Posts by quiettrucker12

vividgull10 said:Personally, I’m fine with seeing someone actually account for time. Whether we're talking three months, three years, or thirty, he's keeping the door open to changing his mind as things evolve.

It's a hell of a lot better than most of the posts on this board, where everyone acts like the Dollar is going to collapse either this afternoon or sometime tonight.

Take a look back at my post from September 20, 2011. I wrote then that it would take a long time for gold to hit 1,900 again. Well, it's been nearly 14 months since then, and we finally hit that 1,900 mark.

The Dollar isn't going to vanish this afternoon or tomorrow. Instead, we're entering a period of gradual devaluation. Back in the spring, when everyone thought the Euro was dying, I wrote that the Dollar would hold its crown until maybe summer, but warned that a shift was coming.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:If we're talking about a 1:1 ratio, I'm buying stocks for myself 😍—and I seriously hope it doesn't take twenty years for that ratio to hit 1:1. 😉

And then you buy them for them? What would they even do with silver? In about ten years—assuming we aren't busy fighting wars—we'll be living in a completely different, much better world where metals like gold and silver won't even be all that valuable.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Look, I'm with you on the bull market stuff, which is why I said I'd love to see it hit those levels, even though I'm skeptical. Besides, I was pretty clear about waiting until after these elections pass before making any big moves with gold, silver, or stocks. Most of this current chaos feels like nothing more than standard market noise to me. Whether gold hits $10,000 while the DJI sits at 10,000 (or even less), who knows? You definitely have to watch the Gold/DJIA ratio and know exactly when to bail on gold. As for silver, I'm not selling. I view it as a ten-year-plus play, so I couldn't care less about the daily swings—I'll just bury it somewhere and let it sit; it'll come in handy for my kids one day eventually.😍

Yeah, assuming they actually manage to find it and dig it up so they can make some chains or whatever. 😁
Why bother buying them high-quality stocks instead, say at a 1:1 gold ratio? They'd just blow through all that cash anyway.😉

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Oof, those forecasts of yours are looking pretty bright. If that actually happens, silver's gonna tank below $28.😍

That wouldn't just be a minor shift—it would mean everything. We’re talking about a total 180-degree policy reversal, which would likely signal the death knell for our current bull market. Sure, that implies silver dropping below $28, but in the grand scheme of things, that's just noise. I think... As long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the system, market crashes aren't happening. Period.The Fed can print money until they're blue in the face. In the medium term, the only thing this is going to trigger is a controlled bear market driven by rising oil prices. We’re looking at a perfect storm: the stock market drifting lower while commodities—led by oil and gold—start heading north.

Francis is basically telling us to stop dragging our feet on ending the Fed's stimulus and just let the stock market face reality—even if that reality is a total crash. He wants gold prices to actually reflect what's happening right now. His whole point is that the Titanic should just hit the iceberg immediately, rather than continuing this policy of sailing the ship around the world for two more laps before finally crashing. If we want gold to hit that $10,000 an ounce target, we need exactly that: we need the Titanic to refuel so it can take three more unnecessary laps before the impact.

Patrick Moore3 said:Look, I'm not an idiot. Don't throw those cheap five-year stats at me... save that for someone else. I'm not talking about a five-year window here. Around mid-September last year, I was actually bullish on gold myself... but based on certain indicators, back when gold was still sitting at 18xx, I was the first one brave enough to post here on September 15th saying gold was in a bubble and wouldn't last much longer...
While everyone else was celebrating Quantitative Easing 3 and predicting gold would hit astronomical levels, I told them straight up: "Enjoy your few days of celebration, because we're going right back to how things were."
Now, people will probably claim it was all predictable, even though I'm being called "full of nonsense" by some...

I took a look back at September 15, 2011. You definitely wrote that back then, but you also included this in the exact same post:

Patrick Moore3 said:Look, I'm not an idiot. Don't throw those cheap five-year stats at me... save that for someone else. I'm not talking about a five-year window here. Around mid-September last year, I was actually bullish on gold myself... but based on certain indicators, back when gold was still sitting at 18xx, I was the first one brave enough to post here on September 15th saying gold was in a bubble and wouldn't last much longer...
While everyone else was celebrating Quantitative Easing 3 and predicting gold would hit astronomical levels, I told them straight up: "Enjoy your few days of celebration, because we're going right back to how things were."
Now, people will probably claim it was all predictable, even though I'm being called "full of nonsense" by some...

Gold was all over the place that day, swinging between $1,760 and $1,820.

Since we’re digging up the archives anyway, I found my old post from five days later—September 20, 2011. It was a Saturday. On Friday the 19th, gold was bouncing between $1,770 and $1,810. We hadn't hit the crash yet, and prices were basically holding steady right where they are now. This one feels more accurate:

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

I was a bit naive back then, thinking Ben might actually let a bear market happen. He didn't, and he isn't about to start now—unless oil prices decide to wreck his plans. It took forever for them to find the nerve to pull the trigger on more Quantitative Easing, but we're headed toward $1,900. Personally, I think we hit that mark within the next three months.

Patrick Moore3 said:Look, I'm not an idiot. Don't throw those cheap five-year stats at me... save that for someone else. I'm not talking about a five-year window here. Around mid-September last year, I was actually bullish on gold myself... but based on certain indicators, back when gold was still sitting at 18xx, I was the first one brave enough to post here on September 15th saying gold was in a bubble and wouldn't last much longer...
While everyone else was celebrating Quantitative Easing 3 and predicting gold would hit astronomical levels, I told them straight up: "Enjoy your few days of celebration, because we're going right back to how things were."
Now, people will probably claim it was all predictable, even though I'm being called "full of nonsense" by some...

Back to business. At what price point do you actually turn bullish on gold again? $1,900? $2,000? Is there even a number?

And let’s be clear: that wasn't a bubble. It was just a standard correction after a massive rally. We've finished the correction and a long consolidation phase. Ben recently kicked off Quantitative Easing 3, so gold is primed for its next big leg up.

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Patrick Moore3 said:Patrick Moore3

Since we're talking about the same thing, I'll just answer your questions right in your own post... Sorry to break it to you, but Ben hasn't done a damn thing.

Quote : Patrick Moore3

Man, there were days when an 81 felt like a total fluke. An 82? Forget about it, impossible. And 84? That was straight-up science fiction.

Patrick Moore3

Look, QE3 didn't actually happen. Seriously. Just take a look at the Federal Reserve's balance sheet—they haven't bought a damn thing.
Check this out. Just digging through some recent data from the Federal Reserve. Really makes you think about where we're heading. Any thoughts?

Patrick Moore3

So, what now? Since Quantitative Easing 3 never actually happened... are the doomsday preppers right? Are we staring down the barrel of deflation and mass bankruptcies?

To me, this looks like an attempt to prop up the indices ahead of the elections. They're trying to dodge a repeat of the 2008 nightmare. How else do you explain the talk about Quantitative Easing 3? Just the mere whisper of it triggers such a massive psychological reaction.

I'd love to see you guys make some money... but I'm worried none of this will pan out.
Feels like something ugly is brewing just over the horizon...

Nov 7th.

quiettrucker12 said:Probably just the last few death rattles from the King ($) before he gets dethroned. Sitting at 80.918... honestly, I doubt it’ll even touch 81. This is really just a temporary hiccup for the George Washington.

So you're saying it *might* happen, but it's not a sure thing—that 81 is just a possibility. Right?

Nov 2nd.

quiettrucker12 said:Emotions. It’s always emotions. Just like any other bottom, everyone starts panicking, claiming it's all over and gold is going to crash forever. As for gold, bottoms happen. We already know there's a chance it could drop as low as 1620 (though there's a slim shot that the slump drags on longer). Ben has already handled the Dollar, so I don't see it breaking 81.5. Thinking it hits 84 is pure science fiction.

I set 81.5 as the line in the sand. We're sitting at 81.085 right now. Just wait until we break 81.5 before you tell me I'm wrong. If we clear 81.5, then we'll see exactly how much further it goes and how badly you missed the mark. I don't think it can blast past 81.5 immediately—maybe a quick spike in a few weeks—but by then gold will probably already be at $1,800. Time will tell. Come on, give me a real forecast. A lot of people are low-key hinting at 84+ without saying it out loud.

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So, are you betting that Ben cancels or delays Quantitative Easing 3, triggering a market crash and starting a bear market? Thinking gold is headed back to $1,600?

Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

Patrick Moore3 said:those used to be actual drivers... nowadays metals just dance along with the rest of Wall Street... 😢
and don't get too hung up on the debt ceiling either... Congress will probably bump that limit to 18 or 19 trillion US Dollars and we'll just keep riding the same old wave for another year or two😉

You think they’re about to tank? From what I can see, gold has been climbing since the 5th while stocks have been sliding. We'll hit that sweet spot eventually where stocks drop and gold climbs, but the S&P has to hit the ceiling before it starts falling.

Patrick Moore3 said:those used to be actual drivers... nowadays metals just dance along with the rest of Wall Street... 😢
and don't get too hung up on the debt ceiling either... Congress will probably bump that limit to 18 or 19 trillion US Dollars and we'll just keep riding the same old wave for another year or two😉

So where's the actual issue? It's all in the sentiment. Is everything feeling this way because the S&P is bottoming out? What else would a bottom look like if not this?

We just touched that expected 1370 level on the S&P 500. Let's see Monday if that was the floor or if we're heading even lower.

dustyheron5 said:I did—finished most of it earlier this week.😉
I might still grab a few more shares in energy—specifically something in the oil and gas sector.

Mining stocks didn't even blink at this recent market volatility. It’s a perfect case study in why you have to view mining stocks through a completely different lens than the rest of the market—even if these broad corrections usually drag them down eventually. Once the S&P 500 finally hits rock bottom, the miners will... 🙂 I can’t remember the last time we saw a setup quite like this. We had something similar back in May, but things weren't nearly this stable—if you can even call this world "stable." Back then, everyone was emotionally fried from the constant doom-and-gloom propaganda (even here on the forums) claiming the bull market was dead and buried. I remember you were buying, I was buying... but now? Everything feels clearer. Anything could happen, sure, but right now, the pieces are falling perfectly into place. We saw massive buying on the dips in SPY yesterday (that's the S&P 500 tracker for the uninitiated, much like how GDX tracks the mining sector), and today is looking even stronger if you factor in the QQQ. We'll just have to see if Asia pushes gold toward 1750 overnight, or if we're stuck waiting until Monday or Tuesday.

Precious metals are acting completely differently than the broader stock market right now.

The mining index.

Stock index.

I honestly think a ton of people could actually afford to pick up a single Jan 2014 call option—an American option—on GDX for pretty damn little. $833Look, if you’ve got an extra $5k or $6k burning a hole in your pocket, who cares? If you’re already buying gold, you clearly have the cash to spare for a play that looks a hell of a lot more promising than when we were all chasing random stocks on the NYSE back in 2007. Options are risky as hell. You should only touch them with money you're actually willing to set on fire. I'm not giving anyone financial advice here—just pointing out that you don't need a massive bankroll to ride a bull market. That $5,000 is basically just what most people blow on a single weekend trip to Aspen. A few people could probably skip one ski trip and put it toward this instead. The bottom line? Options let you control a huge chunk of shares for a relatively small amount of capital. The best part is you can't lose more than what you put in. For example... $833 x 6 km = $5000The biggest loss you can take is that. $5000The potential upside is massive.

dustyheron5 said:$1,450 for an ounce... we’re only $20 away from ATH...😉

So, did you pull the trigger on everything you planned to buy?

I think people are tripping over today's stock market dip. In my view, gold hit rock bottom at $1,673 this past Monday, November 5th. But let’s be real: it isn’t going to pull a massive moonshot until other asset classes actually land. I’m talking about oil and, obviously, stocks like the S&P 500. For some reason, people don't seem to grasp how vital that gold floor is. Maybe the S&P 500 bottomed out today, maybe it didn't. We might see another day or two of sliding toward the 1,370 mark, but there is absolutely no way we're hitting that 1,266 level Mark Faber mentioned earlier today. 🤷

Once the S&P 500 finishes its descent—which should be in a day or three—gold is going to hit a hurricane force rally along with everything tied to it, like miners and silver. I already laid out my targets above... the mining index target is testing the all-time highs or getting close to them. Silver's target is around 40, though that's always a tough call to make.

And just so nobody starts claiming someone is manipulating the gold market: everything needs to align. Stocks and probably oil need to hit their floors first so they can all climb together. There's a better chance that oil bottomed out today, while the S&P might still need a tiny bit more room to fall.

vividgull10 said:Is there an actual formula behind these percentages, or are you just taking wild guesses?

Roughly speaking, yes. If you aren't a pro trader, it’s easier to just lay out what I expect to happen. Most people buy physical assets and look for dips to jump in. That’s why I wrote that this bottom will be higher by springtime.

As for gold, you need to wait for the S&P 500 to hit rock bottom—maybe today, or more likely in a day or two—around 1370.

Probably just the last few death rattles from the King ($) before he gets dethroned. Sitting at 80.918... honestly, I doubt it’ll even touch 81. This is really just a temporary hiccup for the George Washington.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:What even is this "golden bug" nonsense—some kind of manufactured crisis, maybe?😂?

😁

Just got more proof this morning: gold is already sitting above last week's peak ($1,727). In my book, there's about a 90% chance we hit $1,900 next—basically a sure thing at this point. As for hitting $2,000? I'd put those odds at maybe 60%. We'll likely see the peak sometime in February. After that, expect a correction. It’ll probably be a bit sharper than the current one because once the Dollar gets squeezed hard enough, it's going to have to fight its way back. When we hit bottom this spring, it won't be down here; it'll be higher than this current floor (which is at $1,673)—I'm thinking closer to $1,750.

We could use a little more confirmation first. If gold stays north of $1,700, we’re looking good... but if silver fails to hold above $31, we might just see another leg down toward the $1,660 mark.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Do you guys honestly think we might see a run toward silver and gold starting as early as tomorrow or the day after?

So far, so good. That 75 WMA finally halted the slide. As far as I can tell, we’ve hit bottom—though with these elections coming up, anything can happen. Still, I wouldn't bet on a sudden pivot just yet.

Ashley Thompson10 said:It feels like we’ve finally hit rock bottom with silver these days.

Gold is king.

This company is a beast. I’m definitely picking some up next week—maybe Friday, though Tuesday would probably be the sweet spot—but honestly, any percentage works. Sure, they’ve had their fair share of rough patches in the past, but that’s just the price you pay for holding individual stocks. At the end of the day, it’s much smarter to hold SLW than to gamble on single mining stocks. SIL is also a solid play if you want a silver miners bundle. We saw all too well with Barrick Gold why betting on one miner at a time is a massive risk.

vividgull10 said:Whoa, slow down there... what "my 84"? 🙂

As far as I'm concerned, it could hit 184 or it could tank to 0.84. All I care about is volatility. I just mentioned it as a possibility; it wasn't some crazy prediction or wishful thinking on my part.

I don't play those games. As long as there's movement, I'm happy, regardless of the direction.🙂

Theoretically, anything can happen. But it's funny how this crowd always shows up whenever a major bottom is forming, constantly talking about "possibilities" that favor a sell-off. To me, that’s a massive signal that the bottom is right around the corner. All systems go. So far, nobody here is actually claiming the gold bull run is dead or that we're heading back to $1500.

If you ask me, the correction wrapped up back in December 2011. After that, we sat through a long consolidation phase where it wasn't even clear if the May bottom would hold above $1523 (it hit $1526 in May). That sideways movement could have dragged on forever, but then Ben stepped in with Quantitative Easing. Now, the next big wave is finally kicking off—it started around May 16, 2012, and it's starting to pick up steam.

vividgull10 said:It’s just as common to find people screaming that the Dollar is dead every single time the USDX sees a minor pullback.
people 😉

Even if it actually "dies," Quantitative Easing is an objective reality right now. It might be done for, say, the next year and a half at least. If we actually hit your target of 84, maybe I'll reconsider... but honestly, I don't think we're even seeing 82 anytime soon.

lonehawk5 said:long 695 Dollar

Bold move, considering it’s only been dropping for a few minutes.