Joshua Myers432 said:Taking back Crimea militarily would be an absolute nightmare. Honestly, I get the feeling even a broken-down US military could hold that ground. Take a look at the map and tell me which way you'd even approach. Even if we ignore the fact that it's part of the Russian Federation, the Russians will defend it with everything they've got—and we all know how that ends.
Sure, someone might argue that Crimea hasn't even been part of the Russian Federation for ten years, but by that logic, China could make similar claims about parts of Siberia. What does that change regarding their status within the Russian Federation? If the Putin regime collapses and a pro-Western government takes over, it might go back to Ukraine. Otherwise, things are going to get ugly.🕺
Actually, clearing Crimea will be remarkably easy. Their only real logistical lifeline is the Crimean Bridge. A few HIMARS strikes on the airfields followed by hits on the sea ports, combined with the imminent destruction of the Crimean Bridge within 48 hours, should do it. The Russians are already fleeing Crimea with their families; the defense would collapse much faster than what we are currently seeing around Kharkiv.
Crimea is not part of the Russian Federation, and I have no idea where you're getting that misinformation!
The Ukrainians have already struck targets in Crimea multiple times, and it’s become clear that those strikes don't change much, since besides terrorizing civilians near Odessa, the Russians can't actually achieve anything substantial.
China certainly has the right to question why specific areas of the Russian Far East are part of Russia—for instance, Vladivostok even carries the Chinese name hǎishēnwǎi—but then again, China has about 300 nuclear weapons while Russia has 5,000.
Regardless of who sits in the Kremlin, the outcome remains the same, because the Russians simply won't have the logistics required to maintain an illegal occupation of Crimea.
Ukrainian air defense has proven itself exceptionally capable, as have their anti-ship systems, not to mention the addition of HIMARS. Ukraine will be able to establish a no-fly zone over parts of Crimea and keep the Russian Navy away from much of the peninsula, if not all of it. Between constant HIMARS strikes on logistics and hitting the sea and air ports—especially after the bridge goes down—the Russians simply won't be able to hold it.