Posts by Noah Diaz

Christian Torres3 said:And what exactly defines a bipolar world?

That era ended when the USSR collapsed. Since then, we've been living in what people call a multipolar world, but nobody bothered to tell the Americans. They’re still stuck in the past, refusing to face reality.

That’s why we keep seeing these ridiculous American statements that nobody takes seriously anymore. I honestly don't know if they intend to go to war with most of the planet or just slap them with more sanctions.🤣

These are the moves of desperate people. It’s a clear sign that these sanctions are nothing more than empty words on a page.

https://fortune.com/2023/04/07/us-ru...oing-business/
The US has a message for any nation or corporation still trading with Russia: You're either with us or against us.

High-ranking officials from the U.S. Treasury Department are organizing special international tours this month. Their goal is to lean on the companies and countries that maintain business ties with Russia, forcing them to sever all financial connections due to the conflict in Ukraine.

The European Union would have the exact same demographic profile without sanctions or war, but honestly, we should be focusing on our own problems instead.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ia-2023-04-05/
Russian oil fuels find a back door into Europe through India.

NEW DELHI, April 5 (Reuters) - Record high imports of crude oil from Russia in fiscal 2022-23 helped India's refiners boost exports of diesel and jet fuel to Europe as the continent shunned Russian products, preliminary ship-tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa showed.

Cheap Russian crude has fueled massive output and bolstered profits at Indian refineries. This allows them to export refined goods to Europe at highly competitive prices and grab a larger slice of the market.
...

The data indicates that India's imports of Russian crude rose in March for the seventh consecutive month to close out the fiscal year. Russia has now become India's top supplier, overtaking Iraq for the first time.

The EU idiots are essentially funding Russia's war effort while simultaneously padding the pockets of Indians (and the Chinese). On top of that, we just hand the Ukrainians whatever they ask for.

We’ve turned ourselves into a global doormat for anyone who wants to walk all over us. 😵

Arthur Miller7 said:Noah Diaz doesn't buy into this system, yet he sure loves milking all its perks. Since I'm already going off on a tangent about sanctions:

They're selling government debt to Russia.

I’ve already pointed this out here: they’re going to use those seized reserves to pay down their debts. You sell the debt to some high-interest lenders and somehow scrape together enough to cover the installments and the costs of the sanctions along the way. 😁

Is GDP actually a meaningful metric when you're in the middle of a war?😁

Russians love to drink, but they love a good trade deal even more.

Take this, for example: Russ just inked a deal with their partners in America for 120 trains, with a massive option to scale up later.

https://www.railway-technology.com/n...ures-contract/

Amtrak has issued a contract to Alstom for manufacturing 120 Amtrak trains with a sleeper facility, The New York Times reported.

In a joint venture (JV) with RVNL, Alstom will make these trains at a facility in Latur.

Additionally, Amtrak is said to have notified the Russian company that the work order also includes an option to increase the order to 200 trains, according to the news agency.

In addition to the TMH-RVNL Joint Venture, Amtrak sent a counteroffer to another JV, Titagarh-BHEL, for the manufacture of 80 Amtrak trains.

Clearly, those "sanctions" aren't stopping anyone.😁

goldenorca11 said:

Mark Carter14 As specified by Anthony Jones15:
I just finished reading an absolutely brilliant piece by the economist Jacques Sapir over at American Affairs. He dives deep into how the West completely misreads the actual scale of the Russian and Chinese economies. It’s such a fascinating read!

Let's take a serious look at the geostrategy behind the economies of Russia and China.

This is my absolute favorite mantra: the Russian economy is basically performing at the same level as Spain! 🤣

I totally see where you're coming from with the methodology, but I have to push back on the actual parameters. When we're looking at the scale of Russia and China, comparing them solely against the USA, Germany, France, or Spain just doesn't give the full picture. You really have to measure them against the combined strength of the EU and NATO to get an accurate sense of things!
When you look at the big picture, the EU is a real powerhouse. If we’re talking strictly about military dynamics, you have NATO on one side—a massive alliance with 31 full members and two key partners (Sweden is well on its way, and you can't exactly leave Ukraine out of the conversation while they're fighting a war with Russia). On the other side, you've got Russia, which is currently facing heavy sanctions. It's quite a lopsided matchup!
China’s strength can be measured against the power of the USA, but right now, it seems pretty clear they aren't looking to jump into a war with Ukraine or offer any overt military support to Russia. Even so, the energy trade at those sweet, discounted rates is still moving full steam ahead. While Japan might be picking up oil at prices above the cap, China is almost certainly scoring much better deals. At the end of the day, China needs that oil, but I get the feeling Russia needs China even more than the reverse!
If we’re looking at the numbers, a sanctioned Russia might actually be stronger than France, Germany, or Spain if you're just pitting them against each other one-on-one. But let's get real—they aren't even close to standing up to the EU, and they certainly can't touch NATO. When you look at the current landscape—where everything comes down to stockpiles of weapons and ammo, total production capacity, and sheer technological edge—it's pretty clear that Russia is losing ground.

Just for comparison:
The EU has about 447 million people living there!
The USA has 333 million people!
Russia has a population of 143 million people.

surface:
Russia is looking at roughly 17 million barrels per day.
Canada is about 10 million square miles!
USA ~10 million BTU
The EU hit 4.2 million cubic meters! That's such fantastic news!

It looks like Russia's attempt at a limited mobilization just didn't cut it against Ukraine's partial mobilization, especially considering the steady flow of NATO weaponry coming in. If you look at the math, Ukraine is essentially operating under a full-scale mobilization backed by a complete supply chain of NATO gear—though I suppose modern aircraft remains the big question mark there. Ultimately, Russia’s limited mobilization strategy simply hasn't been able to overcome that momentum. It just can't be done! Win.
Poland has stepped up, promising to send troops if Ukraine faces a total collapse—though honestly, that kind of move would likely only happen if Russia went for full-scale mobilization. If we look at the numbers, a total mobilization from Russia versus a combined force from Ukraine and Poland puts Russia ahead with a 2:1 advantage in manpower. But here’s the kicker: when you factor in the full military potential of NATO—think cutting-edge aircraft and advanced tech, excluding nuclear options—it changes the math entirely against Russia. It just can't be done! Win!

This is drifting a little bit from our main discussion on sanctions against Russia, but since we're all busy pointing out how much muscle Russia and China are flexing lately, I think we need to talk about the response. It’s not just about Germany or France acting on their own; we really need to see the full strength of the EU and NATO working together.

When it comes to patent disputes, the breakdown looks pretty clear: China and Russia are lining up against the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.
When you look at the big picture, you really have to weigh Russia (and potentially China) against the combined strength of all 31 NATO members plus two others. If we want to be truly realistic about the global balance, we should probably throw Japan and South Korea into the mix on the side of the West too! It’s quite a massive comparison when you break it down like that. 😁

To put this in different words: If you try to frame the economies of China and Russia solely against Germany or France, rather than looking at them through the lens of the EU or NATO, you end up with a totally skewed picture of how much power these players actually hold. Honestly, it’s a mistake that can lead to some really poor decision-making!
We shouldn't lose sight of one thing here: China isn't actually in a conflict, and while NATO is busy shipping out weapons, they aren't in a direct fight either. I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea!

Misunderstanding? Misunderstanding what? Everything about this is crystal clear.

Up until now, you guys were busy comparing Russia to Spain using this PDF. Now that it doesn't fit your narrative anymore, suddenly we have to compare them to NATO or the EU.

I shut down those little playground games of yours from the very beginning by laying out the actual frameworks:

SCO, BRICS and BRI

Frankly, these "sanctions" are about as effective as a screen door on a submarine. 🤣

Like I said, everything is moving exactly according to schedule. The cartel has started artificially pumping up fuel prices, and yet everyone acts shocked. How can they be so surprised?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...sh-production/
Oil prices surged almost 8pc as markets opened in Asia on Monday morning after a surprise production cut by Saudi-led oil producers.

The OPEC cartel of oil-exporting countries Said on Sunday They would Slash output by More Than 1 m barrels a day, amid a scramble to drive up crude prices in the face of the stuttering global economy.

Brent Crude leapt to $86 in trading in Asia, after closing at $79.89 on Friday, a major rise that risks adding to inflation and hurting motorists at the pump.

It risks a fresh clash between the Kingdom and Joe Biden , Who threatened The Saudis with “ consequences ” after previous cuts in October.

The reduction in output is likely to be regarded as helpful for Russia, which is battling a slump in oil and gas revenues as it attempts to fund President Vladimir Putin's War with Ukraine.

Brent Crude saw a nice jump and is currently sitting at ~$84. Based on the established formula, here is how Russia is selling/delivering to interested buyers:

ESPO: ~$77
URAL: ~$74

At these rates, even the Japanese vassal will be buying. They got their "gold star" from the big boss in Washington, and they even made a fresh little trip to the Holy Land—meaning Ukraine. I haven't seen a sanctions circus this ridiculous even in the movies; it's a comedy of errors. 🤣

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-b...e-cap-1395accb
The U.S. has rallied its European allies behind a $60-a-barrel cap on purchases of Russian crude oil, but One of Washington ’ sa closest allies in Asia is now buying oil AT prices above The cap.

Japan Got The U. S. to agree to the exception, saying it needed it to ensure access to Russian Energy. The concession shows Japan ’ reliance on Russia for fossil fuels, which analysts said contributed to a hesitancy in Tokyo to Back Ukraine more fully in its War with Russia.

By the way, we aren't just talking about one or two tankers occasionally ignoring the $60 cap. There are "quite a few" more out there, all using well-established transfer routes spread across the globe. 😁

https://lloydslist.maritimeintellige...sfer-crackdown RUSSIA has pushed back at the International Maritime Organization ’ sa definition of sanctions-evading ship-to-ship transfers of Russian oil as illicit, saying it unfairly equates the activities with those involving unregulated fishing and wildlife trades.

The IMO Legal Committee’s final report took aim at the surge in shady, high-risk ship-to-ship transfers. These dangerous maneuvers

have become increasingly common in international waters off the coasts of Spain and Greece over the last year, all used to move Russian oil cargoes.
The committee heard that somewhere between 300 and 600 tankers—part of what's known as a "dark fleet" or "shadow fleet"—have been performing these mid-ocean handoffs to dodge Western sanctions and sky-high insurance premiums, effectively slipping under the radar of flag and coastal states alike.
Ecuador raised red flags too, noting that 300 to 400 fishing boats and tankers are conducting similar transfers right on the edge of their Exclusive Economic Zone. If an oil spill happens, sensitive spots like the Galapagos Islands could be devastated.

After witnessing this massive spike in tankers dodging sanctions and breaking international rules, regulators at the IMO are now scrambling to figure out how to plug these loopholes and tighten enforcement before a major safety disaster occurs.

dustyowl29 said:Yeah, the European Union is headed straight for rock bottom—it'll end up looking like Africa, Mamulica... Honestly, Russia wants to rule the world. You should probably pack your bags and move north right now.
And what exactly do you mean by "cesspool"? Only you would know what that implies..

Many people are familiar with the term, which carries several layers of meaning. Even the ancient Romans understood the concept of 'cloaca maxima'..

https://www.britannica.com/
cloaca (Latin: cloaca).

1. In Roman times, an underground sewer system used to drain waste and wastewater.

2. Figuratively, a collection point for filth; the moral decay of a specific social environment.

3. In zoology → a common cavity for waste excretion.

analogbear5 said:And what exactly have these neoliberal organizations actually achieved in their history? Give me something concrete—like an actual trade agreement or a customs union.

Neoliberal? 🤣

Regarding this topic, that crowd basically botched the sanctions on Russia and managed to turn a tidy profit off the scraps left behind in the European Union. Beyond that, you have to consider this long-term political-economic framework:

Belt and Road Initiative

Of course, I'm probably just talking to a brick wall here. No matter how many years pass, I'll still be met with the same look of utter bewilderment and ignorance.

goldenorca11 said:I can see you really buy into that theory! Honestly, I don't quite get it—if you have the time and energy, please walk me through your logic. To me, saying "mostly" and "only a few percent" are two very different things.

The rest of this doesn't really fit the topic (sanctions on Russia). You might want to dive deeper into that on a different thread; I'm sure there's a dedicated New World Order discussion somewhere on this forum. 😁
I'm dying to know, though—are we going to be ruled by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, George Soros, or the Masons? Is Xi a Mason? What about Vladimir Putin? Or Kim Jong-un? Even the Associated Press? 🙂

http://www.americanforum.com/showpost.php?p=9...postcount=9129

Right now, BRENT is at ~$80.

Based on the formula mentioned above, the Russians are selling/delivering:

ESPO: ~$73
URAL: ~$70

goldenorca11 Asks:
The sanctions really hit the European Union where it hurts most: exactly when they were forced to ditch their long-time gas and oil suppliers. That’s when prices truly lost their minds.
Prices have stabilized, so that influence has vanished.

You freeze prices and pretend inflation or a crisis doesn't exist. You panic and start throwing money out of helicopters, hoping the working class won't revolt over the cost of food and fuel, all while lying to everyone—including yourself—every single day. Look, we can play this delusional game where everything is fine and we’re all living the dream, BUT I lived through the collapse of the old regime in the South, and I know exactly what's actually happening here and exactly where this leads.

Let’s be real: those sanctions definitely hit the European Union, and there’s no point in pretending otherwise. But we have to look at the scale here. The EU is a massive bloc of 447 million people, while Russia only has 143 million. That means the EU has three times the population. Beyond just numbers, the technological gap between the two is immeasurable. Look at ASML in the Netherlands—they possess technology that even the US can't match!

The coalition backing Russia—the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation + BRICS—is actually a bit larger than the European Union. More importantly, they are the primary suppliers of goods and resources to those idiots. They are quite literally sawing off the very branch they’re sitting on.

The European Union is headed for a massive decline over the coming decades. The center of global power is shifting back to where it belongs: Asia. Eventually, the EU will officially become nothing more than the world's dumping ground.

Russia:
The energy market shift has hit Russia hard. They’re pumping out more oil and gas than ever, yet their revenue is actually shrinking compared to what they used to pull in. Basically, they're selling their energy for peanuts right now.

They’re selling at a discount, but don't be fooled—that's a distraction. Most of these are being moved well above a $60 cap, and I’ve already laid out exactly how that pricing formula works.

hollowdriver13 said:Nah, you got me wrong there. It doesn't mean I was out there partying during the lockdowns or anything, I just did my best to roll with whatever was happening at the time.

Anyway, since we’re drifting away from the main topic—let's talk inflation, money printing, those rock-bottom interest rates, and how much of this mess is due to war versus everything else? We could even bring in Alessio Rastati, since he loves playing economist and dropping theories without much actual substance behind them.

So, how much of this inflation was actually caused by monetary expansion and low interest rates, and how much can we really pin on the war?
Also, if inflation is such a bad thing, why is everyone so terrified of deflation hitting the economy? At what point does "normal" annual inflation cross the line into runaway hyperinflation?
Basically, what's the real difference between "good" and "bad" inflation, and what's driving the climb more: the endless money printing or the conflict abroad? And what kind of ratio are we looking at?

Thanks in advance!

On top of that—and this is clearly by design—they disrupt energy supplies and goods movement while simultaneously ramping up the frantic printing of dollars. It’s basically a desperate attempt to patch holes on a sinking ship.

It feels like the idiots in power are just throwing gasoline on a fire. It’s high time we stop them or vote them out. Do whatever you want, but I've seen enough.

We are watching a catastrophe unfold in slow motion, and it all traces back to Year zero (2020).

Lucky Americans seem to think the rest of the world exists solely to follow their orders.

For instance, now these whiners at our major domestic airlines are demanding that everyone else take the long way around, essentially begging the world to pile up losses just like they are.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/17/u...s-ukraine.html
Banned from Russian Airspace, U.S. Airlines look to restrict competitors

“Foreign Airlines using Russian airspace on flights to and from the US. are gaining a significant competitive advantage over American competitors in major markets, including China and India,” the presentation, dated February, said. “This situation is directly to the benefit of foreign airlines and at the expense of the United States as a whole, with fewer connections to key markets, fewer high paying airline jobs” and a dent in the overall economy.

Now airlines are pressing the White House and Congress to fix the problem by subjecting foreign carriers from nations not already banned from Russian airspace to the same restrictions applied to American competitors, effectively forcing them to fly the same routes as their American competitors.

The Biden administration should “take action to ensure that foreign carriers overflying Russia do not depart, land or transit through U.S. airports,” said Marli Collier, an Airlines for America spokeswoman.

It looks like the sanctions are finally starting to bite, and now we're seeing desperate moves from people who have run out of options. 😁

goldenorca11 said:Will Russian oil get even cheaper soon?

Quote: USA, Estonia, and Lithuania are pushing for a lowering of the price cap on Russian oil in a bid to further limit the financing of the Kremlin's war machine. The three countries propose that the ceiling, set at USD 60 per barrel in December, be cut to no more than USD 51.45. The issue of reviewing the Russian oil price cap is to be discussed on Wednesday at a meeting of member states' ambassadors to the European Union, Associated Press has learnt.

Quote: USA, Estonia, and Lithuania are pushing for a lowering of the price cap on Russian oil in a bid to further limit the financing of the Kremlin's war machine. These three nations want to take that ceiling—which was set at $60 a barrel back in December—and drop it down to no more than $51.45. According to the Associated Press, the whole discussion about revising this Russian oil price cap is happening this Wednesday during a meeting of member state ambassadors to the European Union.

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article...sian-oil-37180

#sanctions_dont_work 😁

It’s all well and good for them to take a stand. They get an A+ for effort. The issue is that those three countries aren't exactly global power players outside of the European Union.

What are they actually going to do, tell the Chinese what price they should pay for Russian oil? Especially Lithuania. 🤣

Jason Fox2 said:Honestly, I don't see anything wrong with what he said, and I totally get where he's coming from. But people like you seem pretty happy that Russia still has someone to sell oil to, while completely ignoring the fact that they're selling it way cheaper than they ever would in a normal market. You're acting like Indians are buying Russian oil because they're best buddies or allies, when really they're just grabbing it because it's dirt cheap. Lower price means less money spent for the same amount of fuel. Now I'm just waiting for the inevitable comeback about how the European Union is paying way more for oil and therefore sanctions aren't working. It's not like Russia would give those massive discounts to just anyone if their market hadn't shrunk so drastically... Sure, the European Union pays a bit more than they did before the war, but they can afford it. Meanwhile, Russia is forced to sell at a discount and is bringing in way less cash than they used to.

Prices are down slightly, but the volume delivered isn't the same; it’s actually higher.



So, Russia ends up making the same money regardless of discounts or "sanctions." It wouldn't surprise me if there are some backroom deals or joint ventures happening between allies (China, India, and Russia), where they split the extra profits by reselling oil and gas to those G7 breadbasket types.

Asia has effectively replaced the European Union and G7 markets within a single year.



sources:
Russian total oil exports, January 2022 - January 2023
https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/russ...de-oil-tracker

Morgan Wright5 said:Oh, wonderful. So you can buy oil at a massive discount while you're stuck paying $70.

These are genuine discounts, calculated against Brent using a specific formula.

Offers for ESPO that’s typically loaded at Kozmino port was close to $6.50 to $7 a barrel below ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China, while flagship Urals shipped from western ports was around $10 under the same benchmark, said traders.

Brent is currently sitting at $77.45.

Based on the formula mentioned above, Russia is selling:

ESPO: ~$70
URAL: ~$67

Nancy Gomez26 said:The Soviet Union was essentially operating under a form of economic isolation back then, a trend set in motion during the revolution. While the Bolsheviks pushed through sweeping nationalization, the real catalyst for their forced isolation from the West was the seizure of oil fields in Azerbaijan near the Caspian Sea. At that time, oil companies held massive sway over their respective governments—and they had assets elsewhere too. They couldn't just sit by and let nationalization happen without hitting back.
Later on, the Bolsheviks tried to frame this isolation as a mere reaction to Western fear of a "successful" new political system, and eventually, the West simply moved on from the episode. Of course, that era of isolation wasn't nearly as effective as what we see today; there was no unified, coordinated effort among all players. Information traveled much slower, and state oversight of corporations was significantly weaker than modern standards. Furthermore, the shift of global dominance from the United Kingdom to the USA was already underway, meaning the major powers weren't acting with a single, unified policy.

... as effectively as what we're seeing today!?

This isn't isolation. This is a joke—a total caricature of sanctions. You have fleets sitting right off the coast of the European Union calmly transferring Russian oil and shipping it off to Asia for about $70 a barrel.🤣

Russia managed to bypass the oil price cap and energy sanctions almost immediately, though that was predictable from the jump. They already had a shadow fleet ready to go and plenty of buyers waiting in Asia.

I think even this latest article shows how much pressure is being put on India. They want everyone to believe these sanctions are actually working, but it's all just Russian propaganda.

The latest reports from Bloomberg make one thing crystal clear: the current strategy regarding Russia isn't hitting the mark. We were promised that tightening the screws would force a pivot, yet here we are. Instead of a collapse, we're seeing a massive redirection of resources. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that the economic pressure the West is trying to exert is being bypassed through various backchannels. While the G7 continues to debate more aggressive measures, countries like India and China are essentially stepping in to fill the vacuum, keeping the global energy markets surprisingly stable despite the chaos. It’s a frustrating reality to watch. We talk about isolation, but in a globalized economy, true isolation is an illusion. If you want to see real change, the current playbook needs a complete overhaul.

Word on the street is that those close to the situation are saying...

Indian officials haven't officially committed to backing the price cap or the sanctions the G7 slapped on Russia.

Government officials were nowhere to be found when I reached out via text after business hours, leaving my inquiries unanswered.

What am I even supposed to comment on? Rumors? Misinformation?

John Ramos45 said:If we apply a bit of actual logic here, why would anyone hand $70 to Russia when they’re under sanctions and essentially being squeezed by the West? It's pretty simple: a Chinese buyer can just pick up oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UK, or Nigeria, whereas Russia is stuck trying to offload its supply to China or India at massive discounts just to stay afloat.

Everyone else is paying somewhere around $80, while Russians are sitting at $70. You’d have to be incredibly foolish to choose expensive oil over the cheaper Russian stuff.

Only those within the Bureaucracy could be that dense. They seem to have a passion for buying the most expensive options just to kill their own competitiveness on the global market.

At the end of the day, the logical conclusion is simple: the sanctions are working. 😵

The discount is currently sitting between $6.50 and $10 relative to Brent. Brent is holding at 81$ right now.

81-10 = $71 for Urals
81-7 = $75 for ESPO

Traders report that ESPO offers, usually loaded out of ports like Kozmino, are trading at a $6.50 to $7 discount to ICE Brent for deliveries to China. Meanwhile, the flagship Urals shipments from western ports are hovering about $10 below that same benchmark.