Esbjerg vs Odense... I'm thinking 1 at 1.80 odds Waregem/Odense 3+ vs Brugge... maybe a draw at 1.80
Ticket #9: everything above plus Anderlecht. I'd say it's a solid 5/10 chance
- looking at the standings right now, Esbjerg is sitting pretty at first, while Odense is basically dead last. Esbjerg is actually getting kind of close to being just 2 points ahead of Aalborg, which would put them right in that Europa League qualifying spot - honestly, if you listen to what Roger Phillips was saying... plus, I really feel like both teams are gonna find the back of the net, because back in 2013, West Ham only failed to score at home once, whereas these guys have been scoring on every single away match this season, so I guess an Odense 3+ win is possible
35/28 (93.42% win rate on parlays and singles) Tickets 0/6 (0/11)
Aston Villa vs Chelsea.................2 @ 1.90ss Schalke vs Stuttgart.......................1 @ 1.40ss Go Ahead Eagles / Over 2.5 + Dortmund...Yes @ 1.70ss
8.L: the stuff above + USA (1x) + gas (1x) for 2/10
-So, Chelsea hasn't even locked in their Champions League spot yet, and they're looking way sharper right now, and I don't even need to mention how good they are... The "issue" with this pick, I guess, is just that Villa isn't 100% safe from relegation yet (though I really doubt that happens).. maybe that's why the odds look like that, but I honestly think they'll be hunting for that point in the final round, which they probably won't even need unless Wigan somehow pulls off an upset against Arsenal🙂- so yeah, I'm skeptical.. -Schalke needs this one big time for CL qualification, whereas Stuttgart kind of doesn't give a damn about anything else at this point. Schalke form: 7-1-2 (20:10) Stuttgart form: 3-2-5 (9:13) -The Dutch second division is pretty much famous for the over 2.5 goals thing, and these guys are playing promotion playoffs, specifically the second leg of the semis, and since Eagles were down a man and lost 2-1, then ended up drawing 3-3, they're actually way stronger than people think, so maybe just picking them outright would be safer than the combo (even if the odds are a tiny bit lower at 1.65), but I guess I'm just a slave to my habits, so whatever..🙂
P.S. Huge props to driftingcrane27 and slybison8 for yesterday—that was absolute perfection.👍
7.L: this over 2.5+; +Livorno-1x; +GazMet-1x for 3/10
So, Elfsborg finally woke up after that rough patch of four losses in a row and they’ve managed to string together three wins now. They're finishing 5 out of 7 matches with the over, and honestly, they only failed to score in just one of those games. As for Norrköping... they've hit the over in 6 out of 7 matches (and 5 out of 7 for the over 2.5+), so I guess I really feel like the over 2.5+ could happen today too, kind of like how you'd look at a decent line on a Lakers game, maybe Elfsborg should take it, but this coefficient just looks pretty solid to me so...
33/28 (91.41% steady scoring and soloing) Tickets 0/6 (0/11)
Chicago/Memphis... No @ 1.55
Chicago hit the over 2.5 line in 1 out of their last 10 games, though they managed it 3/10 at home Memphis was 1/10 lately... but hey, they actually hit it 5/10 times before, though they were only 1/6 back in 2013 Honestly, I don't think there's any real "value" here given the odds, especially since we're talking about a massive pile of cash, but I guess they'll probably just keep playing like this, so...
30/27 (89.05% win rate on over/under and totals) Tickets 0/5 (0/9)
Chelsea/Tottenham Over 2.5 goals... Yes @ 1.95 Real Madrid/Malaga Over 2.5 goals... Yes @ 2.00 FC Cincinnati/Columbus Crew Over 2.5 goals... Yes @ 2.40 LA Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake (2:2)... 1 @ 1.30 6th ticket - 2/10
-So Chelsea (68%), Arsenal (67%), and Spurs (65%) are all right there, but honestly, Chelsea and Spurs have fewer games left, maybe like 2 or 3 weeks until the season wraps up, and they're both fighting for those 3rd or 4th spots to clinch a Champions League berth or at least a qualifying spot. If Chelsea pulls this one off today, they’d pretty much lock in that qualification, and they look solid lately—like 7-2-1 with an 18:8 goal split—and they just don't seem to lose at home since mid-January against Southampton (which was a 2:2 draw in the MLS). Spurs are 6-2-2 overall and 5-3-2 away, scoring about 18 and conceding 12, but man, Spurs haven't really beaten Chelsea on the road since way back in '98 (or whatever my buddy tells me about their head-to-head history), so I guess maybe it's finally their time, but I think I'll skip betting on the first one just to be safe... -Real Madrid is playing this specific type of bet a ton lately, and Malaga hasn't gone two whole games without scoring all season, so I'm thinking they won't fail to find the net today either... They've slumped a little recently, but I guess that's probably just because they're focused on the Champions League and lost some motivation, though that shouldn't really be an issue today given what's at stake. -Cincinnati and Columbus are both grinding for those conference tournament spots, and Columbus had this run where they hit the Over 2.5 in 5 out of 6 away games before hitting three draws in a row, so I'm feeling like they might bounce back to the Over again today... Plus, looking at their recent matchups, the last four times they played, it ended exactly like this. -It's the second leg of the semifinals... they've got a good result from the first match, but I doubt they'll settle for a clean sheet today. They won a trophy once but then sort of fell off in the league standings, so their form has slipped a bit, but since the cup is the main goal now, they should be super serious, and I honestly wouldn't doubt them getting the win.
30/25 (92%, 29% constant hits and soloing) Tickets 0/5 (0/9)
Chicago All Boys vs Estudiantes LA (05/07 00:20) 1 2.40ss Arsenal Sarandi vs Newell's SF (05/07 02:30) X2 1.35ss Since we’re only at Week 11, there aren't really any solid stats to go on just yet, but based on how things have been looking so far, I guess this might actually work out.
HOME
5. All Boys 5 3 2 0 8:3 11 8. Arsenal Sarandi 5 3 1 1 6:5 10 AWAY
1. Newells Old Boys 5 4 1 0 12:5 13 20. Estudiantes 5 0 2 3 4:7 2
-Polten has won 5 in a row and they're playing today, so I guess I’m gonna try to break that streak... so yeah, maybe 1 or 2—meaning Polten wins. Honestly, who knows, especially since Horn is fighting just to stay in the league.. -The Blue Crew has gone 8 games without conceding a goal—not since that derby back in Seattle (man, that really was some controlled football🙄). Obviously, I'm looking to break this streak too, because for Rijeka, this game actually matters, whereas the Blue Crew have already secured things... though sometimes they should care more, but against Rijeka today? I seriously doubt it, so I'm expecting an open game with tons of goals.. Rijeka has been playing high-scoring ball for the last 4 or 5 games. This match is huge for them if they want to qualify for the Europa League, because it's getting crowded—they're battling for 2nd and 3rd place against the crazy fans, Split, and Dukhaj at around 48 points each, and with 4 games left, everything is still totally up in the air..
So, Benfica and Porto are both sitting just one point ahead, and honestly, I feel like Benfica just absolutely has to pull this off today if they want to have a stress-free run through these last three weeks... and I mean, looking at the numbers, it’s just INSANE 22-4-0 (70:15), their home form is 9-1-0 (29:3) and away is 9-1-0 (23:5)... Martinsborough isn't exactly a pushover since they've only lost once at home, but I'm leaning toward a 2-goal margin today, mostly because I just can't see Benfica throwing away everything they've worked for all season against an opponent that looks pretty weak on paper compared to them.. (If anyone knows the American soccer scene better than me, please jump in—stats can be tricky sometimes, I guess) Now, for Lech to actually stay in the title hunt—they're only 2 points and about 6k behind—they really need a win today, but man, these guys have already beaten them twice by a score of 2-0 this season, so it might get interesting.. They haven't conceded a goal in their last five away games, but I'm kind of hoping that streak ends today.. I was thinking about taking over 2.5 goals, but I don't want to get too greedy, so 1.80 seems like a pretty decent play..
26/22 (93.05% win rate on my parlays) Tickets 0/2 (0/2)
Los Angeles FC/Miami Heat...Double Chance Yes @ 1.20 St. Louis/Columbus..........1x @ 1.20 Seattle/Portland.................x2 @ 1.20 3rd Ticket: the stuff above + maybe a little extra juice from jadewolf16's pick (around 1.35 per bet) which brings the total odds to about 4.07....so 1/10I barely scraped by in the final seconds yesterday, so I guess today should be a pretty smooth ride for me if things go right😉
LAFC is winning at home about 7/10 times when they take the double chance, and Miami is looking good away at 6/10... Miami played out two 0-0 draws recently, but I think they’ll find the back of the net today since this game is huge for their playoff push, which LAFC already secured by making the deep run in the tournament (I'm not totally sure about that though, like, I don't know if it matters if the cup winner qualifies for Europe anyway, and maybe Miami could end up being a top seed and just jump straight into the qualifiers regardless...). Anyway, I'm thinking LAFC is gonna play some aggressive offense because, honestly, that's really all they know how to do. Their last game was like two months ago and they won 3-2, so I'm kind of hoping for another crazy high-scoring game like that today. Standings: W D L GP Pts 1. St. Louis 10 9- 1- 0 (27:7) 28 2. Columbus 10 8 -0 -2 (22:7) 24 3. Austin FC 10 5 3 2 16:12 18 4. Real Salt Lake 10 4 4 2 13:12 16 5. FC Dallas 10 2 4 4 9:15 10 6. Colorado Rapids 10 2 3 5 7:14 9 7. Seattle Sounders 10 2 -2 -6 (13:15) 8 8. Portland Timbers 10 1 -5 -4 (13:22 8 9. Atlanta United 10 1 4 5 11:16 7 10. LA Galaxy 10 1 4 5 8:19 7
# Team W D L GP Pts 1. St. Louis 15 10- 1- 4 (33:18) 31 2. Columbus 15 10 -0 -5 (32:17) 30 3. Real Salt Lake 15 8 5 2 20:13 29 4. Austin FC 15 7 4 4 24:21 25 5. Portland Timbers 15 4- 7- 4 (27:31) 19 6. LA Galaxy 15 5 4 6 17:22 19 7. Colorado Rapids 15 4 5 6 13:19 17 8. FC Dallas 15 3 5 7 16:25 14 9. Seattle Sounders 15 3- 4- 8 (17:24) 13 10. Atlanta United 15 2 5 8 17:24 11
Basel vs. Chelsea FC.....I’m thinking over 2.5 goals @ 2.15
I mean, Basel can pretty much score on anyone, I guess... like, look at their last two Champions League matches against Tottenham, they ended up 2-2 both times. On the flip side, the Blues had those games against Zenit where they went 3-1 and 2-3, so that kind of works in our favor, maybe? Out of Basel's last 15 total matches across all competitions, they only failed to score in two of them, and even at home, in their last 15, they only missed out on scoring three times.. Chelsea seems to be hitting their peak right at the end of the season, too :-) in their last 10 games they've always managed to find the back of the net (they scored once in three games and more than one in the others), and 7 out of those 10 ended with this kind of goal count, so I’m really hoping it happens again today... Basel doesn't often hit the over 2.5 mark, but I think that's mostly just because their opponents can't keep up, so I don't see why they'd have any trouble against Chelsea. The only thing giving me pause is that they haven't 100% locked up the Premier League title yet, since the top of the table in England is such a mess right now (well, except for Ferguson's squad, obviously), but they should pull away by the 28th, and with a game against Swansea coming up, they probably shouldn't panic too much.. In my opinion, Basel's only real shot at making something happen at home—even though they totally cruised through the first round, though they usually do that more because they underestimate people or just get caught up in the moment—is if they try to push for at least two goals, which would just leave huge gaps for Chelsea to exploit, so I feel like this pick is actually pretty realistic..
So, I've been eyeing this matchup since last week (was it Friday? when Horn was at home). I actually went with the +3 goal handicap back then because Horn was playing at home, but man, that ended up being a 0:3 loss with Kapfenberg grabbing 2 goals... anyway, I don't really have much else to dig into today. Just thought I'd mention for anyone else interested, the odds on Kapfenberg before that Friday game were sitting at 2.10, so...
So, I haven't done a ton of deep dives on Esbjerg, but look, Roger Phillips has his takes, and I guess I'll just scribble down what I'm thinking... Basically, they've been in incredible form all spring; they've won 6 straight at home—just looking at league play—and in their last 10 home games, they're sitting at 8-2-0 (counting those 2 cup matches). The tricky part about picking them is that they don't concede much; in those 10 home games, they only let in 3 goals. But then you look at Midtjylland, who have been scoring pretty much every single week for their last 10 outings, so... when it comes to form, I honestly think Esbjerg is way stronger at home than they are away, so maybe it's worth trying a 1 @2.30ss">bet..@2.30ss Emmen have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 home games, and 5 of those ended with over 2.5 goals. They're hovering near the bottom of the table, but they aren't exactly easy to beat... On the flip side, Combuur is chasing direct promotion to the First Division, and if they pull this win, they'd be just 2 points behind first place (Vollendam), so they'll definitely be playing for the win. Away from home, they've scored in 8 of their last 10, and the over 2.5 goal line hit 5 out of 10 times. Anyway, we all know how unpredictable this league can be, and my last two picks went totally sideways (0:0 twice), so if anyone wants to take that into account... Elfsborg has had 4 draws in 4 rounds, but I really feel like they'll grab their first win today—as in their 5th game. I don't really see the visitors pulling an upset here (they've gone 0-1-2 with a 1:8 goal difference), so I guess only the home win seems realistic to me.. As for the quality gap between Manchester United and Ville, it's almost not even worth talking about. It's more a question of motivation—which you never lack in England—but what I mean is: Villa needs to scrape together a few more points if they want to stay in the league (more than 3 points clear of the drop zone), though I'm not sure how doable that is against today's hosts. Because if my math is right, thanks to that massive blunder by the "Citizens" yesterday, a win today could actually let me start celebrating the title..
good luck everyone!
Edit: Now that I'm looking back at this... :-) maybe I should skip that Man United game after all. I wasn't really banking on that 1.25, I just added it to the list as a filler so it would cancel out the Man United bet if I chose not to play it. It doesn't matter to me since I already cashed out, but... I don't want to mess anyone else up. I'm not sure how much sense it makes to force a title celebration in the preseason, especially against an opponent that's 3 points above them.. and all that just for 1.25..
Montpellier/Lyon......Yes@2,20ss Horn/Kapfenberg......Yes@1,75ss Zadar/Chicago.......yes@1,20ss total with MT:4,40 stake 1/10
Lyon really shouldn't mess this up again, because they aren't even a lock for those European spots (LP), since there are four teams fighting for that 3rd spot (between 53 and 56 points)... They lost their last two away games against teams that weren't even as tough as Montpellier (who are the 2nd best home team in the league at 10-4-2 with a goal diff of 30:11). Lyon's away record is 6-5-5 (21:19). I'm expecting a win for Montpellier, though maybe Lyon finds the net, but to me, this feels like the safer pick just so we don't end up stuck with some random 2:2 draw, especially since the odds are basically the same.. Kapfenberg has been absolutely killing it since the spring season started—they've gone 7-1-2 in their last 10 matches (23:10), and on the road lately, they're 4-0-1 (14:5)... so I guess I think they'll take it, but I'm kind of held back by the fact that I'm not totally sure what their recent form actually implies, whereas with Horn, the situation is a bit different—they're 4 points clear of the relegation zone and really shouldn't be dropping easy points at home, so they'll definitely be playing tough. In their last 10 home games, they only failed to score three times, and in those 7 out of 10 games where they did score, they never stopped at just one goal... meanwhile, in Kapfenberg's last four wins, they only gave up one goal to Groening (1st place), and for all the others, it was at least three, and they conceded in all three, so... yeah, I mean, I think they'll win and the odds are much higher, but this one just feels more solid to me. Chicago really needs to pull this one off, but I'm not entirely convinced... so I'm playing it this way because it seems like only the big heavyweights haven't managed to score at least once in their last 10 home games..
I mean, Ejsberg is looking seriously good lately, especially when they're playing at home where they've basically been steamrolling everyone since 2013 (like, they crushed their last two friendlies with an 11:2 goal spread), so I guess they've managed to pull themselves away from the bottom of the table. It’s kind of wild because Br. is barely staying afloat just because of their goal difference—they're tied with the bottom three teams all on 27 points—but I really think today is a massive game, and honestly, that's why I'm taking this bet. I feel like Br. might already have their heads turned toward their matchup against Silkeborg, which they absolutely have to win if they want to stay in the league, so they might not be fully locked in here.. It's probably a bit tough to draw any real conclusions after only three games, but looking at the numbers: IFK is sitting at 2-1-0 with a 5:0 goal count, while Syr is struggling at 0-1-2 with 0:4, so yeah, based on their head-to-head history, Göteborg has taken three wins and Syrianska has only grabbed one..
So, West Ham has been scoring like crazy at home over their last 10 games, but honestly, betting on Over 2.5 hasn't really hit three times in a row for them lately—it actually failed five times out of the last fifteen... so regarding West Ham, I guess it’s a solid pick, but then again, things aren't exactly looking great on the other side either because, man, the Red Devils have only covered an Over 2.5 away once in their last 10 outings... though, if you think about it, that one time was actually against this exact opponent in a 2-2 draw (and they've hit Over 2.5 four times away in their last 15), so I'm kind of expecting, and maybe even hoping, for something similar today... maybe a 1-2 result and we'll just see what happens.
17/14 (97.7% hit rate with constant staking and "fancy play")
Barça/PSG over 2.5 goals... Yeah @ 1.95ss Juve/Bayern over 2.5 goals... Yeah @ 2.15ss *Juve/Bayern both score - Yes @ 3.60ss
About these over 2.5 bets: I guess I played all 4 last week thinking they were sure things, and man, only 1 actually hit, but I'm still gonna go out on a limb and say all 4 matches will end that way again. Why? Honestly, I just don't feel like overthinking it right now... and I really don't want to deal with looking like a total clown later if I post something ten minutes before kickoff, so I won't dig through the stats right this second, but since I follow more than just local college ball, and this is the Champions League—which is basically the biggest money-maker in sports—the guys I'm writing for are probably pretty well informed anyway... Barça supposedly is missing half their squad, specifically Messi🙂, but I mean, I think they can still find the back of the net—especially because PSG has to chase at least 2 goals just to have a prayer—and I say 2, because in my gut, Barça is definitely scoring at least one, and I'm no genius, so I figure even Charles Patel68 knows that and won't bank on a 0-1 result that would theoretically put them through... As for Juve, what's there to say that everyone doesn't already know? Just like PSG, they need 2 goals (though for them it’s strictly a minimum of 2) to advance. -Scenario 1: I'm thinking they won't sit around waiting like Valencia (if I remember right) and they'll go for at least 1 right away (which is why I have that 3rd bet type) and then just try to "play their game"—basically trying not to concede until maybe the 82nd minute and then going full "brute force" for that 2nd goal to force overtime... That feels like the only way they move on, because if Bayern scores (and I think they will—I have a feeling those German guys are gonna let Dybala slip through again, though I'm not betting on that specific odds), they'd need 4 goals to... and Bayern isn't quite *that* clinical... -Scenario 2: Juve doesn't go for the goal immediately, they just focus on keeping a clean sheet until halfway through the second half and then suddenly "bam!" In that case, our 2nd and 3rd bets are probably going straight down the drain... To me, Scenario 1 looks more likely because, simply put, they'll try to score early and hope that Bayern doesn't start pressing them too hard in the meantime... Now, hope dies last, but I'm telling you, I think Bayern will score at least once too, so people should be wondering about that as well...
*..Pretty "heavy" pick (scenario 1) and I'm playing it purely for the system odds to make a little pocket change
I mean, we all think we have these teams totally figured out, right? 🙂 But I just wanted to explain my logic here... I’m guessing Sevilla is going to find the back of the net, and honestly, I bet the Germans know that too. From what I've been following this season, it feels like they play this crazy style where "offense is the best defense," and I don't see why this match would be any different. If Sevilla scores first, the German side is gonna need two to win, so I really feel like they’re gonna come out swinging early to grab an opening goal, then maybe settle into a rhythm for a second or third one so they don't end up stuck chasing two goals in the 75th minute because of some stupid mistake. In their last game, man, I swear it felt like it should've been a 4:2 scoreline... and now they're playing at home in front of a packed stadium. As long as Sevilla gets just one, I think the Germans can handle the rest.
15/13 (91.5% if you include the parlays and those solo bets)
Hartford vs St. Paul... 2 @ 2.50ss Linz vs Groding........... 2 @ 2.00ss
Man, if you're wondering about St. Paul, just check out what Roger Phillips put together and everything will probably make sense to you guys. They've got the best offense in the league with 54 goals, but man, they also have the second worst defense with 48, so... plus, they aren't even exactly in amazing shape lately: overall they're 1-2-2 (7:8) and away they're 1-2-2 (10:12), but you can tell they score pretty consistently, so I was initially thinking maybe a 3+ goal total... but then I saw how much of a disaster Hartford actually is, which is basically what "Doc" showed us... so I guess it might be worth taking a shot on this one. Linz is sitting at the bottom of the league, and their home record is 2-4-7 (15-21) while their recent form is 1-3-1 (7-5), and honestly, if you were just looking at that recent form, it wouldn't look too bad, but they're playing Groding away, who is currently 2nd and tied on points with the top team. I don't want to say this is some massive do-or-die game for promotion since there's still about ten rounds left, but if they can't grab points against the last-place team while chasing 1st place, then 🙂 Groding away is 8-2-3 (22:14) and their recent form is 3-0-2 (6:6)—so if you were only looking at current form, you might think they're somewhat close, which makes the odds look okay, but I'm pretty sure Groding is the stronger squad if they can actually prove it on the field.
Albion doesn't really seem to care one way or the other, I guess, like they're just vibing through it, but honestly, they’ve been pretty solid at home lately... (9-2-4, though they had a rough patch once, but then pulled off those last two 2:1 wins) whereas Arsenal is out there fighting for the Champions League and every single match feels massive for them. 6-5-4. I think Arsenal really needs to step up their intensity and actually go for the win (and they probably should), but man, I feel like West Brom might sneak in at least one goal, maybe even two, so this pick feels just a tiny bit safer than going straight for the 2, even if the odds are basically the same. If you're worried about West Brom failing to score, just play the 2, because Arsenal is definitely getting one.
I guess I’m sticking to the stats again because, man, Manchester United is just on another level lately—they've gone 14-0-1 in their last 15 matches, and honestly, they're the only team in the conference without a single draw in that stretch, which is wild given their 38:9 goal difference. On the flip side, Wrexham hasn't lost a home game in their last 10, going 4-6-0 with a solid 23:10 goal difference, so unless Wrexham pulls an upset—which I really don't see happening—one of these trends has to hit... Since Wrexham has been scoring big at home in their last two, I'm pretty sure they'll find the net, and I actually think Mansfield might pull off a win (2.70), but that weird streak where nobody has drawn in 15 games is throwing me for a loop, so maybe a 1-1 draw works for both my main play and my backup. I can't say for sure, but if I were feeling gutsy, I'd probably grab a 1-1 exact score for a small amount just to cover my bases in case the underdog ruins my bigger bet...