they can't just print more gold with a few clicks of a mouse.
It’s clear you still don't get that gold is money, not just some commodity.
Unlike other "markets," precious metals rarely face real corrections when supply and demand actually shift. Please, enlighten me: what market logic explains a "correction" where value drops 5% in a matter of seconds? There isn't any.

You think there's no reason. Any asset that stretches too far in one direction eventually snaps back the other way... especially when it hits the 200-day moving average.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64147976269

Look at how everything plays out near the 200 DMA. Back during 9/11, once it broke above the 200-day average, we saw a similar move in the opposite direction. These are just pressure valves; that's how bull markets work. It's not magic. Plus, that's how bull markets function until they go parabolic—like silver did in May 2011. Silver took forever to recover after that crash. Honestly, it's just easier to swallow some manipulation conspiracy theory everyone loves to talk about. You can't eat a conspiracy theory. Silver is primed for the next chapter, whether that starts right now (depending on the Fed) or, if I had to guess, in about two months.

It’s honestly mind-blowing how many people are obsessed with the idea that the biggest investment institutions on Wall Street are somehow too incompetent to realize they're shorting the greatest Wall Street run in history—a run that’s already been going for 12 years. This whole manipulation conspiracy theory fits perfectly into the playbook for those "analysts" online; it gives them a built-in excuse whenever their predictions fail. Sure, there’s manipulation in every market at certain stages—big players nudging prices or algorithms hunting retail stop-losses—but being obsessed with downward manipulation in an uptrend that has lasted 12 years is just absurd.

Let me say it again: if Franjo acts as an analyst and predicts things will go up (which they have for 12 years straight), then if they don't go up, he just blames "manipulation" so he isn't wrong.

If you look at charts from other similar Wall Street runs that lasted about 15 years (and by the way, this one looks like it'll blow past 15), you'll see corrections that look almost identical to what we're seeing now. The whole "point" of these massive corrections is to reset investor sentiment—basically to convince everyone that the Wall Street run is over. That’s why even smart people on this forum right now think the party is finished. It’s a classic battle of emotion versus knowledge.

rapidranger54 said:Well said. A very polished sentiment.
I can't help but wonder what the price of gold would look like if, heaven forbid, Israel and Iran actually went at it—oil hitting $300 per barrel, total economic collapse, and all that. At that point, I suspect the biggest winners wouldn't be investors, but rather some grandmother out in rural Montana with a cellar full of potatoes and a couple of sheep in her barn...

Unfortunately for "grandma," the European Union has already "taken care" of her too. Look, we've been in a commodity bull market for 12 years now, so oil hitting $300 isn't even that crazy. Moving from $100 to $300 is "only" a 3x jump, whereas the climb from $12 back in '99 to where we are at $96 was an 8x move.

Check the oil: http://alhambrainvestments.com/wp-co...-long-term.png

rapidranger54 said:I will likely look like a fool in your eyes once the gold euphoria hits—that inevitable boom and all that—but to me, it feels far too much like the real estate bubble from ten years ago...
gold is just metal...if you want something durable that won't rust, there's aluminum or stainless steel...just kidding.
to me, this looks like yet another mechanism to siphon money from the public through the media and the banks, all designed to enrich a select few...

The Bull market hasn't hit the average person yet. Right now, we're in the phase where they're squeezing gold out of people through various buyback programs. Of course, by the final stage, the "little guy" will get burned again because they'll be buying at the absolute peak after selling everything while it was still cheap.

It looks like both gold and the stock market have stopped caring about how weak the US Dollar is. That tells me the Greenback is either bottomed out or right on the edge. The Euro has hit its trendline, and if Ben doesn't cook up some QE—or maybe some supercharged turbo QE—by Friday, I think the Euro is going to slip. If that happens, we’re looking at a final two-month sprint for the Dollar. Such a move would likely trigger a massive autumn sell-off in everything except the USD. Any rally in precious metals coming later in October would look like a total hurricane compared to the little scraps we've seen lately.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Right now, I'm mostly preoccupied with the tug-of-war between inflation and deflation, specifically wondering which one hits first and how the sequence will play out. That’s why I think it makes sense to hold some cash on hand—even if it means taking a hit if prices drop.

I was just about to ask—where on earth did Mizuzul disappear to? 🙂

dustyheron5 said:If this news about China injecting $800 billion into their economy holds up... metal prices are going to skyrocket😍...and commodity prices will follow suit too.😉

http://www.scoop.it/t/gold-and-what-...ence-telegraph

For context—the previous stimulus package was around $596 billion.

This would basically be a preemptive strike against Quantitative Easing—a full-on currency war. The article lists it in Pounds, which works out to about $1.25 trillion, or roughly 1 trillion Euros.

Mark Thompson6 said:What are you basing this month-long outlook on? Are you betting on a continued slide for the Dollar, or is there something else driving this?

Everything, really—but definitely not a weaker Dollar. It already hit my 1.26 target (I was actually aiming for anything between 1.26 and 1.27 on EUR/USD)... so, I'm looking at a stronger Dollar through the fall and no QE3. Sure, Ben could flip the script this Friday, but I'm not holding my breath.

Nothing surprising here. Back on August 16th, I wrote this when it was sitting at 1620 Dollars:

quiettrucker12 said:Things look good today, but don't get too ahead of yourself. The stock market is closing in on an April peak, and I doubt the S&P 500 can push much past 1422. It all hinges on the Dollar—it really needs to lose steam soon and step aside for a few days to let our quasi-currency take center stage. This rally might last another ten days or so. Personally, I see gold hitting a max target of 1700, though 1642-1670 feels more realistic. After that, we’ll probably slide down through most of September, maybe testing a floor around 1550 in November before we finally blast off again.

Well, those 10 days have passed. If things head south or manage a tiny nudge toward 1700, then everything is playing out exactly as planned. The problem is, seeing this play out in real-time feels way more sudden and aggressive than I expected—it almost looks like a total trend reversal.

This is starting to look like a serious trend.

We hit 1664... then 30.25... now we're sliding down toward roughly 1620... 28.5, before heading back up again.

Things look good today, but don't get too ahead of yourself. The stock market is closing in on an April peak, and I doubt the S&P 500 can push much past 1422. It all hinges on the Dollar—it really needs to lose steam soon and step aside for a few days to let our quasi-currency take center stage. This rally might last another ten days or so. Personally, I see gold hitting a max target of 1700, though 1642-1670 feels more realistic. After that, we’ll probably slide down through most of September, maybe testing a floor around 1550 in November before we finally blast off again.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:We'll see how things shake out over the next few days, quiettrucker12. Honestly, I'm almost certain we aren't getting Quantitative Easing 3. The market is holding its own right now—fragile as hell, sure—but it's staying afloat. I caught somewhere that they won't even bother with Quantitative Easing 3 because the Federal Reserve can just drop a few well-timed statements every month to nudge the market up, let it dip, then swoop in with another comment to stabilize things... and they can just keep playing that game for another year if they want to!

Honestly, after Mario's big speech, I don't think we even need Quantitative Easing anymore.

Held at $1547 (basically that $1555 trendline). Now the big question: if the Dollar slips below 82—maybe hitting an 81.6 or 81.7 on the DXY—how high does gold fly? For now, we’ve broken above the 10-day moving average. Only three more hurdles left :-) Next up is the 75-day moving average (which also acts as a trendline gold has failed to crack multiple times) at roughly $1611, then the previous peak at $1622, and finally $1642.

Let's not kid ourselves here; the current setup isn't great for gold. It’s trending down. But since the bottom held its ground again, it looks like we're headed straight for a test of the upper boundary (which happens to be the 75-day moving average).

So, looking at the current price of $1587... our lower consolidation floor is that $1555 trendline (though it's sitting just a hair above that now). The ceiling is the 75-day moving average, currently at $1613, though by the time we actually get there, it’ll likely have drifted down to $1611. That leaves us with a tight $55 range between the floor and the ceiling ($1611 - $1556). Right now, we're sitting $24 away from the top and $31 from the bottom.

brightviper48 said:Not necessarily. About half of the technical tools out there actually generate counter-trend signals.

Otherwise, "the trend" is such a loose, broad, and fickle concept...

I was talking about building a trend using tools most people actually have access to, then following it—like expecting a run up to 100 before the drop. Basically, can you actually make money just by riding the trend, even when everyone already knows what it is? I think that’s what mkovac was getting at. In actual trading, there are much more important things to worry about than that.