Posts by analogbear5

Think semiconductors.

darkdriver said:I'm down—I've got a cold, capitalist Heineken right here waiting for me.
Cheers!

I bet you're only buying it because of the red star.

Kevin Murphy7 said:Look, man, if Russia dropped a nuke on Ukraine right now,
which other country would actually be willing to hit Russia back with the same level of force?

None of them.

And how exactly would they even deliver a nuclear warhead to them?

Michael Davis9 said:That’s beautifully put, and I couldn't agree more.

Didn't everything back in February show that his intelligence briefings were more about sugarcoating things than giving him the actual reality regarding Ukraine?

If he hit a wall at the border, I’m thinking that’s just the limit of how much fear you can actually manage.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Russia has some deep, structural issues with their population demographics and birth rates. This isn't new—it's been brewing for a long time, and they're in a way worse spot than we are. You can look that up yourself.
The war definitely isn't helping matters.

What’s wild is how Russia leads the pack when it comes to abortion numbers. Back in 2020, they hit 553,500 (compared to 1,436,514 births and 2,138,586 deaths).

Back in 2005, about 20% of all abortions were performed on girls under 18.

Terry Green3 said:So, what’s the consensus here? Are the Russians just going to slap sanctions on their gas deliveries to Germany?

The real issue isn't even about residential heating or household energy bills. It's about heavy industry—take the chemical sector, for example. They rely on gas as a raw material to produce bases used all over the US and the rest of the world, essentially driving the entire economy.

My take? In a worst-case scenario, Putin cuts the flow by about a third, citing some manufactured "technical glitches." It's just a way to flex his muscles and cause chaos in the supply chain. He gets to decide which industries stay powered up and which ones get left in the dark.

What are your predictions? People in Western Europe are having heated debates over this right now. Here in the States, we aren't sweating it too much since our reserves are currently among the lowest compared to other regions.

What happens when you let a chimpanzee loose in the White House?

Maybe it rips up some books, maybe it trashes the place, or maybe it does absolutely nothing at all.

Same deal with Russia. Whatever they pull next is driven purely by their own domestic politics—which makes it impossible to call.

urbanotter said:But let's flip the script for a second

can the West actually survive without Russia and China?

And who exactly was Russia taking territory from??

Ukraine.

Russia’s already gone ahead and appointed a "governor for the Kharkiv region" who’s already busy making decisions—like picking out a new coat of arms.

Article: lenta.ru

Vitaliy Ganchev, head of the state administration for the Kharkiv region, has approved a new regional emblem featuring a double-headed eagle.

Photo: Aziz Karimov / Keystone Press agency / Global look Press

The head of the temporary civilian administration (CCA) for the Kharkiv region, Vitaliy Ganchev, has officially approved new symbols for the area, according to RIA Novosti via the department's press service.

The new regional crest features a golden double-headed eagle holding a heraldic shield. "The royal apple in the eagle's left hand symbolizes the historical roots of the Kharkiv region as an integral part of Russian lands," officials stated. A staff entwined with two snakes represents reconciliation and inviolability. Interestingly, both the caduceus and the cornucopia have been featured on the emblems of Kharkiv and the Kharkiv province since the late 18th century.

The new flag for the Kharkiv region consists of three colors: crimson, blue, and red. It's meant to represent the region's historical ties to the Cossack traditions of Slobozhanshchyna and Russia.

The temporary civilian administration in the Kharkiv region was established on July 6th. Four additional temporary local administrations will also be set up within the region: Kupiansk, Izium, Vovchansk, and Kharkiv.

Jacob Kern2 said:I am certainly not suggesting you are wrong, but they were predicted to collapse much sooner than this, so what actually happened?

Regarding this, I have one rhetorical question: is it better to have a single powerful nation or a coalition of states?

If that coalition of states is too fragmented by individual interests, then a single nation is far superior. 😉

Who exactly are "you guys"? 🤷

I don't know where you reside, but here in the US, fuel prices without intervention would have soared past $5.25. Andrej Plenković and Ursula von der Leyen have repeatedly suggested that we might face reductions in everything during the winter months.

If these price hikes continue, do you honestly believe this sense of European unity will hold up? Not a chance. Even the Germans are already hedging their bets, wondering what will happen when the situation truly turns sour.

And I fail to understand why there is such a desperate need to attack anyone who doesn't blindly swallow these narratives about a looming Russian collapse and a mighty European Union. If the EU were truly powerful, they never would have allowed themselves to get into this position. We must accept the reality that they are being led by amateurs and cowards—mere bureaucratic rats who can't see two feet in front of them. Because if they could, they wouldn't have permitted this. And it isn't as if they weren't warned.

Vladimir Putin made his first move regarding Ukraine nearly a decade ago, and since then, what has actually been done to ensure energy independence? Absolutely nothing. There was plenty of talk and lofty rhetoric, but the actual problems were simply swept under the rug.

The main argument has been the same for ages:

- They predicted Russia would fall apart.
- Russia didn't fall apart.
- Therefore, sanctions don't work.

Sanctions weren't designed to make Russia implode.

Honestly, I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or just messing with me.

Anthony Hill5 said:The CIS has been clinically dead for years now.

They had a nice map once—it almost looked like the USSR.

boldmarlin32 said:I’m struggling to follow here. So, Russ took a city, and now the West wants to intervene because they're terrified of running out of energy?
The consensus seems to be that we're looking at a disaster this winter—total blackouts and gas shortages, while fuel prices go $6.75?
Honestly, I don't get it. Is Europe collapsing simply because it's too dependent on Russia?

Fair point—you clearly haven't a clue.

Plus, that freezer is totally impractical for anything it wasn't actually built for.

Joshua Wilson17 said:A Jeep isn't really an off-roader... there are maybe ten actual off-road models on the market today.

Besides, the Jeep has always been a bit of a junk heap...

By the standards of the guys sitting on their porches judging everyone else's ride, anything that isn't a German luxury car is just a piece of junk.

Like that guy said a few pages back: "A Self-sufficient country."

Tyler Bennett73 said:Since you're clearly dreaming away, here's some actual news for you.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/economy-news-update-example

The local news outlets don't bother checking machine translations of foreign articles—so watch out. American media loves throwing around the word "bankruptcy" just because it sounds dramatic, even when it's totally wrong.

Here's the actual article. "Default" just means failing to meet a financial obligation—it isn't bankruptcy. You can't really "bankrupt" a nation.

And for the record, that's just one guy's take over at Morgan Stanley, not whatever you're claiming:

Tyler Bennett73 said:Man, I still remember how the European Union and the USA were feeding us this whole fairy tale when those first sanction packages dropped—telling us Russia would be completely broke by mid-April. Well, guess what? It’s already been seven months, and the Ruble is sitting there looking stronger than ever while the Euro is basically in a death spiral. Look, I'm not saying sanctions won't do *anything*, but they're definitely going to trigger some massive backlashes. The real question is: how much is the European Union actually going to take the hit for all this? Right now, we're just seeing the winners rake it in: China, the USA, India, Turkey. Pretty soon, politicians are gonna have to deal with people losing their minds over shrinking wallets—and honestly, who knows? We might even see another "random" pandemic pop up this winter, just "coincidentally" appearing right when things get messy.

And what was the alternative—sell it to refineries at sky-high prices just to somehow lower gas costs later?

That oil was released to bump up supply and steady out the market.

Honestly, sometimes you really have to spell out the obvious for people.

Especially for that mass media crowd most folks rely on—their brains tend to fry a little faster.

Amanda Allen4 said:The reality? The European Union is actually resentful of the alliance with the USA—and those pushing for change are primarily motivated by one thing: tearing that alliance apart.

It’s a classic "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" combat strategy.

Which is exactly why the US has been nagging everyone in NATO for years about hitting that 2% defense spending minimum. It's all part of the play to fracture the alliance.

People on this sub are all saying Europe is screwed because they’re gonna have to dump way more money into their own defense.

If only it were that simple.

Amy Rogers6 said:So you're actually suggesting India and China just stopped buying Russian oil? And then magically stopped flipping it on the market to places like the European Union? As long as the G7 isn't the only game in town, no amount of sanctions is going to kill Russia's energy profits... It’s like you guys can't count higher than your own fingers. Cheering and wishful thinking are one thing, but reality and basic logic are something else entirely....☕

The G7 is basically just a sideshow meant to distract Western investors and their dollars.

What’s actually been achieved here besides a bunch of "memorandums of understanding"? There's plenty of planning, plenty of "we would like to," and plenty of "it could be," but zero actual deals.

Take China, for instance—they want to turn the G7 into a customs union. Why do you think that is? And how do the other countries feel about it? None of these member states even have a basic trade agreement in place. Russia and India are openly against it.

Russia is pushing hardest for a common currency to drive de-dollarization, but they’ve got the least to lose in that scenario. China is okay with the idea in principle, but they're being cautious—moving too fast would spike trade costs, make it harder to raise capital outside the G7, and tank their manufacturing competitiveness.

Once we see the first real bilateral deal, or an actual uptick in trade and investment between these countries, then maybe we'll have something worth talking about.

Tyler Bennett73 said:Man, I still remember how the European Union and the USA were feeding us this whole fairy tale when those first sanction packages dropped—telling us Russia would be completely broke by mid-April. Well, guess what? It’s already been seven months, and the Ruble is sitting there looking stronger than ever while the Euro is basically in a death spiral. Look, I'm not saying sanctions won't do *anything*, but they're definitely going to trigger some massive backlashes. The real question is: how much is the European Union actually going to take the hit for all this? Right now, we're just seeing the winners rake it in: China, the USA, India, Turkey. Pretty soon, politicians are gonna have to deal with people losing their minds over shrinking wallets—and honestly, who knows? We might even see another "random" pandemic pop up this winter, just "coincidentally" appearing right when things get messy.

Source, please. Nobody actually said that.

Wet dreams and fuzzy memories don't really count as a source—give me something concrete.