Man Utd vs Olympiacos (March 19, 8:45 PM) 0:0 @ 3.20 (2:0) ss
I mean, I guess Man Utd really shouldn't go all out and just charge blindly into this one, you know? :-), because if Olympiacos manages to snag even just one goal, suddenly United is stuck needing four just to have a prayer of moving on... But then again, my gut tells me Olympiacos is probably just gonna sit back, park the bus, and wait for that perfect counterattack opportunity, which they might not even get because... well, you know.
The thing is, even if I totally nail the tactical prediction, anything can happen and some random fluke shot can always find the back of the net, but I suppose that’s kind of why the odds are what they are..
I mean, I already said I'm not really sure about this one, and honestly, looking back at my own "analysis," it’s pretty obvious I don't have much solid info to work with, so... I guess if by some miracle anyone here actually follows this league, maybe you could tell me why the coefficient was jumping around so much??
I guess I'm trying to hit a slightly higher multiplier, you know, just so I don't have to risk putting too much down at once... and this one just really caught my eye. I mean, you know how it goes, luck is random, right? Like just yesterday I took a shot on Brasov, but then that absolute "sure thing" Chesterfield FC totally screwed me over.
So, Brest has really picked up their act lately with three wins in a row, and if you just look at the stats, they actually seem to have a bit of an edge, maybe by two points or something... but what's really tripping me up is how much those odds are swinging on the international betting sites—like, they're jumping from 2.8 to 3.4, while the odds for Brest are dropping from 2.7 down to 2.3—so if anyone knows anything about why that's happening, I'd love to hear it. It’s definitely not a "sure thing" or anything, but once something catches my eye like this, I just can't help myself! :-) I might try a little something small, maybe a parlay involving Rotherham United (2), some Donjet circumstances (over 2.5), and Hammarby IF (over 2.5 goals)
I mean, I guess Dortmund's gonna pull this one off, though maybe it won't be quite as easy as those odds make it look. Looking at their last ten games, they haven't really been struggling, except for that one match against Bayern Munich where they couldn't find the net, but their current form is sitting at 7th: 4-4-2 (averaging 2.7 goals per game, about 15:12 total) whereas Dortmund is sitting at 9th: 4-2-4 (averaging 3.5 goals per game, roughly 19:16 total)
I’ve been trying really hard to stay away from the sportsbook lately, I swear, but I just had to give this one a shot. Like, I was just passing by and overheard what the odds were looking like and I felt like I absolutely had to try it... Based on everything I’ve been following lately, just reading the news and stuff, I guess the odds should probably be more like 3:3:3. I honestly don't get why Seattle is the favorite here? Is it because of how they've been playing in the MLS or maybe some Champions League match? They just lost their captain and another starter in their last game, and they've been without their starting goalie for a while now too... I mean, I don't necessarily think they're gonna lose to LA, but those odds just seem totally off to me, like, there's gotta be some serious value here if you ask me.
Esbjerg has basically been on fire since the end of last season: 3-0-1 (12:3), while Randers is more like 1-2-1 (7:7).. Last 5 games: Thor went 0-1-4, but Fylkir was 4-1-0... honestly, I feel like any other way of looking at this is pretty much pointless, unless maybe someone happens to have some inside info on who might be missing from Fylkir's lineup, because based purely on their current form, they really should just roll right through it.. Friendlies aren't exactly the best way to make predictions, but I'll give it a shot anyway.. Newcastle has played 6 decent matches and they've managed to put the pressure on in every single one, so hopefully they'll do it again tonight too.. If we assume that Manchester City is actually supposed to take this one, then we end up with...
I mean, they're resting Anderson and Quinn because they aren't quite back to 100% yet, but I still feel like Seattle doesn't have much of a chance at Lumen Field today. Honestly, St. Louis City SC has given up two goals in their last three games, and they're basically just hanging out at the bottom of the table anyway. Plus, Seattle is playing a bunch of young talent who are super hungry to prove themselves, and the vibe around the squad seems really solid; they had such terrible finishing in the last match that they've gotta get some luck back soon, I guess... It’s a holiday tomorrow, so I'm expecting at least 15,000 fans in the stands, and the Sounders really shouldn't let those people down..
Chicago Fire vs. LA Galaxy............f+2@1,45ss Seattle Sounders vs. Portland Timbers............2@1,45ss St. Louis City SC.....................2@2,00ss 17th Matchday: 5/10
-So, Chicago and Seattle are basically neck-and-neck for that top spot which moves them up a tier, and since there's only five games left, they really shouldn't be dropping points against teams like LA Galaxy (sitting 14th out of 16) on the road, or Seattle (11th) who have been going 4-3-6 lately. -And man, St. Louis is absolutely struggling, coming off seven straight losses, including one at home in the Cup against today's opponent (1:4 back on May 1st). I guess IFK being 2nd in the league makes these odds look super weird to me, because if they end up choking, someone should probably check their roster to see if they're missing key starters, since statistically they should win this easily (unless, I don't know, we're just looking for a way to break that seven-game losing streak😉).
53/39 (I guess that’s about a 97.22% hit rate with some solo wins) slips: 2/13 (44.85/32)
Norrkoping/over 2.5 goals + AIK win......yes @ 2.05 Djurgarden vs Kalmar.......draw @ 1.45 Slask/over 2.5 goals vs Lech............yes @ 1.70 16.L: for 3/10
-Norr over 2.5 happened 7/10 times, and AIK won 6/10 times lately -Djurgarden’s been going 2-2-6 (7:22) recently, while Kalmar is at 4-4-2 (12-8). I mean, Kalmar is a far cry from those legendary days they had maybe 3 or 4 seasons ago, but I honestly think the bottom-feeders might actually pull this one off... So just to be safe, I added the draw to my bet, which feels like a solid value given the stats, I guess. -Slask really ought to push for the win here, because if they don't, they're basically looking at an exit from the Conference League since they only have a one-point lead... On the flip side, Lech totally lost their momentum after that head-to-head against Legia, and it seems like they've mentally checked out and started dropping points at home, even against the basement dwellers. They didn't score in those last two games, which is crazy because that hasn't happened all season, so I feel like they should finally find the net today, even if the game doesn't strictly matter for them anymore.
-So, Alesund is in the top flight, which I guess is okay, but they’re kind of mid, though they always seem to beat the lower-ranked teams while losing to... well, Ranheim is sitting at the top of the second division right now, so I mean, it might not be a total cakewalk (if it even works😉), but looking at these odds against a lower league side, I feel like I just have to take them.. -It's the big cup final. The guys from Maribor basically cruised through, and today they're playing in the second tier to wrap up the season properly.. They are definitely better than Celje, but man, it's the same old story—cup finals can be weird, just look at what happened with Man City or Benfica recently, so maybe just be careful out there... -Honestly, this is probably my strongest pick of the bunch. It’s the last round of the league, and if Astra manages to knock out Žbire, they’ll grab those Europa League qualifying spots, whereas the other side will most likely blow it if Petrolul wins their game, so this match is huge for both sides. My only real worry is that since a draw works fine for the underdog, I'm kinda scared they might just park the bus too much, but.. Both teams score pretty consistently, so I'm thinking it should go our way, provided Astra manages to find the back of the net early on.
-they've only played like 4 games so I guess the stats aren't totally reliable yet, but honestly, I feel like this is the perfect time to jump in because those odds are just so tasty right now... LA Galaxy: 4-0-0 (9:1) Seattle: 2-0-2 (9:7)
-so I guess I decided on some kind of compromise here, even though I'm really feeling that draw because of how good they look, and it should probably go that way, but... Sociedad really needs to pull off a win since they're tied on points with Valencia, who I think will have an easier path... If Madrid can take advantage of Sociedad struggling, I feel like they'll find plenty of space to exploit, which they totally should... I just really hope I don't end up regretting this if Sociedad fails to pick up at least one point, I guess.. -cup final. It's just like any other final: single leg, anything could happen, honestly, but looking at their league form, I feel like Goteborg should take it, but since it's a one-off game, I'm playing it safe with a draw option just in case..
Man, that was some serious chaos from Real Madrid... did anyone actually catch a recording of this? I mean, honestly, Real doesn't have anything riding on this match, but for Sociedad, they absolutely need this win to stay in the hunt for Champions League qualification, so I guess those 2.60 odds make sense, right?? Sociedad hasn't really laid into them like that since back in 2004, and after that, they basically just traded wins or losses once or twice, but otherwise, the Madrid guys usually walk away with the win pretty regularly... Does anyone happen to have the lineups or something? Because it feels like the odds were set mostly based on that whole "do they need it or not" vibe—I know because the second half line for Madrid was sitting at 2.80🤷
46/35 (95.67 total stake and parlay) tickets: 2/10 Chelsea/vs City.....Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80ss Dortmund (3.5) vs Bayern....Over 3.00ss Inter Miami vs Orlando City................1 @ 1.45ss (Sun) LA Lakers vs Golden State Warriors...................x @ 3.10ss(Sun) LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders.....................2 @ 1.60ss (Sun)
-Basically an American tour vibe, just playing for the fans without much pressure.. 8 out of Chelsea's last 11 games ended like this -It’s the big final on May 1st, and I guess all the stats kind of go out the window, but my gut feeling after watching the whole season and the Champions League is that these two squads are gonna play super aggressive and just score a ton of goals. -It’s basically the game of the season for four teams here, like Inter Miami, Seattle, Golden State, and LA. I think I'll stick with Inter because they really need to beat Orlando, plus Golden State should probably take down LA so that Inter stays in the top tier and LA drops down. I mean, even Golden State has some motivation since if Seattle slips up against LA, Golden State might sneak into those playoff spots, but then again, LA actually beat them last week, so I don't really see how Golden State can knock them off now that they're playing at home...
-Like slyhawk4 was saying, everything points to this being pretty predictable since it's the final round and nobody really has any specific grudge or anything, but man, both these teams have just been absolutely hammering each other back in 2013, and they've lost at least five of their last head-to-head matchups, so... -Braves 1-1-5 (5:9), home 0-1-2(1:4) though with those five straight losses.. Diamondbacks overall 4-2-1(13:4)BUT away 1-1-1(2:2), so I guess it's not like a total lock or anything, but I still have this gut feeling that the Braves are actually a bit weaker than what the stats might suggest, so maybe it's worth a shot..
-So, Columbus and San Diego both have 54 points, so they're basically fighting for those playoff spots right now, I guess. There are only 2 games left on the schedule, so there's really no room for error at all, they just absolutely have to win if they want a shot... their opponents are pretty decent though, so anyone can beat them on any given night. It's kind of wild because Columbus hasn't actually hit this specific pick 11 times in a row, so maybe I'll try going against the trend here.. -Then you've got Sparta and Plzen battling it out for first place, and since there are 3 games left and Plzen is up by 2 points, neither of them can afford to slip up even once, I think. Plzen might have a slightly tougher road ahead, because Sigma is sitting in 4th and they aren't exactly bad, but honestly, they don't really have a realistic chance to pass Liberec for 3rd, plus their current form isn't looking great either... On the other hand, I feel like Sparta should be able to handle the local rivalry without too much trouble, even if they haven't officially secured their spot yet, mostly because I just think they're a class above the other guys..
-So, St. Louis hasn't scored at home in their last two games, and if they miss this one too, they might actually drop out of the playoff hunt entirely, which I guess is crazy because they haven't failed to score at home three times in a row all season, so maybe they finally find the net today even though things look grim... Austin is sitting pretty at 2nd in the standings and honestly they're probably the better side and should win this, but since they're stuck right in the middle of the pack with nothing to gain or lose, I wonder if they've even got the motivation left, especially since their last 4 or 5 matches have mostly been high-scoring affairs, so I'm kind of hoping for another shootout today.. -Then there's Columbus, who are basically flying high on form right now, while Charlotte has pretty much already locked in their spot, so both these teams play such an aggressive, open style of soccer that I'm really expecting a bunch of goals today... Plus, looking at their recent history, Columbus has taken the last three matchups and they were all absolute goal fests, so I'm leaning into that trend given how everyone is playing lately.. -Lastly, Philly is sitting in 3rd place with only three games left, and they're currently eyeing that Champions League qualifying spot, but man, 4th place is only three points behind them, so if they slip up even once, things get super messy fast, though they are playing incredibly well right now... On the other hand, NYCFC are pretty terrible when they travel, but I don't think they'll go down easy since they have a five-point cushion above the relegation zone, although I guess nothing is ever 100% certain, which is usually the only thing I'm ever unsure about when picking these types of games..
Good luck everyone!(and hey, just be careful with your bankroll)
41/30 (98.11% return on investment and pure profit) Tickets 2/8 (44.85/22).. even the second ticket hit 😲🙂 *..so about my strategy here: after that big win in round 9, I was honestly pretty sure round 10 wasn't gonna make the cut—it’s such a bummer we didn't at least grab the 2/10, but hey, I guess we can save that venting for the "Post-Game" thread later. Anyway, I think I’m gonna scale back my bets for the next few rounds because, man, everything just seemed to go my way over the last ten days, so I'm kind of expecting a bit of a losing streak to balance things out.. so definitely be careful with how much you're putting down!!
-We haven't played many rounds yet, so my stats are looking a little thin, but based on what I'm seeing, I guess it might actually be worth grabbing this pick at these odds. Aalesunds at home 3-2-0 (16:6) Odds away 0-0-4 (1:7)
-So Horn basically tore Harberg apart away from home, winning 3-0 back on May 6th... it hasn't even been two weeks yet, so I guess I don't really know if they'll stay this hot today, but if they pull off a win, they're mathematically safe from relegation. -Groding is sitting at the top of the table and already locked in their promotion to the big leagues, while Polten is stuck right in the middle with nothing to gain or lose... I used to bet the over on Polten games all the time, but since they haven't scored in their last five, I'm not totally sure, though since both teams have zero pressure, I'm kind of expecting a fun game with plenty of goals. -The Lokomotiv guys are probably gonna be itching to prove themselves, especially since there's so much crossover with former and future Dinamo players... Kelava hasn't let anything past him since that derby in Miami, so I guess maybe it's finally time for him to slip up, you know? Of course, that's assuming Dinamo wins or we see some weird tie where two balls fly past him, but yeah, that's my take.