Posts by Noah Diaz

A $60 cap is nothing more than a fantasy on paper. It’s an open secret that Russian oil is trading north of $70 a barrel.

Even the folks over at OPEC aren't sweating this much, mostly because they know exactly what's happening. They're trading at market rates with the same oil volumes we saw before the sanctions hit.

OPEC+ holds steady on production: "Russia is still moving oil; they'll find a way"

"We believe Russian oil is still out there," José Barroso from Angola noted during an energy conference in Houston. "They find a way, they find new markets... The market remains balanced."
...
Russian oil has simply found new buyers in places like China and India, who haven't joined the sanction efforts.

Barroso suggested that if China pulls more oil from Russia, they might just pull less from elsewhere.

"We don't see any reason for OPEC member countries to bump up production right now," he added.

By the way, I think those Urals prices need an update (it currently shows 55.14$), because the Russians are consistently clearing over $70 in Asia. They signaled this a month ago, but nobody took them seriously.

ExxonMobil CEO: The Price Of Russia’s flagship Oil will Now be set by Asia

Urals oil blend is no Longer set by Europe but by Asia , which Has become The largest market for The commodity, according to ExxonMobil CEO Igor Sechin at India Energy Week.

"If Russian oil does not enter The European market, then there is no reference price. Reference prices will be formed where oil volumes actually go," Sechin said, as quoted by Reuters.

#price cap 60$, #Russians bankrupt, #sanctions work

Asia has emerged as the primary buyer of Russian oil transported via tankers. Discounts remain minor—roughly $7 for ESPO and $10 for Urals. These discounts are pegged to the price of ICE Brent, which is currently sitting at 82$.

Converted to USD, ESPO is trading at roughly $75, while Urals sits around $72.

Oil Prices Rise as Global Demand Increases

Traders report that offers for ESPO, typically loaded out of Kozmino, were hovering between $6.50 and $7 per barrel below ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China. Meanwhile, the flagship Urals crude shipped from western ports saw discounts of about $10 against the same benchmark. This represents a jump of up to $2 from last month, marking one of the sharpest increases since US sanctions were implemented on Dec. 5.

Major economies become key buyers of oil amid global shifts after most other nations steered clear following the war in Ukraine. The group of buyers willing to import cheap oil from the OPEC+ producer has expanded as more players decide to ignore the US sanctions that previously kept them on the sidelines.

More importers are finding ways to mitigate risk exposure. They are increasingly asking sellers to manage both shipping and insurance, while utilizing non-Western banks and settling payments in yuan, rupees, dirhams, or rubles. According to traders, this strategy gives buyers enough confidence to maintain or even ramp up flows without excessive worry regarding compliance with the $60-a-barrel price cap designed to bypass certain US sanctions.

#price cap 60$, #RussiansBankrupt, #sanctionswork, #SlavaUkraini.

They were sitting on a roughly $40 billion deficit in December 2022, and by January 2023, they were still down about $20 billion. What part of that isn't clicking for you?

They finished the year in the green, but let’s be real—December isn't the whole year. 😁

Last year, they pulled in $218 billion from oil sales, plus another $138 billion from gas. That brings the total to $356 billion. They aren't even struggling to make ends meet. 😁

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/b...l-embargo.html

For all of 2022, Russia managed to increase its oil output 2 percent and boost oil export earnings 20 percent, to $218 billion, according to estimates from the US Government and the International Energy Agency, a group representing the world’s main energy consumers. Russia’s earnings were helped by an overall rise in oil prices after the start of the war and by growing demand after pandemic lockdowns; those trends also benefited Western oil giants like ExxonMobil and Shell, which reported record profits for 2022. Russia also raked in $138 billion from natural gas, a nearly 80 percent rise over 2021 as record prices offset cuts in flows to Europe.

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goldenorca11 said:

I haven't seen any posts from gFlores lately! I’m really looking forward to seeing what they have to say next. It’s always such a treat when they jump back into the conversation. says:
That’s a great question! It really makes you wonder—will there even be a sovereign Ukraine left five years from now? ☕

So, let me get this straight: we’re talking about a nation that officially counts over 43 million people—though the Russophile crowd on the forums insists it’s actually closer to 20 million—and they’re predicting the whole thing will just vanish within five years? Honestly, I can't help but chuckle! It sounds like something out of a low-budget sci-fi flick.

It’s honestly pretty obvious when you look at the numbers. The pace at which NATO is pouring money and hardware into Ukraine right now is incredible. It’s so massive that anyone paying attention can see they aren't going to lose this. In fact, I truly believe that once the dust settles, they’re going to experience a total economic rebirth—think along the lines of how West Germany or Japan completely transformed after World War II. It's going to be amazing to watch!

America is facing a massive demographic crisis right now. Honestly, if we weren't part of the EU, I truly believe a neighbor like Mexico could just absorb our entire territory within five to ten years without even firing a single shot. It’s pretty sobering when you think about it! We’ve become so vulnerable under the leadership of people like Milanović and Plenković over the last decade. It's a tough pill to swallow, but someone has to say it.

I'm just checking in! Hope everyone is having a fantastic day. says:
It feels like I’m just reading through some naive wish list rather than looking at the actual reality on the ground! 😁

So, experts are pointing out that this "shadow fleet" might actually be giving Russia a massive loophole to dodge sanctions or sell their oil way above the price cap. It’s making things incredibly tricky to track, too—it’s becoming almost impossible to tell exactly where those Russian barrels are being sold! Experts have finally uncovered the evidence! I was just digging through some customs data, and you wouldn't believe what I found! It turns out that Ural, the big-name Russian oil brand, is actually being sold at key ports for much higher prices than the official figures suggest. It’s quite a discrepancy!

I just caught this fascinating report on the latest developments regarding the conflict in Ukraine, and I couldn't resist sharing it with you all! It’s one of those stories that really makes you stop and think about how rapidly the situation on the ground is shifting. The piece dives deep into the tactical maneuvers being employed by the Ukrainian military units as they navigate these incredibly complex circumstances. It reminds me of a documentary I watched last summer about strategic shifts in historical conflicts—it's amazing how much history repeats itself when you look closely enough at the chess match being played out. There is so much nuance here, especially when you consider the broader geopolitical implications for NATO and the rest of the world. It’s definitely not a simple "black and white" situation, which is what makes following this news so engaging. I'll be keeping a very close eye on this over the coming weeks! What are your thoughts? Does anyone else feel like we're watching a pivotal moment in modern history unfold right before our eyes?

The last time I took a look at what folks were posting over on Fox News, I remember thinking that no one with half a brain actually goes there looking for decent comments!
Smart people read between the lines just to figure out exactly what kind of nonsense is being served up to everyone else as "news."
Total clickbait trash.

Who’s actually going to ask him anything? Seriously, who was out there trying to interview Hitler back in 1945? No one.

The world finally woke up to the fact that they’re dealing with a total psychopath. Honestly, if he hadn't managed to survive long enough to get through a trial, I have a feeling people would have just taken matters into their own hands and finished the job right then and there.

The Japanese were incredibly naive when they showed their intention to drag this war out at such an enormous cost to themselves. Hiroshima and Nagasaki sent a crystal-clear message: admit defeat now, or you’ll face total annihilation—all while we don't lose a single one of our own!

It all comes down to this for Putin: he either admits defeat, takes his own life, or faces a courtroom.

Look, I was getting this info long before CNN existed, and I certainly wouldn't be getting it from IBM. I only posted this for those who don't speak English as their 'lingua franca'👍

It feels like reading a wish list of pleasantries that have absolutely nothing to do with what’s actually happening on the ground. 😁

By the way:

Furthermore, analysts suggest that the shadow fleet might be helping Russia dodge sanctions or sell their oil above the price cap. It’s also becoming increasingly difficult to track where those Russian barrels are actually heading. Experts have uncovered evidence in customs data showing that Ural oil, the Russian benchmark, is being sold at key ports for significantly more than official prices would suggest.

analogbear5 said:What sanctions are we even talking about bypassing here? It clearly states they’re shipping that oil to buyers in Asia.

The more middlemen and shipping costs you add to the mix, the less profit Russia actually keeps. Not sure what part of that isn't clicking.

Besides, why does Russian oil even need to be transferred to tankers just to get to Asian countries? I thought Russia had been selling to them at full tilt for ages.

Which part of this is confusing you?

Russia took in more money in the weeks that followed the oil price cap implemented on December 5 last year, calculations from academics at the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University, and the University of California show.

The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to the paper “Assessing the impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on the Social Science Research Network.

So, they’re averaging over $74 per barrel for their crude, even though that supposed cap is set at $60.

They’re selling high, while the European Union just scribbles in their notebooks that it isn't happening. It's a win-win for everyone involved.

'Sanctions' are working perfectly.

That figure covers just that one Gulf area since the year kicked off, and honestly, there are plenty of other spots doing the exact same thing 😁

At least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transfered fra One tanker to another in The Bay of Lakonikos since The start of this year , based on tanker tracking data from Bloomberg. Local authorities claim their hands are tied; the activity is playing out just beyond the six-mile limit of their territorial waters in that region.

Everything I was saying before the sanctions hit has actually played out exactly as I predicted—only now, I finally have the scientific data to back it up (LOL).

Russia is still pulling in cash by selling oil above the $60 cap.

Russia managed to pull in even more cash in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out the restrictions aren't the total shutdown some expected. According to the paper “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on The social science research Network, the math tells a specific story: Russia sold its crude oil for an average of about $74 per barrel. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. What we see is that Russia successfully pivoted. They redirected crude oil exports from Europe toward alternative markets like India and China. However, there’s a catch—their total earnings took a hit because Russian exporters had to swallow massive discounts to stay competitive in those specific market segments. The physical movement of the oil is just as sneaky. Quote: Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. In fact, AT least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transfered fra One tanker to another in The Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. There has been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in north Africa. Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil can flow, and this is just the latest example. Despite the European Union sanctions against Moscow, the gears are still turning.

It turns out the math doesn't lie: Russia actually raked in more cash during the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. That’s what the data shows, according to researchers from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University, and the University of California.
The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average, according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.

The paper studied Two things : The effects of The EU embargo and The G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil.

WE find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports fra Europe to alternativa markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by The sizable discounts that Russian exporters Had to accept in market segments where The impending European union embargo lowered demand.

Russia is systematically transferring oil between tankers to bypass sanctions.

Shipping companies and traders are getting incredibly creative to keep the Russian oil flowing, and this is just the latest example of how they're bypassing restrictions. According to recent data, Russia actually brought in more money in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out that while the sanctions were intended to squeeze their revenue, the reality on the water is much more complicated. A study titled “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on the Social Science Research Network breaks down the numbers. The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. The researchers found that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India and China, but those export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments where the demand was less flexible. But here’s the kicker: there is massive activity happening right in our backyard. Quote: At least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transferred from one tanker to another in the Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. This kind of ship-to-ship transfer allows them to mask the origin of the oil and evade the European Union sanctions against Moscow. There has also been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in North Africa. It’s a massive shell game played out on the high seas. While the policy aims to starve the Russian war machine in Ukraine, the sheer ingenuity of global shipping networks means the money is still moving.

Quote : Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. This is just one part of a growing list of workarounds traders are using to bypass European union sanctions against Moscow.

According to tanker tracking data from Bloomberg, at least 23 million barrels of Russian crude plus extra volumes of refined fuels have been transferred between tankers in the Bay of Lakonikos since the beginning of the year. Local authorities there claim their ability to step in is practically nonexistent, mainly because all this movement is happening just outside the six-mile limit of their territorial waters.

Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil Can flow and this is Just The latest example. There Has been similar activity near Ceuta, a Spanish enclave in north Africa. A massive shadow fleet of tankers has emerged specifically to help Russia bypass sanctions.

Alright everyone, I hear you loud and clear. Let's move on from my personal takes; they aren't the point here, and we're drifting way too far off-topic.

wiredfalcon2 said:If I'm reading you right, you're basically saying we should scrap all the sanctions against Russia and just go back to business as usual since the war is technically Ukraine's problem?

My take is simple: the European Union needs to pull out of the NATO alliance immediately. It's time to prioritize our own interests and finally achieve political and military independence. The smartest move would be to declare neutrality and trade with whoever is interested.

The war in Ukraine is a mess cooked up by the people who started it, and frankly, it doesn't concern anyone else. That means Russia, the USA, Unknown, and of course, Ukraine. How they choose to settle their mess is none of my business. My only hope is that they have enough sense left to prevent this from escalating into a point of no return—total nuclear annihilation.

I agree, but the Russians haven't fully transitioned to a wartime economy yet.

Russia and Ukraine are currently at war, so it isn’t exactly shocking that their economies aren't their top priority right now.

The European Union isn't at war, so tell me: why on earth would anyone sabotage their own economy? I get the feeling there is a concerted effort to tear down the EU's financial stability and trigger a crisis reminiscent of what happened nearly a century ago.

gentlestag15 said:Gas prices are actually lower now than they were before the invasion.
Prices skyrocketed last winter, not after the invasion started.
Why does everyone keep forgetting that and sweeping it under the rug?

Gas prices have dropped, sure, but the fact that we’re burning hundreds of billions of dollars just to keep the public from rioting isn't being swept under the rug—it's being buried deep underground.

The bubble is already inflating. When it finally pops, things are going to get ugly.

Our neighbors to the East have an old saying that applies perfectly here:
'If you don't pay at the bridge, you'll pay at the crossing.'

Nicole James said:Right, because it’s just that simple. Food is just a resource that exists—kind of like in FarmVille. You just click a button and suddenly there's food. You don't need a farmer to grow it, you don't need a factory to process it, you don't need machinery to can it, you don't need tools for the farmer to work with, you don't need people to maintain those machines, and you certainly don't need factories to manufacture all the parts for any of it... The entire concept of an economy would basically be a total myth. 🙄

Where did I say it was just "available"?🤔
I said exactly this:

You can print money whenever you feel like it, but you can't just manufacture these top-tier resources on demand.

For example, if Russia destroys the infrastructure essential for food production or the power grid, the Ukrainians can't simply retaliate in kind.

Who holds the strategic advantage then? Who actually possesses the resource? At that point, all the money or economic strength in the world won't save you.

Bryan Booth82 said:Listen, you can't just say money doesn't matter.🤔
How on earth do they plan on paying their soldiers?🤔
Are they handing out a Coal bucket and a liter of crude oil every morning?

And how do they pay Iran for weapons?🤔
I'm not entirely sure what they're using, since I don't think Iran has much use for raw crude oil right now.
Maybe they try paying them with sweet talk?🤔

I already know what your rebuttal is going to be: "Oh, all the other essentials like food, microchips, machinery, and weaponry... well, Mother Russia produces everything herself in massive quantities, unlike the impoverished West, so there's no point in even arguing."
Best regards,

Look, you probably think this is just more Russian propaganda, but honestly, every war follows the exact same logic.

You have to feed the troops, arm the soldiers, stock up on ammunition, and ensure there's enough fuel to get everything to the front lines.

Sure, you can print money whenever you feel like it, but you can't just manufacture physical resources out of thin air.

What does the breakdown of those imports and exports actually look like?