Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
Still just waiting on Wednesday to see what Ben's got to say about all this.
Home ›
quiettrucker12 › Posts
Posts by quiettrucker12
375 posts shown.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
lonehawk5 said:Gold is flying out of the US..my first big buy.
If you're playing this game, you could set a stop loss just under 1685.75 on a single lot and ride it until February, aiming for roughly 1880.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
Another massive leap forward. We finally broke the 10 DMA barrier.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
Provided, of course, that it doesn't tank below $1,685.75 during Monday's session.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
We're sitting at $1708. Probably bottomed out. Now we wait for the gas pump to kick in.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
Watch out for individual stocks, especially single mining companies.
When it comes to miners in general, they’re driven by pure human nature—they're wild. Just like silver, they tend to skyrocket and then absolutely crater. You can see that ratio in the charts I posted; one minute they're worth X, and the next, they've surged toward 3 almost instantly. That's the kind of volatility we've been seeing so far.
Every bull market has its own quirks. In this current run, gold is clearly the boss, but miners often decide to march to the beat of their own drum. Junior miners offer massive profit potential, sure, but they're also high-stakes gambles because most of them just go belly up during development. Then you've got the explorers...
By the way, I hold some physical silver (picked it up around $29). It wasn't about the "paper vs. physical" risk debate for me; it was more about how easily you can hold onto physical metal through all these ups and downs, plus other systemic risks.
I forgot to mention yesterday that miners closed just slightly above their 300-week moving average. Basically, that 300 mark acted as a floor and stopped the correction right there:
The HUI mining index—the blue line represents the 300-week moving average.
When it comes to miners in general, they’re driven by pure human nature—they're wild. Just like silver, they tend to skyrocket and then absolutely crater. You can see that ratio in the charts I posted; one minute they're worth X, and the next, they've surged toward 3 almost instantly. That's the kind of volatility we've been seeing so far.
Every bull market has its own quirks. In this current run, gold is clearly the boss, but miners often decide to march to the beat of their own drum. Junior miners offer massive profit potential, sure, but they're also high-stakes gambles because most of them just go belly up during development. Then you've got the explorers...
By the way, I hold some physical silver (picked it up around $29). It wasn't about the "paper vs. physical" risk debate for me; it was more about how easily you can hold onto physical metal through all these ups and downs, plus other systemic risks.
I forgot to mention yesterday that miners closed just slightly above their 300-week moving average. Basically, that 300 mark acted as a floor and stopped the correction right there:
The HUI mining index—the blue line represents the 300-week moving average.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
Weekly beauty (75 wma)
Big picture:
Weekly 75 wma 3 year
(Note: weekly charts)
---------------------------------------------------
Daily:
That little downward trendline just snapped (trading below the 5 dma now). To actually confirm we've hit a local bottom—and let's be clear, the key floor was back on Nov 5th at 1672-3—we need to see a close or at least a move above the 10 dma:
Daily gold
------------------------------------------------------
Miners:
$gold:$xau (basically the ratio between gold prices and the mining index):
$gold:$xau daily view
Big picture:
$gold:$xau weekly view
Look, when you divide the price of gold by the miners, you get a specific number. The higher that number goes, the more cheap the miners are relative to gold.
The bigger picture (this part of the chart is missing here since it’s mostly historical data):
$gold:$xau
The data shows that 11 is roughly the threshold where miners become seriously undervalued. How much? Well, if we consider 6 to be the norm, it would mean they are currently sitting at almost "half price."
Naturally, the average Joe is too terrified to buy right now. They’ll wait until things are overvalued (say, below 6) because there's some logic to following the trends.
Sure, they could slide even lower, but nothing I've pointed out suggests that's likely.
If this bull market keeps rolling and gold hits, say, 2400 like it did back in 2013, and if the gold-to-miner ratio ($gold:$xau) corrects back to 6, we're looking at a +41% move for gold, but nearly a +150% jump for the miners. If the ratio stays at the current 10.5, gold at 2400 puts xau around 228. But at a ratio of 6, xau would hit roughly 400. Current 162 + ~150% = 400.
----------------------------
I don't really get the gold bugs on this forum. Everyone is busy typing away about minor daily hits to gold or silver stops—just a few Dollars here or there—while there's an actual massacre happening in the "soul" of the market, which is the miners. And yet, not a single word about it.
Big picture:
Weekly 75 wma 3 year
(Note: weekly charts)
---------------------------------------------------
Daily:
That little downward trendline just snapped (trading below the 5 dma now). To actually confirm we've hit a local bottom—and let's be clear, the key floor was back on Nov 5th at 1672-3—we need to see a close or at least a move above the 10 dma:
Daily gold
------------------------------------------------------
Miners:
$gold:$xau (basically the ratio between gold prices and the mining index):
$gold:$xau daily view
Big picture:
$gold:$xau weekly view
Look, when you divide the price of gold by the miners, you get a specific number. The higher that number goes, the more cheap the miners are relative to gold.
The bigger picture (this part of the chart is missing here since it’s mostly historical data):
$gold:$xau
The data shows that 11 is roughly the threshold where miners become seriously undervalued. How much? Well, if we consider 6 to be the norm, it would mean they are currently sitting at almost "half price."
Naturally, the average Joe is too terrified to buy right now. They’ll wait until things are overvalued (say, below 6) because there's some logic to following the trends.
Sure, they could slide even lower, but nothing I've pointed out suggests that's likely.
If this bull market keeps rolling and gold hits, say, 2400 like it did back in 2013, and if the gold-to-miner ratio ($gold:$xau) corrects back to 6, we're looking at a +41% move for gold, but nearly a +150% jump for the miners. If the ratio stays at the current 10.5, gold at 2400 puts xau around 228. But at a ratio of 6, xau would hit roughly 400. Current 162 + ~150% = 400.
----------------------------
I don't really get the gold bugs on this forum. Everyone is busy typing away about minor daily hits to gold or silver stops—just a few Dollars here or there—while there's an actual massacre happening in the "soul" of the market, which is the miners. And yet, not a single word about it.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
The USD might just keep sliding from 80.70 straight down into the abyss ☕
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
Still no confirmation of a bottom. We’ll see tomorrow, but breaking above 1703 USA would be a massive win. If we can't clear 1703 USA tomorrow, we're looking at either a consolidation phase or a straight-up dip (happening sooner for silver than gold) leading up to that FOMC meeting on Wednesday the 12th.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
vividgull10 said:Can I get a little more context here?
Just wondering what you're basing that on. Is it a massive rejection that would signal a double bottom (or whatever you want to call it)? Or something else?..
Take a look at my previous posts. I've mentioned the minimum target (100 dma) several times, along with this backup 75 wma (which only came within about $2 of the goal). Obviously, nothing's been confirmed yet.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
Correction's over. Bottom hit at $1685.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
Robert Vaughn10 said:I haven't seen you take a single short position yet, only closing out after prices drop.
If we’re actually in a bear market—which seems to be your logic—it stands to reason that shorting would be the easier path for a trader.
So go ahead, pull the trigger on a short. Then maybe I'll believe you actually think we're in a bear market.😉
I don't think we're in a bear market. I'm just saying—bear market rallies are killer opportunities for longs, and those massive bounces always look incredibly convincing. Honestly, even those rallies are easier money than trying to short. Real money is made on the long side.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
vividgull10 said:Yeah, sure you are. 😍
An Ego Trip is one thing, but being an emotional trader is a whole different animal.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
vividgull10 said:Not sure why it's getting under your skin so much.
The guy's an emotional trader... and there's nothing wrong with sharing a little feeling when the life of a trader or investor is already lonely enough. 😍
Don't be such a robot. 😉
You're joking, right? Like Charles is some kind of emotionless machine? It’s actually useful to have things written down here so you can track your own headspace—it’s basically a journal... and it might even help someone else out.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
analogharbor44 said:Totally agree with you regarding ZeroHedge. Honestly, I'm done arguing with people on this board. It’s pointless. They treat those guys like they're gospel, so...
I'll go look at the movie. Super curious to see what it's all about! 🙂
Regarding that other guy—I don't get what's so exciting about him just posting a gold price and saying "long" when his whole trade lasts like two or three hours. 🙂
Haha, for sure... consider it supplemental therapy. Just means you don't have to read ZH for a few days.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
analogharbor44 said:Look, I see you're a trader too, so why aren't you posting your entries and exits here?
Good on him for starting this thread. Honestly, it beats all those endless ZeroHedge links everyone around here obsesses over anyway.
I've suggested this movie as an alternative to ZeroHedge a few times now:
Might be a bit off-topic, but 😁
"Jerry Fletcher (Gibson), a conspiracy-obsessed New York City cab driver, sees evidence of sinister plots in even the most ordinary places" 🙂
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
lonehawk5 said:Who even are you? Seriously... what is your deal?🙂
Is there some kind of ban somewhere? Is someone blocking me or what...
Wait, so we aren't even allowed to post stuff like this anymore? Is that the rule now? Seriously...
The mods? Seriously?...
😂
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
Walter Barrett8 said:There's a difference between schooling and an education.
Right now, you're investing time in your education by learning about gold; if it actually turns out to be a solid investment, we could argue that buying gold is really just a derivative of educating yourself about money. 🙂
You could also buy a little plot of land, put in the hours to learn how to grow vegetables, plant some fruit trees, and rediscover that old-school connection between knowledge and the soil. You’d end up eating high-quality, homegrown produce where you know exactly where it came from—especially if you source your seeds from some local farmer who’s been preserving them for generations.
It’s always fascinated me how people struggle to make ends meet in big cities when there are so many ways to forage or sustain yourself—gardens, mushrooms, chestnuts... you name it.
Look, honey, it hasn't even broken $100 yet.
We might see a small dip down to a weekly average of $75, which is what halted the slide back on November 5th. If that happens overnight, we're looking at roughly $1,683.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
We’re getting incredibly close to $32.50... looks like a prime chance for the bottom today. It would be nice to see gold close above the 100 DMA (above $1697) for once.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future
in Other Investment Types ·
Andrew Barrett4 said:I guess that’s more or less the gist of it (and it’s not just stocks that are undervalued, for the record). There really is no such thing as an ultimate asset, so Precious Metals aren't exactly 'the silver bullet for all time.' That's just my take, anyway, even if I do hold some.
Still, none of that changes the fact that this uphill climb is probably going to last quite a while longer.
Sure, but honestly, he should have tossed in those two or three sentences since he already mentioned gold prices can swing wildly.