Posts by quiettrucker12

Robert Vaughn10 said:I wouldn't rule out the possibility of stronger deflation, though if it happens, I suspect it’ll be short-lived. That’s why I decided to hold some cash.
I don't believe they'll let a total collapse happen, even if the fact remains that M2-base money has plummeted by 25%. That's incredibly deflationary. As for this QE, it seems calculated enough to avoid immediate hyperinflation, instead bleeding into specific asset classes over time. People will see their standard of living erode without even realizing it at first; it’ll likely take two or three years before inflation hits double digits. The market could swing either way, and frankly, the timing and strength of these moves remain questionable. But make no mistake, the long-term trend is inflationary. Massimo has written extensively on this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUBJs28u5Ek

Watch the first part of the interview, specifically from 8:40 through 13:00.

Gold should be viewed as insurance against all these maneuvers. Personally, I have no intention of selling until I see them wind down the QE and pivot back to sensible policy—assuming, say, silver doesn't hit at least five times its current value. It's unrealistic to expect the government to guarantee the average American's standard of living with this kind of currency, so precious metals will likely see massive price surges as a hedge. If they stick to the old playbook, we'll face massive imbalances that could threaten the entire system. They won't allow that to happen.

Exactly. It all plays out perfectly for us. We get another two-and-a-half-year bull run in precious metals, followed by a correction that makes this one look like nothing—something along the lines of the 2008 crash. We managed to navigate this current correction within a $100 range (well, at least with gold; silver was a headache, not to mention the miners), but we're definitely going to feel the sting of the next one.

One thing is absolutely certain: Ben isn't going to let deflation happen on his watch. He couldn't care less about it, and he's got more than enough tools in the shed to make sure it stays away.

Check out this clip of Ben back in the day: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szwclmmKwLg

dustyheron5 said:Does this look right?😍

No. 😁

You're just wasting my energy when we should be busy celebrating QE3 (4, 5, 6...).

Now the real question is when we see some minor profit-taking and a little correction. Are we heading straight for 1780, or will we briefly spike past 1805 before sliding down toward the 1720 mark?

dustyheron5 said:I am referring to your reaction to my post... I brought up my Colleague first, but I wasn't being negative—I simply stated that he was mistaken.
That isn't "negative context," it's just the truth—and I don't mean he can't be right (theoretically, he could be through the end of the year), but rather regarding his suggestion to short metals back when Soros and I were buying.😉

Besides, you’re better off not trying to nitpick my words🤣 since you ended up being spectacularly wrong yourself—you took a hit, and metals had to correct. Well, look at the facts: you were wrong, they didn't correct when you said they would; instead, they went even harder up. Did I quote you accurately? 😂

So, let me get this straight: I gave you the positive context, and then you turned around and used it to make a negative point? Unbelievable. 😁

dustyheron5 said:I am referring to your reaction to my post... I brought up my Colleague first, but I wasn't being negative—I simply stated that he was mistaken.
That isn't "negative context," it's just the truth—and I don't mean he can't be right (theoretically, he could be through the end of the year), but rather regarding his suggestion to short metals back when Soros and I were buying.😉

Besides, you’re better off not trying to nitpick my words🤣 since you ended up being spectacularly wrong yourself—you took a hit, and metals had to correct. Well, look at the facts: you were wrong, they didn't correct when you said they would; instead, they went even harder up. Did I quote you accurately? 😂

It was pretty wild watching you pivot so hard after spreading nothing but falsehoods. You just jumped to an entirely different topic and tried to blend them all together like it made sense. That little exit you made the other day? Purely tactical—just part of that back-and-forth dance you’ve been doing lately. By the way, there wasn't a single rational reason to hold a long position yesterday during the speech, either.

Patrick Moore3 said:Just running. Today. Buy a kilo of gold... then what? on Maybe JP Morgan could finally wrap up a quarter in the green!

Where exactly are you finding all this hype? We laid our cards on the table back at the end of 2011, and we aren't even due for a look at the results for another three and a half months. You're basically just back to where you were in February. Why the sudden celebration? 😉

Over the last week—actually, looking at all the hype from this past month—it feels like everything that could possibly go right for gold finally did. Every single bullish argument we've heard all year has been fired off. So now what? Is QE3 just supposed to magically send prices through the roof on its own? As if. The first two rounds didn't even trigger the inflation everyone said would drive gold higher. Why? Because people were supposed to have more cash in their pockets, but instead, they actually have less. Neither a third round of QE nor any future rounds are going to change that reality. The people who dreamed this stuff up proved pretty quickly that it doesn't touch inflation or deflation because it doesn't spark new lending. That’s where the real inflation comes from. Right now, the only thing keeping inflation alive is the absolute madness in energy prices. But looking mid-term? We're heading straight back toward deflation.
A few days of good vibes, then we’re right back to the usual grind.

Actually, it's the opposite. When it comes to commodities, Ben only really cares about oil prices and will try to use politics to keep them under control. He mentioned yesterday that the drought 🤣 caused a slight bump in commodities, which squeezed oil slightly—it's all basically the same thing. People think he's obsessed with the price of gold, but that's far from the truth. He couldn't care less about gold.

dustyheron5 said:

I don't follow. What exactly are you getting at? As specified by dustyheron5:
I didn't misunderstand you—I clearly recall that $50 statement. If you look back at the quotes above, you'll see them. I included those specifically because I know exactly who I am dealing with. 🙂 😁 And I wasn't being skeptical—quite the opposite (just look at the quotes again).

I should have used the term "camp"—I respect the differing perspectives here. Generally speaking, there are two camps: the inflationary and the deflationary. I assume Charles falls into the deflationary camp. However, some from that side might change their minds if they actually listened to Ben’s press conference today.

You're absolutely right. 😉

You’ve managed to drag me into this too—now I find myself mentioning Charles in a negative light.😍He isn't a bad investor at all—not by any means. He simply miscalculated this time around.

Back when gold was trading between $1,850 and $1,900—he nailed it—predicting that things were headed for a massive downturn.

The estimates are generally solid—but let’s be real—even the best data can have its fair share of errors slip through the cracks.

Wrong again. Go back and look at your post 3543.🙄

lonehawk5 said:@quiettrucker12
@indijanac

Once again, you guys are dragging me into this mess.
Let me tell you something...
Gold started dropping back in September 2011, and by November, it was obvious a correction was coming—which, for me, meant a full-on downtrend, so that's how I played it. It lasted until about June. Silver? Same exact story, just even more aggressive. If you didn't see that coming, you shouldn't be trading at all.
I'm not one of those "value investors" who couldn't care less where gold or silver ends up in a month, a year, or two. I’m smart enough not to waste my time with those kinds of forecasts, and anyone actually trading knows they're useless. Leave that stuff to the "analysts" and the other self-proclaimed experts.
Inflation, deflation... honestly, I don't care. It's not that I don't get the consequences certain moves have on the economy, but like I said, it doesn't matter when you're trading. The market can stay irrational way longer than you can stay solvent.
It’s simple, yet so many people here insist on acting like idiots. If you think I wasn't playing long on gold and silver yesterday, you're dead wrong—but it doesn't even matter, because you lot are just here making predictions. There's nothing wrong with predicting, but predictions don't put money in your pocket. What matters is whether you bought or sold at the right moment or not. Everything else is just noise.

You ended up being collateral damage for indijanac's fantasies🤷 ... I have no idea why he gets carried away like that sometimes.

I get what you're saying about trading; I actually called for an exit from precious metals right at the start of the correction (not digging through old posts to prove it). Still, I have to take issue with your comment about gold being in a bear market. It felt clumsy, to say the least, and it could lead people astray given we're in the middle of the biggest bull market ever. I doubt any of us have seen anything like this, and we might never see it again.

I can see why those guys are giving you grief now, considering how condescending you've been lately—from that "just keep playing" attitude in the quote to everything else. I don't know why you feel the need to communicate like that (I haven't seen that kind of vibe anywhere except maybe in some weird corner of the US). I sort of get it if you're trying to counter the SEC-style😁 approach of certain forum members whose "buy and hold" strategy works great in a bull market this massive, but will cause huge problems when they actually need to exit at the peak. There's a difference between patiently trying to teach the crew that every bull market ends in a parabolic move, and just acting arrogant. Arrogance is a death sentence for a trader. We need humility, period.

dustyheron5 said:Sorry, you misread my point🤣........I recall you saying there was potential for a move, though you remained skeptical about the specific valuation.......
But you're right—I shouldn't group you in with Karl...😂

I always follow your gold and silver price forecasts closely—I truly value your insight.

I didn't misread anything. I clearly remember that $50 call—just look at the quotes above. I pulled them because I know exactly who I’m dealing with 🙂 😁 and I wasn't being skeptical, quite the opposite (check the quotes again).

dustyheron5 said:Sorry, you misread my point🤣........I recall you saying there was potential for a move, though you remained skeptical about the specific valuation.......
But you're right—I shouldn't group you in with Karl...😂

I always follow your gold and silver price forecasts closely—I truly value your insight.

Actually, "camp" would be a better word since I respect different perspectives. Generally speaking, there are two camps here: inflation and deflation. I'm guessing Charles is in the deflation camp. Some of the deflation crowd might change their tune after listening to today's press conference from Ben.

dustyheron5 said:It’s entirely possible it won't hit 50 within this calendar year... though it's clear to everyone now that the objective probability exists. Just a few months ago, neither you nor Karl gave it even a glimmer of a chance.🤣

It seems to me you two have recalibrated your odds.😉

Wrong. Completely off base. Just look back at May 18, 2012:

http://www.forum.us/showthread.php?t=544488&page=40

meaning:

May 18, 2012.

dustyheron5 said:Bought some silver yesterday; planning to pick up more today.
Might even play with some leverage.

I'm expecting silver to hit $50 an ounce by the end of the year.

Best,

May 18, 2012.

Charlemagne said:🤣

May 18, 2012.

quiettrucker12 said:45 😛

May 19, 2012.

dustyheron5 said:Look, you know me... this is just my take. I'm not telling anyone else to follow it, and honestly, I wouldn't mind if it hit your 45 either.🤣 In fact, 😍
but just as easily as my forecast could be wrong, it could just as easily overshoot.
😂

It’s pretty funny how, after I’ve dropped xyz posts here, you try to lump me in with Karl, who actually thinks gold is a winning play in a bear market.

That $5 difference is irrelevant to this debate—you’ve completely lost the plot anyway. But now that we've cleared the air and I've wasted 15 minutes digging through old threads, all that's left is to see who ends up closer to the mark by the end of the year: 45 or 50.

vividgull10 said:The market is wild right now—Gold could break 1900 in San Francisco today, or it could tank so hard you'll wonder who turned out the lights.

Either way, regardless of your bias, staying cautious is what matters most.

It’s just not happening. Or, if you want to be polite, it’s nowhere near realistic for something to shift like that overnight. What you're saying is just oversimplifying a massive, complicated mess.

dustyheron5 said:Thanks... the global economy is in rough shape, which forced Ben's hand with BlackRock...

With this move, the presidential election is essentially decided—Obama is cruising toward a second term... meanwhile, we look toward gold at $2,000/oz and silver at $50.😉

We probably won't see that until 2013. Expect some serious pushback at 1800, and then much heavier resistance coming up in November (??) around 1900. It almost certainly won't blast through 1900 on the first try this year. There’ll likely be at least a month between each attempt.

So, the path forward is finally clear. We’ll probably see some sideways action around the 1790/1800 level for a month or two while we test out that 1900 ceiling. I honestly thought a quick little dip was more likely, but looking at things now, that scenario is officially off the table.

If we see a correction coming, expect it to play out over about a month. That said, there's a good chance it’ll be nothing more than a minor dip, maybe landing somewhere around $1,700.

darkotter35 said:Personally, I’m looking at this setup and seeing a textbook foundation for a slide down to 1650. ☕

That’s one of the two scenarios I laid out earlier. But honestly, even if that plays out, I don't see them heading straight there without hitting the 1760-1800 zone first.

Looks like gold is building a foundation for a jump to 1760

I don't see gold dipping below $1,600 or silver dropping under $30 again. Honestly, my current bet is the worst-case scenario: we hit a bottom in about a month and then it absolutely takes off. For a while, that was the only path I saw, but now there's a real shot at hitting $1,780–$1,800 before a small $50 correction pushes us toward $1,900. I’ve got no clue which of these two plays actually lands, but I'm convinced we won't see those sub-$1,600 levels "ever" again. Either the run to $3,500 has already started, or it kicks off within the next thirty days.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Where do you guys think gold is heading this Thursday? I’m calling it at $1550-$1600!

😲

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13Rs1XqZyBo

analogharbor44 said:Then why wasn't silver at $48 back then? Does that mean this consolidation phase keeps going until it hits $48 again?

Basically, yeah. It’ll likely drag on for another six months, maybe longer if gold decides to break past $1,920. But look at this:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53037001376

If you connect the dots on that chart, you get a downward trendline that just got snapped. That means there's a legitimate shot at testing the previous highs. Even so, don't expect us to actually blow past that peak until mid-year or maybe summer 2013.

dustyheron5 said:👏

Silver entered its bull market after gold did...
And silver's consolidation period lasted nearly a year and a half—which is longer than gold's...
Both gold and silver are breaking through key resistance levels; the sentiment is becoming increasingly bullish.😉
If there is any truth to the rumors of central bank intervention this September... things are going to move up aggressively.😍

The broader picture is actually quite grim—I'm looking at the data coming out of China:
European Union exports dropped by 16.2% in July.
Exports to Italy fell by 26.6% (year-over-year).
Iron ore prices plummeted 33% over the last month alone.
The issues within the European Union remain unresolved—not a single one of them.
Things aren't exactly rosy for Americans either—with elections approaching, if they intend to help Obama secure a win, they'll need to be hitting "Ctrl+P" on those stimulus measures pretty hard.😂

The fact that sentiment is turning bullish—combined with a potential rally in the Dollar (though a peaking Dollar over the next month or two doesn't necessarily mean a roadblock for precious metals)—is basically the only data point right now that isn't working in our favor. But look, bullish sentiment is just a byproduct of a rally; that’s just how bull markets work. Usually, everything revolves around the 200-day moving average. Prices stretch a bit above that line, traders snap in to take profits, and then the cycle repeats. That constant tug-of-war is actually why bull markets can grind along for so long without going parabolic.

Silver went parabolic because Gold suddenly spiked and surged well past its 200-day moving average. Since Silver tends to shadow Gold but with more leverage, it followed suit—shooting way past its own 200-day average (hitting $28 before skyrocketing to $48!). Naturally, once it gets that extended, traders jump in to lock in gains or rotate back into Gold.

Gold is the boss here. Silver tends to track the commodity index a bit closer—back in May 2011, both silver and the CRB/commodity indices hit their peaks at the exact same time. There’s this theory floating around that a silver bull market always stays way ahead of gold's, but honestly, I don't buy it. My take? The longer the bull market drags on, the less silver acts like an industrial metal and the more it just mimics gold instead of those commodity indexes.

dustyheron5 said:He made a solid point to his colleague... now he just needs to explain why gold spiked in the first place. 😂

😁

After the correction, gold needed some breathing room to find its footing. As we predicted, it went into a consolidation phase. That sideways grind lasted about a year, carving out a downward trendline, and now gold has finally broken out above it—though it could have just as easily broken lower.