Posts by analogbear5

Some good news for the pro-Russia crowd: US LNG exports just took a sixth-sized hit thanks to that fire at the Texas facility.

Natural-Gas Prices Plunge after extended Outage AT Texas LNG Facility (Wall Street Journal)

Looks like Americans get cheaper gas because of the export dip! Finally—maybe I can stop profiting off this whole war mess.

An oil buyer cartel makes way more sense for US interests. For Europe, they'd be better off with a gas buyer cartel.

Brandon Clark4 said:But the ruble is only strong because of those very exports. There is demand... it is the currency used to settle the principal on energy shipments.
So, how does one reconcile that logic when we are supposedly talking about sanctions?

Exactly. Russia is actually coming out on top from this whole war. Their problematic neighbor is totally sidelined, energy prices have gone through the roof, and export revenue is higher than ever.

The whole point of sanctions is to stop Russia from profiting off the aggression. As it stands, they're failing because they don't cut deep enough. And they won't cut deep because Europe is way too dependent on Russian energy.

rowdyraven112 said:What happened at Times Square was purely anti-Russian. I didn't see any Italians out in the squares calling for the slaughter of Americans or anyone else. In the US, we call that a coup d'état and start legal proceedings. Same in Spain. In Ukraine, they call it the democratic will of the people. EDIT: forgot to mention... in Belarus, they call the exact same thing state repression.☕
Of course, after the Warsaw Pact fell, Gorachev was acting like a naive baby. Most Biden supporters claim he didn't ask for, or even receive, any guarantees regarding NATO expansion into former Warsaw Pact countries. Not that anything was ever signed—back then, nuclear powers relied on handshakes and verbal agreements. ☕
My favorite part? Everyone claiming the US and the West aren't responsible for what's happening in Ukraine right now. It was actually the West that allowed oil to hit $120 a barrel back in 2004, providing the massive profits needed to exploit shale oil. That money directly funded both the military and economic recovery of Russia, setting the stage for today. By the way, oil is still sitting around $120. The money keeps moving. Biden supporters are essentially financing the Russian Army. If oil dropped to $60 tomorrow, Russia would be on its knees instantly—militarily and economically—and Ukrainians could liberate their country without any Western military aid at all.☕

Total nonsense. Even with a strong ruble, Russian oil exports would still be incredibly profitable.

Man, it’s funny how once globalization actually starts moving again, all those anti-globalist types are the first ones whining when prices finally snap back to normal.

urbanotter said:Quincey:

The piece shared by our colleague milko 84 discusses how The US government is quietly encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to purchase and transport more Russian fertilizer, according to sources familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, a fear of sanctions has led to a sharp decline in stockpiles, which has subsequently caused food prices to spiral out of control. Government efforts are part of complex and difficult negotiations involving the United Nations, aimed at increasing the supply of fertilizer, grains, and other agricultural products from Russia and Ukraine—supplies that were disrupted by Vladimir Putin's invasion of his southern neighbor.

So, what you're saying is the US government is essentially begging corporations to bypass the very sanctions it implemented? It seems that without Russian fertilizer exports, which have dropped 25% globally because of these rules, we're facing a massive food shortage or, at the very least, skyrocketing prices that will leave many people hungry while others struggle to afford basic meals.

Maybe you clicked on the link, but I doubt you truly grasped the implications of what was written there.

As for the point about natural gas being essential for synthetic fertilizer production, that's common knowledge to any farmer or even someone working at a local utility plant like an ExxonMobil facility; they've been struggling for months because current gas prices are just too high, especially considering fertilizer costs have already jumped by 300%.

Go ahead and keep trolling if you want, but I've had enough of this shallow logic. I can clearly see the disaster looming if these trade routes aren't normalized soon, especially since Russia is demanding the lifting of sanctions to fix it.

Not quite what you're getting at. The text actually says:

The EU and USA have carved out exceptions to their restrictions on doing business with Russia to allow for the trade of fertilizers, since Moscow is a major global supplier. However, many ship owners, banks, and insurers have been avoiding this trade out of fear of accidentally running afoul of the regulations.

Bottom line? The US government isn't asking companies to dodge sanctions—fertilizer is already exempted.

urbanotter said:Quincey:

The piece shared by our colleague milko 84 discusses how The US government is quietly encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to purchase and transport more Russian fertilizer, according to sources familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, a fear of sanctions has led to a sharp decline in stockpiles, which has subsequently caused food prices to spiral out of control. Government efforts are part of complex and difficult negotiations involving the United Nations, aimed at increasing the supply of fertilizer, grains, and other agricultural products from Russia and Ukraine—supplies that were disrupted by Vladimir Putin's invasion of his southern neighbor.

So, what you're saying is the US government is essentially begging corporations to bypass the very sanctions it implemented? It seems that without Russian fertilizer exports, which have dropped 25% globally because of these rules, we're facing a massive food shortage or, at the very least, skyrocketing prices that will leave many people hungry while others struggle to afford basic meals.

Maybe you clicked on the link, but I doubt you truly grasped the implications of what was written there.

As for the point about natural gas being essential for synthetic fertilizer production, that's common knowledge to any farmer or even someone working at a local utility plant like an ExxonMobil facility; they've been struggling for months because current gas prices are just too high, especially considering fertilizer costs have already jumped by 300%.

Go ahead and keep trolling if you want, but I've had enough of this shallow logic. I can clearly see the disaster looming if these trade routes aren't normalized soon, especially since Russia is demanding the lifting of sanctions to fix it.

From where I'm sitting, it looks like nobody actually read the article.

Nostalgia is basically just another drug—and a massive industry at that.

urbanotter said:What Western technology were we really talking about back in 1986 when the Mir space station was being assembled?

https://hr.rbth.com/science/89236-svemirska-postaja-mir

Honestly, acting like the Russian contribution to space exploration doesn't exist is just childish.

William Cooper11 said:Not a chance. We should just egg Turkey on to push against Greece over those maritime disputes and then sit back quietly while the Turkish military tears things up and ruins the entire tourist season.
After a month of everything going to hell, then maybe we can call the Greeks and ask if they still plan on ignoring the sanctions against Russia.

You’ll have to ask Putin to lean on the Turks. They actually listen to him.

brightheron64 said:Everything would look much brighter if other suppliers were actually showing some solidarity or empathy toward Germany, perhaps even offering energy at Russian prices—or maybe even lower, given the current situation and the noble intentions behind the embargoes...

Inflation in Germany is hitting twice what was originally anticipated
The German economy is expected to grow this year at only half the speed predicted by those who clearly didn't see the writing on the wall back in December; they're looking at just 1.9 percent, whereas the Federal Reserve's projections in December suggested an activity increase of 4.2 percent...

"Our baseline scenario assumes that the war and its fallout won't escalate any further," the Federal Reserve warned...

They also cautioned that if the conflict intensifies and Germany loses access to Russian energy—whether through European embargoes or a sudden Russian shutdown of exports—inflation could skyrocket while the economy takes a massive hit...
In that specific scenario, economic activity could shrink by three percent in 2023, with inflation climbing to around six percent, according to the Federal Reserve's calculations...

Meanwhile, Bloomberg is telling a slightly different story:
The Federal Reserve's outlook, published Friday, shows German inflation averaging 7.1% this year, 4.5% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024 -- up from 3.6% in 2022 and 2.2% in the other two years earlier.

And as for our fate? Well, wherever Germany goes, we'll likely follow right behind them...

Now we finally see how the paper-thin anti-globalists react when globalization actually starts retreating. They got used to cheap prices and that cozy, bourgeois lifestyle globalization handed them on a silver platter—now they're just whining about the price of groceries or complaining that they're eating home cooking instead of sushi.

Jack Hill2 said:That cost-based perspective just confuses everyone. Are people really going to sit down and calculate their own income manually? You take twelve months of salary plus maybe some side hustle money, and that's it. No one starts by adding up how much they spent on groceries, milk, savings, or investments...

In short, GDP = total wages + income from assets (like rental properties or bank interest) + corporate profits.

GDP accurately measures how much was earned. That isn't its flaw. The flaws lie elsewhere—for instance, it doesn't measure the actual effort involved. It can't distinguish between someone working two hours a day versus someone grinding 15-hour shifts... nor does it account for the underground economy. And so on...

The actual topic here is how sanctions are hitting the Russian economy and politics, specifically looking at imports and exports—we've got fresh data right there. If you want to debate Russian labor productivity from back in 2016, go hit up the Economy subforum.

silentnomad7 said:Feeling let down?

I've seen better takes on inflation. Yours is definitely among the more entertaining.

Jack Hill2 said:So, you're saying GDP isn't a reliable metric...?

Sure, but you still need to know what's actually under the hood.

Just adding this to clear things up—trying to move us toward a more detailed conversation instead of just endless bickering. I’m not trying to force some grand point here—honestly, I don't have one. Just a little helpful hint 💡

Jack Hill2 said:What’s the point?

There is also the income approach to calculating GDP (the result is identical...

GDP = wages + interest + rent + corporate profits

I usually drop this in just to clear things up whenever someone brings up big GDP numbers. People love using it—along with exchange rates—to try and prove whether Russia is actually thriving or tanking under all those sanctions.

silentnomad7 said:Alright, I'll give you that—what we see in Moscow might not be representative of the wealthier regions of Russia...

But which regions are we actually talking about here?

And regarding those sanctions... listen, there are collateral victims involved, and honestly, you're one of them too...

Check out this interesting map showing GDP by region.GDP per capita (PPP) back in 2014.

Anthony Hill5 said:Russia is staring down a projected GDP collapse of somewhere between 10% and 15% this year. Meanwhile, the European Union’s GDP is expected to maintain a growth rate slightly north of 2% over that same span.

Does any Kremlin sycophant out there actually have the mathematical capacity to explain how these sanctions supposedly inflicted more damage on the European Union than they did on Russia?

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres.../en/IP_22_3070

https://www.reuters.com/business/rus...ws-2022-04-27/

Friendly reminder:

GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + exports – imports

Go ahead, spin it however you want.

How does that even tie into the sanctions talk? You probably think this is some clever way to dodge the EU embargo, right?

Terry Green3 said:So, have the EU sanctions on Russian oil actually been finalized, or is everything still stalled because of some blockade over refusing to sanction the Russian Patriarch?

From the European Commission website: europa.eu

Quote : Today's Package contains a complete import Ban on All Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products. This covers 90% of our current oil imports from Russia. The Ban is subject to certain transition periods to allow The sector and Global markets to Adapt, and a temporary exemption for pipeline crude oil to ensure that Russian oil is phased out in an orderly Fashion. this will allow The EU and its partners to Secure alternativa supplies and minimises The impact on Global oil prices.

Due to its specific geographical exposure, a special temporary derogation until the end of 2024 has been agreed for Bulgaria which will be able to continue to import crude oil and petroleum products via maritime transport. In addition, America will be able to authorise until The end of 2023 The import of Russian vacuum gas oil which is needed for The functioning of its refinery.

Nathan Evans78 said:Could we be looking at the end of the credit cycle?

https://www.cnbc.com/select/us-credi...all-time-high/

Basically an ad for credit services. So—how much is your commission?

Nathan Evans78 said:

"Other OPEC+ nations are struggling to increase output.

Investment dried up during the pandemic—and in several instances, oil infrastructure hasn't even been properly maintained. Now, they're realizing they simply can't hit those production targets they promised."

Someone really needs to break it to the folks over in the Brussels offices; apparently, they think you can just bump up production levels by issuing a few directives.

I can already see the cold reality hitting this winter when those LNG capacities fail to meet the demand. 🤣

OPEC+ handles oil, not gas.