Posts by analogbear5

urbanotter said:I'd actually love to see the source for that specific statistic you're citing.

And if we look at GDP adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, our position looks even worse, which I think provides a much more accurate picture of the actual standard of living since it accounts for inflation and the cost of daily life.

Russia is sitting at 6th while the US is down at 85th.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

For the average person, per capita is what actually matters. So, what's the number for Russia?

We're talking gas here, not oil.

Tell the Chinese they're doing it wrong if they want to talk about fracking.

Dana Robinson4 said:"Quote:"

Jack Hill2 Asks: Reading through your take, I can't help but wonder—wouldn't it be far more plausible to expect a 10 percent contraction in Russia's GDP alongside a 2 percent growth in the US this year, rather than the exact opposite of what you've suggested? Honestly, who even cares about GDP figures anymore when all anyone wants to talk about is Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin?

What is the point of seeing a two percent increase in your salary when inflation is sitting at ten or even twenty percent?

Care to explain how inflation actually messes with GDP growth?

Ronald Chavez2 said:I wish I could share your optimism, but it all feels a bit detached from reality. Given how this started, aren't we just looking at a future where we're stuck buying more expensive American gas while completely severing ties with Russia, which basically sets the stage for stunted economic growth, assuming there's any growth left to speak of?

Here we go again. American gas can only cover such a small slice of what Europe needs, and let's be real—buyers for American gas in Asia have always been there, and they aren't going anywhere.

Any gas on the planet that isn't Russian is going to cost more. Plus, Russian gas comes with a non-monetary price tag—namely, those "political favors" we used to get.

Jack Hill2 said:From what I can gather, all the forecasts suggest Russia's GDP will drop by about 10% this year.

The impact of sanctions is undeniable. Without them, they would be seeing growth. Some sectors might be performing better or worse than expected, but there is no question that sanctions have hit them hard.

However, I believe the military blow is what hurts them most. Even before these sanctions, Russia's economy was already struggling, much like Italy's economic situation. They were essentially a broken economy even before the restrictions kicked in. Population-wise, they have fewer people than the two largest countries in the EU, let alone the rest of Europe. They simply aren't, and cannot be, a global player. Their only two real arguments were their military and their natural resources.

1. Militarily, they've been stalled just a few miles from their own borders without even needing NATO to step in. That says everything you need to know about their status as a global superpower.

2. As for energy, they've been brushed off. In five years, Europe likely won't give a damn about their energy supplies because they'll have organized alternative channels. Good luck to them trying to blackmail China or India... those are ten times larger and more powerful nations, and they're only going to get stronger...

Just a quick refresher on how GDP actually works:

GDP = private consumption + government spending + investment + (exports - imports)

So, let's play around with the numbers. Say, imports have definitely dropped because of sanctions—which, technically, would bump up the GDP.

Sure, but Russian crude is hitting the market at a $40 discount under Brent. Honestly, that’s a win for their exports—taking a hit on margins is way better than shutting down production entirely. Plus, it just drives up demand for cheap, competitive oil, mostly from China.

wiredseal7 said:At the end of the day, they just want the energy export cash pouring into the treasury faster than it was before the war. And from what I can see, that’s exactly what’s happening.

The trade surplus—where exports beat imports—is growing mostly because imports have tanked. Exports are holding steady, but whether the actual cash hitting the coffers is higher than pre-war levels is anyone's guess. Russia stopped publishing monthly import and export data, so we're basically flying blind.

urbanotter said:But I suppose that's what happens when you label the Russians as uncivilized savages who just don't grasp how to behave once civilized nations slap them with sanctions.

They are apparently so "uncivilized" that they’re offloading energy supplies to India, China, and various middlemen at deep discounts, well below market value.

I guess that’s just what you expect from such wild, unpredictable actors. 🤷

Why call Russians savages? Not exactly the most politically correct way to put it.

Anthony Taylor3 said:Sure, because clearly the Ukrainians from western Ukraine marched straight into Donbas to attack the locals.
It all happened right after the shots fired that lacked any respect for independence and sovereignty

And no, I don't understand English; I'm just using Google Translate.

You ever wonder who actually sparked that whole armed uprising back in 2014 over in Slovjanski? Guy goes by the nickname Strelkov—maybe you’ve heard of him. He’s a Russian citizen leading a group of Russians, too. Involved in the Visehrad massacre... I don't even need to say whose side he's on.

darkdriver said:Every evening at my place, I blast the old Soviet partisan anthem—you know, that "Song of the Partisans" track—and I even go as far as hoisting a red hammer-and-sickle flag in my backyard.
In my wallet, right next to a picture of Franjo Harmon, I’m carrying photos of Vladimir Uljanov and Vladimir Putin.
До свидания

Dinner is usually served at the local "Adriatic Coast" spot—Djuwetschreis mit Tschewaptschitschi.

You aren't the only one living and working in Germany.

Linda Collins3 said:Where exactly are you seeing oil prices fall?

Look, I know the sun rises in the east even if it’s pitch black out here right now and there isn't a trace of it.

Linda Collins3 said:What oil price drop?

Look, when oil prices tank, demand for refinery services actually goes up. Is that really that hard to wrap your head around?

Linda Collins3 said:I was watching CNN yesterday, and this expert was claiming that gas prices aren't actually spiking because of crude oil costs, but because refinery margins for processed products have allegedly shot up tenfold in some cases.

If that’s actually true, it basically means refineries are just war profiteers.

Just look at how many refineries across the US shut down after the pandemic lockdowns hit due to demand cratering—then you'll get it. Right now, total capacity is down, and since oil prices are dipping, everyone wants refining done. It makes them the ultimate bottleneck in the whole chain.

wearytrucker22 said:brightheron64 Look, it doesn't matter if a gallon of oil costs $33, what matters is that we need total sanctions against Nazi Russia. We should be blocking every single ship entering Russian ports and cutting off trade with any country that deals with them. It's simple: you're either with us or you're with the Russian Nazis. Make a choice.

Can't do it like that—we wouldn't even have enough grease for the gears, let alone anything else. You can't just wish it all away, Mr. Citizen. Just magic a perfect world into existence and suddenly everyone's happy.

Thanks 😁

urbanotter said:I get the distinct impression that some people are living with their heads in the clouds, while others are very much exploiting that detachment. Ultimately, it’s the dreamers and the fools who end up footing the bill.

Following the announcement from the European Union and the United States regarding the ban on Russian oil imports as part of the sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine, traders have been ramping up their purchases of Russian crude and blending it with other sources to mask its origin, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Your little "text correction" didn't really save you anything.

OPEC+ is bumping up production by 648,000 barrels a day through July and August – Wall Street Journal

Who knows—maybe one day we'll actually give a damn about whether Americans in Canada have a station of their own.

darkdriver said:Honestly, you can only make things worse

From what I gather—and please, feel free to set me straight if there’s some food scientist or whatever out there who knows better—natural gas is one of the biggest, maybe even *the* most critical components when it comes to making fertilizer.
Just a quick side note here...
Malaria is basically a disease that we could pretty much entirely prevent or at least treat, but despite all our crazy tech and medical breakthroughs, something like 400,000 kids still die from it every single year.
Does anyone sitting on their high horse about morality actually give a damn?
Is there even a thread about this on the forums?
Or is it just considered irrelevant because they're mostly just little Black kids who aren't being shoved down our throats daily by CNN, BBC, and the rest of the mainstream media?
I guess it's just that old saying—out of sight, out of mind.

You're just trying to manipulate the facts because you don't know the material. Malaria isn't polio—you can't just claim it's preventable and curable across every single population, every parasite subspecies, every climate, every mosquito variety, and every society like you're suggesting. Vaccines are still pretty much in the experimental phase.

Besides, this whole tu quoque thing you've got going on is getting old. You live in a NATO member state, so you're part of the same regime sanctioning Russia and causing the war in Ukraine and hunger in Africa—don't act all innocent now.

Anyway, back to the topic at hand:
Russia is still pulling in an average of $800 million a day. A huge chunk of that is just thanks to prices spiking on the market. Bloomberg