Posts by Timothy Nelson5

Adam Lee13 said:I mean, looking at the gap between a Stinger and a Patriot US system, there isn't really much in the middle for Americans to work with... so if they're hinting at something "more serious," what on earth are we actually talking about here???😁

I suppose what the Ukrainians really need is the NASAMS system. It seems like a better fit, honestly. You'd have this incredibly mobile, dispersed setup—something with mid-to-long range capabilities that’s fully integrated with NATO AVACS systems. It just makes sense, I guess. Everything needs to be interconnected if it's going to work.
The way I see it, that whole system was really designed for scenarios where the rotary-wing side is facing total air superiority. I guess it’s just built for those specific conditions... maybe.

The Ukrainians really need a system that’s highly mobile—something they can constantly reposition on the fly. It's about staying ahead of the curve, I guess. They need something capable of denying Russian aircraft any kind of safe passage at higher altitudes. If they can make those high-altitude flight paths too risky, it changes the whole calculus of the airspace. Maybe that's the key to keeping things manageable.
When they drop to lower altitudes, they’re basically sitting ducks for MANPADS. I guess it just makes them an easy target.

brightheron64 said:It’s like these fools are just trapped in a loop of space and time... you’d think they actually learned something after what happened in Chechnya, but here we are... it's total déjà vu.
On one hand, you have to admit there's a certain satisfaction in watching it, but on the other, when an evil force wields such a massive club—an absolutely humongous club—I really fear they might just snap and start swinging it wildly at everyone, regardless of the fallout...

Whatever they feel like???

Sorry, but that is nowhere near being what the Ukrainians actually want!
It reminds me of 1945 and the Volkssturm—it's like saying, "Here, take this Panzerfaust and good luck, whoever survives... just try to defend your own doorstep..."

Actually, yeah.

I mean, sorry, but that’s still a long way from what the Ukrainians actually want.
It kind of reminds me of '45... I guess. Home Guard "Here, take this Bazooka... whoever survives, survives, I suppose. You just do what you have to when you're defending your own home."

So, there’s this fundamental difference between firing a Bazooka at a tank from about 30 meters away versus using a Javelin... I guess it really comes down to how you're actually engaging the target. One is basically a short-range punch, while the other is a whole different beast entirely. Maybe it’s worth looking at the mechanics of it, if you have the patience for that. 1.2 miles I mean, he just tracks that tank and absolutely shreds every single one of them... hm...

Carl Lee27 said:A Ukrainian Boeing heading over to Turkey for another round of playing games

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...qQAH9kJ8Q&s=19

I suppose I'm trying to put myself in the shoes of the Russian command... just staring on with this sense of pure dread and helpless rage as they realize they're stuck. Their whole operational concept just fell apart... and now they're just watching while NATO sends the Ukrainians whatever they feel like giving them...

casualtiger2 said:That’s 13,000 anti-tank rounds—not even counting what they already have in stock.
Why on earth do they need that many when Russia doesn't even have that many tanks left?

Well, I guess it's because you aren't just aiming at tanks and armored vehicles with stuff like that.
You're hitting everything—transport vehicles, bunkers, fortified positions... those expensive, high-end systems like the Javelin or NLAW are specifically meant for armor. But plenty of other systems come with different types of warheads. Some are designed more for smashing through bunkers or reinforced buildings, maybe penetrating about 10 cm of plating... and most targets infantry run into during a fight aren't heavy-duty tanks or armored units.
An astronomically pricey Javelin will hit and wreck almost any tank at 2,500 meters with maybe 95% accuracy, even if it's moving fast... whereas a cheap anti-tank launcher might only hit a stationary target at 200-300 meters with a 50% or 60% chance.

The gear gets distributed across all the units, because, well, you never really know which unit is going to get pulled into intense combat and which one might spend the whole war sitting in a position where they won't see an enemy at all.
etc...

Andrew Miller102 said:It’s a pretty brilliant move, really, laying everything out in the open and being transparent about exactly what's heading into Ukraine.😵

It isn't as if Russia hasn't figured this out already, and acting like having a Patriot missile guarding that airfield provides some kind of ironclad security is optimistic at best. A Patriot is essentially useless if Russia decides to retaliate by tossing a few Kinzhal supersonic missiles their way just for the hell of it.☕

Honestly, it would be better if the Patriot actually shot it down, just so all this posturing could finally stop.

If Russ actually pulled it off, maybe the response would just be more Patriots stationed in western Ukraine...
Or perhaps they'd just hand the Ukrainians 50 Tomahawks so they could have a little fun hitting targets inside Russia.

silverfalcon5 said:

hollowdriver13 As stated by Gerald Chavez7:
I recently came across a statement from the German side, and it seems the situation within the US Armed Forces is so dire that they practically have nothing left to send to Ukraine without leaving themselves completely exposed. 🤦
It appears they have also taken lessons from the Russians on how to "manage" their military inventory.

Back in 2018, out of America's 128 F-35 jets, only 39 were actually capable of taking flight. Due to coolant leaks affecting the sensors, only 10 of those 39 aircraft had functioning defense systems, and they only carried missiles for four of them.

I sincerely hope they have recovered since then.

It is deeply concerning to note that only 4 of America's 128 F-35 jets are currently combat ready.

The US Air Force has only four combat-ready F-35 jets regarding this.

Regarding this...
I guess you have to wonder what kind of state the Russian jets are in, considering they have about seven times as many as the Americans, and the Russian military budget is only just a little bit higher...

Gerald Chavez7 said:Anyone can pull up FlightRadar24, head over to southeastern New York near Buffalo, and watch a dozen transport planes touch down there every single day. From there, the supplies get loaded onto trucks, trains, or cars and shipped straight into Ukraine. The Russians just can't seem to shut that border down...

But do you really think those heavy military transports carrying the most expensive, high-tech gear are actually going there?
I'm pretty sure they just kill the transponders and touch down at some tiny, obscure airfields all over Romania, Slovakia, Canada, and Poland... maybe they even cross right into Ukraine directly...

placidtinker39 said:Look, if the goal is just to boost morale for the civilians and the troops, there are military chaplains and USO programs for that. By making a massive public spectacle out of sending aid, you’re basically painting a giant bullseye on every single supply route and warehouse in the vicinity.
In short, what starts as a noble gesture ends up fueling an escalation...
Don't lose sight of the fact that we're dealing with someone on the other side who has an unthinkable amount of nuclear firepower at his disposal.

Some chaplain stands up there and says "God is on our side" over and over again... and people just react. They start questioning things, I suppose. Like, if He really is with us, then why is all this happening? Why is everything falling apart? It’s that old, weary cycle, I guess.
It doesn't really have much of an impact on morality... I mean, maybe if you look at it from a certain angle, but honestly, I doubt it. It’s hard to say for sure, given how things usually go.

When Zelenskyy stood there and said, "I don't need a ride, I'm staying right here to defend my country, just get me some weapons!"... man, that sent the morale of millions of Ukrainians through the roof. It was something else. And then, when they found out that emergency aid—stuff worth about three times their entire annual military budget—was actually on its way? Well, you can imagine the reaction. It was massive.

If you keep whining about how much aid we’re sending, you’re basically turning every single delivery route into a target and flagging every warehouse in sight as a potential bullseye. I guess that's just how it works. Maybe.

I mean, honestly, the Russians are just clueless. They seem to have absolutely no idea about the sheer scale of the massive weapon shipments free-world governments have been funneling into Ukraine, and they haven't stopped sending them either. It’s almost laughable, I guess.

Russian soldiers? I mean, I suppose it’s an inevitability at this point, isn't it? Just one more piece of a much larger, much messier puzzle. I guess we’re all just watching the same slow-motion train wreck, wondering when the tracks finally run out. Maybe.
They’re driving past dozens of their own destroyed tanks, starving, freezing, and honestly, just in a miserable state... and then they get this "fantastic" news that the enemy is receiving tens of thousands of pieces of hardware that can tear through those tanks without breaking a sweat. I mean, if you think about it, it's probably no wonder there's such a massive trail of abandoned Russian equipment left behind. It's all a bit much, I guess.

In short, you pursue some noble cause, and all you end up with is an escalation of the conflict. I guess that's just how it goes. Maybe it's inevitable.

I mean, if you look at the facts, all this escalation... it’s really coming from the Russian side. I guess that's just how it looks to me. Maybe I'm oversimplifying things, but it seems pretty clear.

Russians can't even lodge an official protest about all this arming of Ukraine... it’s almost ironic, I guess. They were actually part of the group that stood as guarantors for the Ukrainians back when they decided to give up their nuclear weapons. Now, everything has changed. It's just... complicated. Maybe they don't even have the standing to say anything anymore.

George Robinson43 said:Man, he clearly doesn't grasp why the West is focusing almost entirely on light weaponry, specifically Javelins and Stingers.
He seems to believe we're sending massive military convoys down roads that are essentially sitting ducks. 🙏

Right now, there’s a massive influx of trucks heading into Ukraine carrying humanitarian aid; they outnumber the weapon shipments by maybe twenty to one. Everything else is moving too—supplies, gear, you name it. The roads are packed with vehicles full of refugees. All those border areas are actually quite far from the Russian bases, like 700 to 622 miles miles away.
Launching airstrikes or missile attacks from Belarus specifically targeting those near-border regions, or hitting near Poland, would be a huge escalation for Belarus. And when you consider how far it is to the borders with Slovakia, Canada, and Romania, or even the airfields in Belarus, we're talking 400 to 311 miles...

Honestly, I suspect the Russians don't even have enough smart munitions to effectively hit convoys that deep in territory. Convoys are mobile targets, and practically speaking, it's nearly impossible to tell which semi-truck is hauling Javelins and which one is just carrying medicine.
If a bunch of civilians in a convoy were killed right on the edge of a NATO border, it could really backfire on the Russians.

So far, the Russians have mostly targeted stationary sites—training centers, food warehouses, or whatever... though they are starting to use cruise missiles from the Black Sea Fleet, which probably suggests they're running low on them...

Maria Moore said:You really need to add this statement to the mix:
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-mar...d-intelligence

"We are actively sharing information and intelligence with the Ukrainians that we believe can be helpful to them in their fight every day - and by helpful, I mean helpful," the senior U.S. defense official said

As another official put it, US intelligence agencies are sharing satellite imagery and other reconnaissance footage from planes that fly over Poland and Romania 24/7. They’re mapping out the entire battlefield with pinpoint GPS coordinates on Russian armored movements. This is what lets the Ukrainian military use Bayraktar drones and man-portable anti-tank weapons to absolutely wreck Russian tank units.

Actually, maybe it goes even further than that.
They’re likely reporting locations for Russian short and medium-range air defense radars, and even spotting incoming Russian fighter jets.
It’s highly probable—if you can call it that—that this is the main reason why the Bayraktars haven't all been shot down yet. It seems fairly certain they've developed some kind of system to shield the drones from being targeted.

feralnomad35 said:Look, if a single club like Real Madrid can swing a million, just imagine what the USA would actually need to cough up so this whole aid situation doesn't end up looking like a total joke...

It's gotta be a massive number..

Maybe we should just ask Soros how much he plans on chipping in...
He poured billions into fueling this whole conflict, and now we’re all stuck watching it play out...

Carl Lee27 said:It looks like the 600 version might be on the way too, since they're mentioning its effectiveness against armor. The numbers being cited seem pretty modest, though... I suspect they're probably shipping out significantly more behind closed doors.
https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/stat...rGGYucwvw&s=19

Sending over a small batch of those nasty loitering munitions could just be a signal to Russia about what happens if they decide to escalate things by ramping up indiscriminate bombing and civilian casualties. Maybe. It’s hard to say for sure.

Sam Alvarez4 said:I touched on this just a few days ago.

Regarding Borell's interview yesterday in Versailles: she discussed arming Ukraine and how they're coordinating everything through Brussels.

The requests from Ukraine are clear—they need heavy weaponry, specifically anti-tank missiles, and plenty of fuel too.

To manage this, Borell has a dedicated team of 200 officers pulled from all over Europe to sync up Ukraine's needs with what various nations can actually provide...
The group is led by a French admiral and an Italian general.

The whole operation is funded via EU funds.

"In Brussels, my department maintains a military staff. We have a French admiral and an Italian general leading a team of 200 officers from across the European militaries to handle this work. They bridge the gap between supply and demand. The member states provide the hardware, and we cover the costs."

I think this is actually quite significant. It shows that the support for Ukraine isn't just some chaotic, "send whatever you have lying around" situation—though I suppose some of that happens too—but there is a real effort to send exactly what the Ukrainians are asking for most urgently.

But there’s another layer of support here, which might be just as vital as the actual weapons:

Intelligence.
The Ukrainians are getting constant, real-time data from satellites, signals intelligence, various intel assessments... even airborne warning systems like the Airborne Warning and Control System provide them with the locations of Russian aircraft.

Ukraine War - Combat Footage from Kyiv Area gives Closer look AT Armament of Ukrainian AT Squads

It’s a decent little clip, I suppose. It shows a small group of American soldiers engaged in combat near Kyiv, pretty much decked out with every kind of anti-tank launcher you can imagine...

bluemason3 said:Some people are arguing this won't actually change much on the ground. Their logic? Even the gear they already have isn't being used to its full potential because they just don't have enough air superiority. So, they see this as more of a PR stunt than a tactical win.
Purely a PR move. 🤔

All this talk about those Mig aircraft... honestly, it feels more like a distraction technique to pull focus away from things, or maybe just a way to mess with Russia's head, rather than anything that would actually give Ukraine a decisive edge right now.

If you look at it logically:

1. It's essentially a signal to Russia that there's a faction within NATO willing to send whatever weaponry is requested.
Maybe that way, Russia might eventually find it easier to tolerate these massive shipments of lighter weaponry. At the highest political levels, I suppose they don't quite grasp that such gear can be much more lethal against their invasion forces than a single squadron of MiG-29s.

Russia will likely view the fact that these jets haven't been delivered to Ukraine (at least not openly or in bulk) as a sort of victory for their diplomacy and threats. They'll probably feel like they've succeeded, while also realizing that all this light weapon stuff doesn't actually stop them much.

2. Showing that NATO is ready to step up by sending this kind of hardware might convince Russian leadership to scale back airstrikes and cruise missile attacks on western Ukraine, specifically in areas closer to the borders of NATO member states.
It’s simple logic, I guess—if the border countries feel less threatened, they might push less for the heavier, more sophisticated weapon systems to be sent to Ukraine.

3. Those planes might actually just complicate air defense, especially since units are being mass-distributed Stingers, Arrows, Wasps, and eventually Starstreaks...
Ukraine still has some operational S-300 batteries, and when you factor in their likely real-time connection with AWACS, it makes flying at higher altitudes pretty dangerous for the Russian Air Force. That system could potentially be coordinated with the Ukrainian MiG-29.
But then again, it would be incredibly difficult to prevent someone armed with a Stinger from accidentally targeting their own planes, since they're trained to see only the enemy in the sky.
So, in my opinion, it would probably make more sense to send extra missiles for the S-300s, maybe some mobile short-to-medium range systems... and try to get those captured Pantsirs and Tunguskas back in working order...

Anthony Hill5 said:The United States has more than doubled its commitment to aiding Ukraine. What began as an initial $4.8 billion package has now ballooned into a staggering $13.6 billion ready for deployment.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03...nitial-request

I suppose the real priority right now is just getting as much hardware on the ground as possible within the next 48 hours...

Nathan Mitchell3 said:USA rejects Polish plan involving MiG jets: It's simply unfeasible and carries too much risk

It seemed pretty obvious to me that they couldn't even agree among themselves, let alone figure out the logistics and delivery...

Are you absolutely certain those MiGs—well, at least some of them—aren't already en route to Ukraine...

🍿

If this pace of arming them keeps up for another month, I guess Ukraine might just end up with an aircraft carrier too...

🍿

We really need to change this thread title, urgently.

In reality, this isn't about sanctions at all, but rather some sort of 'Special Financial Operation' designed to actually prop up the Russian economy.
😁

I mean, considering how... well, Russia maintains they aren't committing an act of war or invading Ukraine, but are just conducting a 'military-police operation' to assist the Ukrainian people...

🍿

Carl Lee27 said:Look, in this specific situation, Americans are actually looking out for their allies here. The US has been a net energy exporter for quite a while now—I'm pretty sure we're even net exporters of natural gas at this point—so we have that cushion, whereas Europe is the one that's left incredibly vulnerable to these shifts.

It was all about Trump.
The first thing that clueless, senile Biden did was basically sign off on sabotaging our own growing hydrocarbon industry just to push the Green New Deal.
The liar media refuses to highlight this as what it actually is—one of those catastrophic moves that gave Putin the ambition to start a war in Ukraine.

If that exponential growth in US production and LNG exports to the EU had kept going, Putin would have thought twice, very carefully, about risking an invasion of Ukraine (which, by the way, for anyone who hasn't caught up, happened because of newly discovered hydrocarbon reserves near the Black Sea coast...)