vividgull10 said:We'll just have to wait and see.
Personally, I don't bother with forecasts. I don't need them to trade, and honestly, they usually just get in my way.
If we’re just talking pure mental gymnastics and crystal ball gazing here, I’m leaning toward the idea that the dollar still has one more massive leg up left in it—probably pushing past 84. The stage is already set for it.
I'll say it again: I'm taking that "forecast" with a massive grain of salt. We're living in a pre-market phase, and at the end of the day, the market is whatever the market is.
PS.
I wasn't taking a shot at you or anyone else in my last post. It was just an observation about the general vibe of this thread. 😉
There’s a strong case for ignoring the timing aspect here, and that’s because gold is currently sitting in a massive secular bull market (if you don't believe me, just look at the charts since 2000) which has its own predictable corrections. In a bull market like this, Buy and hold while ignoring timing and minor pullbacks is a solid recipe for profit. For me, however, timing is everything—but strictly as a tool to spot those specific corrections within the larger uptrend.
Trading, speculating, and investing all look different because of that single factor: time. I don't quite get why you're so hung up on the timing component while ignoring the actual forecast—you know, what happens tomorrow, next week, next month, or next year. No matter how you trade, we're essentially placing bets based on probabilities. If our probability assessments are sharp, all we need is decent money management, and we're set. Whether you arrive at a forecast through fundamentals, technicals, or gut feeling, you're still just making a prediction to bet on.
The Dollar might do what you think, but it doesn't look like a likely scenario to me. Calling that prediction "yesterday's news" is probably accurate. If you think it's outdated too, why not just drop it now that the circumstances have shifted?
My approach is to identify where the bottom is—or when it's getting close—and ride it to the top. I try to anticipate the trend while staying protected by the massive bull market, which eventually corrects any mistakes I make.
vividgull10 said:We'll just have to wait and see.
Personally, I don't bother with forecasts. I don't need them to trade, and honestly, they usually just get in my way.
If we’re just talking pure mental gymnastics and crystal ball gazing here, I’m leaning toward the idea that the dollar still has one more massive leg up left in it—probably pushing past 84. The stage is already set for it.
I'll say it again: I'm taking that "forecast" with a massive grain of salt. We're living in a pre-market phase, and at the end of the day, the market is whatever the market is.
PS.
I wasn't taking a shot at you or anyone else in my last post. It was just an observation about the general vibe of this thread. 😉
So far, we saw that after I wrote that back on September 20, 2011, gold dropped to $1523 (it would have hit $1450 if things hadn't played out differently). Now we wait to see if it hits 1900 soon. I don't feel like digging through old posts right now, but I've said multiple times that gold might need a year of consolidation after a correction before it regains momentum. It's weird that you're criticizing my focus on timing when I've highlighted, defined, and emphasized it repeatedly. Timing is practically my obsession in all of this. Maybe it's because you aren't seeing the massive bull market that's been running for over a decade, where these corrections happen with surgical precision. Or maybe these long timeframes, year-long consolidations, and multi-month momentum swings just seem endless to you...