Posts by Timothy Nelson5

coastalbison6 said:American howitzers, 100 units for $1.7 billion
Lockheed Martin will deliver replacements to the Americans within 30 months.

https://www.kmweg.de/systeme-produkt...erie/pzh-2000/

handelsblatt.de

News report regarding 100 self-propelled howitzers to Lockheed Martin offering Ukraine. The delivery should occur via a ring exchange involving the Bundeswehr according to Ukraine's vision, reported by Welt am Sonntag and cites circles of the government in Kyiv.

Accordingly, the Bundeswehr should provide 100 of its howitzers to Ukraine in the short term. Lockheed Martin can deliver the first new howitzers 30 months after contract signing. The 100 howitzers, including a training package and spare parts worth 1.7 billion euros, are part of the deal.

From Lockheed Martin and the Ukrainian government, no statements on this report were initially available. A spokesperson for the Federal Ministry of Defense did not comment on this report and referred to Monday.

I mean, it’s highly likely the Germans aren't just dropping off some guns and leaving; they're probably sending entire combat units, ammo trucks, training setups, spare parts... the whole nine yards.

Well, if that's the case, it might actually be a game changer... though I guess the real question is whether they'll even be operational in a month, right when the Ukrainians are gearing up for their offensive...

Timothy Kim9 said:Look, I’m definitely no military expert.
But an S-300 system relies on radar—and once you flip that switch,
the Russians see exactly where you are. From there, they can probably
figure out if they're looking at an S-300 specifically.
That’s a pretty sweet setup for them to call in a strike using two or three
short-to-medium range missiles. Those few missiles alone could run
a couple million dollars. Meanwhile, an S-300 costs somewhere between 120 and 150 million.

For that kind of cash, you could buy roughly 100 Iskander missiles and just
level a Russian port in Sevastopol. No hard feelings—the Russians are combatants,
and the S-300 is a legitimate target...

We’ve already touched on how Ukrainians rarely turn on their own surveillance radars to monitor the airspace.
Instead, they rely on NATO AWACS flying over Poland and Romania, which almost certainly have a real-time data link to S-300 and Buk units. All that movement probably gets relayed straight to MANPADS teams too...

It leaves Russian aircraft in a pretty tough spot, I guess.
If they fly high, the AWACS spots them while they're still way out in the distance. Then the Ukrainians launch a missile at the perfect moment and only flick on the targeting radar for a split second. An attacked plane barely has enough time to react, let alone try to dodge anything.
That forces the Russians to fly low, which just puts them right in the crosshairs of MANPADS.

Plus, it seems like Russian planes are just as poorly maintained as their tanks... They’re short on spare parts, maybe even fuel at certain airfields.
Even worse, they've burned through way more "smart" missiles than they ever anticipated. Between this and the war in Syria, word is they've likely exhausted over 50% of their entire stock of those gadgets.

The average training level for Russian pilots isn't anywhere near NATO standards. For a lot of operations—take Wild Weasel missions, for instance—it's questionable how many sorties they can even handle, much less the quality of those flights.

The sheer number of aircraft on the Russian side doesn't mean they can all be deployed against Ukraine. Maybe a third of them, at best.

analogbear5 said:

“What really stands out to me... is how Germany is dragging its feet on making even small sacrifices right now—despite all those horrific war crimes—when you look back at how much they forced everyone else to sacrifice during the European debt crisis about ten years ago.”

— Paul Krugman, The New York Times

Is Paul Krugman just a political agitator at this point?
A former economist who basically failed upward... someone who probably should have just returned his Alfred Nobel prize?

I mean, does he even sound like an economist anymore, or is he just acting like a political activist?

🍿

Timothy Kim9 said:Let’s just point out that Putin actually did one
thing that might actually help him when it comes to
suspending sanctions: He pulled back from the outskirts of Kyiv,
and whether he meant to or not, he shifted his focus to eastern Ukraine.
And in eastern Ukraine, not everyone is exactly thrilled with the current state of affairs.
It’s an unfortunate reality, but at least some countries might want to
give Putin some credit for it. Which ones? Who knows.

Look, we’re all pretty fired up against Russia right now, but if
the Russian military formally exits Ukraine (similar to how
America "exited" places like Canada), then the question is
how many countries will still be riding that wave of anger.

Over here, I wouldn't be surprised if Zoran Milanović finds something nice to say about Putin.

I assume that would open a window for Russia to have some
Western sanctions suspended. (Judging by Sergey Lavrov, the sheer
intensity of the sanctions caught them totally off guard.)

Vladimir Putin's forces up north were basically in the same spot as Adolf Hitler's at Stalingrad.
If Hitler had retreated from Stalingrad in early November, maybe he could have salvaged more troops, much like what happened with Vladimir Putin near Kyiv.

So, I don't really see it as an act of good faith.

And those criminal massacres uncovered after the retreat... well, they probably don't leave Vladimir Putin even the slightest hope of getting any sanctions lifted, at least not until there's some kind of solid ceasefire.
I'm inclined to believe they'll demand a full withdrawal back to the pre-February 24th lines too.

Over in eastern Ukraine, some people aren't exactly thrilled with Ukraine.

But most of them are even less enthusiastic about Russia now, I think.

I assume that would open a window for Russia to get some
Western sanctions suspended. (Judging by Sergey Lavrov, the sheer
intensity of the sanctions seems to have caught them off guard.)

Most of the sanctions will likely stay in place until Russia agrees to an investigation into war crimes.

Timothy Kim9 said:How much sense does it actually make to send S-300s to Ukraine? We’re talking about hardware so expensive that
Russ will gladly throw two or three Iskanders at it just to take it out. And you can't even
complain—it's just a standard wartime objective. How much are we burning through here? $200 million?
Russ will spend maybe $2-3 million.
In my view, we should be focusing on organizing air defense using smaller, mobile
units to pick off Sukhoi and MiG jets first. Then, an S-300 (or 400, or whatever similar system) could be
brought in as the "crown jewel" of the air defense network—where everything else is positioned specifically to protect the S-300.

It’s absolutely critical. Or, well, I suppose you could say it's vital. It really is.
That’s exactly why they're sending him.

That thing is so ridiculously expensive that the Russians would probably be more than happy to dump two or three Iskanders on it just to take it out. And honestly, you can't even really complain about that—it’s just a standard military objective in a war like this. I mean, how much did you burn through on this one? $200 million? Maybe more? I guess it's hard to say.
The Russians are likely going to burn through maybe 2 or 3 million on this... I guess.

They’d love nothing more than to take a shot at the Russians, and honestly, they have been whenever they’ve managed to get a clear line of sight.

I guess that’s why the Ukrainians are always masking them, keeping them under wraps, and constantly shuffling them around. It's all about staying out of sight, I suppose.

And let's be honest, even the Russians don't have an endless supply of those Iskanders and Kalibrs. I guess they can only pull so much from the well before things start running dry. Maybe.

I suppose... if we're being realistic here, maybe the first step should be organizing the PZ defense using smaller, more mobile units. Just a thought.
Units are taking down those Sukhois and MiGs... and then you've got the S-300—or maybe it's an S-400, or some other similar system, I guess—and then things get complicated.
Maybe we should look into acquiring some sort of "crown jewel" for air defense—something that can actually hold its own while all those other systems are busy trying to counter the S-300. I guess it’s worth considering.

Maybe someone should probably sit down and explain how air defense systems actually work in the first place—not to be rude, but just to get everyone on the same page—and maybe touch upon the specific tactics being used over in Ukraine right now.

velvetbadger11 said:Is providing them with drones, Javelins, and Starstreak truly enough to halt the Russian advance at the Donbas?

People seem to forget that Ukraine didn't exactly declare independence just last month.
They have an army, and honestly, it isn't some incompetent mess.

About a month and a half ago, they managed to halt an entire armored push toward Kyiv, even if they were caught off guard.

Now, the force ratio might even be tilting in Ukraine's favor.
It’s probably not about whether the Russians can make some minor breakthrough here or there... I guess the real question is whether they can actually sustain those losses long-term, and how the Russian public is going to react once they finally catch wind of what's really happening.

Joseph Clark37 said:I honestly don't understand why there's such a delay in delivering equipment like MiG-29s, various types of former Soviet armor and artillery, new drones, anti-ship missiles, extra air defense systems, and hundreds of tons of infantry gear and ammo. All of this was needed yesterday just to give the Ukrainian military any real maneuverability. Otherwise, it’s only a matter of time before the Russians encircle the east and keep pushing south...

For anyone who actually understands how quickly—or rather, how slowly—weaponry was dispatched during similar historical crises, this level of rapid, massive support is unprecedented.
If someone had told me even two months ago that Ukraine would be receiving this much aid, coming from places like Switzerland, Sweden, Australia, Finland, and even Spain... I probably would have told them they were out of their mind.
The sheer scale of this help feels almost surreal, and the unity within the West is something we haven't seen... at least not in the last 30 years or so.
What we’re seeing now as days, in other historical contexts, would have taken months.

Otherwise, it's just a matter of time before Russia encircles the east and continues its push toward the south.

The Russian military made headway in those opening days mostly because of the element of total surprise—basically because Vladimir Putin decided to escalate the invasion so aggressively.
Even so, that unprepared Ukrainian military managed to halt and beat the Russian army in the North and the Southeast.
As far as I can tell, it isn't really realistic for the Russians to pull off another major breakthrough in the south right now. At least, not without a full-scale mobilization back in Russia.
Maybe the Russians can just hope they manage to hold onto what they've already taken.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Germany remains an occupied state, essentially. There is zero chance they will arm themselves with nukes, and even their conventional military capabilities are highly questionable at best.

Well, that same Germany is a nuclear power in practice, I suppose, since they have American nuclear weapons on their soil as part of NATO sharing. It's the same in Turkey... and I think Italy, Belgium, and the Netherlands might still be in that same boat...

Also, back during the height of the Cold War, Germany had maybe 4,000 Leopards... and now? They've got maybe 100 operational ones left...

Terry Barnes9 said:Yeah, because that was literally the whole point of my post. 🤦

The point is, you don't really have a clue what you're talking about here.

You keep bringing up that $13.6 billion aid package for Ukraine that Congress approved.

First off, most of that money hasn't even left the building yet; a huge chunk of it is just slated for future production.

And half of that is humanitarian aid, which honestly has nothing to do with actual military operations.
When you look at the military side, it’s a mixed bag—we're talking everything from helmets and body armor to MREs, jet fuel, and spare parts for various hardware.

It isn't just a shipment of Javelins, Stingers, and drones. All of that stuff is necessary for an army to function.

As far as I can tell, maybe $2 or $3 billion in total military assistance has actually made its way into Ukraine so far.

Just for context, the total value of the arsenal Russia is using to attack Ukraine is probably somewhere between $70 and $100 billion directly, and then there's likely at least that much more indirectly...

Nancy Gomez26 said:Pilots and ground crews see firsthand that men aren't returning to base; they understand exactly what happened and what needs to be done. Eventually, the aircraft will simply begin to fail, rendering them unflightworthy. It’s typical for a system like this—a systemic failure occurs, and suddenly, nobody is to blame. No sane individual wants to risk their life for the paranoid delusions of some fool who panics if someone sits at a table within ten meters of him.

There’s going to be obstruction at every single level.
Equipment will fail, pilots will get sick...

But honestly, the pilots... they'll be the ones sabotaging the missions most.

We’ve already seen those Russian attack helicopters just spraying unguided rockets in ballistic arcs... which, frankly, makes things easier for everyone else... and it’ll be the same with these jet fighters... just fly in, dump whatever dumb bombs are on board, and who cares where they land? They might hit a city instead of enemy units, sure, but that’s just how it goes.

Terry Barnes9 said:And let's be real, something stinks about all this Western military aid. I mean, look at it—the USA has dumped billions , plus the European Union, Australia... It feels like every single day there's some new headline about another massive shipment being sent over. If that was the case, they should've been sitting pretty in Moscow by now instead of picking up dead civilians off the streets. Something is definitely getting stuck somewhere.

🤣🤣🤣

God help both Ukraine and those of us back home from "experts" like this.

They don't have the slightest clue what they're talking about, yet they act like they could just march right into Moscow if they wanted to...

placidrider48 said:Honestly, if they can just get enough replacements for those lost S-300 and buk systems, that’s probably plenty. I guess training people on how to run "heavyweight" Western air defense tech would take forever anyway, right?

I suppose I agree.

Right now, what really matters for the Ukrainian military is setting up a coordinated network of MANPADS on the battlefield. If they can cover everything up to 3+ km with Stingers and Starstreaks—paired with some decent early warning for Russian aircraft and helicopters—that changes things.

Getting those S-300 and Buk units back up to strength might just be enough to stop the Russians from flying high without worrying about much.

Since they've burned through so many precision bombs and missiles lately (and honestly, not all of them were even that accurate), the Russians might be forced to fly low for tactical strikes, using dumb bombs just to hit something.

That kind of thing would lead to losing quite a few planes and helicopters pretty quickly.
And besides, keeping their existing fleet flight-ready is becoming an uphill battle, I think.

Kenneth Cruz67 said:

I was just thinking about this rather fascinating theory 🤣

Actually, the mere fact that you see so much of this Russian gear flooding the black market—while their own elite units seem to be lacking it—kind of supports that idea, doesn't it?...

Back when I was just a kid, we used to tell jokes about stuff like this...

Carl Lee27 said:The Russian ambassador over in the UK is out here making all these big threats, saying they’re going to intercept and destroy those precision weapon shipments coming from the UK into Ukraine. Honestly, it feels like a massive bluff to me—I mean, do they even have the actual capability to pull something like that off? Unless they’re planning on sending their own planes and helicopters straight into a death trap, I just don't see how they could make it happen without losing everything.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...qfHMm517g&s=19

So far, they've mostly just shown they can hit warehouses and other stationary targets, which are located so far from the actual front lines. Hitting moving vehicles... that seems much harder. Especially when they don't even know what's being transported or where it's going.
And I guess the defenders have learned a few things from those initial strikes, too.

One more thing.
That recent strike in Belgorod—couldn't that be seen as a message to Putin? Maybe a response to the refinery attack right on the border, occurring right around the time of Biden's conference near that area in Poland?

" Stop bombing western Ukraine if you don't want us giving Ukrainians the tools to hit back hard at Russia!"

Chris Thomas94 said:Even Wikipedia is already noting that Ukraine has 100 Switchblade drones in its arsenal...

Current operators
United Kingdom

British Armed Forces
United States
U.S. Armed Forces
Ukraine
Ukrainian Armed Forces: 100 Switchblade drones

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Switchblade

Actually, I don't think we're talking about 100 individual drones here. It’s more like 100 separate systems, and each one probably comes with 10 drones:

On 16 March, the White House announced that "100 Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems" would be provided to Ukraine ...
Each of these systems constitutes "a complete package of ground launch and control systems, and potentially multiple drones." According to one journalist, citing a US military source, each of these systems carries ten Switchblade drones, making for a total of 1,000. The breakdown of the 1,000 units - between Switchblade 300s, Switchblade 600s, and Blackwings - has not been publicized.

So, I guess we're looking at roughly 1,000 drones in total. The source doesn't specify how many are the smaller ones, how many are the larger versions—the ones carrying a warhead similar to a Javelin—or how many are just unarmed reconnaissance models. Maybe.

Carl Lee27 said:Man, artillery... I’m just sitting here thinking how much we could really use some heavy-duty MLRS units right about now, though honestly, a fleet of those 155mm self-propelled guns would probably be even more likely to make an impact.

Britain and its allies have agreed to send more lethal weapons to Ukraine to help defend IT against Russia's invasion, British defence minister Ben Wallace said on Thursday. A number of countries have come forward either with new ideas or indeed more pledges of money," Wallace told reporters after hosting over 30 international partners AT a conference. He said the lethal aid included longer range artillery, ammunition, and more anti-aircraft weapons.

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article...fence-minister

boldotter2 said:This looks like prep work for future offensives. I mean, you just can't have a breakthrough without heavy artillery support.
It’s going to be tough defending Donbas with Donetsk right on the front line within range of heavy guns. I guess the same goes for all the other strongholds too.

The only place where Russia might actually hold onto control is Crimea, mostly because of Sevastopol and the Black Sea Fleet. Everything else? I bet it'll all just reintegrate voluntarily once things get a bit more intense on the battlefield. Honestly, the separatists seem totally checked out already. They probably realize pretty quickly that they're the ones who'll be on the chopping block first, not Putin, or anyone from Moscow or Chechnya.

The Ukrainians have hundreds of those 152 mm self-propelled howitzers at their disposal now... I suppose. It’s a significant amount of heavy hardware, though I wonder how much of it actually stays operational given the circumstances. Maybe.
They've got upwards of a hundred pieces of other artillery sitting there. I guess... maybe it's significant, though I can't be entirely sure how much that actually shifts the needle on the ground. It's just more hardware in the mix, I suppose.
They've got hundreds of those VBR-ov units out there. I guess... maybe they actually have the numbers to back it up this time. Or perhaps not. It’s hard to say for sure, really.
They've got those Tochka ballistic missiles. I suppose they really do. It’s one of those things you just have to account for, though, I guess. Just another variable in an already messy equation.

I mean, honestly... a few batteries of 155mm howitzers—maybe with a slightly better range, if we're being optimistic—or even some MLRS units probably wouldn't shift the needle much right now. It’s hard to say. I guess what would actually matter more... more significant, maybe... would be just sending them enough ammunition and those old Soviet-era supplies they're already using. Just getting them the shells they need seems more vital than adding more heavy hardware to the mix.

I suppose if you look at the math... I mean, just consider this. For the price of maybe two decent batteries of AS-90s or PzH2000s—assuming they come fully rigged with all the gear and a healthy stockpile of ammo—the Ukrainian Armed Forces could probably score something like 1,000 Switchblade 600s and maybe 3,000 Switchblade 300 drones. It’s a strange thought, really. They could potentially deploy that kind of tech as a total game changer during an offensive... or maybe not. It depends on how things play out on the ground, I guess.

Andrew Miller102 said:Are you referring to the Ukrainian defense industry? If the reports are accurate, most of that capacity has been wiped out. It’s hardly surprising that those heavy Russian cruise missiles have been consistently hitting precisely selected strategic military targets from the start. Just because the Ukrainians aren't broadcasting every single hit—and we all know why—doesn't mean those missiles didn't find their marks.

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/...20714260307970

If you look at the broader picture, Twitter is constantly ablaze with footage of destroyed Russian tanks and armored vehicles. But at the end of the day, we both know who is actually absorbing the massive military losses here.☕

Those Putin-loving 'useful idiots' are still feeding their own delusions by linking to these ridiculous sites.

I suppose, in your own little bubble of denial, you tell yourselves that your beloved Mother Russia is fighting against the entirety of NATO in Ukraine, so the catastrophic losses just seem... understandable?

God, it'll probably be filmed—a sequel to that "No, no, no, no, no..." thing, maybe this time with Vladek Putko in the lead role...

🍿

Kate Lewis3 said:Plus, it means sending ammo they can actually grab from the Russians.

They’ve been capturing howitzers before... some completely untouched, others with just minor damage.
And even the ones that are totally trashed, maybe you could repair a few or at least salvage some parts...

Walter Baker2 said:The Javelins absolutely tore them apart. Honestly, tanks are basically just museum pieces at this point—nothing but expensive scrap metal. The future belongs to infantry squads carrying guided missiles and rifles, backed by some kind of impenetrable, high-tech armor.

The whole arms race between artillery and armor has been grinding on for two centuries now.
It’s hard to imagine it just... stops.

Walter Baker2 said:Forget about tanks. These British howitzers are moving 37 miles at highway speeds and come loaded with high-tech electronics plus integrated radar systems.

The Ukrainian military inherited about 300 of those similar self-propelled howitzers from the old USSR days, not to mention another thousand or so of various other calibers, big and small.
A German M1 Abrams system would be much more advanced, I suppose.

Maybe the better way to help right now, in the middle of all this fighting, would just be providing them with more of those Soviet-style howitzers they already have—the kind their crews actually know how to use and where the ammo is already sitting in warehouses...