Griffin's already sitting on 10, and the LA Clippers have things totally under control. The only thing that’s gonna mess everything up for me is if Dwight Howard drops 31 points—just one guy like that can ruin the whole vibe.
Bosh is out injured, so I guess I’m still sticking with my pick for Miami. Honestly, I think Haslem can step up and fill that void pretty well, especially when it comes to the defensive end.
I'm totally down for this thread—who else wants to just go wild and drop some picks without all the deep-dive analysis? Just throw them in the chat if you're feeling it!
James Taylor3 said:Just remember how the Miami Heat played during their last Western Conference tour—they were dropping games to basically anyone, including teams like the Golden State Warriors and similar crews.
And honestly, don't count the Portland Trail Blazers out just yet in these kinds of home derbies, even if they're playing pretty rough right now. 😁
Maybe you should push back your "retirement" from betting by one day and put some money on Portland. 🤣 I mean, I feel like the Heat look way better now than they did a couple of months ago, whereas Portland is playing seriously bad. I kept hoping that a few bad outings were just a fluke, but this losing streak just keeps going and going. Still, we can't really hold that game against them against the Spurs, since Gregg Popovich was definitely coasting there.
Portland Trail Blazers - Miami Heat odds 1.50 9/10 Yesterday, the one analysis I missed was calling a Portland win over Denver, but like I mentioned there, I mostly played that because of all those injuries hitting the Nuggets, not necessarily because I thought Portland was playing out of their minds. At the start of the season, they were such a massive surprise, just cruising to wins with really solid play. Lately, though, things have gone downhill fast, and they finally fell out of the Playoff hunt. If they don't step it up, making the postseason in this West is going to be an uphill battle. They aren't dealing with much of an injury bug either, though I guess Kurt Thomas is a bit of a question mark. On the flip side, the Miami Heat are on this incredible 8-game tear, and game after game, they’re proving they're the real deal for the title. They've been dismantling opponents pretty easily, which is exactly what you'd expect from that big trio once they got their rhythm down; I guess they just needed a season to gel. LeBron James is playing better than ever, leaning more on those drives to the rim, and he's looking unstoppable. Even when he isn't dropping a triple-double, he's still chipping in with assists and boards every single night. Dwyane Wade is back from injury and has been providing huge plays—he might take an extra shot here and there, but hey, who can blame a superstar like him? Chris Bosh is looking perfect from mid-range and has even started knocking down threes; he gets way more aggressive when one of the other two isn't scoring, and he's doing his job perfectly. Mario Chalmers is consistently hitting open threes, while Udonis Haslem and Shane Miller are those gritty guys off the bench that the Heat really missed last season. And we can't forget Shane Battier, who adds a whole new dimension to this squad on defense—he's honestly one of the best defenders in the league, and he can definitely knock down a three when he gets hot. Portland has been looking pretty miserable lately, while the Heat just seem to get stronger and crazier every single night.
Sacramento Kings - LA Clippers odds 1.60 7/10 Blake Griffin over 22.5 odds 1.85 4/10 The Kings are easily one of the weakest teams in the league, and probably have the worst defense around. I don't think I even need to point out the million times people have said here that they are bottom-tier when it comes to protecting the paint. Knowing how bad the Kings' defense is, I really think the Clippers are going to lean heavily on Blake Griffin tonight. If he can just stay efficient around the rim, I don't see why the over wouldn't hit. The Clippers did drop one to the Timberwolves, but I'm sure Chris Paul and the rest of the crew are hungry to push hard through the end of the season to secure a better seed. I'm guessing they're eyeing that second spot, since jumping ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder feels like a tall order. As for the Kings, they probably already know their playoff hopes are basically dead, so they're likely just playing for pride now. Honestly, if they can just keep their arena in Sacramento filled, I guess that's a win for them.
It’s not like I’m unhappy with how things turned out—I think I distributed the roles pretty well—but man, these Trail Blazers just aren't going to take down Denver without Nene, Danilo Gallinari, and Rudy Fernandez.
Philadelphia vs. Oklahoma City, odds 1.65 7/10 Kevin Durant under 27.5, odds 1.85 5/10 One day you're rooting for Phila, the next day you're betting against them—that’s just life when you're into gambling, I guess. A lot of people think Phila is the surprise package this season, but there’s a bit of a catch: they haven't really looked sharp against teams with winning records. OKC is sitting at the top of the league right now, so this is a massive opportunity for them to prove something, though I have my doubts about Phila pulling it off. I don't doubt Iggy for a second that he'll do a solid job on Durant, since he's easily one of the best defenders in the league, but the real question is how much you can actually shut down a player like that. Still, if he isn't facing Iggy, the under is basically out of the question. Maybe KD is still riding that All-Star and MVP high, or maybe he's just feeling a little gassed because he's been playing more minutes than anyone else lately. Even if Iggy manages to stifle KD, you still have to worry about Westbrook. Despite how much the ball has been hogged lately, his play has actually been getting better; his shooting percentage is up, and he's proving he's arguably the second-best force in the West behind KD. Plus, with Harden coming off the bench, he's definitely the frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year. Down in the paint, Ibaka and Perkins are two absolute monsters who I assume will just suffocate brand. Phila has struggled big time this season against Western Conference teams, especially the ones fighting for a playoff spot, so I suspect that trend might just continue against the hottest team in the West. Denver Nuggets vs. Portland TrailBlazers, odds 1.82 4/10 Portland has been pretty rough on the road this season. After a great start, they've hit a bunch of bumps, and they've got a massive uphill battle ahead of them over the next two months to make the playoffs, but that's not why I'm passing on this bet. How can you take this matchup when Gallinari is out, and we're looking at question marks for Lawson, Rudy, and Nen? If any of those three actually suit up, they probably won't be at 100%, and even though Denver is known for having a deep bench, I just don't have much faith in Brewer, Andersen, Koufos, and the rest of the crew. As for the Blazers, Matthews is a question mark too, but whatever, I'll leave it be.😁
Nicholas Chase34 said:🤦 total disaster. It was clearly a trap because the defense wasn't even playing like they did in previous games 🙂 🙂
bome, we got ourselves a real show tonight. I guess we'll be waiting a long time before either of these two teams puts on an offensive clinic like that again.
wiredcanyon39 said:Detroit Pistons - Philadelphia 76ers over 210.5 @ 1.50 8/10 Dallas Mavericks - New Jersey Nets over 188.5 @ 1.85 5/10 Dirk Nowitzki over 24.5 @ 1.85 4/10
The 76ers were an absolute breeze, easy money. I actually played Dirk at 23.5 on my Hat Trick app, but man, he totally screwed me over by missing the over by just 4 points. What a joke.
My bad on that mix-up regarding the Dallas Mavericks, but honestly, I’m still leaning towards the over—as soon as I saw those odds, I was pretty much sold.
James Taylor3 said:Hey man, what’s the deal with how many points the Dallas Mavericks are actually giving up? I know they're supposed to be one of the elite defensive units this season, so I went looking for the stats—looks like they're only allowing about 90.82 points per game. 🤷
Maybe if you're looking at the matchup between the Detroit Pistons and the Philadelphia 76ers, there's some value in taking the 76ers at 1.50. I mean, it's probably a solid play, but who knows? Things change fast in this league. Just my two cents. 8/10 The 76ers have been looking absolutely locked in defensively this season—seriously, they’re easily one of the elite squads in the league right now when it comes to stopping people. It feels like whenever they face anyone on paper who isn't a heavy hitter, they just handle business pretty effortlessly. On the flip side, Detroit is struggling big time lately. They’ve got some major issues, especially with Will Bynum being listed as probable tonight given his injury situation. There's also some uncertainty around whether Elton Brand will suit up, but I guess there's a decent chance he might actually play. Honestly, though, Iggy is playing out of his mind right now; he's basically a defensive nightmare for whoever he's guarding. He's been killing it on offense too, usually dropping around 12 points and constantly hovering right on the edge of a triple-double. Since Andre Iguodala was the only one from this group making an All-Star appearance, I don't think fatigue is going to be much of an issue for the rotation. Philly is finally heading back home after a rough road trip through the West where things went sideways, but I've got a feeling they’re going to get back in the win column tonight.
I’m looking at the Dallas Mavericks vs. New Jersey Nets matchup, specifically thinking about that Over 188.5 line sitting at 1.85. Honestly, I feel like we might see some serious scoring here. Both teams have enough offensive firepower that if they get into a rhythm early, this could easily blow past that number. I guess it depends on how the pace settles, but I'm leaning towards a high-scoring affair. Maybe it's a bit of a gamble, but I'm feeling optimistic about the total points. 5/10 I’m thinking about taking the plunge on Dirk Nowitzki over 24.5 points at 1.85. I mean, honestly, he's been looking pretty lethal lately, so maybe it's a solid play? I guess we'll see if the magic is still there tonight. 4/10 The Nets are finally starting to look like a real team, which is a massive change from how they looked at the start of the season. I mean, watching Deron Williams play is just pure talent on display right now. And Morrow? He’s just casually draining threes like it’s nothing. Plus, having Brook Lopez back in the lineup is huge for them. This Nets squad definitely has enough firepower to put up around 100 points, but man, their defense is a total mess—they just give up way too many buckets. On the other side, Dallas is finally finding their rhythm, mostly because Dirkules is absolutely cooking. He’s playing like he did during last year's playoffs, and he's been consistently going over his scoring lines these past few games. Now, there's a bit of a question mark for tonight since Kris Humphries might not be available, and without him to help shadow Dirk alongside Brook, things could get dicey. There's a pretty good chance the Mavs will pull off another win using those wings. The biggest issue for Dallas is that the roster is getting pretty old; they really need a generational shift soon. As for this season, they’re offensively aggressive, averaging about 99 points per game while giving up roughly 97. I went with these picks because the lines feel a little low to me—I'm leaning toward the over for the total game score.
So, I went out on single bets for George and Williams. If Williams pulls it off, I’ve doubled my stake, but if George takes it, I'm looking at a 1.5x payout.
The odds on the Orlando Magic are already tanking. I jumped in when they were at 1.80, but now they've dropped down to 1.60... ugh, I guess I just got lucky timing on that one.
Man, the Phoenix Suns absolutely wrecked me yesterday. But hey, since today is the last night before the break, I might as well recap. My bankroll is up four times what it was when I started this NBA run, so I’m feeling pretty damn good about it. I guess I hit a bit of a rough patch recently, but overall, the profit is looking solid. Tonight, I'm putting a small stake on the Orlando Magic and maybe digging around for one more little play just to keep things moving. Once we get through the All-Star break, though, things are getting serious.
Knicks 1 1.50 Thunder 1.30 @1.95 So, after seeing that Joe Johnson and maybe Deron Williams are out, I’m leaning towards taking the Knicks against the Hawks, especially since they haven't looked great on the road lately.
The Spurs are absolutely tearing it up lately. They've been on this massive tear, riding an 11-game winning streak which, I guess, is the longest run we've seen all season. This hot streak has vaulted them right up to 2nd in the West, just trailing behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. Their last win was a total nail-biter, too—they barely managed to scrape past the LA Clippers. Looking back at those 11 wins, they actually cleared this specific line 10 times; the only outlier was when they played Memphis. It seems like most of these Western Conference teams are leaning heavily into the "over" this year. Everything is just played so fast and looks so flashy, which is probably why everyone is glued to the West more than the East lately. Portland plays with that same high-octane energy, especially at home where they put up huge numbers but, uh, give up plenty too. Honestly, I just have to take the over here because, in my opinion, a 91.5 margin feels way too low—it's probably a 5 or 6 point difference easily.
👍 Bill Povich almost blew it by resting his players