Posts by hollowwalker10

Roger Phillips said:I don't have that option available today, just goals, winner, and over 2.5...
and I guess this over line is totally fine for a medium-sized bet if you ask me.

man, sorry, I just realized after the fact that the odds were actually great, because I was thinking it was more like 1.65 or something and I wasn't even really looking closely

Malaga/over 2.5 & BTTS....Yes @2.25

I mean, I totally agree with everything Roger Phillips said, though I guess his logic is a little bit fuzzy...
Like, if we go over 2.5 goals but they don't both score, then one of these teams would have to win 3-0. In my opinion, that just feels almost impossible, so I guess that makes me think... I mean, the risk for over 2.5 goals and BTTS 3+ is pretty much the exact same thing..


Real/over 2.5 & BTTS.........Yes @2.35 (man)

If we're being totally real, the Madrid guys should probably take this one, but I feel like the odds at the sportsbook aren't quite right and they're definitely lowballing Galatasaray (kind of like what happened with Schalke, if I remember that post correctly), so I'm thinking those guys from Turkey will probably sneak in at least one goal, and if they do and Real wins, then we're golden :-)

Jacob Torres21:
"Bayern Munich vs Hamburg
Bayern Munich: Badstuber (12/0 d)
Hamburg: Lam (3/0 m), Beister (20/3 m), Ilicevic (6/1 m), Jansen (22/0 m), Jiracek (7/0 m), Berg (11/0 f)"
I guess I should probably mention that it feels like they're playing without their star midfielder too, if you know what I mean..
Bayern Munich vs Hamburg....1@1.30ss

Jacob Torres21:
"Livingston FC vs Dunfermline
Livingston FC: McNulty (24/6 f) (doubtful), Watson (11/1 d), Ke. Jacobs (12/3 m), Docherty (8/0 d)
Dunfermline: Gallacher (28/0 first goalkeeper), McMillan (27/1 d), Dowie (30/2 d), Jordan (20/1 d), Cardle (25/3 m), Barrowman (22/10 f, top scorer), Kirk (26/4 f) (all left the club)"
The odds totally tanked from 1.80 down to 1.30—and honestly, now I totally see why that happened
Livingston FC vs Dunfermline...1@1.30ss

If we toss in some more action, like, who would actually even win here? The coach of that disciplined squad really managed to tighten up a defense that hasn't conceded in three games, though they haven't even been able to get a shot on goal in the last two... I mean, the Lakers have been kind of unpredictable this season, like when they pulled off that huge upset in the playoffs because everyone totally underestimated them... but I'm guessing that won't happen today because the coach is way too experienced to let something like that slip through his fingers. Oh, and if the striker gets healthy and comes off the bench after basically being out forever, I'm really hoping he scores.
Lakers vs Warriors......1@1.20ss

And if we add "jadewolf16's" favorite (that second Scottish game) onto this, we're looking at a pretty decent little parlay...

Good luck, everybody!

Edit: Just saw this now..
Ever since that game in Miami where the defender picked up his third yellow card, it was super obvious he wouldn't be playing against the Warriors, but then things got even messier because two more defenders ended up getting hurt. First, there was the guy playing for the national team who might miss the next game against the Knicks, and then another defender got banged up during practice. So the team is basically stuck without three of their four main starters from this spring; they've "only" got Šime Vrsaljko left.
For a smaller play:- odg3+....da@2.35ss

Portland Timbers vs. LA Galaxy.........................1@1,60ss
Minnesota United vs. Austin FC..........................1@1,60ss
Orlando City vs. Houston Dynamo............................1@1,60ss
Real Salt Lake vs. San Jose Earthquakes........................1x@1,20ss
Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders..Da@1,65ss

I guess Portland really needs to take down LA Galaxy if they want to stay in the hunt for those playoff spots, especially since they're stuck in this super tight race for the top seeds against teams like Atlanta and New York. Both sides have swapped coaches recently, but I feel like their guy is probably a bit more capable than that old-school coach from the other side. Honestly, this game against LA doesn't mean everything to them, I mean, they can't really afford to go too high or too low right now, plus they've got that massive semifinal matchup against Atlanta on Wednesday, so maybe they'll play a little more seriously than they would today.
If Minnesota pulls this off, they'll tie up with Austin FC at the top of the table and share first place... looking at their last 5 games home/away: Min:4-0-1..(14:5)
Aus:0-1-4..(2:14)
For that third spot which basically guarantees promotion, there are like four different teams in the mix, and Orlando is one of them, so they've got a pretty decent shot today to pull away from the pack or at least hold their ground... the tricky thing about this pick is that Houston is fighting just to stay out of the lower leagues, so they definitely won't just roll over, though the stats don't look great for them... last 5 games home/away: Orl:4-0-1..(6:2)
Hou:1-2-2..(5:7)
Salt Lake is basically fighting for survival in the league, and if they need to grab some points anywhere, it’d probably be at home against the bottom-dwellers of the league
last 5 games home/away: RSL:1-3-1(5:4)
SJ:0-1-4(1:6)
The US Second Division is usually known for being a total goal fest... and since Seattle actually seems a bit better on the road than at home, I guess that made this pick feel a little more solid to me, and even the bookies seem to agree.. :-)

good luck everyone!

Lokomotiv Moscow/Ingolstadt..Over 2.5 goals @ 2.30ss
Hartberg-Lustenau........Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70ss

So, I guess Lokomotiv at home has been on this crazy run lately, like they’ve won 5 in a row with a goal difference of 13:5, and honestly, only one game wasn't an over 2.5 goal affair (that 1-0 win against Celta Vigo), though their 6th game was actually a loss to today's opponent back in October...
Ingolstadt is sitting at the bottom right now, but they're only 3 points adrift, so maybe nothing is really lost yet, and I think they know they just have to find the net—they've scored in 6 of their last 7, only failing against Hajduk—just to grab a point, especially since it's been forever since they failed to score at home in the league, like since late 2011.
Basically, 4 out of the last 5 games where Lokomotiv played at home ended up being over 2.5 goals, so...

As for Hartberg, they're almost dead last and aren't showing any signs of turning things around, so they're basically just predictably bad (zero points in their last 4 games with a goal difference of 1:9), but then you've got Lustenau in first place, though even they are in pretty terrible shape lately with only 2 points from 4 games and a 5:11 goal difference, so if they actually want to make it to the big leagues, I guess it's about time they started winning again.

Mirassol vs Palmeiras............X2 @ 2.00ss

Corinthians vs Penapolense...1 @ 1.35ss

So, I guess Palmeiras is on this crazy five-game unbeaten streak away from home, which honestly, I haven't seen in forever—but then again, I really don't see Mirassol pulling off an upset here, so if it wasn't for that crazy streak, I’d probably just go with a double chance X2, but because they're rolling like this, I'm leaning towards a straight win
Corinthians at home: 7 games, 4-2-1 goal diff 17:8
Penapolense away: 7 games, 1-1-5 goal diff 6:14

driftingbear35 said:I mean, even if that's how it is... It feels like way more than just a "game," you know? I mean, it’s honestly so much more than that, I guess... maybe it's just me, but it really feels like everything is riding on this one. I've been sitting here for what feels like forever just mulling over which play to actually make, I guess... maybe I should finally just pick one and go for it?
Honestly, I feel like the US is way better than Mexico... and honestly, a huge plus is also... The atmosphere... man, you just can't even describe it, I guess. It's just something else entirely!I guess I won't even bother writing anything else since everything's already been laid out above!
All in 1.70 American

I guess if you ask me... I mean, I don't know, maybe just skip the bet this time? I guess there's really no point in placing one right now. The match:
It’s honestly about so much more than just the game itself, I really think... I mean, we’re objectively the better side—though honestly, I don't think it's by a massive margin—and I guess I'm thinking about that game between the Mexicans and the Belgians over in BG, where they were actually way better on the pitch but just got absolutely gutted by those counterattacks. Sure, they had the home-field advantage, but if they can pull that off at home against Belgium, then they can definitely hold their own on the road against us. But really, it all comes down to the pressure... if the intensity or the atmosphere drops even a little bit—and sometimes I feel like trying too hard actually backfires anyway—and that gives them a bit of a boost, then I think we're looking at a totally even match.
The vibe just feels different, I guess... maybe it's just me, but the energy in there is totally something else!I mean, I honestly don't know how much that kind of stadium atmosphere actually helps the players if they aren't totally vibing with the crowd, though I guess I can pretty much guarantee that for about 30 out of the 90 minutes, it’s just going to be pure, intense cheering against the Mexicans... but yeah, I won't even get into the details.
All in 1.70 American!Honestly, if you ask me, just please don't ever do that, because I really don't think you're going to prove anything by being more of a die-hard fan or whatever, and you'll probably just end up regretting it when you realize there were plenty of other games out there with way better odds and zero stress where you actually knew what was happening with the roster but didn't feel the need to go all in.

Honestly, just because of all that tension and how heavy the atmosphere feels right now, I probably won't put any money on this game, but if I absolutely had to make a call— I don't know, man, I guess I just always end up picking the draw whenever there's a massive derby going on, maybe because they're always so intense and tight.🙄

In the end, I really, really hope I'm totally wrong and we just end up absolutely crushing them like a bug under a boot!🤣

Galatasaray(P)-Schalke..........1@3.30SS
Schalke-Galatasaray.............x2@2,35SS
Schalke/odg3+-Galatasaray...Da@2,05SS

Roger Phillips... pretty much hit the nail on the head there, and I guess I’d just add that the odds on x2 and Galatasaray to advance seem way too low, honestly. Like, yeah, maybe Burat isn't playing great right now and might need like five straight clear shots just to find the back of the net, plus bringing in all those new players probably messed with their chemistry or whatever, but I still feel like they have a better shot than what the sportsbooks are giving them, so it might actually be worth a shot.

PSG vs. Valencia....I'm thinking maybe @2,25SS

PSG: I mean, Valencia pretty much has to put at least two past them if they want any kind of hope left, so I guess there isn't really much room for them to play it safe or calculate things too much... But then again, they're missing two key center backs, which, you know, I feel like should probably lead to more goals in their own net through counterattacks and fast breaks even if they aren't playing with total intensity right now..

Nuneaton vs. Luton... I'm thinking Under 2.5 goals @ 1.65 SS
Man Utd/Over 2.5 vs. Real Madrid... Yeah, Over @ 1.6 SS
Dortmund/Over 2.5 vs. Shakhtar... Definitely, Over @ 1.95 SS
Sparta Prague vs. Vysocina Jihlava... Home win @ 1.3 SS

EXCHANGE RATE: 6.69

Luton:They've actually gone under 2.5 goals in their last six away games, and before that run started, they were sitting at about ten unders to just two overs, I guess.
Champions League: Both teams coming off wins from their last match, though honestly, calling them "wins" feels like a massive stretch and I think everyone knows it... To be real, I'm expecting over 2.5 goals in both, but the odds are just trash right now...
Sparta:They haven't conceded a single goal in their last five league matches, and they've scored nine times—so like, a 9:0 ratio—whereas things look a bit different for Jihlava, where they had one game end 1:4 over a five-game stretch. I should probably mention this is a cup rematch after a 1:1 draw, but I really feel like the gap in quality and current momentum is just way too huge for it to matter.

West Ham vs. Tottenham... Under 2.5 @ 1.80

So, looking at their last 13 away games, the total goals were only under 2.5 about three times, but I guess it's kinda wild because that happened in their most recent 3 matches—so maybe there's a tiny, tiny chance they hit the under again, though it feels like a long shot, I guess. :-)

Galatasaray vs. Orduspor... Home win @ 1.40

Honestly, without overthinking it too much, I just don't see how Orduspor can even compete here, like, seriously. In my humble opinion, guys like Yilmaz, Drogba, and Sneijder are probably just way too much for a team sitting in 15th place, especially since they managed to score 5 goals back in their 11th match...

hollowwalker10 said:MLS matchup: LA Galaxy vs. Portland Timbers F+2 @ 2.80ss
2nd game against the last guy... LA looks like they're 6-2-1 with 23 goals scored and 7 against... lately they've been on fire, maybe winning 5 straight+3
Portland is more like 1-3-5 with 8:10

My bad if I messed anything up for anyone... honestly, this just looked like such a total gift that I kind of lost my head and maybe went a bit too heavy, like I put half my bankroll on it or something...🙂

Good luck everyone, I'm gonna go take a bit of a longer break

Chicago vs. St. Louis over 2.5 goals @ 2.80
Looking at the matchup against their last opponent... Chicago is sitting at 6-2-1 with a goal differential of 23-7, while they've scored in 5 straight games +3
St. Louis is coming in at 1-3-5 with an 8-10 record

0/1

Inter Miami vs. Orlando City @2,05ss[/B
-The leaders at home are killing it with 10 wins, 2 losses, and just 1 draw, plus they've been scoring like crazy with a 26:12 goal ratio
-Orlando is sitting pretty in 3rd place with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses... kind of a shaky 13:11 goal spread
-Last time these two met back on August 12th, Orlando walked away with a solid 4-1 win

Seattle Sounders vs. Portland Timbers @1,5ss
-Seattle is looking strong at home with 9 wins, 2 losses, and zero draws, and man, that 26:6 goal difference is wild
-Portland has been struggling on the road, picking up only 2 wins and 3 draws while giving up 18 goals compared to their 9 scored (and honestly, they've lost 4 of their last 5 away games, maybe just one draw there)

🙂My bad, I might have misread someone there, but I guess those odds weren't actually all that crazy anyway

Hafnarfjodur 1@ 2.00ss

It’s basically an Icelandic derby, which I guess explains why the odds look like that, but honestly, if you just look at how they've been playing lately, I feel like this should be a pretty easy win