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Posts by analogbear5

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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
It’s pretty funny how they don't bother including any links to the sources or even the actual article titles.

Basically, for that piece put out on July 7th, they had to dig a little further back in time:

Wall Street Journal, April 21st
Bloomberg, April 8th

But hey, the whole point of sites like this is just giving people exactly what they want to hear—and let's be real, most folks don't even read past the headline anyway. So, mission accomplished, I guess.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
swiftjackal11 said:I can already picture you in Russia. That's where the real luck is.☕

What’s with that comment? What am I supposed to sing with you guys—that Russia is falling apart while NATO keeps expanding?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:The real issue here is that this established hierarchy is starting to shift slowly but surely.

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid...97.-2207520000..

It would be absolutely absurd to insist on using the dollar within the Eurozone, especially when you have to factor in the extra cost of conversion fees.

We're talking about the petrodollar here, not the dollar being used for every little thing.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
It won't totally tank their economy, but it’ll definitely sting—forcing them to pivot toward different markets where they won't have nearly as much leverage. See, China isn't some pushover like the European Union. As for this whole new Russia-China dynamic? We're mostly just guessing at this point.

I don't see the average person falling into some Soviet-style cult of consumerism—mostly because all those fancy gadgets can be found outside of Western markets.

Look at the food sector; we've seen since 2014 that Russia has been pretty successful at breaking its addiction to luxury Western goods.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
So they were busy messing up the policy, isn't that obvious?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
My copy of the US Constitution and the Declaration of Independence was
Made in China.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:So, where exactly do you think Russian importers go to get the currency they need if not through the Russian foreign exchange market?
What kind of currency do you think companies use when they have to buy rubles just to secure their supply of gas and oil? How exactly are they paying for it?
Maybe in your world, they’re just handing it over for free based on a friendly smile.

Just because you, as an individual citizen in Russia, can't access certain currencies in countries that have slapped sanctions on Russia, doesn't mean it's impossible to trade for other currencies on the Russian forex market.

Trade between Russia and other nations is increasingly shifting toward local currencies, and honestly, that is precisely what the USA fears most.
The demand for the dollar will continue to erode as more international trade settles using domestic currencies instead.

As a result, these sanctions are becoming less effective at hitting their intended targets; instead, Western importers of Russian gas are actually buying up rubles just to pay for the energy they need.

This entire assault on the established monetary system is going to force nations to find alternative ways to settle payments with one another.
After seeing their foreign exchange reserves frozen and seized by banks all over the world, many countries are being forced to rethink which currencies they should hold to facilitate trade, or if they should simply move toward gold.

When that happens, the global reliance on the dollar diminishes, and eventually, the rest of the world won't have to shoulder the burden of its constant printing anymore.
That hurts the USA far more than any "Glory to Ukraine" sentiment or the tragic loss of thousands of lives this war brings.

Everything the USA and the West are doing is just pushing us closer to a point where some madman, on either side, decides to push the button. At that stage, it won't matter who won or lost; the only question will be whether anyone survives to travel anywhere, or if a few lucky souls will just be waiting in bunkers, hoping life on Earth becomes possible again.

Look, what you're describing only works if there's actually a viable alternative to the dollar out there. For any country trading oil, trying to stockpile a bunch of different local currencies would be an absolute nightmare. Between the sheer complexity and the total chaos of conversion rates, it’s a mess—not to mention how much volatility that would trigger for everyone, especially smaller nations.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
gentleviper62 said:They are propping it up, sure, but foreign exchange reserves seem to be holding steady for now. People were predicting a total bankruptcy, yet here we are. If they manage to convince foreign buyers to pay for energy using rubles, it could set a precedent that challenges the dollar's global dominance.

I mean, seriously, who was actually buying the bankruptcy story given how much oil and gas they're pumping out?

Nobody was ever talking about paying for oil in rubles—that's not even on the table right now. They aren't looking to ditch the petrodollar entirely. It’s just gas, aimed at the European market, using something other than the euro.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
gentleviper62 said:In the end, it looks like the Russian economy has actually outlasted their military performance. Even the ruble is holding up stronger than people expected before the conflict started.

I see this being posted on every single page—so I guess I'll go through the motions again.

The ruble's price since March isn't driven by the market—it's the Russian central bank pulling the strings with strict trade controls. It's basically just capital control.

The ruble looks strong because there's massive demand for it—every exporter is forced to buy it up.

On the flip side, importers in Russia aren't looking for euros or dollars because imports have absolutely cratered due to sanctions.

So, the exchange rate doesn't mean the world is suddenly dying to invest in Russia—it just means the Russian central bank is forcing it to stay at this level to try and keep inflation in check.

Plus, a strong ruble eats into export profits, meaning they'll eventually need even more euros and dollars just to plug those budget holes.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:It’s honestly quite bizarre—you’ve got the Bomb and a massive military at your disposal, yet you claim to have no ambitions? It’s almost as if all that power is just sitting there, completely useless and purely decorative...😬

Even the most remote tribes deep within the jungles of Papua have some sort of territorial ambition... even if it's just wanting to gobble up their neighbors...

They defend a rigid, medieval kingdom and... what else?

Just so we're all clear—cannibalism was actually practiced in Papua. I'm bringing this up because cannibalism is way more interesting than whatever you guys are rambling about right now.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Man, this thread went from zero to chaos way too fast.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:Honestly, it feels like you can't trust anyone's word anymore these days...

Just a few posts back, I mentioned India (citing the BBC). According to the latest from Bloomberg, Indians are being labeled as even more "greedy" than before...

India in Talks to Increase Russian Oil Imports from Rosneft
India has bought more than 40 million barrels of Russian oil between late-February and early-May, which comes to about 20% more than flows for all of 2021, according to Bloomberg calculations based on trade data. Russian oil arrivals into India for May were at 740,000 barrels a day, up from 284,000 barrels in April and 34,000 barrels a year earlier, according to data from Kpler.

Although India’s purchases of Russian crude aren’t illegal or in breach of any sanctions, the country has come under pressure from the Biden administration and EU to stop doing business with Moscow in order to cut off Kremlin’s access to oil revenue and funds. The Asian nation has reiterated that its volume of Russian imports are minuscule as compared to Europe’s purchases, and just a tiny fraction of the country’s total consumption.

Discounted Russian oil has provided some relief to India -- which imports more than 85% of its oil -- just as inflation skyrockets alongside surging prices of everything from food to fuel. The access to cheap crude is already boosting India’s oil imports, which grew almost 16% in April from last year. The share of oil from the Eurasian region, which includes Russia, expanded to 10.6% in April versus 3.3% a year earlier, according to oil ministry data.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/india-in...neft-1.1774979

We're basically chasing simulacra and simulation here. There’s a massive gap between the wars (and those economic sanctions) we see through the selective lens of the media and what's actually happening. A simulacrum ends up feeling more real than reality itself, constantly shifting—Baudrillard style.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Melissa Rivera5 said:If those sanctions weren't actually working, they wouldn't be whining constantly and begging to have them lifted since back in 2014, let alone now. You’ve gotta be a total troll, a paid shill, or just straight-up unhinged to act like Russia's impact isn't obvious—or maybe you're just spreading that line on purpose.

Who exactly said sanctions aren't working?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
rowdymaker17 said:Data is verifiable, which is the fundamental distinction between the links you choose to visit and the ones others shove in your face for you to blindly accept. When another user posts a link as a rebuttal, they often haven't even read past the headline; in fact, the article seems to be forty percent recycled introduction from the previous one, making it little more than a cheap attempt at a counter-argument by someone who hasn't bothered to read what the other person actually wrote. But, naturally, no one is forcing you to read anything. It is entirely your choice. 👍

Look, there are valid arguments on both sides: sanctions are hitting Russia, but they're also successfully pushing back—meaning they've spent the last few years bracing for the impact and pivoting. I think both points are true at the same time.

What isn't true are those extreme takes that go viral online because people love an easy target. Specifically:
- Russia is collapsing under the weight of sanctions!
- Russia is completely immune to sanctions!

From what I've gathered so far, the sanctions are definitely having an effect, but how much damage they'll actually do in the long run? We won't know until we see it. Until then, it’s all just guesswork.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
rowdymaker17 said:That is merely half of what the top link provides. You should return to the original URL I posted, which actually details the current financial standing of Russia alongside the state of the European Union, whereas your article focuses solely on how certain EU bureaucrats believe they have dealt a massive blow to someone.

The link I provided clearly outlines the percentages regarding how much oil and gas every single European Union nation imports from Russia to meet its needs. As I have maintained in my previous comments, the European Union is staring down a logistical nightmare of the highest order, which, beyond just high raw material costs, implies even higher prices once that oil actually reaches European soil. All those member states currently in transition or struggling economically—just as the article itself notes—are going to get absolutely hammered. I would bet anything that Viktor Orbán will use this to engineer a coalition of these failing states to "attack" France and Germany. While we pretend to be "fighting" the world, we are actually just turning on one another within our own union, because anyone craving power now sees a golden opportunity to pose as a serious "threat" to France and Germany. It is no wonder people claim we are nothing more than a collection of dysfunctional nations.

It isn't the Russians who are importing oil; they aren't lacking in oil or gas, but the European Union certainly is... so perhaps try reading both articles before you continue with your commentary, as it is patently obvious you haven't read the article from your own link nor the one from mine. 👍

I honestly don't care what anyone managed to Google or what some algorithm decided to "recommend" to them. I stopped using links as proof for expert opinions a long time ago. You can counter any link with a counter-link until everyone is just arguing with themselves.

Enjoy your mass media binge! With zombies like that, nobody needs to worry about a revolution.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
rowdymaker17 said:A bit of news, stripped of all that Western or Eastern propaganda:

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...ions-on-russia

So, where does that leave us? Nowhere. Just turn out the lights and head for the exit. For those of you who can actually get ahead, I suggest you force your kids to study programming or information sciences—study them as much as you want, just so they aren't starving later.
We are staring down the barrel of a massive chain reaction. Inflation is climbing, and if oil and gas prices keep their current trajectory, we’re looking at total stagnation. People simply won't be buying cars for a while, which means dealerships will start folding, creating a whole new wave of unemployed workers. If nobody is buying and nobody is driving, then the repair shops go under next, leaving technicians and public transit drivers as the next army of the jobless, and so on, indefinitely. Even the programmers and tech experts will eventually hit a wall; once there aren't enough companies left to sell a product or a service, the demand for high-end IT skills evaporates. At least those folks have the luxury of relocating to countries outside of NATO that aren't currently dealing with this mess because they are smart enough not to shoot themselves in the foot.

God help us when we see what the next three years have in store.

‘Big blow to Putin’s war’: Sanctions approved on Russian oil, same source, zero propaganda.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
bluebison8 said:No, we don't need to regress to those dark ages. However, I am firmly in favor of a Europe possessing a unified, powerful military—one capable of telling Russia, the USA, and China to back off and stop trying to exploit the continent for their own agendas.

Basically, a United States of Europe. It just isn't going to happen.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·

brightheron64 said:Poniatowski, Shah, the Pahlavi regime... who was it that installed them all... St. Peter?

I don't want to exaggerate too much here, but here are just a handful of actual democracies that were dismantled (following completely legitimate elections!) by the US side:

The 7 Governments the U.S. Has Overthrown
https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/20...as-overthrown/

And don't even get me started on those "preventative" interventions meant to interfere with "free and democratic elections" in various other countries...

I think this gets right to the heart of why both sides are fighting. On one side, you've got the pro-Russia crowd who thinks Yanukovych (Allende) was actually running a real democracy—basically claiming the whole Euromaidan thing was just a CIA puppet show. Then you have the other side, where Russia sees itself as the force restoring order, aiming to finally chip away at American hegemony in Ukraine.

The whole Euromaidan thing was about what actual democracy looks like—real stuff. Meanwhile, you've got Russia over in Ukraine just trying to tear down the entire nation and wipe out their democratic foundation entirely.

One side sees the other as nothing more than puppets for the US—basically backing the move to oust Yanukovych (Allende) just to install Poroshenko/Zelenskyy (Pinochet)—which, in their eyes, makes this whole war justifiable.

The other side just sees them as cheerleaders for some fascist aggression against a democratic nation.

You can probably guess why society in a place like America is so fractured right now. If you ask me—it’s because we're stuck right in the middle of everything—caught between the East and the West, and drifting from an industrial past into this weird post-industrial present.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:The life expectancy is 72 compared to 78 in the US, so I don't see those extreme disparities you're pointing out.

They are certainly more prone to drinking than Americans,
though over here, people rarely get that drunk because it’s just too expensive given the purchasing power.

Besides, there are plenty of tables out there, but the WB is one of the most reliable sources, and according to them, the Russian GDP per capita is essentially identical to ours.

So, since we're going to talk about charts and sources, let's stick to the facts.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...name_desc=true

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/g...pita-worldbank

It isn't exactly easy being a tycoon in our country either—you can afford the best hospitals in the world while a retiree might wait a year just to see a doctor.

When you factor in their massive geography where hospitals can be hundreds of miles away, plus their climate, and compare it to us where you've got a clinic on every corner 31 miles and a climate that's one of the most affordable on the planet, they actually live quite a bit longer.

And if you look at the current trends, they are definitely getting the better end of the deal.

Economic activity during Putin's full term has surged from a modest $196 billion to a staggering $1,283 billion. Employment rates have climbed, and average wages have jumped elevenfold, rising from a meager $60 to the current $650. Pensions shot up from $20 to $220, which logically explains why the poverty rate was cut in half to around 13 percent. Perhaps the best indicator of the standard of living is that the average life expectancy in Russia under Putin's rule increased by a full five years, moving from 65.9 to 70.9. Unemployment has also dropped significantly, hovering around 5% recently, whereas during the Yeltsin era, it exploded to 14.5%.

Read more at: - www.vecernji.hr



So, your perception that Russia is a place of hunger and misery while life here is perfect just doesn't hold up.

Look, I’m not saying Russia is starving or anything—but when people claim they’re the sixth-largest economy on the planet, I’ve got enough data to show there are some serious cracks in that foundation.

Same goes for those rosy stats you see about the US or even smaller places; I’d rather look at the stuff that actually brings things back down to earth.

Bottom line? Life in Russia isn't a total disaster, but it could be a whole lot better if it wasn't run by a kleptocracy—basically a bunch of parasites feeding off everyone else while picking fights with sovereign nations just to stay in power. Luckily, the Russian state actually serves its people, instead of the people serving the state. They'd probably be a decent counterweight to American economic hegemony.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
urbanotter said:I'd actually love to see the source for that specific statistic you're citing.

And if we look at GDP adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, our position looks even worse, which I think provides a much more accurate picture of the actual standard of living since it accounts for inflation and the cost of daily life.

Russia is sitting at 6th while the US is down at 85th.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

Since nobody's replying, here's how GDP (PPP) breaks down per capita:

Based on 2022 data for Russia: $30,013 per capita, ranked 78th.
For America: $36,201 per capita, ranked 66th.

Where does that massive gap come from—being 6th overall but so low per capita?

The takeaway:

image

Sure, being a Russian oligarch sounds great. But for everyone else? They've got some of the highest suicide rates in Europe, and alcohol-related deaths are second only to Belarus. Men live about 10 years less than women on average, and young women die at significantly higher rates than young men.