Posts by Timothy Nelson5

Joshua Myers432 said:Look, this isn't about some grand pro-Russian propaganda machine or "Russophiles"—there's probably one in a thousand of those people left in the West, and frankly, the government should probably just provide them with psychiatric help. If you actually put Russia ahead of the West, you belong in a mental ward.

The reality here is much simpler: it's about pure self-interest. Westerners are masters at looking out for their own skin. We'll see if they actually hold the line.

In about 80% of cases, Westerners are just completely clueless.
They just swallow whatever the ruling establishment and their whole fake news, disinformation-industrial complex serves up on a silver platter.
If that weren't the case, they wouldn't be listening to those green alarmists, they wouldn't let a senile Biden gut the growth of American LNG production and exports, they wouldn't have allowed that senseless, premature shutdown of nuclear plants in Germany, and so on...

Because, honestly, all of those moves basically gave Putin the green light for this aggressive war.

I mean, you aren't exactly looking out for your own interests if you're busy shooting yourself in the foot.

analogbear5 said:People living in occupied territories who took the offer of Russian citizenship are now being ordered to sign up for military service: Melitopol

Judin’s crew is really tight-knit... I guess.

Kate Cook27 said:I guess you could look at it that way—that Russians are just Ukrainians who got conned 😁 😁.

Not exactly misled... more like "denazified," if you believe the rhetoric.
🤣

If you listen to all that nonsense coming out of Putin right before the war broke out...

Joshua Myers432 said:That’s the exact same thing Afghans said, and before them, the South Vietnamese. ☕

Maybe it wouldn't hurt you to brush up on some basic historical facts.

In Afghanistan, the mujahideen and the Taliban didn't actually topple the local regime until after the Soviet Union or the West had completely withdrawn their military presence from Afghanistan and stopped providing active combat support.

Then there was Vietnam, where the war fought by American forces ended with a de facto armistice dictated by the USA.
The US military pulled out entirely.
They even celebrated V-E Day.
Afterward, a new US administration essentially abandoned South Vietnam, tossing aside all previous guarantees and leaving them wide open to a fresh, aggressive invasion from the north.

So, I guess your arguments are just... off base. Completely misses the mark.

With this whole situation in Ukraine, we aren't talking about some remote mountain wasteland or a jungle ten thousand miles away. This is a nation serving as a buffer zone between NATO and a fascist Russia.
It’s in the strategic interest of NATO nations—and others, like Japan—to see Russian aggression broken. Because if it isn't, then that aggression starts threatening them directly.
That's why I don't see much chance of this support for Ukraine drying up, at least not as long as the fascist aggression against Ukraine continues.

dustyfalcon122 said:Man, you really cracked me up.
Seriously, this whole thing has turned into one of those trashy Hollywood movies.

I was watching some Monty Python sketches the other day, and I couldn't help but think... reality has basically just overtaken most of their comedy at this point.

Jessica Peterson2 said:Putin's media outlets are constantly churning out these ecstatic little prophecies claiming Europeans are going to be shivering in frozen apartments next winter because they've lost access to Russian gas. It’s quite a spectacle, really. Yet, curiously enough, they don't seem to give a single damn about the fact that 40% of rural households and 30% of urban homes across the entirety of Russia have absolutely no access to gas pipelines —if they ever did at all. 🤷

Actually, it feels kind of paradoxical. Most of those people without any connection to a gas grid, whether they are in Russia or the EU, don't really sweat the heating situation that much... most of them just rely on wood. And I suppose decent heads of households buy up their firewood in the spring so they have enough stashed away for the winter.

Joshua Myers432 said:Sanctioning Russian gas and oil is pure idiocy because, from day one, it’s been hurting us more than them. Of course, when I pointed this out two months ago, I was met with some colorful insults from financially illiterate and uneducated forum users who substitute a lack of logic and intelligence with sheer rudeness.

I don't even feel like gloating; it would be like trying to explain basic addition to a toddler. At this point, I'm just supposed to be satisfied that I was right. 🤦

I suppose you have to look at the bigger picture here, since the definitions of 'us' and 'them' are actually quite fluid.

For the Globalist cabal and their band of useless hangers-on, this energy price chaos is basically a godsend.

The Globalists don't give a damn about the struggles of the common person; they find a way to profit from everything in the end, anyway.
As for those hangers-on... well, they fall into that 95% category of idle chatterboxes who haven't actually contributed anything useful to society. You won't be the one footing the bill for these high energy prices, because they’re mostly government bureaucrats, students, or various "free spirits"—all of whom tend to live off someone else's hard work.

urbanotter said:I honestly don't know what they'd say, but whether these transfers are happening ship-to-ship or are fully covered by insurance, people seem to stay quiet about it.

I feel like I have to repeat myself constantly: ship-to-ship transfer in open water is actually a standard industry practice. It happens whenever a vessel's draft is too deep to safely reach an unloading terminal, or when they need to top off their cargo because the receiving terminal has shallow waters that prevent full loading.

We see this quite often when larger vessels enter the Mississippi; the distances to the bottom are significant because silt and sediment buildup isn't always cleared away promptly.

It's unlikely we'll see much "topping off" in terms of blending, mainly because refineries are specifically calibrated to process crude from certain regions; they aren't designed to just swallow any Russian or Arabian crude that comes their way.
India has massive refining capacity at Sika, and it's highly probable that they can process Russian crude alongside the Arabian oil they typically handle.

Once those crude oils are processed into derivatives, I suspect it becomes much more difficult to track exactly which source the distilled products originally came from.
Since India hasn't imposed any sanctions, they are importing and refining Russian oil without facing any repercussions.

Do I really have to keep reminding everyone that the sanctions against Russia were primarily driven by the USA and its allies, which represents only about 20% of the countries in the world?

For this specific debate regarding sanctions, I suppose that isn't even the main issue.

The real point—if there is one—is that this won't become some massive, widespread loophole for dodging sanctions. I mean, it probably won't, assuming the sanctions are actually enforced.
Will some random tanker somewhere deliver some sort of 'blend' that's mostly Russian crude? Probably. But I guess it'll just be isolated incidents here and there.

Do we really need a constant reminder that the sanctions on Russia were only pushed by the USA and its allies, which is roughly 20% of the world?

Well, those 20% of countries actually account for over 65% of the global economy, and so far, they've been importing more than 80% of Russian exports.

In reality, more than half of the countries at the bottom of that list don't even make up 2% of the world's total GDP combined. Most of them are either completely insignificant on a global scale or entirely dependent on much larger nations.

Nancy Howard4 said:I’ve finally realized that in America, the real winners are the ones who play dumb when it comes to the law
I was walking past some apartment complexes recently and saw how everyone just takes it upon themselves to enclose their balconies with vinyl windows or turn them into extra rooms and stuff
And you know what the best part is? NOBODY CAN DO A DAMN THING ABOUT IT because you'd have to sue the entire building—which is everyone, since they all did the exact same thing—plus the architect who designed the whole layout, and honestly, these hideous modifications totally wreck the original vision of the project, and then you'd need some bureaucrat from City Hall to actually get off their lazy butt, show up at the property with the occupancy permit and the original blueprints, confirm that every single person is breaking the rules, and then somehow sue every living soul involved in those renovations
BUT that’s never going to happen, so you might as well just grab a sledgehammer, go to town on that wall, and do whatever you want because you only live once
Once you're the first one to pull it off, the rest of the whole building will follow suit with the exact same plans

The issue actually started ages ago, I think. The people drafting these laws—and the ones doing it now—are intentionally designing the legal procedures so that folks end up moving out of state before they can ever actually get anything built legally.

Anthony Hill5 said:Automobile sales in Russia have plummeted by a staggering 78% during the fourth month, marking what is quite possibly the most catastrophic decline in automotive sales since record-keeping even began.

To put this collapse into perspective, a mere 32,706 vehicles were sold, whereas during the same period last year, the market saw a substantial 151,964 units move off the lots.

Even more telling is the situation at Ford, which was forced into a collective annual shutdown from April through late December simply because they couldn't get their hands on necessary production parts; consequently, they managed to sell only 8,506 vehicles, also suffering a massive 78% drop in sales.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/auto/news/2...v-rossii-upali

I guess sanctions take some time to really hit their stride.
The fallout usually lingers for years after the measures are even lifted.

It seems to me that the people who are most vocal at first about how sanctions won't matter much... they're usually the exact same ones whining the loudest once the reality sets in.
In my experience, those tend to be the most easily led sheep.

Noah Martin2 said:@Putin apologists and all you other doom-mongers obsessed with cheap energy
It isn’t as simple as just "cheaper energy" once you factor in the geopolitical fallout. Of course we want lower prices—honestly, how do you even envision that working when crude is sitting at $105 a barrel and diesel is hitting $4.50 a gallon? What exactly is your logic there?
As for your gas alternatives... I have a wood stove in my garage. Look, I get it—it's a hassle, it's dirty, and it doesn't offer the luxury of natural gas—but thanks for the concern, I think I'll manage.
The scope of this issue is far too broad to boil down to such a simplistic question. Even Biden hit the nail on the head when he noted that while the war in Ukraine is expensive, the alternative would be exponentially more costly.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy using Reddit

What do Putin fans and concern trolls have to do with any of this...

Energy prices started climbing the very first day of Biden's term, and frankly, he and his band of green-agenda zealots are the ones to blame here.

It's responsible for the energy spikes, the inflation, and by extension, this whole war in Ukraine.

You talk about alternatives to gas... well, I've got a wood stove in my garage. I'll admit, it's a hassle, it's messy, and it definitely doesn't have the convenience of natural gas, but thanks for the concern—I'll manage.

Do you actually have enough wood on hand? I do—enough for the next few winters—plus I own my own woods...

Do you really think the price of firewood won't climb too?

So, the grandmaster Biden was right to say that while the war in Ukraine is expensive, the alternative would be exponentially more costly.

Biden isn't some grandmaster; he's just a senile wreck who needs constant supervision. Half the time, I don't even think he knows where he is.

Nathan Evans78 said:Is that what they call a total embargo—when Shell suddenly stops taking 49% of their Ural supply just to slap a "Made in the US" sticker on it instead? 🤣

Why only 49%? I mean, I guess there’s a reason, but it feels... off. Maybe it's just how the numbers shake out, or maybe we aren't seeing the full picture. I don't know. It's hard to say for sure without more context, really.

The honey they’re stocking on the shelves at the local grocery stores lately... I don't know. It just doesn't seem right. You look at those bright, shiny jars, and you think you're getting the real deal, but I guess there's a good chance it's mostly just corn syrup masquerading as something natural. It makes me wonder about all these massive food conglomerates and how much they actually prioritize quality over profit margins. Maybe I'm being too cynical, but when everything is mass-produced and processed to death, you start to lose faith in the label. It's all just part of that endless cycle of convenience replacing actual substance, I suppose. $12 That "European Union" blend you're talking about? I guess it’s mostly just 90% plus some mass-produced junk from China mixed with a tiny bit of actual honey. Maybe.

If we can play around with honey, I suppose there’s no reason we couldn't do the same with oil... maybe.

Carl Lee27 said:It looks like the Phoenix Ghost is actually a massive step up from what we were seeing before:
- It can take off vertically, which is huge
- We're talking about a 6-hour flight time—compare that to just 40 minutes for the Switchblade 600 and you see why this matters so much
- It’s got infrared sensors, so it can handle business even in total darkness
- And it's fully capable of taking out medium armored ground targets
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...vCaejZB2w&s=19

This seems to be a response to those issues I was mentioning earlier. I guess.

The Ukrainians just don't have the reach right now to hit airfields or logistics hubs deep within the Russian rear. It’s a bit of a problem, I guess... especially since that kind of long-range strike capability is exactly what NATO strategy has always leaned on. Maybe there's a way around it, but for now, they're stuck.

This drone, if it actually manages to hit speeds of... I don't know, maybe around that mark? It changes things. I guess. It’s hard to say for sure without more data, but then again, we're always waiting on more data, aren't we? Maybe. 62 miles Maybe an hour, though I suppose we’re looking at a six-hour flight. Or something like that. I guess. It’s possible they could be targeting objectives as far out as 500 miles... I guess. Maybe. It feels like we're constantly guessing at the reach of these things.373 miles Looking at the Russian side of things... I guess it’s mostly about the aircraft sitting on their airfields and the rail lines, right? Maybe just focusing on those planes at the bases and the trains. That seems to be where the real movement is happening. I guess you have to wonder who exactly is handling the logistics for the Russian forces—specifically regarding their fuel and ammo resupply. It’s a massive operation, really. I mean, moving that much weight across contested territory isn't exactly a walk in the park. Maybe it's specialized units, maybe it's local contractors... I don't know. It's hard to say for sure without seeing the actual supply lines, but someone has to do the heavy lifting.

Either one could be wiped out pretty easily, I suppose. It’s all quite fragile, really. It’s essentially a warhead designed specifically to take out medium-armored ground targets. I guess you could say it's built for that exact purpose. Maybe.

Nicole Diaz said:Fine, let them, but they shouldn't be chasing us around with sirens blaring like we're mass murderers or terrorists...

I used a sarcastic smiley on the forum for that one. Personally, I’d be perfectly polite with the police—very Vienna School.

Does anyone know if there's actually a specific clause in the law that forbids this kind of behavior? Because if it isn't explicitly banned, then technically anything goes.

Kid, maybe you should just pipe down and use your head for once.

Most accidents, drunk driving, public disturbances, fights, murders—all that stuff—happens exactly at the times and places where you guys get pulled over and questioned. And the ones doing it? Usually young, cocky guys just like you.
So, I don't really see anything wrong with how those officers are handling things.

Now, if they're pulling you out of a car in broad daylight just to check your ID without cause—well, they’d need a decent justification for that, especially if it becomes a pattern.

And honestly, with that aggressive, argumentative attitude toward the cops in those situations, you're probably just going to encourage them to be even stricter and follow every single procedure to the letter...

wiredseal7 said:And you're just cherry-picking the parts that suit your narrative.
The first paragraph clearly states:

Quote : The Turkish government announced today that IT is closing The Bosphorus Strait to The passage of military vessels fra All countries , although ships based in The Black Sea, such as those from Russia or Ukraine, will still be allowed to return to their ports , in application of The Montreux Convention.

It's actually a bit different here:

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...s-to-warships/
“When Turkey is not a belligerent in the conflict, it has the authority to restrict the passage of the warring states’ warships across the straits. If the warship is returning to its base in the Black Sea, the passage is not closed. We adhere to the Montreux rules. All governments, riparian and non-riparian, were warned not to send warships across the straits.”

Fine, they "warned" them—let's call it what it is—but the message is loud and clear for anyone thinking about sending anything through.

1. Turkey is a member of NATO.
They aren't some neutral bystander.

2. Most of Turkey's grain needs come from imports from Ukraine.

3. Russia has blocked exports from Ukraine, mining sea lanes and letting mines drift around just to mess with shipping traffic.

4. Russia guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity, along with the USA and the UK (the Budapest Memorandum).

etc., etc.

So many agreements have been broken already; I don't really see why Turkey should feel obligated to follow that specific agreement to the letter now—especially since they can always get creative with how they interpret it.

If the Kuznetsov is considered a "missile cruiser," then an Arleigh Burke fleet could just as easily be called a fleet of missile corvettes...

🍿

wiredseal7 said:NATO ships can't just flood the Black Sea—Turkey has the Bosphorus closed to all warships under the Montreux Convention.

I'm skeptical about the Growler plan, too. Where they're positioned puts them maybe 400311 miles+ miles from the closest front in Donbas, and jamming intensity drops off fast as you get further away. If we start seeing fighting for Odessa or new battles near Mykolaiv, then maybe it makes sense.

I mean, do you really think those rules will hold if the Russian military starts using chemical agents or dumping massive amounts of white phosphorus... or something even worse? I guess we'll see.

I have my doubts about the Growlers, too. They're operating maybe 400-311 miles+ miles from the nearest front line in Donbas, and electronic warfare interference tends to drop off by the square of the distance.

If the Russians darken western Ukraine, they might actually give the Ukrainian Air Force a chance to take off and fly for the first 62 miles minutes in relative safety.
And if they start creating a ton of fake takeoff patterns, the Russians won't be able to tell if an actual strike is coming or not... which matters. Plus, it helps the drones. They're already hard to spot, and at those distances, even a weak signal might be enough...
It isn't just about the radar, though.
The comms jamming, the GPS interference... it's complicated.

wanderingmaker3 said:What's the range on a Growler?
Or more specifically, how far does their electronic jamming reach?
I can't seem to find the answer.

Well, you probably won't find it anywhere.

Like wiredseal7 mentioned once, I guess the jamming strength just drops off by the square of the distance...

darkrider55 said:Honestly, an air strike version doesn't make much sense here because their air defense is just way too heavy, so the second option is probably our best bet.

We’ll just have to wait and see how impenetrable that Russian air defense actually is.

Word is the Americans are prepping an unprecedented level of electronic warfare for the upcoming fight in Ukraine. Maybe they'll have Growlers patrolling Romanian airspace and over the Black Sea, staying out of Ukrainian territory... And if NATO starts beefing up the fleet in the Black Sea on top of all that...

It’s looking more and more likely that we'll see those Harpoons heading to Ukraine.
I wonder if Boris Johnson ever brought up the idea during one of his talks with Zelenskyy... maybe.

Andrew Miller102 said:It’s the classic media boomerang—the idea that we have to announce every single shipment just to prove to someone that we actually sent the weapons.The Slovaks sent over some S-300s for Ukraine, but if these early reports are right, the Russians managed to wipe out the entire shipment.☕

https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...ng-to-ukraine/

https://twitter.com/KingKong9888/sta...05419027857409

🤔
If those preliminary reports are even remotely accurate, the Russians have already knocked out more tanks than the Ukrainians actually had when this whole thing started.

Soon enough, you'll see Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia sending over thousands of tanks too.

🙂